no credit crunch here

[MH1]

Nice to see someone doing well, but the vast majority of businesses will find the recession effects them, being completely out of their own control.

If Vauxhalls factory was to shut for 9 months as the company wishes, imagine the knock on problems that will cause since the company will be shut and the workers on 30% pay.

11,000 people being put out of work each week will cause huge problems for many businesses.

 

[360interactive]

If I was to go with some of the views people have about the recession I may aswell give up and build a bunker in my back garden....

It's driving me mad.

 

[maria102]

If I was to go with some of the views people have about the recession I may aswell give up and build a bunker in my back garden....

It's driving me mad.

If you think the same as me, thats exactly right, "we're all doomed" - maybe we are but I may well get hit by a bus tomorrow (or with my track record I may hit the bus), though if I just sit on the road paralysed with fear, its more likely to come true.

 

[Thorsun]

I do feel bad for all the people that lose their jobs during hard times like these. However, I do feel that this is an exciting time as well because it opens up plenty of opportunities that weren't there in the past. New millionaires are made during times like these when the balance of power shifts. It is also a time for those that have been greedy and careless to get what's been coming to them.

Yes, the present time, with all its troubles, sucks... but I believe we are about to enter a brand new era of inventions and innovations.

 

[Spongebob]

Yes, we are in a recession, and its going to be a bad one.

However, downturns like this provide opportunities for small businesses. Bigger competitors who have become bloated and complacent during the boom years will go bust - particularly if they are servicing high levels of debt.

This opens up new business opportunities for the lean, efficient operator. Then, when things start to turn up, the business can grow. Many successful companies have their origins in times of recession.

Just don't become bloated and complacent...

Bob

 

[oldeagleeye]

Spigwell old mate. I am not denying that there has been a downturn in the economy but it is just that. The typical downturn we see every 7 years or so and yes every business should plan for it. The point is however that for most business it's swings and roundabouts.

You said for instance that your own sales are down by just over 50% but that repairs mere more than doubled. Has the bottom line then changed that much. A builder might not be asked to build a new house but it seems the demand for home improvements like loft extentions is booming as people stay put. So OK. You can't expect the phone to ring all day long expecting cask in your back pocket fromevery call. On the other hand you can't expect to sit at home waiting however. Itis time to swap t6he cahiers hat for the marketing one.

Yes - the high street is struggling but it has been for some 5 years now and while at first the pundits denied it the facts are there and that is much of the loss of trade is down to the Internet. I think it was in 2003 for instance that they were talking about On-line shopping reaching some £12 Billion a year. Last year it seems sales topped over $220 Billion.Most market research also suggests that the 20 - 30% growth in on-line shopping will continue.

What amazes me however is WHY the high street is complaining.

You name it. W H Smith - Next - PC World - Dixon's - Tesco - Sainsbury -Argos and yes - even Woolworth's have ALL been encouraging people to shop-on line by offering extra discounts. To then turn around and complain about the recession is a bit rich (if you excuse the pun) As I said before it is all a merrygoround.

I have also said that we needed this shake out. We had the ludicrous situation of banks lending people that couldn't afford to rent a 1 bed flat the money to buy 3 bed semi detached houses. The ridiculous situation whereby people thought that they could buy to rent and make £20,000 - £40,000 every year simply laying in bed while at the same time a professional couple had no chance whatever of getting a foot on the housing ladder. In short we need to get back to the times when people bought a house to be a home - not make a fortune out of it.

As for the doom and gloom merchants. I believe Jan will see anew optimism and as for our paying back these loans for donkeys years. There is one simple solution and one which will guarantee the Tories a win at the next general election if they are shrewd enough to put it into their manifesto and that is to pull us out of Europe. After all why should we subsidise French farmers with one cow. Subsidise Spain - Portugal & Greece.

The old red herrings about a war in Europe don't wash anymore. We live in a global world now and that dispenses with the other old fish too - trade. Britain has always been a trading nation and countries will always trade with others that offer the best deal. END OF RANT

 

[citruslime]

We provide e-commece and retail systems to specialist retailers (mainly Outdoor/Cycle/lifestyle) and whilst some are definitely suffering the majority are seeing growth (particularly strong on-line).

Those businesses that are spending on marketing and merchandising well are growing rapidly. I think the smaller retailers with e-commerce sites are taking market share off the big boys - after all wouldn't you rather order from someone who knows the product and cares about you as a customer.

Once of our retailers (who turn over several million and have had their e-commerce site for three years) has already done more sales this December (as of the 12th) than they did in the whole 30 days last year. We expect them to close the month having taken nearly twice the revenue (at a similar margin so not discount driven).

I would say this as its fundamentally what we sell, but you need a stock integrated e-commerce and retail system, which is SEO friendly and flexible enough design wise to allow you to build your brand if your involved in SME retail now. I think what I'm saying here is that good business' who continue to invest will do well, those that are already in poor shape will go to the wall.

Our own order book has also increased. We noticed our competition cut back on their marketing so we've increased our spend and seen an increase in orders, so retailers are still prepared to invest in systems and marketing.

Neil from CitrusRetail

 

[Hogrill]

The only thing I would like is for the media to offer a more balanced view of the situation. The stories they run are I would say all most without failure negative.

As can be seen from this forum there are positives out there and they should give a bit of space to reporting on them.

As for the situation whenever I ask my accountant how generally things are as he has clients in all sectors his response is some are struggling and some flourishing. But that has been the same answer whenever Ive asked the question during the 10 years Ive known him.

The only difference is, he does moan about the lack of finance availability.

 

[Ian J]

Woolies and MFI hadn't changed the way they did business since the early 80's, thats why they failed.

It seems that whenever the topic of recession is brought up Woolies is always trotted out as the prime example of a recession casualty but not only was this particular group stuck in a time warp they were effectively finished off when they demerged from Kingfisher who first sold and leased back all of the best properties, keeping the proceeds themselves whilst stuffing Woolworths with some expensive leases to maintain.

Whilst many small niche businesses like that of the OP may cary on regardless or even prosper the vast majority will be suffering as consumer spending is down and that has a knock on effect for almost everyone.

I am one of the businesses that profit when cash flow is tight as people still need cash to run their businesses so many more turn to factoring and therefore me when times are tough. The trouble is that the factoring companies are becoming more selective and are wary of many industries at the moment. Many companies will only supply other companies if they can obtain credit insurance limits which causes a problem when some of the major names in credit insurance are refusing to underwrite any new risks in retail at all.

Many people have much more money to spend than they did a few months ago due to the reduction on mortgage rates but they aren't spending as they are concerned about their own financial futures and we are either going to have to adapt to a new type of society where we don't have a new car every year or two and a lifestyle built on credit or else the Government are going to have to convince people that the future is bright and try and restore some confidence in the spending public.

 

[Ian J]

whenever I ask my accountant how generally things are as he has clients in all sectors his response is some are struggling and some flourishing.

The only difference is, he does moan about the lack of finance availability.

It is definately getting tougher in the commercial finance market. A few months ago there wasn't a deal for factoring or invoice discounting that I couldn't place somewhere but now the funders are being far more choosy. Obviously it is going to be difficult to find finance for a company selling to the motor manufacturing industry but the knock on effect means that it's also more difficult to find funding for companies that sell to suppliers to the motor industry and the domino effect of the failure of such automotive suppliers like Wagon plc will be felt all round the industry down to the smallest subcontractor

 

[Gillie]

Ian you can't say that more people have more money due to mortgages rates coming down ... over 50% of all mortgages are fixed rate and most are stuck with them until their term ends, and only 40% are tracker mortgages, but of that 40% one third are also stuck with 'collar' rates, ie their rate will not fall below a level set by the bank ... so not true tracker mortgages!

 

I've been planning for next year for most of the second half of this one tbh - it is gonna be a rough ride, and only those who put the extra effort in are going to survive I think.

Lots of people are seeing an upturn - but this is because of the extra effort they are putting in - we are still busier month on month, but we do not take that for granted.

If you just bury your head in the sand, and hope it will blow over, then you are only making a rod to beat yourself with.

 

[Rufford]

My sales have rocketed both online and in the shop! Maybe if the media talked more about businesses that are doing well consumers would have more confidence!
I did have one lady who rang me first just to check we were not going to go bust before ordering! I am pleased to say no fear of that We are doing really well with both sites, in fact I am extending the shop opening hours next week just to cope and we are having to go in on a sunday and in the evening to sort orders out,
If this is a recession i can't wait for when we hit the good times then

Well done but please don't speak too soon

 

[JustOneUK]

Oh I do like it when the media gets blamed for the credit crunch! Makes a change from greedy bankers!

I'd say the media certainly played their part.

 

[BeautyScientist]

Bubbles like the one we have just seen are pretty regular occurences. I think the fear and greed of the people involved is what is going on. You can't really blame the media.

 

[estwig]

Ian you can't say that more people have more money due to mortgages rates coming down ... over 50% of all mortgages are fixed rate and most are stuck with them until their term ends, and only 40% are tracker mortgages, but of that 40% one third are also stuck with 'collar' rates, ie their rate will not fall below a level set by the bank ... so not true tracker mortgages!

My mortgage is now at 2.3%

Didn't see the point in fixed rate, isn't it obvious that you will pay more, cause the bean counters at the mortgage company know their stuff and will cover themselves no matter what.

 

[An Oasis]

You can't really blame the media.

Depends on your definition of media. As far as I can see most of them totally useless, their hands are tied in terms of research and their companies are beholden to governments and large corporations (in terms of advertising) which mean they have to tread a very careful path...draw your real world conclusions from that. It certainly is not unbiased.

 

[Matt1959]

how did you get it at 2.3% I feel like a sucker - we're with Standard Life who have now begrudgingly agreed to drop their variable rate about 0.8% to 5.79% if I remember rightly - thats the first drop since the November cut and doesns't come until January. Trouble is we're stuffed becuase we have a substantial overpayment with them from 4 years ago.

 

[estwig]

Sorry my bad, it drops to 2.34% in January.

It's a tracker mortgage thingy, with Halifax

 

[Matt1959]

well tis a great deal - bet they love you:redface:

 

[Chippie]

Ian you can't say that more people have more money due to mortgages rates coming down ... over 50% of all mortgages are fixed rate and most are stuck with them until their term ends, and only 40% are tracker mortgages, but of that 40% one third are also stuck with 'collar' rates, ie their rate will not fall below a level set by the bank ... so not true tracker mortgages!

Over our various mortgages (personal and several BTL'S) we are now about £850 pm better off as they're all (with one fixed rate exception) non-collar trackers! GREAT! Looking to get a great deal in Florida with the spare cash!

 

[greenfingers]

If every adult in UK all put one pound in a pot we might have what forty million? Can't we then give it one million to forty people (chosen at random) & make them spend it all in a month on stuff, absolutely any
stuff that they like! so long as a panel of twelve of us business people say its good for the economy?
-then we generate loads of media hype-loads of fuss-and ....a few bloody great television ducumentaries(that they would be obliged to let us make and watch) We would get some serious money thrown around -yes in the pub-yes-at the races yes eating out yes build an extension on the house,yes pay your mortgage,off-No to a mansion (Cos Them's
the rules)yes buy a car,buy two...so long as you splash it about employing people and buying british stuff (cos them's the rules got to spend it here on us and our workmen & our stuff)
It may not fix everything but i bet it stimulates a few economies locally
as the media circus rents every hotel room in
town following these
forty carefully equidistant strategically geographically spread
out lucky blighters. Then they get to write their books which sell well etcetera-
Idea mine and copyrighted-today 14 DEC 2008 Martin stephens
RECKON WE COULD TURN THIS INTO A MONEY SPINNER?.
Thougts please??

 

[Hogrill]

Idea mine and copyrighted-today 14 DEC 2008 Martin stephens
RECKON WE COULD TURN THIS INTO A MONEY SPINNER?.
Thougts please??

This is already being done with all the money the Government is spending on the situation. The Vat reduction alone is estimated to cost £12 billion.
As taxpayers it will be us that ultimately will pick up the bill.

£40 million would have next to no impact on the majority of people just on the few lucky individuals and companies that would benefit.

 

[Ian J]

I'm not sure that spending alone is the answer as I've just bought a German car, a 50" Japanese plasma, a giant American subwoofer to match my American loudspeakers and a Japanese amplifier to round it off. I suppose that will have given some support to the country's retail and dsitribution industries but has nothing at all for manufacturing.

Incidentally with the recent mortgage rate cuts my mortgage payments are now less than my car payments

 

[oldeagleeye]

I'm not sure that spending alone is the answer as I've just bought a German car, a 50" Japanese plasma, a giant American subwoofer to match my American loudspeakers and a Japanese amplifier to round it off. I suppose that will have given some support to the country's retail and dsitribution industries but has nothing at all for manufacturing.

Incidentally with the recent mortgage rate cuts my mortgage payments are now less than my car payments

And there's me thinking that Flashy went out with 20oz gold bracelets and Tom Jones gold chains.

 

[oldeagleeye]

Sorry to go slightly off thread but I would like to ask a serious question that might put the recession into context to the benefit of all - but first a bit of background.

Because of the exceptional doom and gloom these last two months and with crimbo being a quiet time for the commercial sector other that for mostly retail business I have delayed the launch of my own until Jan.

The product is in fact an exclusive business continuity package for small businesses where there is not only a demand but a need due to compliance issues. In short my target market has to buy somewhere and I have the only package in town that offers hassle free and cost-effective - or it was. Following recent events however I have now made it a 'must have' by building in full IT support. So for one modest month fee my customers will be getting.

A Free business Continuity Plan. The ultimate in off-site data back up. Emergency Office space on demand. The support of our own professional Executive Action Incident Management and DR team and 24/7 on-site IT support.

Incidentaly. Any cynics out there. I am not touting for business. This package is will only be avialable in the London area and we already have a huge database of highly qualified leads.

The question is then - what effect do you think that the current downturn going to have on my projections made 4 or 5 months ago.

According to the governments own projections on the effects of the recession they are looking at a slowdown of just 2%-3%. I could laugh at that so would appreciate members views. I am not going to give the pricing but it is less than the cost of the IT support alone. Less in fact than employing a temp filing clerk for a day a month.

 

[Chippie]

Sorry Oldeagleeye, but what is a "Business Continuity Plan"??? :|
Or is it just me? (PS. I am not a cynic!)

 

[Hogrill]

The question is then - what effect do you think that the current downturn going to have on my projections made 4 or 5 months ago.

I don't know the answer to that as its quite a specialised area but I am curious about 1 thing if you don't mind answering it.

If you have 15 companies on the books do you have to have the available resources to support and accommodate all of them in 1 go as a worse case scenario or can you work on a % basis.

 

[oldeagleeye]

Your in the West Midlands Chippie. Last year the floods caused havoc in the North East. 300,000 people were effected. Over 20,000 business. Many premises with all their equipment coated in sewage. Few of those businesses had a Business Continuity Plan.

Now go back to 9/11. Hundreds of people killed. Offices including those of the FBI and Pentagon blown to smithereens. Come back home. The Bunceford Oil Refinery fire. A relatively small company devastated by the explosion. What do they all have in common. A BCM plan.

Within 4 hrs the Disaster Recovery teams were relocated to new offices. Within a day all those businesses were up and running again. Extreme cases maybe - but if those had been small business they would have been wiped out. Gone forever and small business are at the greatest risk.

A theft. 99 % of IT equipment stolen is never recovered and what do you do if your a solicitor or accountant with clients to meet. A Fire the same. All the emergency services in London believe that it is not now a question of IF London will flood but WHEN because we are not talking a huge Somali here. Just a simple combination of high winds at high tide. There were more than a dozen such warnings last year.

A business continuity plan can not of course protect you from those risks. It can however save your business and your business reputation by assessing the risks that your particular business faces and making contingency plans. On top of that you would of course have to have a team prepared and capable of seeing you through from incident to recovery. Cost of DIY. A small fortune and a lot of hassle.

My own package covers everything - and I do mean everything. In fact one simple phone call and our clients are relocated to safe business centres with emergency telecom's so that they can carry on business.

A theft - fire or flood we get on with the logistics. Boarding up premises. Sending in the clean up squad. Liasing with loss adjusters and as we provide an audit and full IT support they have instant valuations of equipment for fast payout.

My company can't help you Chippie but I would be happy to provide you with a BCM plan and if there is anyone in the Midlands /North East that would like to follow our business model PM me. I am not interested in franchising out but I might just set you up for a fee. Potential returns. £250K a year pre-tax.

 

[Chippie]

Thanks Oldeagleeye, you must be a touch typist too!!

 

[oldeagleeye]

Hoghil.

As said we only operate in the London area - although some of our emergency business centres are on the outskirts well away from the flood plains. All our clients will then be in a relaively compact area and we can easily service 200 clients. We have for instant over 1000 hot desks a phone call away. It terms of IT support we allow for a twice a year service which should kep emegency breadown to a minmium - and that is all I am going to say I am afraid. I amnot going to give away my business plan. Rob

 

[telemax]

It's something that a lot of companies have thought about but keep putting off. There are so many companies in the City who cannot afford to be out of their offices and on trading even for a day. I would think that larger banks already have this in place but some of the smaller fianancial and insurance companies don't. You also have the advantage that there aren't a lot of people out there doing what you do making it more likely that you will get to speak to the right person.

Hoghil.

As said we only operate in the London area - although some of our emergency business centres are on the outskirts well away from the flood plains. All our clients will then be in a relaively compact area and we can easily service 200 clients. We have for instant over 1000 hot desks a phone call away. It terms of IT support we allow for a twice a year service which should kep emegency breadown to a minmium - and that is all I am going to say I am afraid. I amnot going to give away my business plan. Rob

 

[oldeagleeye]

Thanks Telemax.

All the banks and the bi corporations do have a fully fledged BCM plan of course - but our is actually better. They need to employ a DR team. We take on that task.

I should also mention that we use the same I.B.M business continuity facilities for data storage as the big corporations. It really is a truly exclusive package but no comments on the downturn yet although I have had several PM's from members intrested in setting up in other areas.

Let me say then that I am planning for a whooping 50% downturn and I and my business partner will still make a lot of money in year 1. Can anyone see it getting worse than that ?.

 

[Hogrill]

Hoghil.

As said we only operate in the London area - although some of our emergency business centres are on the outskirts well away from the flood plains. All our clients will then be in a relaively compact area and we can easily service 200 clients. We have for instant over 1000 hot desks a phone call away. It terms of IT support we allow for a twice a year service which should kep emegency breadown to a minmium - and that is all I am going to say I am afraid. I amnot going to give away my business plan. Rob

Its not something I have any involvement in, it was pure curiosity as ive seen this sort of thing advertised before and just could not imagine a guaranteed 100% backup as you would be replicating their existing setup.

I understand not wanting to say any more but thanks for the response.

 

[oldeagleeye]

You lost me Hoghill with the 100% back-up. We do it twice. The first time we take a snap shot of the entire operating system and save it on disc. This is saved in our Time Vault. In the event of a total loss a new server can be up and running within an hour. re-installed by our own technician. This snap shot archiving happens at least twice a year. Then those discs are fed directly into our data vaults so that working files only need to be backed up. This allows for fast incremental backups.

I can assure you then that we can offer 100% support right across the board and if London floods I can tell you this. As bankers draft will be on it's way in a flash to Sir Earl for a couple of Seadoos so we can rescue our clients trapped in offices if need be.

 

[Hogrill]

You lost me Hoghill with the 100% back-up.

I can assure you then that we can offer 100% support right across the board and if London floods I can tell you this. As bankers draft will be on it's way in a flash to Sir Earl for a couple of Seadoos so we can rescue our clients trapped in offices if need be.

Sorry poorly put, i wasn't referring to the system backup but their complete operation. My original question was regarding the percentage of the overall businesses on your books that can be supported in the unlikely event they all required the service at one time.

You mentioned 200 clients and having access to 1000 hotdesks which is 5 per client. If in real terms each client has 10 employees then if in the unlikely event they all required your service at one time then there is only desks available for 50%.

If I was looking for this service its something I may ask because capacity of overall client base would give me an indication of their ability to support my organisation in times of crisis. If one of your rivals only has 100 desks available then based on clients having 2000 employees thats only 5% capacity.

I wasn't in any questioning your setup.

 

[oldeagleeye]

Fair question. First our product is aimed at the SME. typical workforce 5 - 12 employees. 2nd. Only 2 key personal would initially be relocated to hot desks purely as an emergency so as to have access to telecom's etc. If the incident is a major one they would move into serviced office space. We have a huge number on our books ranging from small 2-5 people to more than 12.

The idea of relocating 2,000 in an emgergency is if I may say somewhat ridiculous. Most of the major banks for example have a max 10 hot desks set aside

3rd. We have no rivals. There are companies that offer off-site data storage. There are consultancies by the dozen that offer advice on BSM - but none that will come out at 6 am on a freezing cold morning to ensure the office is boarded up surely. There are a few companies that offer 24/7 on-site IT maintenaince and they are damned expensive.

We are then the only company that offers a complete cost-effective and hassle free BCM solution to the SME.

 

[borischarlton]

Well I'm going to because after New Year I am going to redecorate, put in 2 new bathrooms, retile the kitchen floor and walls, put in wooden floors and new carpet and buy completely new lighting and swanky designer furniture. I will go on a real splurge and don't care about the value of the property or what I spend because I am going to be staying put for many years. Can't wait!



Great!!!!!! I have some fabulous showers and taps for sale!!!! And I know a great tile supplier

Rob

 

[Chippie]

Well I'm going to because after New Year I am going to redecorate, put in 2 new bathrooms, retile the kitchen floor and walls, put in wooden floors and new carpet and buy completely new lighting and swanky designer furniture. I will go on a real splurge and don't care about the value of the property or what I spend because I am going to be staying put for many years. Can't wait!



Great!!!!!! I have some fabulous showers and taps for sale!!!! And I know a great tile supplier

Rob

Now that has got me completely and utterly lost! Is that reply on the right thread? When you say at the start "Well I'm going to......" you are going to what?? Have I missed something? Is it me? HELP! :|

 

[Proximitum]

We are then the only company that offers a complete cost-effective and hassle free BCM solution to the SME.

This is a pretty bold statement.