Omicron could be the Covid end game.....

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Justin Smith

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Omicron may be the end game for Covid. Think about it :

Worst case : If Omicron really is far more infectious - as it appears to be - but just as deadly as Delta (though the vaccines and previous infections still prevent most serious illness) we would just have to accept it because we cannot do anything about it short of a full lockdown which would probably still not work but which will never fly again anyway, so we may as just get back to normal. So, as regards trying to suppress Covid in any significant way, it's over.

On the other hand, if it turns out to be significantly less infectious then two things result
1 - People won't take any notice of those crying wolf next time, so it's over
2 - It will be a God send : natural infection immunity (or increased immunity after a vaccine) at low risk, so it's over.

So make your investment decisions !
 

kulture

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    It will never go back to “normal “. People’s attitude has changed. People’s behaviour has changed. Whilst perhaps the law and restrictions may go back to the way it was but the world has changed.

    You have to look at reality to see what is going on. Party booking cancellations everywhere. Hospitality in dire straits. This is a people led change and not a mandated restriction. So to say that this is the “end game” is hopelessly misguided.
     
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    I

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    It will never go back to “normal “. People’s attitude has changed. People’s behaviour has changed. Whilst perhaps the law and restrictions may go back to the way it was but the world has changed.

    You have to look at reality to see what is going on. Party booking cancellations everywhere. Hospitality in dire straits. This is a people led change and not a mandated restriction. So to say that this is the “end game” is hopelessly misguided.

    Have to disagree here. England was locking itself down from the bubonic plague throughout the middle ages. Nothing is permanent. Thankfully.
     
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    MBE2017

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    I heard inbound tourism to the UK due to the lockdowns, restrictions etc over the last year has reduced to 14% of the normal figure. How pubs, clubs, theatres, cinemas, restaurants, hotels, B&B’s etc plus thousands of associated jobs in airlines etc can survive, it is hard to find much hope.

    Much of the UK population has been brainwashed into total fear, to see idiots wearing paper face masks which do nothing regarding protection, whilst driving in their own vehicles on their own. Until people choose to live, rather than politely comply and merely exist, things will not change. The authorities love taking more control and power over the people, unfortunately we like most countries have too many sheep and very few lions.
     
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    How many pubs and clubs are viable businesses at the best of times? Every year I hear about pubs closing on a daily basis, long before covid came along. Maybe their time has come and gone?

    If we believe anything about climate change then reducing the amount of inbound and outbound tourism is a good thing, yes businesses will have to adapt, but is there any real benefit to the UK economy of millions of people going off to Spain to get sunburnt and drunk?

    If they stayed here and got drunk, the pubs, clubs, etc would be thriving.

    What extra controls have the government taken, that they didn't have in 2019 for example?
     
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    Lucan Unlordly

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    2 - It will be a God send : natural infection immunity (or increased immunity after a vaccine) at low risk, so it's over.
    Are there any statistics, or does anybody on here have personal knowledge, to support the theory that once you've had it you are immune to getting it again?

    On a separate note, I'm hearing of positive tests from people who have only taken one because their neighbours, sons sister in law was in the same shop they visited a week last Sunday! No symptoms whatsoever, but driven by fear and a sense of public duty, they would otherwise have carried on as normal.

    I'm not and have never been a sceptic when it comes to Covid but can't help feeling that Omicron, which Chris Whitty is reported to have said is likely to decline as quickly as it surges, is a good way of breeding caution at a time when a formal Xmas lock down wouldn't rub.
     
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    "Conclusion Population-level evidence suggests that the Omicron variant is associated with substantial ability to evade immunity from prior infection. In contrast, there is no population-wide epidemiological evidence of immune escape associated with the Beta or Delta variants. This finding has important implications for public health planning, particularly in countries like South Africa with high rates of immunity from prior infection. Urgent questions remain regarding whether Omicron is also able to evade vaccine-induced immunity and the potential implications of reduced immunity to infection on protection against severe disease and death."

    Omicron can infect people that have hard previous infections, the other versions like Delta can't
     
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    Lucan Unlordly

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    "Conclusion Population-level evidence suggests that the Omicron variant is associated with substantial ability to evade immunity from prior infection. In contrast, there is no population-wide epidemiological evidence of immune escape associated with the Beta or Delta variants. This finding has important implications for public health planning, particularly in countries like South Africa with high rates of immunity from prior infection. Urgent questions remain regarding whether Omicron is also able to evade vaccine-induced immunity and the potential implications of reduced immunity to infection on protection against severe disease and death."

    Omicron can infect people that have hard previous infections, the other versions like Delta can't
    Unless I'm mistaken and am mis-reading the sentence below, you are interpreting that article differently to me?
    In contrast, the recent spread of the Omicron variant has been associated with a decrease in the hazard coefficient for primary infection and an increase in reinfection hazard coefficient.

    Does this not mean that primary infection is less of an issue, but that re-infection is?

    Also, from the section you've quoted: In contrast, there is no population-wide epidemiological evidence of immune escape associated with the Beta or Delta variants.
    Does this not mean that they don't have sufficient evidence yet?
     
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    I think it means Omicron is less infectious to people who've not had Covid yet, and more infectious to those that have had Covid before. Overall it is more infectious.

    Regarding Beta and Delta, they haven't seen reinfection, based on what they've studied so far. I presume they've studied it a lot, so you probably can't get reinfected with Beta or Delta.
     
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    thetiger2015

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    I'm not and have never been a sceptic when it comes to Covid but can't help feeling that Omicron, which Chris Whitty is reported to have said is likely to decline as quickly as it surges, is a good way of breeding caution at a time when a formal Xmas lock down wouldn't rub.

    They cannot do another official lockdown. People would demand furlough and businesses would demand government backed loans/support.

    They're going to strangle businesses without needing any new laws. They can now use the media to get what they want.

    Bookings in restaurants are dropping rapidly, lots of pubs will be closed permanently after this Christmas and they will receive the square root of ZERO support...because it's not an official lockdown.

    If anyone thinks this is the end, after they've spent billions on mRNA tech, testing kits, PPE and mobile app development....no chance!
     
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    thetiger2015

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    The main thing about Omicron is that it has re kindled the silly.

    We can't have a sensible debate about it.

    Personally, it seems that the only solution is total lockdown, which is not something I would like to see happen. So my question is, what is the score if we just crack on?

    The 'silly' you mentioned, won't allow the 'crack on' you've mentioned.

    People are wearing seven masks and bin bags on their heads, to save them from the mystical Lord Omicron and his devilish death stare.
     
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    fisicx

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    Just like before it's not about the number of people getting infected. It's all about the number of those who end up in hospital. Sensible precautions will reduce your chance of getting infected and then passing it on to others. This in turn will lower the number of people admitted to hospital.

    Look after yourself and you will in turn help everyone else.
     
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    Its probably too late for the lockdown to make much difference now, and they won't lockdown before Christmas anyway.

    Business are already asking for support and I've seen furlough mentioned a few times and I know some businesses that are planning on it coming back.

    @thetiger2015 Why do "they" want to strangle businesses and what do you think the next step is?
     
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    simon field

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    Once again, as before, we have the benefit of knowing who the vulnerable are. Older people, people with co-morbidities, those already on end-of-life care, the obese, etc etc.

    There are exceptions to any rule, and the tales of the ‘mega fit athlete’ or the ‘young healthy mum’ who sadly succumb to the worst case scenario of this virus are thankfully rare - but those are the ones that get reported on and that stick in peoples minds.

    Thankfully this much milder version looks like it’s doing it’s thing and giving lots of people some nice robust natural immunity. A tiny minority will perish and that’s very sad, but I’m optimistic about things going forward.

    Life never was risk-free and it never will be imho.
     
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    Just like before it's not about the number of people getting infected. It's all about the number of those who end up in hospital. Sensible precautions will reduce your chance of getting infected and then passing it on to others.

    It seems to be mainly the unvaccinated who are ending up in hospital so I don't know why HMG and NHS aren't making a much bigger song and dance about it.

    What it needs is a couple of Premiership footballers to end up in hospital to persuade people to get the vaccination as they have more influence than politicians
     
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    simon field

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    It seems to be mainly the unvaccinated who are ending up in hospital so I don't know why HMG and NHS aren't making a much bigger song and dance about it.

    What it needs is a couple of Premiership footballers to end up in hospital to persuade people to get the vaccination as they have more influence than politicians
    I agree with that Ian, but what we don’t seem to be getting are the numbers of those (unvaccinated) who unfortunately end up in hospital - how many have underlying serious health problems? Surely those figures must be known?

    And your point on getting vaccinated - I don’t see that as any different to trying to educate people to eat healthily, not to smoke, take regular exercise, etc etc. There are many who simply ‘don’t want to’.
     
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    simon field

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    In a week where two of our biggest banks, HSBC and NatWest have been fined for money laundering I can't help but reflect on big business, and pharmaceutical companies in particular as having anything other than the bottom line at the top of their list of considerations throughout the pandemic.
    I agree. And the same fingers are in many of the same pies.

    Vanguard & Black Rock anyone?
     
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    what we don’t seem to be getting are the numbers of those (unvaccinated) who unfortunately end up in hospital - how many have underlying serious health problems? Surely those figures must be known?
    Of course the figures are known and I have no idea why they are not disclosed rather than the meaningless statistics churned out solemnly every night by HMG and BBC.

    I read Kefalonia Pulse every now and again and they publish daily the same stats as us plus the age groups of the people hospitalised, whether or not they have any underlying medical conditions and the percentage split between vaccinated and unvaccinated and similar details for those that have died so if the Greeks can publish meaningful stats daily why can't we?
     
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    IanSuth

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    Last I read, Omicron is 70x faster breeding in bronchial tissue but slower than Delta in lower lung tissue, that makes it more infectious (a lesser amount is enough to breed fast enough for you not to fight it off plus you breath more of it out) BUT the jury is still out on whether the slower growing in deep lung tissue is good news as could mean less severe or just as bad as may just delay infection to hospitalisation.

    Also there is still the risk of hospitalisation/death due to cytokine storm where basically your body's immune system over reacts and kills you - that is a constant % of infection whichever variant and hits younger people more
     
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    Justin Smith

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    It will never go back to “normal “. People’s attitude has changed. People’s behaviour has changed. Whilst perhaps the law and restrictions may go back to the way it was but the world has changed.

    You have to look at reality to see what is going on. Party booking cancellations everywhere. Hospitality in dire straits. This is a people led change and not a mandated restriction. So to say that this is the “end game” is hopelessly misguided.
    I would agree with you that people's risk aversion (historically this has been going up for about 150 to 200 years) has gone into the stratosphere, but they are worrying (irrationally really) even more now because the government have told them to. They were, as you say, booking parties and all sorts before, so, if the government had not tried to worry them people, the vast majority anyway, would be behaving more or less normally now.

    What do you mean back to normal? What is normal to you?

    It's been 2 years and isn't slowing down. For many people, this is normal.
    For too many people this is normal, would be more accurate.....

    Are there any statistics, or does anybody on here have personal knowledge, to support the theory that once you've had it you are immune to getting it again?
    Increasingly you can get it again, but less seriously, which is what matters.

    Omicron can infect people that have hard previous infections, the other versions like Delta can't
    That is wrong, I know people who have had the previous variants more than once, though it is relatively rare.

    But the whole point of this thread is that of Omicron is wildly infectious there is nothing we can do to stop it, so what is the point in messing about ruining the economy and people's lives for very little, if any, benefit ? The government must know that and so that is why I am speculating that this could be the end game. If we had a Labour government things might be different because they are all about virtue signalling even if it's not going to achieve anything and might cost Billions of pounds, but, fortunately, they are not in power.
     
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    IanSuth

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    That is wrong, I know people who have had the previous variants more than once, though it is relatively rare.

    But the whole point of this thread is that of Omicron is wildly infectious there is nothing we can do to stop it, so what is the point in messing about ruining the economy and people's lives for very little, if any, benefit ? The government must know that and so that is why I am speculating that this could be the end game. If we had a Labour government things might be different because they are all about virtue signalling even if it's not going to achieve anything and might cost Billions of pounds, but, fortunately, they are not in power.

    I believe the idea again is to flatten the curve - if 1m people get it and 1% are hospitalised that is still 10k admissions and if at the same time loads of healthcare workers are off sick themselves...

    It is not about stopping people getting it - it is about somehow spreading out the healthcare needs of those getting it - remember this is now doubling faster than every 2 days - do the maths
     
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    Justin Smith

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    They cannot do another official lockdown. People would demand furlough and businesses would demand government backed loans/support.

    They're going to strangle businesses without needing any new laws. They can now use the media to get what they want.

    Bookings in restaurants are dropping rapidly, lots of pubs will be closed permanently after this Christmas and they will receive the square root of ZERO support...because it's not an official lockdown.

    If anyone thinks this is the end, after they've spent billions on mRNA tech, testing kits, PPE and mobile app development....no chance!
    The only way we will get out of this is when the government cannot afford it anymore and/or when people have had enough of all this suppression. Thus, though I think it's unfair on hospitality that they have been shafted, I do NOT want furlough (or anything like it) bought back, for two reasons :

    1 - It encourages people to think Lockdown isn't too bad, some people probably welcome it (80% of their salary and no work required).

    2 - We cannot afford it, the economy is due for a hell of a comeupance as it is.

    If they reintroduce furlough be very worried.....

    I believe the idea again is to flatten the curve - if 1m people get it and 1% are hospitalised that is still 10k admissions and if at the same time loads of healthcare workers are off sick themselves...

    It is not about stopping people getting it - it is about somehow spreading out the healthcare needs of those getting it - remember this is now doubling faster than every 2 days - do the maths
    "March 2020, this lockdown is for three weeks to flatten the curve".

    So no, I am not interested in any "flattening of the curve" justification.

    In my view, the real problem will be the number needing to self isolate and the knock on effect on staffing levels in the NHS, rather than increased numbers being hospitalised.
    This is absolutely true.
    I had a bad cold this week and it did occur to me I might have Covid. Ironically, in some ways, I want to catch it because I believe we will all get it sooner or later and I'd rather just get it over with. BUT if I had Covid it would screw my Wife's social life (so I'd really get it in the neck ! ) and my lad's last week in school, plus I wouldn't be able to go to work*. It's THAT which I really wouldn't want. Once we stop all of this requirement to isolate nonsense I'll be very relieved.

    * Well actually I would go to work (assuming the Covid wasn't too bad) but on my own, which is no fun.
     
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    Justin Smith

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    Once again, as before, we have the benefit of knowing who the vulnerable are. Older people, people with co-morbidities, those already on end-of-life care, the obese, etc etc.

    There are exceptions to any rule, and the tales of the ‘mega fit athlete’ or the ‘young healthy mum’ who sadly succumb to the worst case scenario of this virus are thankfully rare - but those are the ones that get reported on and that stick in peoples minds.

    Thankfully this much milder version looks like it’s doing it’s thing and giving lots of people some nice robust natural immunity. A tiny minority will perish and that’s very sad, but I’m optimistic about things going forward.

    Life never was risk-free and it never will be imho.
    Even older sicker people are at relatively low risk from Covid so long as they have been jabbed.
    Don;t get me wrong they are at much higher chance of dying from Covid than a fit younger person, but their chances of dying of anything else are also far higher, so, relatively speaking, they are at no higher risk.
     
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    Ozzy

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    By your same logic there @Justin Smith I shouldn’t bother wearing a crash helmet and leathers when I go out on my motorbike, because relatively speaking on a motorbike I’m already at a higher chance of dying on a motorbike than when driving any car.
     
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    Justin Smith

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    One thing that does puzzle me on this forum. One of the main reasons I work for myself is not the money that's very much secondary, it's because I don't like being told what to do. That is particularly the case when I can see no logic to it and I think it is the wrong thing to do, and almost all the business owners I know are like that. In fact I can remember the moment when I realised I had to work for myself was when a colleague of mine who was by common consent rather useless but was an infamous CBL (Creepy Bum Lick) was promoted over me, whereas I told it how it was even if it was not what the bosses wanted to hear.
    Why am I mentioning that on a Covid thread ? Well it surprises me there are so many on here who seem more than happy to do what they are told over this when, basically, we are being bossed about more, by a country mile more, than we have ever been bossed about before. And I would have thought that for independent minded people who intrinsically disliked being bossed about the case for that "bossing" would have to be overwhelming, and it quite obviously is not. Even less so now almost everyone at significant risk from Covid has been vaccinated....

    By your same logic there @Justin Smith I shouldn’t bother wearing a crash helmet and leathers when I go out on my motorbike, because relatively speaking on a motorbike I’m already at a higher chance of dying on a motorbike than when driving any car.
    Speaking as an ex motorbiker I'd have thought the increase in risk of death from not wearing a helmet whilst riding would be huge, plus 25% or even more ? So we have a massive increase in one's chances of avoiding death for a pretty small change in ones life (wearing a helmet).
    The increase in risk of death (over and above ones basic risk of death at any particular age) by trying to avoid contact with Covid - which, unless one literally wants to stay in ones house - must be minimal, even if one ignores the fact we are probably all going to end up catching it anyway. Let's talk an 80 year old in relatively poor health but who is vaccinated, probably triple vaccinated, the risk of death from a Covid infection must be way better than 1 in 100. But an 80 year old in poor health's chances of dying in any one year must be high, maybe as bad as 1 in 5 ? Thus, relatively speaking, Covid isn't even worth worrying about, and certainly not limiting their lives to avoid.
     
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    fisicx

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    You are told what to do. Almost everything you do is legislated. You have little free choice.
     
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    Ozzy

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    One of the main reasons I work for myself is not the money that's very much secondary, it's because I don't like being told what to do.
    I'm the opposite. Now I work for myself I have more people telling me what to do than I did before. I happened to previously work for a great boss who helped me start my first business on the road to here.
    The money is very important as it provides security for my family, if it wasn't for money I wouldn't be doing this.
    So we have a massive increase in one's chances of avoiding death for a pretty small change in ones life (wearing a helmet).
    Just like wearing a mask for example ;). Albeit the mask does not protect the wearer as we all know, we wear it for those around us.
    an 80 year old in poor health's chances of dying in any one year must be high, maybe as bad as 1 in 5 ? Thus, relatively speaking, Covid isn't even worth worrying about, and certainly not limiting their lives to avoid.
    I think I understand where you are heading now. To line up all the old and infirm people in front of a firing squad and be done with it, after all a few bullets might miss yes?
    Whether we like it or not, we the public and the media ripped the Government to pieces over inaction and taking risks at the start of the pandemic. Some would argue we've got what we asked for now, an abundance of caution.
     
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    Justin Smith

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    Just like wearing a mask for example ;). Albeit the mask does not protect the wearer as we all know, we wear it for those around us.
    It's not the same at all, forcing everyone to wear face mask is in no way similar to mandating helmets for motorcyclists. Though, TBH, everything that has happened with Covid is making me reassess my attitude to all that kind of stuff. If the bikers kills himself what business is it of ours ? We don't force people to lose weight and that would save far more lives and pressure of the NHS.

    The evidence for the efficacy of face masks in the real world is very weak anyway :

    Do masks and vaccine passports prevent Covid illness and deaths ? (3 Dec 21)

    England : No mask mandate since July (to 30th Nov), no vaccine passport (to 10th Dec)
    Scotland : Mask mandate still in force from last year, vaccine passport since 1st Oct (enforced since 18th Oct)
    Wales : Mask mandate still in force from last year, vaccine passport since 11th Oct

    Patients in hospital with a positive Covid test per million popn (on 3rd Dec 21, the last date for which the change in mandate cannot have had any effect)
    England : 103.7
    Scotland : 118.5
    Wales : 141.3

    I'm the opposite. Now I work for myself I have more people telling me what to do than I did before. I happened to previously work for a great boss who helped me start my first business on the road to here.
    How can that possibly be ?
     
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    Ozzy

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    Though, TBH, everything that has happened with Covid is making me reassess my attitude to all that kind of stuff. If the bikers kills himself what business is it of ours ?
    I assume you have picked up a Christmas sherry a little early in the day. Go home sir, you've had enough for one day ?.
    Just in case you are actually serious, which I don't for one minute think you are, but if you are serious...if you saw someone about to jump off a bridge to kill themselves would you try and talk them down (like I and many others would) or would you cheer them on, or perhaps even give them a push?
    How can that possibly be ?
    Again, I'm not sure if your are actually being serious here but just in case you are and that sherry is taking hold ?.
    As an employee I had one boss who told me what I needed to do, that was it.
    Now I run my own business I have many more stakeholders to deal with, ranging from my investors and shareholders, board of directors and chairman, to customers to regulatory bodies and more. Sometimes what I'm being told to do conflicts with one of the other "bosses" and I have to juggle them all.
    It was so much simpler being an employee with a boss and leaving my boss to deal with all those.
     
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    fisicx

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    Justin Smith

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    Again, I'm not sure if your are actually being serious here but just in case you are and that sherry is taking hold ?.
    As an employee I had one boss who told me what I needed to do, that was it.
    Now I run my own business I have many more stakeholders to deal with, ranging from my investors and shareholders, board of directors and chairman, to customers to regulatory bodies and more. Sometimes what I'm being told to do conflicts with one of the other "bosses" and I have to juggle them all.
    It was so much simpler being an employee with a boss and leaving my boss to deal with all those.
    There's a MASSIVE difference.
    Essentially, now I am my own boss, I do what people want me to because I (usually) want to, it is my choice. If I did not want to do anything in particular I would not have to do it, though I may have to contend with possible negative ramifications to my business.
    But, essentially, nobody is telling me what to do.

    I certainly agree life is much simpler when you are employed by someone else.

    If that's true, why do surgeons wear them [masks] ?
    That's more or less a strawman argument. Comparing surgeons wearing medical grade masks for a relatively short time with the general populations' half arsed attempt to comply with the law (and/or peer pressure) with their cloth, or old, or possibly damp mask. I saw a bloke with a big bushy beard wearing a mask on the way here ! What possible good can that be doing ? ! ?
    But, interestingly, even countries with draconian facemask mandates (medical grade and often mandated outside) still have not beaten Covid with them. In fact Peru is the worst for Covid deaths in the world.
    That said, I am still prepared to believe they might make some minute difference, but, in my view, it is no where near enough to make their mandate acceptable in a free country.
    It's about proportionality, the worst example of that being Labour journalist and campaigner Mike Buckley who said on the radio back in June "all secondary school pupils [all 3 million of them] wearing masks would be worth it to save one life". To rational people that's ballcox, but some, no doubt, would agree with him.

    I assume you have picked up a Christmas sherry a little early in the day. Go home sir, you've had enough for one day ?.
    Just in case you are actually serious, which I don't for one minute think you are, but if you are serious...if you saw someone about to jump off a bridge to kill themselves would you try and talk them down (like I and many others would) or would you cheer them on, or perhaps even give them a push?
    Again that's is a completely different situation, comparing someone choosing not to wear a helmet to someone about to commit suicide. On the subject of the latter, it is not always an irrational thing to do anyway. How about a bloke, a keen sportsman, has a car accident and in it his only child gets killed and he loses a leg. A few weeks later his wife tells him she wants a divorce, and, because they have been together along time, she will get half the house and half his business. Him deciding "I've had enough of this" is perfectly rational. Who are we to tell him not to do it ?
    But, in any case, you have avoided my point, if it is acceptable to force bikers to wear helmets because it is good for their lifespan (essentially good for their health) and it will save the country and the NHS lots of money if he avoids getting killed or seriously injured, why do we let people eat themselves to obesity ?
     
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    Ozzy

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  • Feb 9, 2003
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    There's a MASSIVE difference.
    Essentially, now I am my own boss
    We are going to have to agree to disagree you are your own boss and you won't see all the stakeholders involved your business as I do.
    That very statement "I am my own boss" in my opinion is the problem that causes so many people to start their own business with unrealistic expectations. People who perhaps should not do so go ahead with these dreams of world domination from watching Dragons Den and so on.
    because it is good for their lifespan (essentially good for their health)
    ...because their lifespan has nothing to do with it as far as I am concerned. Yes it is in the legislation, but that is not my point. I am referring to all the stakeholders impacted by the event should it go wrong. The emergency services who have to clear up the body parts, the other road users and witnesses and the mental trauma they suffer. Friends and families, all these stakeholders impacted by the person jumping or not wearing their crash helmet and being in an accident. It's exactly the same.

    As for obesity, I assume you don't keep up with some of the news in that field. Pressure is put on people to be healthy, they are refused treatment by the NHS until they lose weight. Tax is applied to foods differently, advertising is restricted. Things are changing there too.
     
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