Chinese virus

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

My cousin works in a care home, and is currently recovering from the virus.

Tested twice for some reason, but confirmed both times.

Her care home phoned her the other day asking why she’s not back at work. When she said it’s because she still has Corona they asked her to prove it......

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

Similarly my neighbour works in a care home and the staff there had to come up with their own plan to keep the virus out.

They were doing fine until one resident had to go to hospital and came back with the virus.

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

In summary, from my very limited data set, the Care Home Strategy is........


Non existent.

 

[Mr D]

They should have done this from the start - remove those with infections and place them in specialist facilities for treatment. It's what they used to do decades ago. People with respiratory illness went to the seaside hospitals for specialist treatment. General hospitals were for general illnesses (broken bones etc.) - instead we have people with infections walking in to general hospitals and mixing with others.

I believe the problem is staffing for the new hospitals. They've built them but they can never reach full capacity because they don't have the specialist staff available. That's why they rushed through junior doctors and semi qualified nurses but they've just covered the current hospitals who have staff off work due to illness/symptoms.

I still don't know why MPs don't just admit the truth. They were under prepared and the new hospitals don't have enough staff, the current hospitals are under staffed if people are taking 14 days off for symptoms etc. Much easier for them just to say this and hold their hands up, rather than messing around with bar charts and coming up with stories of why we're not as bad as somewhere else because they don't count other people in other areas and we do etc.

And if we didn't have this virus then we'd have massively overstaffed hospitals.

Yes, any illness requiring people to be off a couple of weeks simply in case of infection will cause problems. Add in those who do develop symptoms and who will be off a further 3 or 4 weeks on top - maybe months for some, death for a few - and there is no way to get enough staff trained and hanging around without wasting money.

Add in that staff are not all equal - the specialists will have additional training and experience but what happens if the people who know how to do some things are among those off? Say head of department plus deputy. Or say half the ICU nurses - other nurses know nursing but don't necessarily know much of the ICU procedures. Times that by all specialist workers.

 

[MBE2017]

It’s all too early to decide who has done good or bad in this once in a century type pandemic. What can be generally admitted is no country was prepared, no country acted quickly enough, but even if they didn’t we still don’t know if it will make much difference over the next year.

The “experts” have once again been shown to be completely wrong on their figures and methods, only today they have now floated the idea Covid started in October last year, so this is probably the second peak, with more to come.

I will say, just IMO, that this pandemic is being used to further other things, such as changing various freedoms, working practices etc. Everyone is being told we have to accept the new normal, except the new normal is nothing like normal.

Maybe as a world we will have to decide what we prefer, a lower death rate, or business as usual. Currently the UK has probably lost 30% of its normal GDP, with maybe 2/4 million new people eventually out of work, except no one wants to admit it yet. How quickly can we recover from this? 10/20 years?

Now imagine say Italy, where there has been no real economic growth for the last 15+ years already, before this pandemic hit. How long will they be looking at. The debt economy is coming home to roost. Time to grow on real money, not borrowed all the time.

 

[alan1302]

The “experts” have once again been shown to be completely wrong on their figures and methods, only today they have now floated the idea Covid started in October last year, so this is probably the second peak, with more to come.

That's not true in the slightest - 'experts' what ever you mean by that will change their thoughts based on facts at the time - as more data comes in they will change what their thoughts are - which is what should happen - the worst kind of 'expert' won't change their mind no matter what.

 

[UKSBD]

Maybe as a world we will have to decide what we prefer, a lower death rate, or business as usual.

It's not really the death rate that is the concern.

It's everyone getting the virus badly/dying at the same time so that the NHS/Hospitals/health services/society can't cope.

Protecting the NHS/system is the priority not the individual person

They can't come out and say that directly though

 

[alan1302]

Maybe as a world we will have to decide what we prefer, a lower death rate, or business as usual. Currently the UK has probably lost 30% of its normal GDP, with maybe 2/4 million new people eventually out of work, except no one wants to admit it yet. How quickly can we recover from this? 10/20 years?

Why not have a lower death rate but change things around a bit? Business as usual was not working well before - why not use this as a way to improve things for people?

 

[Mr D]

It’s all too early to decide who has done good or bad in this once in a century type pandemic. What can be generally admitted is no country was prepared, no country acted quickly enough, but even if they didn’t we still don’t know if it will make much difference over the next year.

The “experts” have once again been shown to be completely wrong on their figures and methods, only today they have now floated the idea Covid started in October last year, so this is probably the second peak, with more to come.

I will say, just IMO, that this pandemic is being used to further other things, such as changing various freedoms, working practices etc. Everyone is being told we have to accept the new normal, except the new normal is nothing like normal.

Maybe as a world we will have to decide what we prefer, a lower death rate, or business as usual. Currently the UK has probably lost 30% of its normal GDP, with maybe 2/4 million new people eventually out of work, except no one wants to admit it yet. How quickly can we recover from this? 10/20 years?

Now imagine say Italy, where there has been no real economic growth for the last 15+ years already, before this pandemic hit. How long will they be looking at. The debt economy is coming home to roost. Time to grow on real money, not borrowed all the time.

Recover from a deep recession? Maybe 5 to 10 years. Don't forget its also killing off a portion of the population - including the portion of us that take considerable resources to keep alive previously.
There will be a number who didn't need support prior but who will afterwards - and they become more at risk for future waves of this virus or indeed the flu. So perhaps not drawing on too many resources for long.

And we'll have one heck of a mental health surge - good thing we have a dedicated health service able to cope with mental health issues.

For those of us who are male and really old (like 50+) the risks appear to be greater. You made plans for someone you trust to have power of attorney including making medical decisions you cannot? You made plans for the business or is it just dispose of cheaply once you are unable to control it / you die? Speaking of you in general terms, not any one person.
We have a little time to make provisions, to come up with plans.

 

[Mr D]

It's not really the death rate that is the concern.

It's everyone getting the virus badly/dying at the same time so that the NHS/Hospitals/health services/society can't cope.

Protecting the NHS/system is the priority not the individual person

They can't come out and say that directly though

They did.
Central part of the message, protect the NHS.

How that's interpreted is where the interesting bits happen. Such as driving long distance to buy some bread...

 

[MBE2017]

So it appears the Gov scientific data might not be of much use, which considering the economy has been sacrificed due to experts warnings, seems worrying.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

This report looks at Professor Ferguson’s report on covid10 projected deaths etc given to the Gov at the start of this crisis, the guy who went on to ignore that scientific advice for a shag.

 

[thetiger2015]

So it appears the Gov scientific data might not be of much use, which considering the economy has been sacrificed due to experts warnings, seems worrying.

The data changes though.

It's the same for anything data related / scientific / technical - you work with the limited data you have and draw conclusions. This changes, as more data appears and you can see new patterns.

What I don't like is politicians coming up with stories to justify this. They can just say, as the data develops, we will develop new strategies.

It all goes wrong when you realise they've been letting in 10k plus people per day through major airports through-out this pandemic, without any checks, coming from China/USA and Europe.

We could have easily done what NZ and Aus did. Complete border lockdown for 14 days. Nobody in or out. Track and trace.

Who's decision was it to do the opposite of what everyone else was suggesting?

 

[Mr D]

Track and trace is darn hard on a large timescale.
OK, remember who you interacted with today. Easy enough?
Would you, before lockdown, have been able to give accurate details of everyone you came into contact with 5 days previously?

Apps may be able to help with that, though big brother in style. So long as the device goes with you.

 

[MBE2017]

You obviously never read the link, the whole model was run on software that throws up many incorrect figures, not reliable with non repeatable figures. The actual software which the forecasts were made has been refused to be allowed to be examined, but even the follow up better version has turned out terrible inaccurate figures.

As for why not say new strategies with new evidence, what was the “we will take the scientific advice and change as required” line? Trouble is, if the expected results from the data prove to be awful, then the resulting measures suggested and adopted will be incorrect.

 

[DontAsk]

The data changes though.

But Ferguson's record does not. He's been (wildly) wrong on every pandemic prediction he's made.

 

[Mr D]

I expect a cashless society is inevitable. Or a digital cash society.

That has been said for better part of 30 years.
Still not there yet.