Brexit negotiations

[Scott-Copywriter]

Not on my Twitter timeline they haven't.

Well, not enough to kick up a troublesome fuss, at least.

The issue that has been kicked up the road is the Irish border. But if we do do achieve a zero tariff trade agreement doesn't the Irish border issue essentially disappear?

No, because there's still the issue of the common external tariff.

The problem is not so much that UK goods could filter into the customs union. It's that the UK would become a back door to the customs union. For example, we could sign a trade agreement with another country that reduces many tariffs, and then that country could get around the EU's common external tariff by exporting to the UK and then across the Irish border into the EU. The same applies to regulations.

It's therefore impossible for the UK to remain outside the customs union without keeping an eye on what's crossing the hundreds of roads through the border. It's just way too risky for the EU because they'll have no idea what the UK will do in terms of trade agreements and regulatory frameworks with other countries.

We won't get a zero-tariff trade agreement though. The fact Davis called it "Canada plus plus plus" just shows how much more he's expecting compared to what every other external nation has ever received.

And unlike Canada, we're extremely hampered by politics. The eyes of the EU-27 are watching closely to see, first-hand, exactly what happens when a member decides to leave.

If this morphs into anything that even closely resembles the single market without any of the responsibilities, there will be problems that make Brexit seem like a walk in the park.

 

[Mr D]

Canada took how many years? 5 years from starting negotiation to concluding negotiations (2009 to 2014). And has not been fully ratified yet. Parts of it have been implemented as of a few months ago.
So 8 years to be a partial trade agreement, maybe another few years to be accepted fully.

With our parliament and the makeup it appears to have would anyone suggest a trade deal for us would be similar timescale?
Bearing in mind as you say Scott the EU are watching us closely.

Until, and if, such a trade deal is negotiated and implemented my understanding is we would be subject to WTO trade.
And if the talks bog down (the easy bit took this long!) then we end up with WTO trade.

That WTO trade is looking like it may be what we are stuck with unless something changes.

 

[Gecko001]

Does the UK have enough people experienced in trade treaties to even make treaties with countries outside the EU? Over the last few decades most of our trade negotiations with countries outside of the EU have been carried out by the EU on our behalf. Also do we even have enough expertise to negotiated new trade treaties with the EU. The EU is reported to have over 500 experienced trade treaty experts.

 

[Mr D]

Have any experienced trade negotiators left the EU or other country service and is available to hire?
When you don't have the expertise you usually hire it.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Canada took how many years? 5 years from starting negotiation to concluding negotiations (2009 to 2014). And has not been fully ratified yet. Parts of it have been implemented as of a few months ago.
So 8 years to be a partial trade agreement, maybe another few years to be accepted fully.

With our parliament and the makeup it appears to have would anyone suggest a trade deal for us would be similar timescale?
Bearing in mind as you say Scott the EU are watching us closely.

Pretty much every comprehensive trade deal on the planet has take 5-10 years, often excluding the ratification process. They don't drag it out for fun. That's how long it takes.

Trade negotiations between the UK and the EU are easier in some respects (being a current EU member), but considerably more difficult in others.

One of the biggest issues, as Gecko001 pointed out above, is resources. When we leave the EU, we'll lose the single market and over 60 other EU-brokered agreements across the world. There simply aren't enough qualified civil servants in the UK to negotiate the exit agreement, EU trade agreement and other trade agreements elsewhere at any sort of reasonable speed, never mind faster.

On top of this, everything gets considerably more complicated when multiple trade agreements are being negotiated at the same time, as what we agree with one country could have an impact on what's agreed with another. This is a typical problem experienced by other countries, but we'd have that issue on steroids and, crucially, with no precedent to rely on.

If we don't get a transitional period, we may as well give up now.

If we do get one, it will be a miracle to have something comprehensive in place before we leave.

When it comes to building a global trade framework that is as good as what we've got now, we're looking at decades - plural.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

In fact, in an economic sense, an independent Scotland building its global trade would arguably find it much easier than the UK leaving the EU.

This is because they would have a wealth of trade blocs to choose from, including the EU itself, or at least the EFTA, that would be a massive shortcut to getting the country back on its feet.

As we've ruled that out, we've made it considerably harder for ourselves.

 

[Mr D]

So can we hire some experienced trade negotiators from the private sector?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

So can we hire some experienced trade negotiators from the private sector?

I wouldn't be surprised if we did.

It's possible, certainly. Public bodies hire external consultants and specialists all the time.

 

[KM-Tiger]

So can we hire some experienced trade negotiators from the private sector?

Yes, we can.

I can't find a reference right now, but there is a highly rated man from New Zealand who has offered his services. Or at least did shortly after the Brexit vote.

 

[Gecko001]

Yes, we can.

I can't find a reference right now, but there is a highly rated man from New Zealand who has offered his services. Or at least did shortly after the Brexit vote.

He is call Crawford Falconer..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ord-falconer-as-u-k-chief-trade-talks-adviser

 

[Mr D]

Yes, we can.

I can't find a reference right now, but there is a highly rated man from New Zealand who has offered his services. Or at least did shortly after the Brexit vote.

So the fact we don't have any experienced trade deal negotiators then isn't a problem. Hire some until we get experienced trade deal negotiators.

 

[KM-Tiger]

So the fact we don't have any experienced trade deal negotiators then isn't a problem. Hire some until we get experienced trade deal negotiators.

What else can we do? We've had 40 years of not negotiating trade deals, that's a whole generation of experience not gained.

So we will need help of at least 10 years I would have thought. No shame in that, let's get on with it.

 

[Mr D]

What else can we do? We've had 40 years of not negotiating trade deals, that's a whole generation of experience not gained.

So we will need help of at least 10 years I would have thought. No shame in that, let's get on with it.

Could have been worse, we could have been training people on trade negotiations then have them sat around their entire career not doing trade negotiations.

These days I hear we have sailors who don't know how to crew a ship of the line and won't fire cannon. Good thing too.

 

[Gecko001]

Most people experienced in trade negotiations presently in the UK are probably in nursing homes at the minute. You cannot just hire people that do not exist. There is no expertise tap that can be turned on.

 

[Mr D]

Most people experienced in trade negotiations presently in the UK are probably in nursing homes at the minute. You cannot just hire people that do not exist. There is no expertise tap that can be turned on.

Unless they are based in the UK or currently working in the UK. Private sector staff can be found all over the place, not necessarily working in the same job they have done elsewhere.
What are the odds that some with the relevant expertise have already been hired?

 

[Cobby]

Not on my Twitter timeline they haven't.

Have you got some good recommendations for some prominent, level-headed, rational Leavers to follow on Twitter? I've had to drop almost all of them over the last year as they've become far more aggressive, and they increasingly deny the reality presented to them.

And that ECJ jurisdiction isn't as bad as it sounds. It's only in respect of citizenship issues, and only if the UK Supreme Court decides to refer to them. Actually quite a big climbdown by the EU who wanted jurisdiction in perpetuity.

The way this is being interpreted (esp. by Leavers) is extremely concerning.

Davis made a preliminary deal to move negotiations on. This included certain citizens rights (poorly negotiated on behalf of our citizens, but whatever) - and as such implying those rights will be respected. Not just "enshrined in UK Law" but actually respected.

Why? Because he left those negotiations and immediately began performing for the right-wing press with posturing about how he could renege on those arrangements! Rees-Mogg has also been vocal in the same vein.

It's not "legally binding" but it is "politically binding" (as was the referendum). If we think we can get our special "Canada Plus Plus Plus" deal (which we won't) and then simply undo the arrangements we dislike later on, we are sorely mistaken. As has been said, either all is agreed or nothing is agreed.

They are burning through the last of our nation's international reputation and should Brexit go ahead, negotiating new trade deals - already difficult due to our weak position and lack of leverage - will be exponentially more difficult.

David Davis popped up on LBC after appearing on Marr, and said: "I don't have to be very clever or know very much to do my job". He may not be a very good negotiator but he's at least self aware.

 

[Cobby]

So we will need help of at least 10 years I would have thought. No shame in that, let's get on with it.

Or, as humans with limited life spans and more information than we had 18 months ago, we could choose to *not* make 1/6th of it unnecessarily hard on ourselves and our citizens. No shame in that.

If we think we can get our special "Canada Plus Plus Plus" deal (which we won't)

The same restrictions are always going to apply, no matter the fantasy of the vocal Brexiteers; if we want access to the single market, we abide by its rules and we get the benefit along with the responsibilities.

A "special", "exceptional", "unique" deal (as it has been called so far) is unlikely for a number of reasons, but a big one is that any concessions granted us must also be granted to others with an EU FTA, such as South Korea.

 

[KM-Tiger]

if we want access to the single market, we abide by its rules

You are confusing 'access' with membership. Any country has access, eg USA, China, who are not members.

 

[Cobby]

You are confusing 'access' with membership. Any country has access, eg USA, China, who are not members.

No, I'm not. If a country wishes to trade goods on that market then they have to, at minimum, adhere to its standards. Depending on the deal in place, some FoM can be included, where such rights must then be adhered to.

Certainly with regards to our own negotiations, Brexiteers and the Government seem to believe we can somehow be exempt to these rules and regulations because, well, Great Britain. It's quite perplexing that the Telegraph and Daily Mail are able to build their narratives upon this impossibility.

 

[Gecko001]

Unless they are based in the UK or currently working in the UK. Private sector staff can be found all over the place, not necessarily working in the same job they have done elsewhere.
What are the odds that some with the relevant expertise have already been hired?

Maybe you should give David Davis a ring and tell them about these private sector negotiators that are all over the world.

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/ministers-blow-1m-headhunters-brexit-trade-negotiators/

There is actually a tiny pool of negotiators and very few who want to harm their reputation and I presume their future fee-earning potential by having anything to do with what they see as an impossible task.

 

[Mr D]

Maybe you should give David Davis a ring and tell them about these private sector negotiators that are all over the world.

https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/ministers-blow-1m-headhunters-brexit-trade-negotiators/

There is actually a tiny pool of negotiators and very few who want to harm their reputation and I presume their future fee-earning potential by having anything to do with what they see as an impossible task.

So negotiators working for any one of over a hundred countries, plus EU negotiators - they just do the one job all their working life, retire then don't bother working again?
No one leaves the service of their government after getting experience?

 

[Gecko001]

H

d said: "I don't have to be very clever or know very much to do my job". He may not be a very good negotiator but he's at least self aware.

What has this to do with right-wing left-wing politics. If a Labour Government had been elected in the last two General Elections we would probably have had a referendum since that was in the Labour manifesto, the referendum result would probably have been just the same and the attitude coming from the EU about the UK negotiating position would probably be just the same.

It is quite likely that there will be several flavours of governments (Labour, Conservation, coalition- take your pick) before we have Brexit sorted out. It is unlikely that any of the major parties will stand for election on an anti-Brexit platform.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

What has this to do with right-wing left-wing politics. If a Labour Government had been elected in the last two General Elections we would probably have had a referendum since that was in the Labour manifesto, the referendum result would probably have been just the same and the attitude coming from the EU about the UK negotiating position would probably be just the same.

Mind you, if a Labour government was in power and launched the referendum instead, I'm really not sure how the result could have gone.

I still firmly believe that a chunk of the leave vote was down to people sticking two fingers up at Cameron and the Tories - particularly amongst the working class. After so many years of austerity, it was a bitter pill to swallow for lefties to side with Dave, and also the perfect opportunity to get one over on him if they voted the other way.

There was also deep-seated distrust. The mere fact that the Conservative government supported it made many sceptical as to the reasons.

Another key factor was how important people felt their vote would be. The vast majority of opinion polls were showing a comfortable remain win. That could have made many people feel as though they could cast a protest vote against the government for leave while still getting the remain result they wanted.

This video is very telling:

London, London, London. "People versus the power". You would think they were talking about a general election.

I think if Labour was in power when the referendum happened, and they led the way, more Labour voters and working class people would have voted to remain. The question is whether that would have also had the opposite effect and resulted in more Conservative supporters voting to leave.

 

[Mr D]

What has this to do with right-wing left-wing politics. If a Labour Government had been elected in the last two General Elections we would probably have had a referendum since that was in the Labour manifesto, the referendum result would probably have been just the same and the attitude coming from the EU about the UK negotiating position would probably be just the same.

It is quite likely that there will be several flavours of governments (Labour, Conservation, coalition- take your pick) before we have Brexit sorted out. It is unlikely that any of the major parties will stand for election on an anti-Brexit platform.

The referendum was in a previous Labour manifesto, 2005. What year did we have a referendum? 2016.

Yes, quite likely to have multiple governments before Brexit is entirely finished.

 

[Mr D]

Mind you, if a Labour government was in power and launched the referendum instead, I'm really not sure how the result could have gone.

I still firmly believe that a chunk of the leave vote was down to people sticking two fingers up at Cameron and the Tories - particularly amongst the working class. After so many years of austerity, it was a bitter pill to swallow for lefties to side with Dave, and also the perfect opportunity to get one over on him if they voted the other way.

.

What was the official position of the other parties in the referendum, besides UKIP?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

What was the official position of the other parties in the referendum, besides UKIP?

I presume that's a rhetorical question, but it doesn't really matter.

Plenty of people, particularly amongst the working class, saw this as a golden opportunity to get one over on the Conservative Government. Perhaps the only chance.

Even if Labour did support remain, it didn't change that opportunity. Nor did it change the deep-seated anger that a lot of people, particularly in the northern towns such as Sunderland, have towards the Tories (coal mines etc).

What would have been very interesting is if Labour was in power, the Conservative Party backed leave, and people saw this as an opportunity to get back at the Tories by voting remain.

All that aside, I really do think that the Government supporting remain probably did the cause more harm than good overall. I don't think it persuaded many people to switch from leave to remain, but I do think it persuaded a lot of people to switch from remain to leave.

 

[Mr D]

Yes, noticed that in the general election before the referendum and the general election afterwards the Conservatives had an increase in votes. 2010 was 10.7 million votes, 2015 was 11.3 million 2016 was 13.6 million.
Labour also had an increase in each election.

For people wanting to protest at a government they seem remarkably like increasing the total voting for it by millions.

It could well be that for a lot of voters the issue was within the referendum itself rather than the political party.
As has been said a few times on here immigration was an issue for some people.
It will still be an issue for them after Brexit. Just without the EU being to blame we'll be able to blame our own parliament.
Of course they can add to the perceived problem at least as easily as they can deal with it.

 

[simon field]

It's staggering how much is being read into all this - when there's really no need! It's such a waste of energy, of brain power. Absolute guesswork all of it!

Ever since I can remember, we've been encouraged into 'vote for this and together we can change that' mentality, where bringing about change = a good thing. There's even a website named 'change.org'!

We all know that nothing can stay the same forever. It's often said that people are afraid of change. No they're not, they love it and they want it! Out with the stale old same old same old, it's had its time, now it's time to let somebody (or something) else have a turn.

My local village post office got all flustered recently when rumours began that Co-Op were eyeing up a nearby site to build & open a shop - complete with built-in post office! A petition soon appeared on the counter encouraging people to support the current little outfit (family-owned, established 40+ years) but the only people who signed it were their friends & family and a few local thickies.

'What??? You don't want to continue paying £2.85 for a tiny jar of Nescafe???'

'You don't want us to run out of everything except long-life bread rolls and manky old bananas by 2 o'clock on a Saturday????'

'You want better choice, better value, fresher food, cleaner environment, higher employment in the village, a more efficient streamlined service???'

'HOW CAN THAT POSSIBLY BE???'

Fact is, they've had their time. They had a good run and now it'll soon be someone else's turn, hopefully. Nothing can stay the same forever, simple as that.

The majority of EU in/out voters simply fancied a change from the bog-standard, that's all! They're not racist, nor easily led by slimy mouthpiece politicians, swayed by the Mail or Express, Guardian or whatever guff gets pumped out on TV. They simply decided to shake off the lumbering old has-been po-faced crowd for something different!

It'll probably be a very long time, decades or generations before everything settles down and things get to ticking along nicely. In the meantime all sorts of things will get blamed on Brexit and the fact is, that nobody knows what would've happened in the far future anyway - one way or t'other.

Total Guesswork all of it

 

[Jeff FV]

But I bet the Co-op had done a fair bit of planning and financial modelling to arrive at the conclusion that their new store would be a success.

Our government has no plan and no idea.

 

[simon field]

But it won't be the government who shape the future - it will be the people

The Co-Op - I would imagine - simply popped into the old post office / 'happy shopper' and saw how crap it was!

 

[Jeff FV]

But it won't be the government who shape the future - it will be the people

Nah, won't be the people, it'll be a few media barons

 

[simon field]

People don't trust the media anymore. Things have moved on since then

 

[Jeff FV]

People like to think they don't get swayed by the media, but they do.

Politicians certainly dance to the press baron's tune

 

[Mr D]

But it won't be the government who shape the future - it will be the people

The Co-Op - I would imagine - simply popped into the old post office / 'happy shopper' and saw how crap it was!

Government decisions have a bit more impact than most people's. Just ask users of food banks.

 

[simon field]

...or all the people who can afford to buy coffee at £4 a go!

 

[Cobby]

Absolute guesswork all of it!

It's complete guesswork, right? Apart from all the professionals with decades of experience and huge, complex sets of data and trend information to work from. But other than all that non-guesswork stuff, it's just guesswork!

The majority of EU in/out voters simply fancied a change from the bog-standard, that's all!

Ah, I stand corrected, now that's some non-data, unreasoned guesswork.

I think I'm going to start posting the big Family Fortunes "X" every time a Leaver claims a single motive for the entire electorate or all other Leave voters.

It is unlikely that any of the major parties will stand for election on an anti-Brexit platform.

The Lib Dems seem to be leaning that way, but while we still have FPTP, they aren't worth voting for, especially with the current Conservative Party drifting so far to the right. Also, Corbyn's a Eurosceptic but is getting the benefit of the doubt from many Remainers because, given the two-party system we have, they're the better option for not wrecking the country with a poorly executed, self-damaging Brexit. Who'da thunk it!?

 

[Cobby]

People like to think they don't get swayed by the media, but they do.

Politicians certainly dance to the press baron's tune

Absolutely. Do people think this:

...has nothing to do with this:

 

[Cobby]

...or all the people who can afford to buy coffee at £4 a go!

...or all the people who can afford to buy packs of cigarettes at £12 a go??

 

[simon field]

I think I'm going to start posting the big Family Fortunes "X" every time a Leaver claims a single motive for the entire electorate or all other Leave voters.

I voted to remain - my post is simply helping those who like to pigeonhole leave voters to see that just as people who *like* the EU had various reasons for voting the way they did, so then do people who *dislike* the EU.

 

[simon field]

...or all the people who can afford to buy packs of cigarettes at £12 a go??

Are you suggesting that they're addicted to coffee?