Omicron could be the Covid end game.....

[Nyx004]

Going back to normal sounds like a fantasy, but everything has it's logical end and hope , in that case this ending will be soon. Omicron is more infectious, spreads easily but recently i read that it's easier form then Delta. Hope everything will be ok.

 

[IanSuth]

The lag is a very good point. Here https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate it says two to three weeks so the number for london on the 24th will be interesting.

I thought the effect of slower growth in the lung is that it is a lot less likely to cause severe illness?

I don't know is the honest answer (and neither does anyone)

The last decent piece I read on it said growing slower in deep lung tissue may mean 1 of 2 things, either it allows the body to beat it before it causes serious illness (in people with normal immune systems) or it might mean it takes longer for the infection to cause enough damage for hospitalisation which would change the lag from infection to hospitalisation or death which is why we couldn't just assume no growth in hospitalisation a couple of weeks after omicron infection surge meant we are free and clear

 

[DontAsk]

I don't know is the honest answer (and neither does anyone)

Exactly.

The data from South Africa might be applicable to the UK but, then again, our infection and vaccine histories, demographics are different, so it's simply not a valid assumption.

UK results are skewed by London which is a hot-bed of ****wit anti-vaxers. Even before covid, the lowest vaccination rate for Measles was in London.

 

[IanSuth]

Exactly.

The data from South Africa might be applicable to the UK but, then again, our infection and vaccine histories, demographics are different, so it's simply not a valid assumption.

UK results are skewed by London which is a hot-bed of ****wit anti-vaxers. Even before covid, the lowest vaccination rate for Measles was in London

Not sure you can draw a link between OTT London mummies into organic baby food and hemp nappies worried about disproved links to autism and whether omicron is dangerous or not

 

[paulears]

When you read that back to yourself, don’t you think it sounds a bit…well…neurotic?

Nope - realistic. This could put 30 direct and perhaps another 40 indirect people out of work for three weeks.

 

[gpietersz]

Yes, in the two sentences at the beginning of the paragraph

That only mentions covid variants. Evolution is a process of random change followed by filtering. Eventually milder covid variants will outcompete the more virulent ones.

The process has probably been slowed by lockdowns (because it increases the ratio of hospital infections to community ones.)

Viruses can evolve to be more deadly

That is a strawman argument. It debunks something some random person on Facebook said, not what I said.

I specifically said

No but viruses transmitted the way Vovid is do: https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evo-news/evolution-from-a-viruss-view/ usually do.

The article I linked to (on the website of an extremely good American univeristy) has more detail.

None of the human viruses given as examples in that article (Ebola, Norovirus, Dengue) are transmitted the same way Covid is. Neither are th two animal viruses mentioned.

 

[DontAsk]

Not sure you can draw a link between OTT London mummies into organic baby food and hemp nappies worried about disproved links to autism and whether omicron is dangerous or not

The link is that it's largely the unvaccinated who are suffering in hospital.

 

[gpietersz]

Not sure you can draw a link between OTT London mummies into organic baby food and hemp nappies worried about disproved links to autism and whether omicron is dangerous or not

There is a link because those same people are refusing the covid vaccine, which makes the population more vulnerable to any covid variant. As I said earlier:

London is very anti-vaxxer. 68% of population over 12 have had atleast one vaccine dose, compared tp 89% nationally, and only 33% have had a third dose compared to 52% nationally. So Londoners are several times more likely to suffer severe illness than the UK average.

The proportion of completely unvaccinated people in London is more than three times the proportion nationally.

 

[NickGrogan]

That only mentions covid variants. Evolution is a process of random change followed by filtering. Eventually milder covid variants will outcompete the more virulent ones.

The process has probably been slowed by lockdowns (because it increases the ratio of hospital infections to community ones.)


That is a strawman argument. It debunks something some random person on Facebook said, not what I said.

I specifically said



The article I linked to (on the website of an extremely good American univeristy) has more detail.

None of the human viruses given as examples in that article (Ebola, Norovirus, Dengue) are transmitted the same way Covid is. Neither are th two animal viruses mentioned.

You asked for a relevant example of a virus that is like Covid and has evolved to get worse.

Covid is an example, I'm not sure what could be a better example.

The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.” - Nature.com

Andrew Rambaut, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh

"Eventually milder covid variants will outcompete the more virulent ones." - UKBusinessforums.co.uk

@gpietersz

Based on your experience, can you explain why Delta was more virulent than the original Covid, Alpha and Beta and outcompeted them all?

 

[gpietersz]

Based on your experience, can you explain why Delta was more virulent than the original Covid, Alpha and Beta and outcompeted them all?

As I keep saying, a particular variant may be both more infectious and more virulent.

Delta was both more infectious and more virulent. If it has only been more virulent but not more infectious than Alpha it would not have outcompeted them.

Again, read the article I linked to.

 

[DontAsk]

Based on your experience, can you explain why Delta was more virulent than the original Covid, Alpha and Beta and outcompeted them all?

I think the clue was in the word "eventually".

 

[NickGrogan]

I think the clue was in the word "eventually".

For me the clue is Myth.

 

[MBE2017]

Nicola Sturgeon has just introduced a three week restriction in Scotland which basically cancels the New Years Eve celebrations of any decent size. A max of 500 at outdoor events, have they never attended Edinburgh’s celebrations in the past?

Cannot see this being popular.

 

[gpietersz]

For me the clue is Myth.

So you are saying that the Museum of Paleontologyt at the University of California Berkeley has collaborated with these organisations:

About - Understanding Evolution

Understanding Evolution (UE) is a non-commercial, education website, for teaching and learning about the science of evolutionary biology. This site is here to help you understand what evolution is, how it works, and how it factors into your life. This site is a project of the University of...

evolution.berkeley.edu

To spread myths?

 

[NickGrogan]

Nicola Sturgeon has just introduced a three week restriction in Scotland which basically cancels the New Years Eve celebrations of any decent size. A max of 500 at outdoor events, have they never attended Edinburgh’s celebrations in the past?

Cannot see this being popular.

Edinburgh's official events have all been cancelled already.

 

[NickGrogan]

So you are saying that the Museum of Paleontologyt at the University of California Berkeley has collaborated with these organisations:

About - Understanding Evolution

Understanding Evolution (UE) is a non-commercial, education website, for teaching and learning about the science of evolutionary biology. This site is here to help you understand what evolution is, how it works, and how it factors into your life. This site is a project of the University of...

evolution.berkeley.edu

To spread myths?

The assertion that viruses evolve to become milder “is a bit of a myth”, says Rambaut. “The reality is far more complex.” - Nature.com

Andrew Rambaut, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh

123,000 Citations.

Attends Sage meetings

Published the genome of Covid for the first time on 11th January 2020

His research at Edinburgh University is focused on the evolutionary and epidemiological study of viral pathogens of humans and animals.


I'm going to assume that he knows a bit more than an article aimed at the general public and written in 2007

 

[cjd]

Scottish data now showing that Omicron may be two thirds less harmful (likely to require hospitalisation) than Delta. But ten times more likely to cause re-infection. English data is imminent.

Maybe some good news

Covid Scotland: Omicron risk of hospitalisation may be two-thirds lower than Delta, study suggests

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 may present a two-thirds lower risk of hospitalisation than Delta, a ground-breaking study by Scottish scientists has suggested.

www.scotsman.com

 

[MikeJ]

Edinburgh's official events have all been cancelled already.

Edinburgh's events are often cancelled. Even before Covid, the weather seemed to intervene quite often.

 

[gpietersz]

I'm going to assume that he knows a bit more than an article aimed at the general public and written in 2007

An article endorsed by a whole lot of bodies. its clearly the consensus view.

In the article in Nature an evolutionary biologist takes much the same view:

“The virus doesn’t want to put someone in bed and make them sick enough that they’re not encountering a number of other people,”

Even Rambaut does not say the view that viruses evolve to be milder is wrong. He says "reality is more complex" - i.e. its not a stright line and it only applies to viruses transmitted in a particular way.

 

[Justin Smith]

Scottish data now showing that Omicron may be two thirds less harmful (likely to require hospitalisation) than Delta. But ten times more likely to cause re-infection. English data is imminent.

Maybe some good news

Covid Scotland: Omicron risk of hospitalisation may be two-thirds lower than Delta, study suggests

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 may present a two-thirds lower risk of hospitalisation than Delta, a ground-breaking study by Scottish scientists has suggested.

www.scotsman.com

I still think Omicron will be the end game one way or the other. The way it's going it will be a better rather than worse, outcome.
When I say the end game I don't mean for Covid, that'll be around forever, I mean for the attempted suppression of it.

 

[fisicx]

When I say the end game I don't mean for Covid, that'll be around forever, I mean for the attempted suppression of it.

Nobody has ever attempted to suppress covid. It's all been about flattening the curve. And that has worked because most people have heeded the sensible advice over the last two years.

 

[Justin Smith]

I see that this thread is going off track AGAIN, and again it is the OP who is doing this. Perhaps just using this thread as a soapbox to peddle his own views.

In the real world people are scared. This is not helped by seeing others going around ignoring the safety advice. Seeing people walking around ignoring social distancing and not wearing masks. Now it does not matter what you believe, nor whether masks do or do not help. What matters is what a significant number of the public believe. If they continue to feel unsafe then they will continue to stay away from shops and hospitality and those businesses will suffer.

Omicron is just another varient. There will be more. Indeed the more people infected, the more people unvaccinated, the more mutations will arise and the more varients will be identified. This will never stop. So there is no "end game". Life has changed and will continue to change. There is no going back.

You, and they, won't get over your fear if you are surrounded by people in masks all staying away from each other will you ?
End game refers to getting back to normal, not the end of Covid, that will never end and we'll all end up getting it. Which will be a good thing, perhaps people like yourself might get over your fear once you have had it.

Nobody has ever attempted to suppress covid. It's all been about flattening the curve. And that has worked because most people have heeded the sensible advice over the last two years.

Errr, that's a contradiction in terms.

The evidence about how well Covid has been suppressed by non-pharmacological is scant. How else would you explain the fact Scotland & Wales have had harsher Covid measures than us yet the same or worse outcomes.

 

[kulture]

You, and they, won't get over your fear if you are surrounded by people in masks all staying away from each other will you ?
End game refers to getting back to normal, not the end of Covid, that will never end and we'll all end up getting it. Which will be a good thing, perhaps people like yourself might get over your fear once you have had it.

I do object to people putting words in my mouth and assuming feelings that I don't have, just to make a stupid argument.

I personally do not fear COVID. I do however know of many who do. Some no doubt because of what they hear on the TV. Others have real fears because they or some of their family are vulnerable to COVID and likely to be worse affected than perhaps you or I. I also believe in civic responsibility and fell that it is no problem to wear a mask in order to protect the vulnerable and others from the possibility that I might actualy have it.

No amount of posts on forums or social media is going to change the very real fears that some people have. The world has changed. There is no "getting back to normal".

 

[fisicx]

The evidence about how well Covid has been suppressed by non-pharmacological is scant. How else would you explain the fact Scotland & Wales have had harsher Covid measures than us yet the same or worse outcomes.

You are once again cherry picking data. It's quite clear from all your posts on the subject you don't understand epidemiology yet you make bold and rash statements.

There is no simple answer to anything relating to covid yet you try to make it so.

You can't suppress covid. What you can so is suppress the transmission of the virus. In doing so you reduce the concurrent numbers requiring medical treatment.

I repeat what I posted on Tuesday:

@Justin Smith - if you feel so strongly about all this why aren’t you doing something about it? Are you joining in all the protests. Are you publishing your finding on social media? Do you have posters in the shop window? Have you spoken to your MP?

If you really believe everyone has got it wrong don't post here. Go and do something about it.

 

[gpietersz]

An interesting quite from one of the scientists quoted in the Nature article:

"“To talk of 5,000 deaths a day is a very high number. It is risky to push apocalyptic scenarios that are highly unlikely to happen,” said Professor Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute."

and another interesting one

“It is bad science and I think they’re being irresponsible. They have a duty to reflect the true risks but this is just headline grabbing,” said Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the UK Vaccine Task Force.

Access Restricted

Nobody has ever attempted to suppress covid. It's all been about flattening the curve.

I do not think that in the UK (and many other countries) governments have been clear what they were attempting to do. The first lockdown was explicilty about flateening the curve, but the government denied the end point was herd immunity (or high enough immunity to reduce it to below infections epidemic proportion) through infection, which is what would have happened without vaccines.

IN some other countries (China, New Zealand, Vietnam...) the aim is complete suppressed, modified to be supression until vaccination is complete against all know variants.

 

[DontAsk]

Prof (lock/pants)down Ferguson, has form, and is well known for apocalyptic forecasts. Best ignored or, at best, taken with a large pinch of salt.

 

[NickGrogan]

An interesting quite from one of the scientists quoted in the Nature article:

They seem to know what they're talking about, which really helps.

Ferguson has made many predictions and they're always way off, sometimes by several orders of magnitude.

Omicron has made herd immunity a problem as it is infecting people who've already had the previous versions.

If the next versions don't infect people that have had Omicron, this could be good news as its spreading widely. But if a later version reinfects, it could all go round again.

 

[NickGrogan]

You, and they, won't get over your fear if you are surrounded by people in masks all staying away from each other will you ?
End game refers to getting back to normal, not the end of Covid, that will never end and we'll all end up getting it. Which will be a good thing, perhaps people like yourself might get over your fear once you have had it.


Errr, that's a contradiction in terms.

The evidence about how well Covid has been suppressed by non-pharmacological is scant. How else would you explain the fact Scotland & Wales have had harsher Covid measures than us yet the same or worse outcomes.

Simple, the restrictions aren't that harsh and plenty of people are ignoring them.

This is normal, there's no going back.

It's like Brexit, it can't be undone.

 

[MikeJ]

Up another 100 today. London is the main location for Omicron, which is why I'm focussed on that. Based on the timing and symptoms, that's probably what I have.

Now over 2000, up another 100 today.

 

[Forgot password]

SAGE cried wolf. Routine healthcare and operations were cancelled. Care homes shut their doors. Kids missed end of term fun. The run up to Christmas was ruined. Big Pharma sold more jabs.
Yet omicron is mild, as South Africa always said.
This should be a watershed moment.
They wanted to shut us down for Xmas but they knew they couldn’t get it to stick as people ignoring the rules is worse for government than doing nothing... so New Years it is then.. watch this space.

 

[gpietersz]

Yet omicron is mild, as South Africa always said.

I do not understand why people here are so dissmissive of South African doctors and scientists.

 

[Forgot password]

Once you realise it’s all in the script it’s easy to see.

Your government and media have lied to you constantly... ask yourself why.

 

[gpietersz]

Your government and media have lied to you constantly... ask yourself why.

Because both are the clueless and the media sensationalises eveything.

That is it. No conspiraces, few deliberate lies, just lack of knowledge and producing what sells.

The lies are coming from the anti-vaxxer crowd. The British government has not been as dishonest about covid as Trump or Macron.

 

[momo3HC]

Omicron really could be the Covid end game. More spreadable but less deadly. All this leads to a normal virus end life.​

 

[Ozzy]

No conspiraces

It never ceases to amaze me how some adults still believe things like this are all a conspiracy. I have a picture in my head of them sat in their parents basement wearing tin foil hats, quite entertaining really.

 

[alan1302]

Your government and media have lied to you constantly... ask yourself why.

I will ask you - why have they? How do they benefit?

The government has spent billions on it - so why would they lie?

 

[Ozzy]

so why would they lie?

Some people believe the vaccine contains 5G transmitting nano bots that track our activity and allow the Government to control our minds, that's why.
These are the same people who believe the lock downs and covid restrictions are all part of some worldwide conspiracy to control the human race. They think if they repeat it enough on internet enough people will believe them ??.

 

[MBE2017]

Not surprising many believe conspiracy theories when they are constantly lied too, remember, two jabs only required, then you needed a booster, the fourth jab seems to be starting in March next year. Anyone want to place a bet that will be the last?

Meanwhile today I personally met the first NHS staff member I know who had just resigned, refusing to take the jab, which becomes mandatory for all NHS personnel in April next year.

It felt a strange way to end the year, seeing this tearful woman giving up her job, she doesn’t come into direct contact with the public, and had the public clapping for her earlier in the year, during a much more dangerous version of covid, when no one cared if she had been jabbed or not to do her job.

Not sure how many will follow her example, but there are plenty of NHS staff very resentful, but come April they might need to lose their objections on economic grounds alone.

 

[Ozzy]

Not surprising many believe conspiracy theories when they are constantly lied too

Being lied to is one thing, and as a sensible adult you can dismiss that. Also seeing incompetence and stupidity you can also dismiss that rather than obsess over it. Both these things you can see and make a sensible decision yourself and get on with your life. I don’t believe half the stuff the Government says, and I’ve lost confidence in them for setting any good example. Oh well, doesn’t mean I’m going to take any chances with people at risk. Just like I will never ride my motorbike without full protective clothing.

I don’t see how any of the Government behaviour can lead to such irrational, obsessive and to a point crazy behaviour.

 

[IanSuth]

Not surprising many believe conspiracy theories when they are constantly lied too, remember, two jabs only required, then you needed a booster, the fourth jab seems to be starting in March next year. Anyone want to place a bet that will be the last?

Meanwhile today I personally met the first NHS staff member I know who had just resigned, refusing to take the jab, which becomes mandatory for all NHS personnel in April next year.

It felt a strange way to end the year, seeing this tearful woman giving up her job, she doesn’t come into direct contact with the public, and had the public clapping for her earlier in the year, during a much more dangerous version of covid, when no one cared if she had been jabbed or not to do her job.

Not sure how many will follow her example, but there are plenty of NHS staff very resentful, but come April they might need to lose their objections on economic grounds alone.

Not sure why, my daughter is doing a Physiotherapy degree - to start the course she had to have already had or commit to have before the end of yr1 the following (for her this meant riding a 125 motorcycle down the A40 in sleet during the Feb lockdown to get one of the Hep injections which is more dangerous than the vaccines) - obviously some are either/or (like BCG scar OR TB Screen) - failure to get these meant failing yr1 of the course and being unable to enter yr2 (when placements start) - adding Covid jabs to it is minor really

Occupational Health Vaccinations​

• Hepatitis B (full course to include 3 doses plus post-vaccine blood test)
• Hepatitis B booster
• Hepatitis A monodose
• Measles, Mumps & Rubella (MMR) per course of 2 doses
• Varicella (per course of 2 doses)
• BCG Scar Check
• TB Screen—to include mantoux test/reading and BCG
• Polio, Tetanus and Diphtheria
• Typhoid (per course of 2 doses)
• Influenza (FLU)