Chinese virus

[UKSBD]

Open you calculator

Put in 273, add 30%, do that 60 times (2 months)

All these news post you see saying biggest daily increases are ridiculous, it's % rate increase they should look at

 

[Mr D]

Ive just been shopping - not panic buying (I only spent about £25) - and it was busy, but only slightly busier than normal. To be honest, I was in and out in about 20 minutes, so it is not like there were massive queues.

Plenty of paracetamol, pasta, toilet rolls(!) etc. The only thing that has sold out is the hand steriliser stuff. There really does not appear to be a shortage of food at the minute. But were northerners, were not like those southern lot who worry at the thought of no avocados for a week

I hear some of the southerners use hand sanitiser without alcohol. Some sort of useless stuff?

 

[Mr D]

Open you calculator

Put in 273, add 30%, do that 60 times (2 months)

A rough approximation but workable this far out.
Big enough figure.

 

[Newchodge]

I really do not understand what Italy is trying to achieve. 16 million people indesignated regions in 'lockdown'. But the trains and planes are still running and people within the locked down region can go wherever they like.

 

[UKSBD]

A rough approximation but workable this far out.
Big enough figure.

30% was a low estimate, it's been between 40% and 60% this week.

 

[MBE2017]

Italy’s primary problem is the very elderly age group in the North. This has caused a large number of deaths, many Italian families live and socialise together, which has probably helped the spread of the virus.

Whatever any Gov does now is purely to slow down infections to try and help the health professionals out. It is in Europe, and out of control.

Never washed my hands so much, in the UK many schools and NHS facilities are yet to receive any real guidance on the virus, apart from is already in the public domain.

 

[tony84]

I hear some of the southerners use hand sanitiser without alcohol. Some sort of useless stuff?

It makes them feel safe. Most people have a false sense of security using anti bacterial stuff, not realising it is useless for this.

 

[MOIC]

Italy: Serie A - rest of the season to be cancelled (although some matches still being played today). Final decision early next week.

 

[MOIC]

I really do not understand what Italy is trying to achieve. 16 million people indesignated regions in 'lockdown'. But the trains and planes are still running and people within the locked down region can go wherever they like.

Quarantine hasn't taken affect yet, which is why trains and planes are still running to other areas of Italy as well as abroad. Italians still skiing in Piedmont.

When quarantine takes affect, travel into or out of Lombardy will not be allowed.. People within Lombardy are free to travel within Lombardy. No other people in or out.

I think the government is expecting anarchy and are waiting for the military to arrive first in order to 'supervise' the quarantine.

That's how I understand the situation.

 

[Mr D]

30% was a low estimate, it's been between 40% and 60% this week.

And people will change behaviours as time goes on. So workable.
Those showing infected in the past few days may well have caught it over a week ago.

 

[ecommerce84]

We’ve just had the third case of CV-19 announced in our county.

The latest one is a Cheltenham resident. There is a lot of chatter as to whether the event should be going ahead. In theory around 250,000 people will descend on the town over the 4 days and many will be staying in accommodation in other local towns (our towns restaurants, pubs and hoteliers always do well as we are a short drive away).

What are other people’s thoughts on this?
It would have a big (negative) impact on Cheltenham businesses if it’s cancelled, but this is the first major event in the UK since the disease took hold and has the potential to spread it quite quickly.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

When quarantine takes affect, travel into or out of Lombardy will not be allowed.. People within Lombardy are free to travel within Lombardy. No other people in or out.

Like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyam#1665_plague_outbreak

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

We’ve just had the third case of CV-19 announced in our county.

The latest one is a Cheltenham resident. There is a lot of chatter as to whether the event should be going ahead. In theory around 250,000 people will descend on the town over the 4 days and many will be staying in accommodation in other local towns (our towns restaurants, pubs and hoteliers always do well as we are a short drive away).

What are other people’s thoughts on this?
It would have a big (negative) impact on Cheltenham businesses if it’s cancelled, but this is the first major event in the UK since the disease took hold and has the potential to spread it quite quickly.

I would say the festival probably should be cancelled, but of course it won’t be. Too much money to be earned for too many people

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I would say the festival probably should be cancelled, but of course it won’t be. Too much money to be earned for too many people

Money more important than lives?

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

Money more important than lives?

Not as far as I’m concerned no. But there are many who will look at the gambling company’s revenue, the local businesses that rely on the festival trade, and forget about the risk to life.

 

[tony84]

Not as far as I’m concerned no. But there are many who will look at the gambling company’s revenue, the local businesses that rely on the festival trade, and forget about the risk to life.

Tricky one though isnt it, you will have businesses teetering on the edge and/or employees on 0 hour contracts.

As much as I am for isolating everyone and closing the borders to everything but lorry drivers with food, that is purely for selfish reasons. There are people who would potentially never recover from the ramifications of that.

Tricky one.

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

Very tricky. I was thinking about it today how we could contain it before it goes wild.

Could we have an enforced 2 week shutdown where everyone has to stay home, all businesses shut down, landlords are told to defer rent, business rate holiday...? Seems like if we don’t do something before it goes mad, we will end up having a longer shut down that we can’t plan for.

 

[tony84]

But then how do landlords pay the mortgage if there is one or if they are reliant on the income, how do they pay their bills?

I think Italy have done it the right way in not enforcing isolation but locking down areas, so people can still go out and spend, work etc. Let it runs its course in each area, once it has started to clear up, you can then start to open up different areas. If there is still an outbreak in certain areas you can keep them closed down a little longer.

I dont really know, I am sure there are far smarter people than me who all have their own ways, but just carrying with the view of lets delay the inevitable just seems like not a very good idea.

 

[Mr D]

We’ve just had the third case of CV-19 announced in our county.

The latest one is a Cheltenham resident. There is a lot of chatter as to whether the event should be going ahead. In theory around 250,000 people will descend on the town over the 4 days and many will be staying in accommodation in other local towns (our towns restaurants, pubs and hoteliers always do well as we are a short drive away).

What are other people’s thoughts on this?
It would have a big (negative) impact on Cheltenham businesses if it’s cancelled, but this is the first major event in the UK since the disease took hold and has the potential to spread it quite quickly.

Lots of festivals, events, stuff that brings in money to the area going on much of the time.
This one - should it go ahead and other events cancelled next week onwards?

Every event that doesn't go ahead will impact in that area. People not able to go away for the day and spend money at a distant event will affect your area throughout the year.

Do you want the money now plus money from cancelling other events elsewhere?

Will people recall where they possibly picked up the virus and not go there again?

 

[Mr D]

Tricky one though isnt it, you will have businesses teetering on the edge and/or employees on 0 hour contracts.

As much as I am for isolating everyone and closing the borders to everything but lorry drivers with food, that is purely for selfish reasons. There are people who would potentially never recover from the ramifications of that.

Tricky one.

Food. And toilet paper. And medicine. And cat litter. Oh don't forget poo bags. And printer paper.
Never mind that knee brace I have on order...

See where that is going?
Essential deliveries would effectively be normal deliveries.

Quarantine - whether an area or a building - can be made to work.
Our smaller islands could quarantine themselves fairly easily. Mainland could limit the international borders - which it doesn't seem to have done so far but could be done.

Ring off towns and cities - use police and military.

The cost - suddenly people could become darned glad of 'austerity'.

 

[Mr D]

Very tricky. I was thinking about it today how we could contain it before it goes wild.

Could we have an enforced 2 week shutdown where everyone has to stay home, all businesses shut down, landlords are told to defer rent, business rate holiday...? Seems like if we don’t do something before it goes mad, we will end up having a longer shut down that we can’t plan for.

More problematic is that people could be off multiple times for self isolation. And by what is reported some of those who have the illness and recover later get the illness again.
So no guarantee that businesses will be able to run on full staffing for any extended period for a few months. Possibly not again this year.

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

But then how do landlords pay the mortgage if there is one or if they are reliant on the income, how do they pay their bills?

Yes the only chance of it working is if the banks defer mortgage payments, and basically nothing that’s not food doesn’t need paid so that people can survive it. Totally impossible to implement on that kind of scale of course. Especially as commerce is so interlinked with other countries.

 

[Opinion87]

My other half sent me these photos from Tesco this afternoon...

 

[Mr D]

Yes the only chance of it working is if the banks defer mortgage payments, and basically nothing that’s not food doesn’t need paid so that people can survive it. Totally impossible to implement on that kind of scale of course. Especially as commerce is so interlinked with other countries.

Food. Petrol. Insurance on the car?
To get the food and eat it involves multiple costs - whether paid at the time or not.
Sure, defer some costs - but when can they be paid back up?
Drop from £1100 a month income to about £450 for SSP. When can the £650 not paid be regained?

Anyone want to defer £650 a month for a month or two this year - then perhaps the same next year?

What about the businesses relying on payments? Does British Gas / a mortgage company / a water board go under because they lose 15% of their income while still having most of their outgoings as normal?

 

[Financial-Modeller]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

 

[MOIC]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

Totally agree.

This will probably change after the Cobra meeting tomorrow.

Heads should roll.

The government are in trouble over this.

 

[Mr D]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

I was at the NEC early last month for Spring Fair.
Multiple signs. Plus hand sanitisers were being handed out, free.
Private company taking better care than government employees????

 

[OMGVape]

One thing that puzzles me is the third stage of the government master plan, “research”. Why has this not been started way back when the seriousness was first realised?

 

[CVRO]

A few people discussed measures to detect the virus at airports a few days ago.

I travelled through LHR twice in the last week, and there were absolutely no visible signs of anything to do with the outbreak!

No signs.

No warnings.

No face masks.

No checks.

No screening.

Astonishing!

***LIGHT-HEARTED MOMENT***

Somebody high up in government was probably in a meeting where it was mentioned the 4-stage response plan and, having no idea what that was, decided to google it later on...
After a night of heavy drinking the person couldn't remember how many stages the response was supposed to have.
Heck, the person couldn't even remember whether it was a response or a plan!
Having just a few minutes until the next meeting, the person stumbled upon the 5 stages of grief...
That person was later seen in another meeting where nobody else had the slightest clue about the 4-stage response. So, as the only expert in the room, the person ardently defended how the government should act initially: denial.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, hopefully IS NOT what happened in real life...

 

[The Byre]

Here at Byre Towers, we are taking the Coronavirus very seriously indeed -

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

Presumably another recession is only a matter of time?

 

[Mr D]

***LIGHT-HEARTED MOMENT***

Somebody high up in government was probably in a meeting where it was mentioned the 4-stage response plan and, having no idea what that was, decided to google it later on...
After a night of heavy drinking the person couldn't remember how many stages the response was supposed to have.
Heck, the person couldn't even remember whether it was a response or a plan!
Having just a few minutes until the next meeting, the person stumbled upon the 5 stages of grief...
That person was later seen in another meeting where nobody else had the slightest clue about the 4-stage response. So, as the only expert in the room, the person ardently defended how the government should act initially: denial.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, hopefully IS NOT what happened in real life...

Ever watch Yes Minister? And Yes Prime Minister?
Some quite funny things. Apparently the writers based the story of the show on real life - no way they could come up with stuff as funny.

So I find your explanation quite feasible.

 

[Mr D]

Presumably another recession is only a matter of time?

We were about due one anyway - just this time expect a global one and be able to blame plenty on the new virus, even when its not to blame.

 

[Clinton]

The slump in the FTSE this morning is scary - it's one of the worst in history. Here's the daily chart (each bar is one day) since Jan:

https://i.ibb.co/nmtxzHF/Image-50.png

Saudi's decision to cut oil prices, and ramp up production, spells a possible end to OPEC and a serious problem for countries like Russia relying on oil revenues (given the effect that has had on oil prices today).

Oil is threatening to drop below $30 a barrel, that's below cost of production in most places (which means their local industries will shut down while they switch to importing instead of producing).

Shipping, air travel and logistics companies are hurting badly. Flybe is just the start.

It looks like there will be major disruption to many economies.

 

[Stedurham]

I hear some of the southerners use hand sanitiser without alcohol. Some sort of useless stuff?

why does it need to have alchol in the be useful?

 

[Clodbuster]

One way to solve the NHS's bed-blocking problem.

 

[Mr D]

why does it need to have alchol in the be useful?

Depends how you want to kill the virus.

Can do the same with a anti tank missile but others may not understand you shooting your hand with an explosive device.
Alcohol is a bit cheaper to produce too.

Daresay a strong enough bleach solution on your hands would work at killing the virus. Not so good for your hands though.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

British arrogance will be the reason we don't manage to contain this. Nobody is really taking it seriously. The young seem to have the opinion that it only affects old people whilst failing to realise and or appreciate that in having that opinion they act as a vehicle to pass it onto more vulnerable old people and also increase the spread and the number of deaths.

 

[Mr D]

British arrogance will be the reason we don't manage to contain this. Nobody is really taking it seriously. The young seem to have the opinion that it only affects old people whilst failing to realise and or appreciate that in having that opinion they act as a vehicle to pass it onto more vulnerable old people and also increase the spread and the number of deaths.

There are people taking it seriously.

Just they aren't usually in charge of anything politically.


There will be business owners sweating over what to do if work dries up, what to do if work doesn't dry up but key staff are off sick, or many experienced staff off sick.
There will be people vulnerable to catching stuff - including immune suppressed individuals. And people whose loved ones are vulnerable to say chest infections or pneumonia.

Individually getting 60 odd million to even wash their hands regularly is too much. Never mind getting them to avoid passing on the virus.

For some of us its similar methods to avoid getting flu. Which is also a risk.

 

[RobinBHM]

the growth of this thread is almost exponential.....one might say like a virus