Brexit negotiations

[The Byre]

Excellent. A hung Parliament is good news. Either the Tories will have to team up with the DUP / Brexit Party ... in which case the Boris deal is dead and we leave properly on Jan 31st.

Your other scenario is more likely - a Labour-SNP deal that sees an Indy-Ref-2 in the near future and a luke-warm BRINO deal under Corbyn and a Brexit-2 vote. That gives rise to several constitutional issues, not least of which would be, if Scotlandshire votes to remain and therefore forces Englandshire to remain, despite a clear England-only leave vote and then Scotlandshire votes to leave the UK, what price democracy then?

But Comrade @Clinton (I'm of course calling you Comrade in preparation for a Corbyn government) - you want a WTO-rules Brexit. OK, but here's a funky question for you -

The UK today has trade deals with 83% of the World's markets because it is a member of the EU. The remaining 17% is under WTO rules.

In what way would a WTO style exit in which nearly all trade is done under WTO rules (for the first few years at least) benefit the UK?

It is a question that I have yet to hear an answer to!

 

[Mr D]

It is a question that I have yet to hear an answer to!

The question you should have been asking prior to the referendum?
Bit late once people decided.

 

[simon field]

You mean the same experts who told us that we should join the Euro for similar reasons? Similar to the experts (and using much the same type of models) who told us our banks were sound?

Oh no no no, of course not! It won't be those experts, it'll be better experts.

Those were the wrong type of experts, pesky buggers.

Anyway, I'm with Cobby now, who wants less growth? I'm sure his post takes into account all of the other unknown factors in this - you know - things like world events, that sort of minor stuff.

I'm not sure what kind of business he owns, maybe you can tell us @Cobby?

 

[Clinton]

I'm not sure what kind of business he owns, maybe you can tell us @Cobby?

<sigh> You people still feeding the trolls?! When will you learn?

The likes of cobby reply to stuff I've posted, no doubt, but I can't even see his posts so I don't answer. That effectively then shuts him up and he moves on to you muppets instead because you're engaging with him!

Anyway, of all the MPs who're quitting politics, it seems most are Remainers, especially the big guns like Tom Watson and Phillip Hammond. Anyone seen any article analysing the aggregate sentiment of those quitting politics.

 

[Ian J]

<sigh> You people still feeding the trolls?! When will you learn?

The likes of cobby reply to stuff I've posted, no doubt, but I can't even see his posts so I don't answer.

You too I wonder if he holds the record for being on peoples' ignore lists

Anyway, of all the MPs who're quitting politics, it seems most are Remainers, especially the big guns like Tom Watson and Phillip Hammond. Anyone seen any article analysing the aggregate sentiment of those quitting politics.

The difference between the two is that Tom Watson's constituency voted overwhelmingly to leave whilst Hammond's constituency was marginally in favour of remaining

 

[simon field]

<sigh> You people still feeding the trolls?! When will you learn?

The likes of cobby reply to stuff I've posted, no doubt, but I can't even see his posts so I don't answer. That effectively then shuts him up and he moves on to you muppets instead because you're engaging with him!

Anyway, of all the MPs who're quitting politics, it seems most are Remainers, especially the big guns like Tom Watson and Phillip Hammond. Anyone seen any article analysing the aggregate sentiment of those quitting politics.

I believe you may be missing the point!

it’s quite entertaining seeing the almost cult-like drivel posted, don’t miss out!

 

[Clinton]

it’s quite entertaining seeing the almost cult-like drivel posted, don’t miss out!

I'm fine, thanks.

The Americans have the Russians interfering in their politics. We have the EU paying, directly or indirectly, a whole host of vested interests who then preach the Remain cause with evangelistic zeal. The more you engage with them the more they reply and the more publicity and page views they get for their puppet masters' fakery and deceit.

You too

Not me too, it was me first

 

[RobinBHM]

We have the EU paying, directly or indirectly, a whole host of vested interests who then preach the Remain cause with evangelistic zeal

Be interesting to see you back that up with some facts.

 

[RobinBHM]

The question you should have been asking prior to the referendum?
Bit late once people decided.

Wrong.
Brexit has not happened yet

And if it does happen the problem of trade deals still exists.
Its just that brexiteers want to drive forward and escape having the detail scrutinised.

Brexiteers cant have the details scrutinised because their arguments falls apart.
Hence why Mr D wants to shut down the discussion by his childish 'shouldvr been discussed 3 years ago' drivel.

Hey ho.

 

[RobinBHM]

<sigh> You people still feeding the trolls?! When will you learn?

The likes of cobby reply to stuff I've posted, no doubt, but I can't even see his posts so I don't answer. That effectively then shuts him up and he moves on to you muppets instead because you're engaging with him

Clinton cant handle the criticism -he can dish it out but cant take, so he has to put people like Cobby on ignore.

 

[RobinBHM]

Oh no no no, of course not! It won't be those experts, it'll be better experts.

Those were the wrong type of experts, pesky buggers.

Anyway, I'm with Cobby now, who wants less growth? I'm sure his post takes into account all of the other unknown factors in this - you know - things like world events, that sort of minor stuff.

I'm not sure what kind of business he owns, maybe you can tell us @Cobby?

Diversion tactic.

Whichever way brexiteers like to twist it, the simple facts of trade stay the same.

If the UK leave the EU it will have trade with friction making UK exports uncompetitive.

If the UK leave the EU it will become a middling sized country with no power to negotiate trade deals.

Unfortunately brexiteers gloss iver pesky problems like non tariff barriers, regulatory costs etc.

They forget key industries like pharma, chemical, aeronautical will suffer significantly if any regulatory divergence takes place.

Brexiteers still live in a fantasy world of cake and eat it.

 

[The Byre]

It looks as if I am going to have to repeat my question -

The UK today has trade deals with 83% of the World's markets because it is a member of the EU. The remaining 17% is under WTO rules.

In what way would a WTO style exit in which nearly all trade is done under WTO rules (for the first few years at least) benefit the UK?

 

[Newchodge]

It looks as if I am going to have to repeat my question -

The UK today has trade deals with 83% of the World's markets because it is a member of the EU. The remaining 17% is under WTO rules.

In what way would a WTO style exit in which nearly all trade is done under WTO rules (for the first few years at least) benefit the UK?

I am still waiting for an answer to the solution to the Irish border problem. I asked over 9 months ago. There is no answer, which is why you will get no response.

 

[KM-Tiger]

I am still waiting for an answer to the solution to the Irish border problem.

Surely the answer is in the new WA.

I always said it would have to be a fudge, and the fudge is NI being in the UK and the EU at the same time, subject to democratic approval from time to time.

There could be an upside to that: certain businesses could take advantage of that and relocate to NI, which would be good for the NI economy.

 

[Mr D]

I am still waiting for an answer to the solution to the Irish border problem. I asked over 9 months ago. There is no answer, which is why you will get no response.

So the EU agreed a deal and parliament voted by a majority on its initial reading for something which ignores the problem? Or has an answer to the problem?

 

[NickGrogan]

It looks as if I am going to have to repeat my question -

The UK today has trade deals with 83% of the World's markets because it is a member of the EU. The remaining 17% is under WTO rules.

In what way would a WTO style exit in which nearly all trade is done under WTO rules (for the first few years at least) benefit the UK?

1)

The EU negotiates trade agreements to benefit the EU in general, not the UK specifically. All agreements have to be balanced to get enough support to be approved/ratified.

Any agreements negotiated by the UK in future will not have to take into account the issues of French farmers, German carmakers or anyone else.

If we can find someone who can negotiate and a parliament that can make decisions we will end up with better agreements.

2)

We've spent the last 20+ years (as long as I can remember) moaning about being part of the EU and never fully integrating or benefitting. Being all in is fine, being all out is fine, sitting on the sidelines complaining doesn't work. We could have benefitted more from EU membership than we have.

3)

The EU is failing, it's moved from an economic goal to a political goal and the rich countries of the world don't want to join. The poorer countries want to join and are then disappointed by the focus on politics, not the economy. Hence the rise of far-right parties in the former Eastern Bloc countries who are now members, and of course Germany.

 

[NickGrogan]

I am still waiting for an answer to the solution to the Irish border problem. I asked over 9 months ago. There is no answer, which is why you will get no response.

I believe that Ireland has agreed to two different WA agreements in the last few months, both acceptable to the Irish Government.

The UK government also supported both agreements, but couldn't get them through the parliament. Hopefully, an election will change this.

Then we'll have an agreement which is acceptable to the UK and the Irish governments and the EU.

Who else's agreement does it need?

 

[Newchodge]

Surely the answer is in the new WA.

I always said it would have to be a fudge, and the fudge is NI being in the UK and the EU at the same time, subject to democratic approval from time to time.

There could be an upside to that: certain businesses could take advantage of that and relocate to NI, which would be good for the NI economy.

That proposal means a border between NI and the rest of the UK which is unacceptable to many in NI and many in the rest of the UK. It is a solution, but it is not an acceptable one. Would you acept a border between England and Wales?

 

[Mr D]

That proposal means a border between NI and the rest of the UK which is unacceptable to many in NI and many in the rest of the UK. It is a solution, but it is not an acceptable one. Would you acept a border between England and Wales?

Sorry, what does many in NI have to do with it?
We have a parliamentary system, MPs get to vote on major decisions. Surely if its that bad then it won't pass through parliament.
There is no requirement for the people who don't like it to be the ones deciding whether it should be used.

 

[Newchodge]

Sorry, what does many in NI have to do with it?
We have a parliamentary system, MPs get to vote on major decisions. Surely if its that bad then it won't pass through parliament.
There is no requirement for the people who don't like it to be the ones deciding whether it should be used.

I was reminding people that no-one on these forums has replied to my request for a solution to the NI problem. The only response after 9 months was today, that the WA solved it. I was then explaining why it was not a solution.

Please try to keep up.

 

[Mr D]

IT HASN'T PASSED THROUGH PARLIAMENT, that is the point.

We have a parliamentary system, MPs get to vote on major decisions. Surely if its that bad then it won't pass through parliament.

Posting the relevant bit of the post you didn't read.

 

[NickGrogan]

That proposal means a border between NI and the rest of the UK which is unacceptable to many in NI and many in the rest of the UK. It is a solution, but it is not an acceptable one. Would you acept a border between England and Wales?

Many government policies are unacceptable to many people, they still become laws and are acted on, how is this different?

 

[KM-Tiger]

That proposal means a border between NI and the rest of the UK which is unacceptable to many in NI and many in the rest of the UK. It is a solution, but it is not an acceptable one. Would you acept a border between England and Wales?

It's not like there will be checkpoints in the Irish Sea, submarines torpedoing ships carrying contraband. It will simply be an administrative border. Yes paperwork, but with modern IT systems unlikely to be a burden.

As regards England/Wales there has already been a border. If you used the Severn Bridge it was free to get into Wales, but you had to pay a tariff to get out!

 

[Ian J]

I am still waiting for an answer to the solution to the Irish border problem. I asked over 9 months ago. There is no answer, which is why you will get no response.

Give Northern Ireland to the Republic and that will sort the border problem as well as save the UK more money than EU membership cost us

 

[Mr D]

Give Northern Ireland to the Republic and that will sort the border problem as well as save the UK more money than EU membership cost us

Ignore the declared decision of 98.9% in the last referendum on the subject?
Yes could be done.
Not as if makes much difference in MPs...

 

[Ally Maxwell]

Give Northern Ireland to the Republic and that will sort the border problem as well as save the UK more money than EU membership cost us

What happened to the 'precious union' that all the Yoons bang on about all the time ??

 

[MBE2017]

As regards England/Wales there has already been a border. If you used the Severn Bridge it was free to get into Wales, but you had to pay a tariff to get out!

As a proud Welshman I am duty bound to point out you are incorrect, the toll was only paid to get into Wales, England being the less desirable country was always a free journey.

You have got it back to front.

 

[Mr D]

As a proud Welshman I am duty bound to point out you are incorrect, the toll was only paid to get into Wales, England being the less desirable country was always a free journey.

You have got it back to front.

So the story that the toll was brought in to force English visitors to start paying immediately before they even got to their destination is not quite correct?

 

[Cobby]

No, I think the benefits of EU membership are outweighed by risks and downsides

Cool. It disagrees with you on that, too.

No, they are not common sense, because the fundamental reason for international trade are gains from Ricardian advantage, which are smallest with similar countries, and the countries nearest the UK are very similar indeed.

Jesus, this is what I mean. Clearly neither of us have any expertise in this area, because the gravity model can include cultural differences, so yet again, I'll defer to the experts and people that work in this area:
https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Gravity_theory_of_trade.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade

So you would define the Labour party up to the 70s/80s as far right

Do I think Labour of the 70s/80s would pursue the economic harm currently predicted by the current government's approach to Brexit? No.

With the exception of some of the problematic social views of certain brexiteers, we aren't currently living in the 70s/80s. Hope this helps!

 

[Cobby]

I do not think that the topic of the European Union as a whole is already relevant. The very idea that was to create the EU has exhausted itself. Now Germany imposes its own rules of the game on all countries.

Oh cool, more bland and factually untrue brexiteer hysteria. I have a sneaking suspicion this might turn out to be one of Mr D's white noise "comrades".

Anyway, of all the MPs who're quitting politics, it seems most are Remainers, especially the big guns like Tom Watson and Phillip Hammond. Anyone seen any article analysing the aggregate sentiment of those quitting politics.

And specifically more women are stepping down, some of whom have specifically cited the abuse and death threats from Brexit trolls. I'm not sure which of these explanations I'd give more weight to, but it's certainly not one or the other.

 

[Cobby]

It's not like there will be checkpoints in the Irish Sea, submarines torpedoing ships carrying contraband. It will simply be an administrative border. Yes paperwork, but with modern IT systems unlikely to be a burden.

So far the suggestions from affected industries seem to be that it's going to be a pretty big burden, and it doesn't eliminate the problems surrounding RoO.

The recent problem of Chinese companies "invading" Vietnam is a good example, but it requires a better grasp of the topic than Daily Mail sound-bites can provide.

 

[The Byre]

Any agreements negotiated by the UK in future will not have to take into account the issues of French farmers, German carmakers or anyone else.

With all due respect Nick - that is not an answer to my questions which were all about @Clinton's desire for a WTO exit.

I might add that we shall have to continue to take French farmers and German carmakers into consideration if we are to trade with France and Germany.

If we can find someone who can negotiate and a parliament that can make decisions we will end up with better agreements.

That is what Americans call 'Whistling Dixie!' Hoping against hope!

We have seen just how astute the UK negotiating skills are with the May deal and then the even greater surrender to EU pressure in the Johnson deal that manages to even push NI closer to reunification with the RoI.

I mean - I'm all for Irish reunification and the break-up of the union, starting with Scotland - but I bet it ain't what people voted for!

 

[gpietersz]

@Cobby the way it reflects cultural differences is the exact opposite of comparative advantage.

I can see a gravity model might be good for forecasting the amount of trade because, for example, if an Irish manufacturer and a Japanese one are both trying to sell the same product to the UK the former has many advantages.

However, the Riccardian model is better for understanding the gains from trade - i.e. why international trade makes us better off.

If the Riccardian model is wrong, why engage in much international trade at all? Especially for big economies that can generate economies of scale internally.

 

[Mr D]

I mean - I'm all for Irish reunification and the break-up of the union, starting with Scotland - but I bet it ain't what people voted for!

True.
They voted to leave the EU.

They also voted against irish reunification last time. Perhaps those who voted against have changed their minds. Or perhaps they still believe that they should not be part of the country to the south.

 

[Newchodge]

Is Boris lying (again) or does he just not understand the deal he has "negotiated"?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50344110

Mr Johnson said: "There will not be checks on goods going from Northern Ireland to Great Britain."

Whichever it is, and there is no reason to believe it is not both, it hardly inspires confidence, does it?

 

[Clinton]

Is Boris lying (again)...

Possibly. He does that a lot. Like most politicians.

...it hardly inspires confidence, does it?

It does not. That's why people should not vote for him. They should vote for that Nigel chap who is committed to ensuring no border between the UK and Northern Ireland.

 

[Cobby]

Possibly. He does that a lot. Like most politicians.

I see this insidious little false equivalence a LOT recently, and almost exclusively about Johnson.

He absolutely does NOT "lie" like most politicians. Historically, a "politician's lie" is considered more about being evasive and leaving room in their language for claims they wish to make but which at a later date may prove to not be possible (or desirable for them.)

Johnson and his cohort lie quite brazenly. They don't hide it or couch their language - they just say easily disprovable things, and they say them on video. Why do they suddenly choose to lie in this fashion? Because the mechanisms of accountability, like public shame or party respectability, no longer matter - they know their base will support them no matter what they say or do.

 

[Cobby]

Is Boris lying (again) or does he just not understand the deal he has "negotiated"?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50344110

Mr Johnson said: "There will not be checks on goods going from Northern Ireland to Great Britain."

Whichever it is, and there is no reason to believe it is not both, it hardly inspires confidence, does it?

For a long time I've been pretty convinced that he doesn't actually understand anything about this situation and considers his job to be just turning up to do public speaking, then demanding his own way. Much like Trump. I know teenagers with a better grasp of the Brexit technicalities than him.

This video is just fuel on that fire:
https://twitter.com/ManufacturingNI/status/1192564837345353728

• Clearly doesn't understand the details of deal he "made".
• Claims there will be "no checks" (untrue).
• Claims FoM and SM access for NI is a "great deal" (but for some reason not for the UK).
• Claims EU accepted this deal because of the threat of "No Deal" (it's basically the same deal he voted against because of the border in the sea, and the EU accepted it because he compromised on that red line).
  
• Is a terrible, bumbling public speaker.
• Appears to be the drunk uncle at a friend's wedding that makes everyone uncomfortable/embarrassed.
  
• Again, worth noting a second time what a terrible orator he is.

 

[NickGrogan]

Is Boris lying (again) or does he just not understand the deal he has "negotiated"?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50344110

Mr Johnson said: "There will not be checks on goods going from Northern Ireland to Great Britain."

Whichever it is, and there is no reason to believe it is not both, it hardly inspires confidence, does it?

Assuming that the WA passes and there should be checks on goods going from NI to GB and we simply decide not to do them, or to "check" the paperwork only and not the actual goods, what will the EU do? How exactly will the EU know if we've checked goods electronically or not?

Blockade the Irish sea, build a hard border in Ireland?

 

[Mr D]

Assuming that the WA passes and there should be checks on goods going from NI to GB and we simply decide not to do them, or to "check" the paperwork only and not the actual goods, what will the EU do? How exactly will the EU know if we've checked goods electronically or not?

Blockade the Irish sea, build a hard border in Ireland?

EU may find it hard to blockade without a navy. Oh wait, we can rent them ours.