Brexit negotiations

[Mr D]

Those not-impact-assessments-impact-assessments are clearly comprehensive; can't believe such detail as was revealed wasn't redacted too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rexit-studies-reveal-that-airbus-makes-planes


We're in safe hands....



Karl Limpert

I have a mental image of some consultancy firm producing one set of impact assessments and selling it thousands of times to companies, governments (including ours) and eventually it making its way into peer to peer file sharing......

 

[Employment Law Clinic]

Who would have thought, but there's more useful insight - details that we really should have kept close: "Electricity is a fundamental part of modern society."

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/943876460577738752

 

[The Byre]

I remember I took over a department in a publishing house based in London and there were two priceless individuals there (both media studies graduates!) who churned out nothing but guff like that for an entire week. This was for a series of expensive market studies and once I got to see what they were up to (they tried to hide their efforts!) they spent two days doing nothing at all, so I fired them.

 

[Violinni]

Just my 2¢ about the whole Brexit thing:

Sand in the eyes. Won’t fix anything but it’ll only give the false illusion of drastical improvement of the current situation. And that’s the whole plan.

The problem is inside, on the island. You shut the island’s ports. The problem is still on the island. You just slowed down your death a bit. But your days are still coming, soon. Pretty soon.

I have no high hopes. Dark days are coming.

 

[Clinton]

To Scott, atmosbob, The Byre etc, I can't resist trolling you guys

UK 'best country for business' in 2018

An annual ranking has declared the UK to be the best country for business next year, despite uncertainty over Brexit.

As business groups clamour for clarity on future trading arrangements and warn of financial services firms enacting contingency plans to maintain EU access, Forbes said the country had risen in its rankings from fifth last year to first.

The information specialist declared the UK was inside the top 25 nations in each of the metrics it judged, except for political risk.

Ouch!

 

[MBE2017]

Just my 2¢ about the whole Brexit thing:

You just slowed down your death a bit. But your days are still coming, soon. Pretty soon.

I have no high hopes. Dark days are coming.

The UK's best days are still in front of it if it wants them to be.

It is strange so many wish to come here to work and live, plenty of companies also wishing to come here, yet so many actually here already get caught up in the medias constant attempts to bring the UK down.

If you believe things will be bad, or good, you are normally correct.

 

[Violinni]

@MBE2017, if you’re speaking from a superstitious point of view, or from a “whatever we think, we pull”, yeah, about that, it doesn’t work like that. I can pull a whole bucket of proof about it, but might not be a good idea now.

In time, you’ll understand what I mean (if we continue to read each other’s posts of course).

 

[Violinni]

@MBE2017, my landlord lady went to England in 2011 and her husband too. They’re working low paid jobs, constantly cussing and when they come back here, they’re “living life”. I cannot understand some people. Logic is not something you can teach people. You’re either born with, or not.

 

[KM-Tiger]

I wish everyone a happy and peaceful Christmas.

Particularly as the most important issue of Brexit has now been dealt with:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42443253

 

[Cobby]

To Scott, atmosbob, The Byre etc, I can't resist trolling you guys

UK 'best country for business' in 2018

Ouch!

Are we to assume the "ouch" is because despite occasional stories like this, almost all prominent businesses and business groups are still against Brexit.

When I read @Clinton 's posts I always picture this comic.

 

[Cobby]

...medias constant attempts to bring the UK down.

If you believe things will be bad, or good, you are normally correct.

As a quick aside, we were promised that Brexit would be: "great", "easy", "popular once people understood". It is none of those and what's more, if your course of action cannot materialise successfully without the belief of the people who don't agree with it, then it's your own fault.

At some point Brexiteers are going to have to take responsibility for this disaster. It's failing because it's a terrible idea, not because Remain voters refuse to put aside rational concerns and sign up to a solely nationalist agenda.

That whole "talking Britain down" nonsense is co-opted patriotism, which is extremely ironic given that the groups using that phrase are the ones trying desperately to steer the country toward social and economic harm. :/

 

[Cobby]

So in case anyone wanted to look at David Davis' famous "Impact assessments" of 58 sectors, in "excruciating detail" (as Davis himself said), here is a link containing all...er... 39 of them
http://www.parliament.uk/business/c...artment-sectoral-analyses-17-19/publications/

They read like they were put together extremely rapidly by GCSE students trying to pad a word count. Some parts are copied/pasted almost directly out of Wikipedia entries.

What's more, the "reading room" arrangement they set up for MP's to view them (a thing deemed absurd by almost everyone who viewed them) is in keeping with Davis' usual lack of transparency. One MP who viewed them described them as absurd, containing nothing the EU27 wouldn't have been able to deduce remotely, and that the documents themselves included the phrase, "containing no material that could affect negotiations".

This is what our Lead Negotiator, David Davis, man who suggested he "didn't need to be very clever for the job", had apparently put together a year ago, then lied to Parliament about it.

It's no wonder we're becoming such an international laughing stock.

 

[MBE2017]

"INTERNATIONAL economic forecasters admit they were “too pessimistic” about the immediate impact of Brexit on Britain and the world.

The experts said the effects on the UK have been less than feared and we will bounce back in economic league tables inside two years.

But emerging powerhouses will make strong challenges in the 2020s, with China expected to overtake the US at No1 and Britain and France left behind by India and Brazil.

The findings come in the ninth edition of the annual World Economic League Table, which analyses the likely performance of 192 nations over the next 15 years.

The research, compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in partnership with Global Construction Perspectives, predicted technology and cheap energy will now drive a stronger period of growth.

Their report said: “We were too pessimistic about the initial impacts of Brexit on the UK economy.

“As the probability of some Brexit deal has increased, the pound has risen and UK growth has been rather higher than we had forecast.

“We still see Brexit, though, as imposing some difficult adjustments for the UK economy which will probably be spread over a longer period than we had earlier assumed.”

Yet again more proof so called experts are shown to be wrong in their forecasts, the future is not written except by ourselves. The UK is forecast to overtake France in 2020 and remain ahead for years, an independent UK can trade much better with India etc than under the constraints of the EU.

I won't get carried away though, these are yet more forecasts from the same so called experts.

 

[Mr D]

I wish everyone a happy and peaceful Christmas.

Particularly as the most important issue of Brexit has now been dealt with:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42443253

Sorry, what most important issue of Brexit was that?

 

[Clinton]

@MBE2017 , you forgot the GDP news:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised its estimate for third quarter year-on-year growth from 1.5 to 1.7 per cent.

The difference is 0.2 - it's tiny, not worth a song and dance, but I'd like to remind everyone that in a previous quarter when the forecast (or actual?) was revised downwards by 0.1% there was a huge song and dance about what a disaster it was.

I can't be bothered to go find those posts, but some people were bigging it up in every way possible - for example, "it's not .1%; the drop is actually 0.1/1.5 ... which is 6.66% of a change!".

Now that it's .2 in the other direction they've gone very quiet.

 

[Cobby]

I'm on holiday so not digging through reports but:

“We still see Brexit, though, as imposing some difficult adjustments for the UK economy which will probably be spread over a longer period than we had earlier assumed.”

So Brexit is going to take longer than previously thought to recover from? This is what Leave voters think is "Good news"!? Gosh.

Yet again more proof so called experts are shown to be wrong in their forecasts,

The anti-intellectualism pushed by Leave campaigners and the far-right is extremely dangerous. As with science, these experts revised their conclusions when more data is available. Brexiteers call them "so called" experts simply because their conclusions go against the religious belief of Brexit, when in reality if they were that bad, there wouldn't even *be* any experts; the Free Market Provides...

 

[The Byre]

The anti-intellectualism pushed by Leave campaigners and the far-right is extremely dangerous.

A breakdown of EU referendum data has shown people with a lower education level were much more likely to vote for Brexit.

 

[KM-Tiger]

A breakdown of EU referendum data has shown people with a lower education level were much more likely to vote for Brexit.

No big surprise there as they are likely also the lowest paid, and thus a group that stands to gain from Brexit.

Actually there is already upward pressure on wages for the lowest paid, which I see as good news. Where we can take an action that improves the lot of our least fortunate people (as distinct from simply handing out taxpayers money), I'm all in favour of it.

 

[Mr D]

A breakdown of EU referendum data has shown people with a lower education level were much more likely to vote for Brexit.

Does that mean not enough have taken advantage of the opportunity to go for further education?
Or would that be a coincidental element rather than a cause?

 

[Mr D]

No big surprise there as they are likely also the lowest paid, and thus a group that stands to gain from Brexit.

Actually there is already upward pressure on wages for the lowest paid, which I see as good news. Where we can take an action that improves the lot of our least fortunate people (as distinct from simply handing out taxpayers money), I'm all in favour of it.

The same people may well have missed the idea that prices will also likely rise. Not as the media nonsense has it by such high figures but likely multiple rises over time to cover increased costs.

 

[KM-Tiger]

The same people may well have missed the idea that prices will also likely rise.

On the contrary, prices, on the things that matter to the lowest paid, are likely to fall once we are out of the customs union and can buy at world prices.

Leaving aside housing, the very basics of life, ie food, clothing and footwear can all become cheaper.

 

[The Byre]

Or would that be a coincidental element rather than a cause?

Good question! There is some evidence (not enough IMO) to suggest that those at the bottom of the ladder are getting fed-up with the way things are and have used the referendum to kick the system. And quite honestly, the system definitely needs kicking and kicking bloody hard!

For the first time since the war, standards of living for the most common range of incomes (the so-called mode-number) is falling and the government's answer is more austerity! Nobody can blame the largest income-range segment of society (who BTW do NOT earn the average £30k, but a great deal less!) for wanting to give the system a kick up the arse!

Sadly, they will be the ones who suffer if Brexit turns into a dog's Brexit. So far, nothing has happened. So far, no food containers are being delayed by customs. So far, no factories have relocated to the Czech Republic. So far, BMW only makes half of all Minis in Germany.

But any change brings economic stress and therefore a reduction in economic activity. If the change is for the better and happens gradually, we do not notice it and may even welcome that change. But if the change is sudden and of a major structural nature, the negative effects can destroy a society or a segment of that society.

If Brexit is indeed to succeed, the change has to be very gradual. Decades, not a year or two.

 

[Cobby]

On the contrary, prices, on the things that matter to the lowest paid, are likely to fall once we are out of the customs union and can buy at world prices.

Leaving aside housing, the very basics of life, ie food, clothing and footwear can all become cheaper.

Leaving aside the WTO 'deal' fantasy, what you suggest will happen only at the cost of consumer protections and which will, ironically, cause most harm to the aforementioned people you claim stand to gain from Brexit.

 

[Gecko001]

On the contrary, prices, on the things that matter to the lowest paid, are likely to fall once we are out of the customs union and can buy at world prices.

Leaving aside housing, the very basics of life, ie food, clothing and footwear can all become cheaper.

Do we want to buy at world prices? That could mean the loss of whole industries in this country. Yes we can get grain cheaper in the USA. Yes we can get beef cheaper in south America, but as a country do we really want that if it meant that farmers and food producers would here would just disappear. Think of all the industries here that would disappear because of products being dumped here by countries around the world. Then when we find that world prices in certain products increase, there would be no option to produce them here as all the producers and people with the skills in those industries would no longer exist.

 

[Mr D]

On the contrary, prices, on the things that matter to the lowest paid, are likely to fall once we are out of the customs union and can buy at world prices.

Leaving aside housing, the very basics of life, ie food, clothing and footwear can all become cheaper.

Except those things that are from the EU.

 

[Mr D]

Do we want to buy at world prices? That could mean the loss of whole industries in this country. Yes we can get grain cheaper in the USA. Yes we can get beef cheaper in south America, but as a country do we really want that if it meant that farmers and food producers would here would just disappear. Think of all the industries here that would disappear because of products being dumped here by countries around the world. Then when we find that world prices in certain products increase, there is no option to produce them here as we do not have producers or the skills to produce them.

Is there a benefit to consumers in buying higher priced local produce?
I know there is a benefit to the farmers and food producers but what benefit to the consumer?
Would we find world prices increase? Do they normally increase?

 

[Mr D]

Good question! There is some evidence (not enough IMO) to suggest that those at the bottom of the ladder are getting fed-up with the way things are and have used the referendum to kick the system. And quite honestly, the system definitely needs kicking and kicking bloody hard!

For the first time since the war, standards of living for the most common range of incomes (the so-called mode-number) is falling and the government's answer is more austerity! Nobody can blame the largest income-range segment of society (who BTW do NOT earn the average £30k, but a great deal less!) for wanting to give the system a kick up the arse!

Sadly, they will be the ones who suffer if Brexit turns into a dog's Brexit. So far, nothing has happened. So far, no food containers are being delayed by customs. So far, no factories have relocated to the Czech Republic. So far, BMW only makes half of all Minis in Germany.

But any change brings economic stress and therefore a reduction in economic activity. If the change is for the better and happens gradually, we do not notice it and may even welcome that change. But if the change is sudden and of a major structural nature, the negative effects can destroy a society or a segment of that society.

If Brexit is indeed to succeed, the change has to be very gradual. Decades, not a year or two.

Yes, the answer is austerity. And the voters voted for parties promising austerity in 2010.
Spending plenty, still austerity.
Be nice if they could spend more but is it on the right stuff?

Labour have prior to last election promised to spend money on different stuff. Is a cut in your utilities bills of £20 a month worth spending tens of billions of pounds on? Or are there better things to spend such money on?
The voters decided that time for whatever reason. Maybe next time the plans will be different (unlikely with the same people in charge but possible) or maybe something else will change.

Brexit, whether we like it or not, will be here soon. The knock on effects will quite likely as you say have changes over decades. Trade agreements, recruiting foreign workers, immigration etc.
The major changes at this stage appear to be at the cut off point. That could be changed but then have to get 28 countries agreeing.....
Or we get the cliff edge with no agreement in place. Perhaps another year or few for an agreement to be put in place in the meantime we are at the bottom of the cliff.
Admiring the view or cursing the politicians. Maybe both.

 

[Gecko001]

Is there a benefit to consumers in buying higher priced local produce?
I know there is a benefit to the farmers and food producers but what benefit to the consumer?
Would we find world prices increase? Do they normally increase?

No the local consumer would get lower prices in the short term. But weigh that against whole industries being decimated and leaving ourselves open to being totally dependent on the rest of the world for certain products.

It might be seen as a noble gesture by some countries that we want to reduce tariffs unilaterally. The large farmers in the mid-west of the USA will welcome it. Many countries might appreciate how we are helping out their economies, but will they be so generous to us when we want to export to them? I doubt it. They will be keen to protect their producers.

 

[Mr D]

No the local consumer would get lower prices in the short term. But weigh that against whole industries being decimated and leaving ourselves open to being totally dependent on the rest of the world for certain products with absolutely affect the price.

It might be seen as a noble gesture by some countries that we want to reduce tariffs unilaterally. The large farmers in the mid-west of the USA will welcome it. Many countries might appreciate how we are helping out their economies, but will they be so generous when they want them to buy our goods? I doubt it. They will be keen to protect their producers.

You mean like champagne, brandy, orange juice, a fair amount of food, electronics, cars, gas etc?
How are we for British made computers at the moment using British components? How are we for British lemon juice now pancake day is not far off?

 

[Gecko001]

You mean like champagne, brandy, orange juice, a fair amount of food, electronics, cars, gas etc?
How are we for British made computers at the moment using British components? How are we for British lemon juice now pancake day is not far off?

There are many companies here producing electronic components and whole electronic products. I know because I know people who work in the factories which make them. I do not mean just design them here and get them made in the Far East, but designed and made here.

 

[Newchodge]

No big surprise there as they are likely also the lowest paid, and thus a group that stands to gain from Brexit.

Actually there is already upward pressure on wages for the lowest paid, which I see as good news. Where we can take an action that improves the lot of our least fortunate people (as distinct from simply handing out taxpayers money), I'm all in favour of it.

What world are you living in? How do the lowest paid stand to gain anything from Brexit. They will get higher prices, lower job protection reduced health and safety protection.

There is NO upward pressure on wages for the lowest paid. If you believe this lying government, there is nearly full employment (yeah, right) which ought to mean good wage increases. No-one can officially explain why wage levels are decreasing in this situation. Except, of course, that there is not full employment. A lot of people have minimum wage zero hours jobs, which take them off the unemployment figures but give them nothing.

 

[Mr D]

There are many companies here producing electronic components and whole electronic products. I know because I know people who work in the factories which make them. I do not mean just design them here and get them made in the Far East, but designed and made here.

Great. How many of those components end up in my made in china laptop?
Or how many end up in any laptop?

 

[Mr D]

What world are you living in? How do the lowest paid stand to gain anything from Brexit. They will get higher prices, lower job protection reduced health and safety protection.

There is NO upward pressure on wages for the lowest paid. If you believe this lying government, there is nearly full employment (yeah, right) which ought to mean good wage increases. No-one can officially explain why wage levels are decreasing in this situation. Except, of course, that there is not full employment. A lot of people have minimum wage zero hours jobs, which take them off the unemployment figures but give them nothing.

You don't have to believe the government. Just have to produce figures to show the government figures are wrong.
As its usually them collecting figures proving they are wrong is somewhat problematic.
How figures are reported and what isn't reported can tell their own story.

Upward pressure on low wages tends to be from minimum wage increases and bringing more people within the level of minimum wage. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is open to question. Ask someone benefitting and ask someone paying for it without a benefit and the answers can be different.

 

[Gecko001]

Great. How many of those components end up in my made in china laptop?
Or how many end up in any laptop?

Well I was speaking someone who worked for a UK electronics company who said that one particular component they made was in one third of all laptops made in the world. So in answer to your question there is a one in three chance.

 

[Clinton]

How do the lowest paid stand to gain anything from Brexit....

There is NO upward pressure on wages for the lowest paid.

Er, reduced immigration, for one, is an upward pressure on wages.

They will get higher prices, lower job protection reduced health and safety protection.

You sure this lower job protection and reduced H&S protection is government policy? The government never announced scrapping any protections.

In any case, there's an argument to be made that we've got too much government interference in employment, too many rules, too much red tape. Many business owners feel they've become social workers!

If businesses are freed of red tape, the UK could show higher productivity, businesses could make more profit and ... businesses would have to compete for employees by offering better wages and employment terms.

If you believe this lying government...

Did you always have this visceral hatred for everything Tory?

 

[Mr D]

Well I was speaking someone who worked for a UK electronics company who said that one particular component they made was in one third of all laptops made in the world. So in answer to your question there is a one in three chance.

Good. But the laptop probably then is not getting built without the other components that are not British.

One component is not a laptop.

 

[Gecko001]

What world are you living in? How do the lowest paid stand to gain anything from Brexit. They will get higher prices, lower job protection reduced health and safety protection.
.

Our health and safety at work regulations come mainly from tough laws that were introduced in 1974 which pre-date the EU. These laws have saved 1000's of lives in the UK. They had little if anything to do with the EU.

 

[Gecko001]

Good. But the laptop probably then is not getting built without the other components that are not British.

One component is not a laptop.

One swallow does not make a summer.

 

[Gecko001]

Good. But the laptop probably then is not getting built without the other components that are not British.

One component is not a laptop.

Wow. That is some deduction.

 

[Mr D]

One swallow does not make a summer.

Is that an African swallow or a European swallow?