Chinese virus

[Mr D]

We’ve just had the third case of CV-19 announced in our county.

The latest one is a Cheltenham resident. There is a lot of chatter as to whether the event should be going ahead. In theory around 250,000 people will descend on the town over the 4 days and many will be staying in accommodation in other local towns (our towns restaurants, pubs and hoteliers always do well as we are a short drive away).

What are other people’s thoughts on this?
It would have a big (negative) impact on Cheltenham businesses if it’s cancelled, but this is the first major event in the UK since the disease took hold and has the potential to spread it quite quickly.

Lots of festivals, events, stuff that brings in money to the area going on much of the time.
This one - should it go ahead and other events cancelled next week onwards?

Every event that doesn't go ahead will impact in that area. People not able to go away for the day and spend money at a distant event will affect your area throughout the year.

Do you want the money now plus money from cancelling other events elsewhere?

Will people recall where they possibly picked up the virus and not go there again?

 

[Mr D]

Tricky one though isnt it, you will have businesses teetering on the edge and/or employees on 0 hour contracts.

As much as I am for isolating everyone and closing the borders to everything but lorry drivers with food, that is purely for selfish reasons. There are people who would potentially never recover from the ramifications of that.

Tricky one.

Food. And toilet paper. And medicine. And cat litter. Oh don't forget poo bags. And printer paper.
Never mind that knee brace I have on order...

See where that is going?
Essential deliveries would effectively be normal deliveries.

Quarantine - whether an area or a building - can be made to work.
Our smaller islands could quarantine themselves fairly easily. Mainland could limit the international borders - which it doesn't seem to have done so far but could be done.

Ring off towns and cities - use police and military.

The cost - suddenly people could become darned glad of 'austerity'.

 

[Mr D]

Very tricky. I was thinking about it today how we could contain it before it goes wild.

Could we have an enforced 2 week shutdown where everyone has to stay home, all businesses shut down, landlords are told to defer rent, business rate holiday...? Seems like if we don’t do something before it goes mad, we will end up having a longer shut down that we can’t plan for.

More problematic is that people could be off multiple times for self isolation. And by what is reported some of those who have the illness and recover later get the illness again.
So no guarantee that businesses will be able to run on full staffing for any extended period for a few months. Possibly not again this year.

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

But then how do landlords pay the mortgage if there is one or if they are reliant on the income, how do they pay their bills?

Yes the only chance of it working is if the banks defer mortgage payments, and basically nothing that’s not food doesn’t need paid so that people can survive it. Totally impossible to implement on that kind of scale of course. Especially as commerce is so interlinked with other countries.

 

[Opinion87]

My other half sent me these photos from Tesco this afternoon...

 

[Mr D]

Yes the only chance of it working is if the banks defer mortgage payments, and basically nothing that’s not food doesn’t need paid so that people can survive it. Totally impossible to implement on that kind of scale of course. Especially as commerce is so interlinked with other countries.

Food. Petrol. Insurance on the car?
To get the food and eat it involves multiple costs - whether paid at the time or not.
Sure, defer some costs - but when can they be paid back up?
Drop from £1100 a month income to about £450 for SSP. When can the £650 not paid be regained?

Anyone want to defer £650 a month for a month or two this year - then perhaps the same next year?

What about the businesses relying on payments? Does British Gas / a mortgage company / a water board go under because they lose 15% of their income while still having most of their outgoings as normal?

 

[Financial-Modeller]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

 

[MOIC]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

Totally agree.

This will probably change after the Cobra meeting tomorrow.

Heads should roll.

The government are in trouble over this.

 

[Mr D]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

I was at the NEC early last month for Spring Fair.
Multiple signs. Plus hand sanitisers were being handed out, free.
Private company taking better care than government employees????

 

[OMGVape]

One thing that puzzles me is the third stage of the government master plan, “research”. Why has this not been started way back when the seriousness was first realised?

 

[CVRO]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

***LIGHT-HEARTED MOMENT***

Somebody high up in government was probably in a meeting where it was mentioned the 4-stage response plan and, having no idea what that was, decided to google it later on...
After a night of heavy drinking the person couldn't remember how many stages the response was supposed to have.
Heck, the person couldn't even remember whether it was a response or a plan!
Having just a few minutes until the next meeting, the person stumbled upon the 5 stages of grief...
That person was later seen in another meeting where nobody else had the slightest clue about the 4-stage response. So, as the only expert in the room, the person ardently defended how the government should act initially: denial.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, hopefully IS NOT what happened in real life...

 

[The Byre]

Here at Byre Towers, we are taking the Coronavirus very seriously indeed -

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

Presumably another recession is only a matter of time?

 

[Mr D]

***LIGHT-HEARTED MOMENT***

Somebody high up in government was probably in a meeting where it was mentioned the 4-stage response plan and, having no idea what that was, decided to google it later on...
After a night of heavy drinking the person couldn't remember how many stages the response was supposed to have.
Heck, the person couldn't even remember whether it was a response or a plan!
Having just a few minutes until the next meeting, the person stumbled upon the 5 stages of grief...
That person was later seen in another meeting where nobody else had the slightest clue about the 4-stage response. So, as the only expert in the room, the person ardently defended how the government should act initially: denial.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, hopefully IS NOT what happened in real life...

Ever watch Yes Minister? And Yes Prime Minister?
Some quite funny things. Apparently the writers based the story of the show on real life - no way they could come up with stuff as funny.

So I find your explanation quite feasible.

 

[Mr D]

Presumably another recession is only a matter of time?

We were about due one anyway - just this time expect a global one and be able to blame plenty on the new virus, even when its not to blame.

 

[Clinton]

The slump in the FTSE this morning is scary - it's one of the worst in history. Here's the daily chart (each bar is one day) since Jan:

https://i.ibb.co/nmtxzHF/Image-50.png

Saudi's decision to cut oil prices, and ramp up production, spells a possible end to OPEC and a serious problem for countries like Russia relying on oil revenues (given the effect that has had on oil prices today).

Oil is threatening to drop below $30 a barrel, that's below cost of production in most places (which means their local industries will shut down while they switch to importing instead of producing).

Shipping, air travel and logistics companies are hurting badly. Flybe is just the start.

It looks like there will be major disruption to many economies.

 

[Stedurham]

I hear some of the southerners use hand sanitiser without alcohol. Some sort of useless stuff?

why does it need to have alchol in the be useful?

 

[Clodbuster]

One way to solve the NHS's bed-blocking problem.

 

[Mr D]

why does it need to have alchol in the be useful?

Depends how you want to kill the virus.

Can do the same with a anti tank missile but others may not understand you shooting your hand with an explosive device.
Alcohol is a bit cheaper to produce too.

Daresay a strong enough bleach solution on your hands would work at killing the virus. Not so good for your hands though.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

British arrogance will be the reason we don't manage to contain this. Nobody is really taking it seriously. The young seem to have the opinion that it only affects old people whilst failing to realise and or appreciate that in having that opinion they act as a vehicle to pass it onto more vulnerable old people and also increase the spread and the number of deaths.

 

[Mr D]

British arrogance will be the reason we don't manage to contain this. Nobody is really taking it seriously. The young seem to have the opinion that it only affects old people whilst failing to realise and or appreciate that in having that opinion they act as a vehicle to pass it onto more vulnerable old people and also increase the spread and the number of deaths.

There are people taking it seriously.

Just they aren't usually in charge of anything politically.


There will be business owners sweating over what to do if work dries up, what to do if work doesn't dry up but key staff are off sick, or many experienced staff off sick.
There will be people vulnerable to catching stuff - including immune suppressed individuals. And people whose loved ones are vulnerable to say chest infections or pneumonia.

Individually getting 60 odd million to even wash their hands regularly is too much. Never mind getting them to avoid passing on the virus.

For some of us its similar methods to avoid getting flu. Which is also a risk.

 

[RobinBHM]

the growth of this thread is almost exponential.....one might say like a virus

 

[RobinBHM]

I bet Priti Patel is pleased about the virus.

and the govt -its going to hit just as EU trade start to get a bit tricky for them. they can bury the inevitable fishing controversy quite nicely.

"economy damaged by Brexit"
....."oh no Sir, it was due to Coronavirus" I can see Tories peddling that soon.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

OOI - How well is a Country like India prepared to deal with a serious outbreak?

 

[Mr D]

OOI - How well is a Country like India prepared to deal with a serious outbreak?

You know, its strange.
India, 43 cases in over a month. Seems strange to have so few.
Going through multiple other places far faster - but not India. Lack of testing? Government not releasing collated figures?
Or correct - and simply not gaining hold there?

 

[DazRave]

You know, its strange.
India, 43 cases in over a month. Seems strange to have so few.
Going through multiple other places far faster - but not India. Lack of testing? Government not releasing collated figures?
Or correct - and simply not gaining hold there?

I thought the experts are saying it's due to the hot weather making it harder to spread/doesn't survive on surfaces for half as long?

 

[Clodbuster]

I've just returned from grocery shopping, Aldi. We were able to get everything we wanted including cleaning wipes, ibubrofen and loo roll. No-one seemed to be stocking their trolleys to the max. Is this ludicrous panic buying a Southern thing?

 

[CVRO]

Ever watch Yes Minister? And Yes Prime Minister?
Some quite funny things. Apparently the writers based the story of the show on real life - no way they could come up with stuff as funny.

So I find your explanation quite feasible.

I sure used to watch it.

I'd even venture that somebody in government is seriously considering the Rodhesia Solution:

 

[The Byre]

Is this ludicrous panic buying a Southern thing?

Anything stupid going on in the UK is usually confined to the South-East. Not always, but usually!

I was in London yet again and quite honestly, I could halve their traffic emissions and reduce their traffic problems within months - but nobody seems to want to do anything about the chaotic state of London traffic. Traffic lights are not coordinated. Most roads are two-way, resulting in blockages when someone needs to turn right. Building sites and roadworks are allowed to drag on for months because those doing the work do not have to pay by the day for the delays caused. Trucks and busses are allowed to enter the city with heavily polluting Diesel engines. The place makes your average Hong Kong riot look like a well-organised picnic at the WI.

As for Kent - are those roundabouts allowed to breed?

 

[CVRO]

Saudi's decision to cut oil prices, and ramp up production, spells a possible end to OPEC and a serious problem for countries like Russia relying on oil revenues (given the effect that has had on oil prices today).

Oil is threatening to drop below $30 a barrel, that's below cost of production in most places (which means their local industries will shut down while they switch to importing instead of producing).

I believe the target of Saudi's decision is actually the shale industry in the US. From 2014 to about 2016, Saudi was activelly trying to hurt the shale gas producers in the US. They failed then but they may have spotted an opportunity to have another goal at it now.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

Everyone seems to assume that 'panic-buying' is taking place because people are worried about missing out on certain foods, etc, (which on a separate pointM I can tell you has happened with things like ibuprofen as Aldi near me has not had them for about 4 weeks - nor has, Superdrug or Tesco. Boots did but only their own brand)

However, I see - the 'panic-buying' more of a way of people 'stocking-up' so they don't have to venture into places where they are likely to pick up the virus? that's the way I see it anyway. For most people the two / three/ four places they are going to get this is from (1) supermarkets (2) work (3) schools / kids (4) sporting events / large gatherings.

People ultimately will stay away from (4) or they will be banned and (2) and (3) are unavoidable so (1) is the only one you can cut out of your daily life.

For what its worth - I have a friend in Italy and food is in short supply. Access to supermarkets etc is limited to only a certain number at a time and between certain hours. To be honest, if that's whats going to happen over here then people are only being 'organised'.

Although - people should only take what they need and not to the detriment of others or for financial gain.

 

[Mr D]

I thought the experts are saying it's due to the hot weather making it harder to spread/doesn't survive on surfaces for half as long?

And India is different from China, with whom it shares a border, how?

 

[tony84]

I might buy some shares in medical companies.

 

[Mr D]

Everyone seems to assume that 'panic-buying' is taking place because people are worried about missing out on certain foods, etc, (which on a separate pointM I can tell you has happened with things like ibuprofen as Aldi near me has not had them for about 4 weeks - nor has, Superdrug or Tesco. Boots did but only their own brand)

However, I see - the 'panic-buying' more of a way of people 'stocking-up' so they don't have to venture into places where they are likely to pick up the virus? that's the way I see it anyway. For most people the two / three/ four places they are going to get this is from (1) supermarkets (2) work (3) schools / kids (4) sporting events / large gatherings.

People ultimately will stay away from (4) or they will be banned and (2) and (3) are unavoidable so (1) is the only one you can cut out of your daily life.

For what its worth - I have a friend in Italy and food is in short supply. Access to supermarkets etc is limited to only a certain number at a time and between certain hours. To be honest, if that's whats going to happen over here then people are only being 'organised'.

Although - people should only take what they need and not to the detriment of others or for financial gain.

Talking to checkout lady at Morrisons an hour ago, they have sold out of toilet paper and soap every day.

Worst comes to the worst I've some tax guides to start using for toilet paper.

 

[DazRave]

And India is different from China, with whom it shares a border, how?

Please remember I'm only repeating what I read somewhere to add to the theories.

Although in saying that... are you forgetting how big both the countries are perhaps?

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

i'm no expert but when you see photographs of the trains etc in India the virus wouldn't need to be alive long outside of a 'host' to infect someone else... we are talking 100/200 tightly packed into a carriage for hundreds of miles.

 

[DazRave]

i'm no expert but when you see photographs of the trains etc in India the virus wouldn't need to be alive long outside of a 'host' to infect someone else... we are talking 100/200 tightly packed into a carriage for hundreds of miles.

I guess they are both similar in a way.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I have a friend in Italy and food is in short supply. Access to supermarkets etc is limited to only a certain number at a time and between certain hours.

I found supermarkets, large ones, in Italy only open 1 3/4 hours after lunch and filling stations in big cities closed at 6:00

 

[The Byre]

Parts of Germany are now in lock-down!

Trading on Wall Street was stopped for 15m to prevent a share sell-off!

Boy, do humans like to scare themselves!

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

I was amazed to see that my high-risk share dealing account was only down £200 when I logged in before lunch time - I guess that's because its an investment portfolio... I wonder where or when the bottom is. I don't know whether to bother selling or not. Its a pension - and I am a long way away so I guess it would be better to top-up as opposed to sell.