Brexit Negotiations

Discussion in 'Time Out' started by Scott-Copywriter, Jun 19, 2017.

  1. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

    11,745 1,237
    So should our parliament go for the deal on offer or should they go for no deal?
    Those appear to be the only two options on offer this month. By summer maybe there will be a third option or even a fourth option.

    Did see something earlier on suggesting that a general election could be called later this month.
     
    Posted: Jan 8, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  2. Clinton

    Clinton UKBF Big Shot Full Member

    3,683 1,238
    I voted Remain. But given the choices on the table I think No Deal is the better option ... by a million miles. There will be some initial problems for the UK, but none that we can't overcome. We are, after all, one of the planet's largest economies and we have numerous other advantages (language, time zone, ability to lower taxes, OECD membership, strong international presence with NATO, security council etc,, sound legal and regulatory environment, well established world class institutions, London and the stranglehold it has on many global financial transactions).

    Once we leave with a no deal, the EU will start to unravel. They'll have to bail Ireland out to the tune of many billions. And that'll be in an environment where the EU budget will be severely depleted and Germany, France and Italy, the three biggest economies will lose a few percentage points of GDP and therefore breach their EU obligations on, for example, deficits. The brown stuff will hit the fan with one almighty splat. It won't be pretty.

    The EU should have been a lot more accommodating with Cameron and when they failed there they should have been sensible in the Brexit negotiations. They weren't. They'll discover that that wasn't a smart move. Free movement was always doomed and in attempting to cling on to that holy grail they scored a self-goal.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
    Posted: Jan 8, 2019 By: Clinton Member since: Jan 17, 2010
  3. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    So if we leave with no deal we end up with a bunch of problematic states next door and no chance of a trade deal for decades?
    Glad you think we have advantages too.
     
    Posted: Jan 8, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  4. JEREMY HAWKE

    JEREMY HAWKE UKBF Legend Full Member

    3,638 1,161
    I am a remainer and feel is a really bad thing for our country but It is time for us to let it go now
    The majority voted to leave while I disagree strongly with them they did win the vote. It is a disservice to our country to accuse these people of being misinformed or uneducated .

    Everybody here should have their no deal Brexit recession plan in place .
    If every falls apart I will send the posh vans back to the hire company and get the old paid for vans out of the brambles and run them:)

    We are on our own
     
    Posted: Jan 9, 2019 By: JEREMY HAWKE Member since: Mar 4, 2008
  5. Jasondb

    Jasondb UKBF Regular Free Member

    127 8
    This is an interesting read as this lady a daughter of a High Court Judge tried to legally take on her Council and obtain a detailed breakdown of their expenditure but was refused using unusual legal means. I saw her once in a wheelchair at a political meeting probably just a year before she died.

    http://namastepublishing.co.uk/elisabeth-beckett-her-untold-story/
     
    Posted: Jan 10, 2019 By: Jasondb Member since: Apr 23, 2018
  6. Newchodge

    Newchodge UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    10,983 2,816
    Any publication that publishes without dating the article is automatically suspect. I have read as much if it as I can take, but it is a classic mix of truth and fantasy, using the true bits to persuade you to believe the fantasies.
     
    Posted: Jan 10, 2019 By: Newchodge Member since: Nov 8, 2012
  7. JEREMY HAWKE

    JEREMY HAWKE UKBF Legend Full Member

    3,638 1,161
    Also stating views and opinions and trying to peddle them as facts or policy !
     
    Posted: Jan 10, 2019 By: JEREMY HAWKE Member since: Mar 4, 2008
  8. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    You mean its …. media?
     
    Posted: Jan 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  9. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Posted: Jan 11, 2019 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
  10. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    People wanted parliamentary sovereignty, and now they're getting it.

    A mixture of Brexiteers wanting no deal, and remainers wanting no Brexit, will almost certainly lead to defeat of May's deal tomorrow.

    And it's this mixture of opposing sides, seemingly voting in unison, that is likely to scupper any strategic attempts by May to get the deal through. On one hand she's threatening no deal to scare remainers, and on the other hand threatening no Brexit to scare the Brexiteers. But this huge contradiction is making these threats appear very weak indeed.

    In my view, the only side that should be worried are the Brexiteers. With MPs taking more control of the situation, the chances of no deal are decreasing by the day. This is galvanising remain or soft Brexit MPs even further, while the pro-leave lot remain stubborn in their resistance of the deal.

    This may be intentional by some, of course. For those advocating the "merits" of no deal, this withdrawal agreement is arguably worse than just staying in the EU - even for them. This idea, therefore, of getting some form of Brexit instead of none at all, is not necessarily an obvious choice.

    I'm not sure what's going to happen after tomorrow. But what I do believe is that no deal is almost completely off the table at this point. Even May seems to have accepted this as she's pivoted more towards scaring the ardent Brexiteers about it.

    Beyond that, the choices appear to boil down to either staying in the EU, or leaving with a very soft version of Brexit. The former will only come via the people, while the latter will come via the MPs. I'd edge it slightly towards a super soft Brexit at the moment, as I think MPs will consider it the least bitter of the two pills.

    As for the 29th of March exit date, I will be extremely surprised if that doesn't change.
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
  11. KM-Tiger

    KM-Tiger UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    The default legal position is that we leave the EU and trade on WTO terms. That is in Statute and could only be rescinded by further Statute Law, which parliament cannot do on its own.

    Interesting times, as I believe, and sincerely hope, that May's appalling treason* will be voted down.

    *Buried in the WA is the handing over of some aspects of defence and security of this country to the EU. If that isn't treason I don't know what is.
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: KM-Tiger Member since: Aug 10, 2003
  12. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Merely needs the agreement of the very people our MPs will be peeing off tomorrow.
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  13. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
  14. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Its been going on for years. NATO couldn't function without it.

    A few years ago there were some Nato excercises in the Med. Our Navy lent the Spanish some ships so they could join in. The Spanish sailed straight into Gibraltar and no one noticed.

    What would you have us do next time. Hit them with paint balls?
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
  15. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  16. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    Parliament can do it on its own. It requires a bit of parliamentary wrangling, but if a majority of MPs are determined to revoke Article 50, the mechanisms are certainly available to do that without government (or EU) approval.

    Before then, the most likely route, in the event of a parliamentary impasse, is to delay Article 50. This does require EU approval, but they are likely to grant it I'd imagine.

    So yes, legally the default outcome is to leave the EU without a deal. But in practice, with the level of parliamentary opposition to it, the chances are extremely slim. I'd even argue there's more than enough government opposition to that as well, but they are just bluffing at this stage for obvious reasons.

    Are you prepared to accept that this outcome has a very high chance of resulting in no Brexit at all, or at the very least, an even softer Brexit such as EFTA-style membership?
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
  17. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    If, as is possible, we end up with a general election called as a result of all this then we could end up with Labour trying to negotiate a 'better' deal which parts of their party won't accept and that will also have a NI backstop. Because no one will have a viable solution by then acceptable to the locals.

    I suspect the EU could agree an extension if we had a change of party in government rather than just a general election. Less than that.... is anyone's guess.

    And until Brexit is resolved we have more and more businesses making plans, moving facilities, putting money into other places.... ?
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  18. KM-Tiger

    KM-Tiger UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    If needs be yes no Brexit, and we have to wait until we can do it properly with a Brexit parliament rather than a remain parliament.

    Not sure about EFTA, a key test would be can we exit that arrangement unilaterally? If we can then maybe that is an acceptable temporary compromise.

    If there is no Brexit then IMHO the conservative party will have committed electoral suicide and possibly be wiped out for good. Which opens the door for a new party. Many habitual tory voters like me will not be voting Labour, but we do need someone to vote for.
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: KM-Tiger Member since: Aug 10, 2003
  19. Jasondb

    Jasondb UKBF Regular Free Member

    127 8
    Certainly think that is a possibility. It could even be worse with targeted assassinations of certain politicians as I think some people feel so strongly about the issue.
     
    Posted: Jan 14, 2019 By: Jasondb Member since: Apr 23, 2018
  20. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

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    So you wanted "sovereignty" but don't like it when Parliament takes back control????
     
    Posted: Jan 15, 2019 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009