I suspect the big thing in this budget will be a clarification and tougening up
of income shifting.
There'll be no "clarification" at all. That would imply actually creating a tax law which was fully understandable and relatively easy to self-assess. The whole point of recent tax legislation is to muddy the waters, to try to get people to pay more tax voluntarily, by inferring that they are liable and using idle threatens to get people to pay. If you read the HMRC website, you could easily be forgiven for thinking that IR35 for example applies to virtually anyone supplying their services through their own limited company - the fact is that HMRC have won only a handful of cases and lost hundreds - the underlying legislation being completely incoherent as regards real life.
As for "toughening up" income shifting, there is actually no law against income shifting at the moment, so if one was brought in, it would be a new law. But, somehow I feel that the politicians will spin it so that it sounds as if there always has been a law and that those "naughty" self employed have either been taking advantage of a loophole or have simply been breaking the law, neither of which is true.
Income shifting is fast becomming a political hot potato. A few leading commentators who have contacts "in the know" are suggesting that it will be watered down or even not introduced at all tomorrow. There are reports that it is HMRC who are pushing for it, but there is an apparent lack of political will within the Treasury. It is very strange that other leading and growing economies are actually going the opposite way and bringing in new laws allowing the transfer of unused allowances and reliefs between spouses. After all, there is a general "free for all" tax free system of transfers between spouses for capital gains tax purposes, and also effective tax free transfers for inheritance tax, so it is illogical not to allow the same for income tax.
It is, however, fair that some people are aggrieved about "income shifting" - i.e. those who are employed and can't arrange their own tax affairs to their advantage. For example, a couple earning £25k each pay a lot less tax than they would if one worked for £50k and the other didn't work - that is not fair either.
Hopefully, there has been enough of any outcry to make them stop and think for once before running headlong into another policy disaster from which they'll have to perform a u-turn in the not too distant future. If they believe that there are certain businesses or types of business that are taking advantage of the existing system, then they should bring in restrictive and directed legislation at those only, not drag every husband/wife business into an unworkable and bureaucratic nightmare.