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Ally Maxwell
So the UK has completely free trade with the entire world ? Really ? That's one Daily Mail headline I must have missed. Would you mind referencing your source ?
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Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
- Start date
So the UK has completely free trade with the entire world ? Really ? That's one Daily Mail headline I must have missed. Would you mind referencing your source ?
No, that is one (1) of three (3) options that I gave you as a possible basis point, for any comparison to WTO. If you read all the words in order, they make more sense.
The fact that you've picked one and started ranting about the Daily Mail says a lot about your point of view.
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Interesting that you picked the free trade one.
Presumably, it upsets you the most.
Which countries don't deserve to sell us goods, or buy goods from us?
What is the benefit of limiting free trade?
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Ally Maxwell
Not 100% sure if you're taking the mickey or if you're just really stupid.
When the transition period ends and the UK's trading agreement with the EU ends, we will potentially have no trading agreements with anyone (apart from a partial reciprocal deal we appear to have with the Faroe Islands) and we will then be trading on WTO terms with the whole world. So, unless the UK negotiates lots of free trade agreements in a 1/10 of the time that anyone else has ever done it in before, we'll be trading solely on WTO terms. That means everything entering and leaving the country will be subject to tarrifs and barriers (such as delays, standards authorisations etc). I'm asking someone to tell me what the advantages of that are. That does not include comparisons with things that don't yet exist nor are likely to.
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Not true. Continuity agreements have been reached with a fair few countries.
Eg https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49430207
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OK, so you want to talk about what will "potentially" happen if we cancel the trade agreements that we have already agreed (apart from with the Faroe Islands), don't agree any others, don't do a deal with the EU at all and we go on to WTO terms.
You also want to assume that the WTO (an organisation that encourages free trade) will implement trade tariffs and barriers on all products which are currently zero, despite all members needing to agree.
But you don't want to talk about "things that don't yet exist nor are likely to"
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Ally Maxwell
I take it you decided to quote that without reading it......The document you linked to was withdrawn by the UK government months ago and replaced with a smaller list. These are not 'free trade agreements'. They are continuity trade agreements.
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The main benefit of trading on WTO terms is that they are known, now.
I am involved in a business that imports glass from the EU, mainly Germany and Spain into the UK. (benefiting from the different standards within the EU, ironically) We also imported from the USA, and exported to the USA and Nigeria, so I understand free trade and tariffs.
For projects that take place in 2021 and beyond, which we are pricing now, we need to include the cost of tariffs, but of course, I don't know what the agreement will be, whether we will have one, etc, etc.
So how can we price things? We assume that we will be on WTO terms, or that any agreement will be better than WTO terms (a fairly safe assumption)
If the project is profitable under WTO terms, then we're fine. If we end up with free trade on construction products, excellent, we can either make extra profits or drop prices.
Either way, the WTO terms mean that we can plan ahead.
@Ally Maxwell have you ever imported or exported anything?
I am involved in a business that imports glass from the EU, mainly Germany and Spain into the UK. (benefiting from the different standards within the EU, ironically) We also imported from the USA, and exported to the USA and Nigeria, so I understand free trade and tariffs.
For projects that take place in 2021 and beyond, which we are pricing now, we need to include the cost of tariffs, but of course, I don't know what the agreement will be, whether we will have one, etc, etc.
So how can we price things? We assume that we will be on WTO terms, or that any agreement will be better than WTO terms (a fairly safe assumption)
If the project is profitable under WTO terms, then we're fine. If we end up with free trade on construction products, excellent, we can either make extra profits or drop prices.
Either way, the WTO terms mean that we can plan ahead.
@Ally Maxwell have you ever imported or exported anything?
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Eh?
Since when do items leaving the country have tariffs imposed by us?
Sure, where they are going to may well have tariffs - but that is the choice of that nation's government.
And why should items entering UK have tariffs? Its our government to impose those - or not. Perhaps they won't impose tariffs on all goods - so not everything entering our country is subject to tariffs.
You are of course aware that while in the EU we had EU imposing tariffs on imported goods - some of which no doubt increased the price you would have otherwise paid?
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Ally Maxwell
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Yes, I export (and import) plenty thanks
one of my lines is that I export premium quality (and very expensive) creel caught Langoustine and Lobster to France, Spain and Italy. While tariffs may be workable, customs delays will not. Something that the UK shellfish fleet is just kinda waking up to.
So what happens if your foreign customers decide that the tariffs and non tariff barriers make your products undesirable ?
Yes, I export (and import) plenty thanks
one of my lines is that I export premium quality (and very expensive) creel caught Langoustine and Lobster to France, Spain and Italy. While tariffs may be workable, customs delays will not. Something that the UK shellfish fleet is just kinda waking up to.So what happens if your foreign customers decide that the tariffs and non tariff barriers make your products undesirable ?
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Ally Maxwell
So, the UK is going to zero tariff all incoming goods via their WTO schedule ? Is that your plan ?
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Yes, I export (and import) plenty thanks
So what happens if your foreign customers decide that the tariffs and non tariff barriers make your products undesirable ?
Excellent, how much shellfish do we import into the UK? This will be subject to the same delays you think are risking your exports, but if you sell more within the UK, no tariffs, no delays, no problem.
For the glass, we handle all importing issues, it gets delivered to site in the right order on the right day. They don't and won't care how it happens as long as it happens.
If it proves to difficult for us, we'll switch to more UK based suppliers or EU based customers.
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Again with the zero tariff issue, what do you have against free trade? Is shellfish currently protected?
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Apparently there are quotas and tariffs of up to 25% for shellfish/seafood from outside of the EU.
Now your posts make more sense, but why not say my business will be hurt by leaving the EU, rather than saying leaving the EU is bad for everyone?
For those of us that eat fish, a drop in tariffs means lower prices, and if you sell in the UK, not the EU, it means more profit for you.
Is it really sensible that we ship Scottish and Welsh lamb all over the world, whilst importing a similar quantity of lamb from New Zealand and Australia?
Now your posts make more sense, but why not say my business will be hurt by leaving the EU, rather than saying leaving the EU is bad for everyone?
For those of us that eat fish, a drop in tariffs means lower prices, and if you sell in the UK, not the EU, it means more profit for you.
Is it really sensible that we ship Scottish and Welsh lamb all over the world, whilst importing a similar quantity of lamb from New Zealand and Australia?
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Ally Maxwell
The UK is a net exporter of shellfish/seafood. In this country, people, in general, buy fish at the cheap end of the market (think of the tasteless stuff you get in fish and chip shops), so unless the UK suddenly develops a love for premium smoked salmon, whole langoustine and Lobster, so it's not as simple as saying 'sell it here rather than abroad' It becomes unviable. Local fish shops where I live sell whole langoustine for about £12/kg. I can get a site more than that for it, wholesale, from processors who sell it abroad and can't get enough of it.
And I'm not sceptical about the UK's future trade relations with the world because of it's effect on me. Your glass products may not be hit but just about every industry will be in some way. There a farmer lives just up the road from me that found out that most countries apply a 40% tariff to lamb. He genuinely believed that leaving the EU abolished all tariffs worldwide
And I'm not sceptical about the UK's future trade relations with the world because of it's effect on me. Your glass products may not be hit but just about every industry will be in some way. There a farmer lives just up the road from me that found out that most countries apply a 40% tariff to lamb. He genuinely believed that leaving the EU abolished all tariffs worldwide
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Whatever reason should I have a plan regarding setting of tariffs?
Do I sound like a government department?
I don't think I do.
That's the thing though - it will be our government setting tariffs.
Like it or not - we voted to leave, we had parliament agree we were leaving - we are leaving.
Now you can argue about what sort of tariffs on imports should be set. Take that up with the government.
Tariffs on imports into the EU - you are a bit late there, vote was in summer 2016. Over 3 years to prepare - after all you were of course able to access details of what tariffs the EU has on the goods all that time.
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The UK is a net exporter of shellfish/seafood. In this country, people, in general, buy fish at the cheap end of the market (think of the tasteless stuff you get in fish and chip shops), so unless the UK suddenly develops a love for premium smoked salmon, whole langoustine and Lobster, so it's not as simple as saying 'sell it here rather than abroad' It becomes unviable. Local fish shops where I live sell whole langoustine for about £12/kg. I can get a site more than that for it, wholesale, from processors who sell it abroad and can't get enough of it.
And I'm not sceptical about the UK's future trade relations with the world because of it's effect on me. Your glass products may not be hit but just about every industry will be in some way. There a farmer lives just up the road from me that found out that most countries apply a 40% tariff to lamb. He genuinely believed that leaving the EU abolished all tariffs worldwide
The UK apparently does not have the love of the prices of the premium end of the market.
For some reason we like cheap food. Could it be we have worked out how to cook? Could it be we don't want to spend more than a few quid a day on food? The nice stuff you can get in a decent fish and chip shop can be even better when prepared and cooked differently - which many can do these days.
If a business becomes unliveable then what plans do you have to alter that?
You've had the same time as the rest of us to make changes, look for other markets, investigate how to sell under WTO etc.
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I don't believe I said that.
My position was, and is, that WTO ain't the huge bogeyman people make it out to be.
It's a shame that we went into the last negotiation effectively ruling out WTO. That was one of the best cards in our hand and that stupid woman kept saying dumbass things without actually meaning them, like "no deal is better than a bad deal". All the while she had no intention of executing on the WTO threat.
It's not the going on WTO terms (on its own) that's the exciting prospect. It's the wider implications. Going on WTO means no alignment, no open borders, no ECJ ... what the British people were promised if they voted Leave.
Personally, I'm not a fan of restricting immigration, nor cutting back on environmental standards, nor removing restrictions on GM crops, nor lots of other things. Us being out of the EU is bad on so many levels ...which is why I voted Remain.
But, and I've made this point again and again, economically I believe we'll be much better off out. The economic numbers published over the last few years have consistently been on my side of the argument. No disaster, no economic collapse, no recession, no emergency budget.
Even Mark Carney, the Remainer-In-Chief, now says that our economy will benefit if we leave on WTO. I was saying that three years ago!
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Though of course we could have disaster and economic collapse because of other factors. Other businesses in other countries, supply chain delays, reduction in sales totals by companies etc.
But not, as yet, Brexit. Perhaps we will, perhaps we won't - we cannot find out until next year. I daresay when we have the next recession it will be blamed on Brexit - whether true or not people do like to assign blame.
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I never said that was my preference, however high income from customs is a simple upside. The EU are already trying to act as if they still control the UK, our fisheries, laws, regulations etc. The alternative, zero tariff free trade would be the EU’s nightmare scenario, one already threatened in the past by the UK. Nice thing about being independent, you can do what is best for you.
Negotiations are just that, I did say I thought there would be a deal, but if not the UK will still prosper. We are, after all a trading nation.
As for Ally Maxwell, I’m not a muppet, and what the EU wants is down to them, I’m more interested in what the UK wants. You asked for any upside, I gave you one. Seems you don’t understand getting what you want. Neither does the EU, it takes two to make a deal, already the EU are renaming on previous offers of a Canada style deal, so maybe they prefer WTO, or wish you to think they do.
Seriously, I wonder how much negotiations some people have ever done in their lives. Nothing is agreed until the deal is signed, try to chill and let the grown ups sort it out. Just because the EU says something doesn’t mean it will happen, or even that they want what they claim. Time will tell, there are many a slip twixt cup and lip.
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The duels are fought in the media long before agreement is reached or rejected at the negotiations.
As has been said we can plan for one type of deal we know is available. And if something better is agreed then alter plans accordingly.
Whatever we agree it's likely over half the media will rant against it. On behalf of their customers of course.
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In the Good old USA they raised the import duty of sewing machines and many other items to 40% yet the customers are still buying them at the higher price because they still need the machinesand like most things if the 40% tax was removed tomorrow, I cannot ever see the price to customers reducing by the same amount , it just never seems to happen
So what would any sensible person do if the only choice was to provide something there customers wanted like shell fish but could only buy them at say 40% higher price, I guess some would not buy but after a short time period must would wonder back into buying them at the higher price
So what would any sensible person do if the only choice was to provide something there customers wanted like shell fish but could only buy them at say 40% higher price, I guess some would not buy but after a short time period must would wonder back into buying them at the higher price
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Yes, no need to reduce the price by 40% to the customers. Buy sewing machines at £100 each, sell for £500. Now 40% import duty applies, buy at £140. Sell at 40% more than £500, £700? No.
Sell at £540 maybe. An 8% increase.
Drop the import duty, take that 8% off.
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Or buy them from somewhere like Norway or Iceland which don't have the 40% higher price?
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Begorra!
Will you look at that. EU imports crustaceans. 4.8 billion euros worth. Do the people buying from the UK now simply stop buying? Or do they carry on buying from outside the EU?
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/...ets-importing-exporting-more-seafood-products
Will you look at that. EU imports crustaceans. 4.8 billion euros worth. Do the people buying from the UK now simply stop buying? Or do they carry on buying from outside the EU?
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/...ets-importing-exporting-more-seafood-products
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Deleted member 59730
Ally
You will learn that most of the Brexiteers on this thread know sod all about exporting and even less about exporting foodstuff. They do not understand that we do not, apart from a few expensive restaurants, consume anything which is high quality. Not crab, lobster, salmon, Welsh spring lamb or anything which they can get hogget from NZ, frozen fish from Iceland etc.
A junior trade minister suggested that if we stop selling lamb to the EU we could sell it to Japan, a country which doesn't eat it. I wonder he didn't suggest pork to Israel.
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The UK is a net exporter of shellfish/seafood. In this country, people, in general, buy fish at the cheap end of the market (think of the tasteless stuff you get in fish and chip shops), so unless the UK suddenly develops a love for premium smoked salmon, whole langoustine and Lobster, so it's not as simple as saying 'sell it here rather than abroad' It becomes unviable. Local fish shops where I live sell whole langoustine for about £12/kg. I can get a site more than that for it, wholesale, from processors who sell it abroad and can't get enough of it.
And I'm not sceptical about the UK's future trade relations with the world because of it's effect on me. Your glass products may not be hit but just about every industry will be in some way. There a farmer lives just up the road from me that found out that most countries apply a 40% tariff to lamb. He genuinely believed that leaving the EU abolished all tariffs worldwide
https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/...ets-importing-exporting-more-seafood-products
The EU imports a lot of fish / fish products from outside the EU, and imports are increasing, so I'm not really sure why you think you will have a problem, while more than €25 Billion makes it through at the moment.
As to the problem of the UK liking cheap fish, that is a marketing problem, what is the Shellfish Association doing about it?
You've had 3+ years to prepare, in the same way that my glass business has, what did you do in that time?
By the way, how popular are Langoustine in Germany?
Lamb imports and exports both run at around 750,000 tonnes per year, from memory - either way the import and export figures are very similar, so it shouldn't be that hard to stop importing on one hand and start buying locally with another.
People worry about straws, it shouldn't be that hard to convince people that bringing meat as far around the world as possible is a bad idea.
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https://fullfact.org/europe/lamb-japan/
"However Japan does import quite a lot of sheep meat—around £67 million in the first five months of the year, the vast majority of which came from Australia and New Zealand, the two biggest sheep meat exporters worldwide. Consumption of lamb in the country is also on the rise."
"In the first five months of the year, the UK exported almost £152 million of sheep meat (including lamb and mutton) to the EU, and around £5 million outside the EU."
Last time I looked £67 million was considered a lot of money, perhaps it's not to @atmosbob but it is to most farmers.
The fact that we like to eat as much crap food as possible, is a marketing problem that the industry would have done well to look at, rather than taking the easy route of exporting everything good to Europe and importing rubbish for ourselves. Short term gains. long term problems.
A bit more of this would have been a good idea
https://www.worldfishing.net/news101/industry-news/jamie-oliver-champions-scottish-langoustines
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New Zealand lamb had a much better marketing campaign than Welsh lamb (which for years was hardly noticeable).
In these days of environmentally conscious niche market becoming more mainstream, local foodstuffs should - with good marketing - increase local sales.
I don't notice the shellfish marketing at all. Anyone notice it?
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Lots of people do buy high quality. Just they don't need to buy it for every meal.
Past 50 years or so there has been a lot of cookbooks produced, TV programmes on how to make meals - and people can buy cheap £1 fillets from a supermarket and produce a great meal for under £2.
Learn to cook basic food. Sure, salmon is nice but its not something everyone wants to eat every day. Lamb can be lovely, too expensive for every day compared to other nice meats.
Can't see anything wrong with getting flash frozen fish from Iceland. You'd perhaps prefer older but not frozen fish?
Either way can make a nice meal.
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- Original Poster
- #9,395
I have doubts, and it's not because of either side being petty.
A huge advantage the UK had by being in the single market is that it was a gateway to Europe. By basing operations in the UK, not only could businesses access the UK market directly, they could also have unfettered access to the significantly larger EU economy.
But now the UK wants to diverge on regulations and level playing field rules, and at the same time wants a deal that allows near-unfettered access to the EU market. Giving us that would be a disaster for the EU, as we'd keep the advantageous position of being a gateway to the EU market, AND our anti-level-playing-field approach would make us much more attractive to business than before. We'd gain on numerous fronts entirely at the expense of the EU.
If the UK is intending to diverge and undercut the EU whether it has a FTA or not, then it's in the EU's best interests to maintain friction between the UK and EU, and rely on its size (i.e. nearly a fifth of global GDP) and its significantly more diverse market to compete with us.
This isn't about being petty or stubborn. It would just be a strategically terrible choice for them to make unless the UK provides significant concessions in return, so you can't really blame them.
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Which is also a disadvantage. I notice you never mention the negatives we had to put up with to get that access, including the inability to do trade deals elsewhere - in the rest of the world where there's growth happening! And we had to subsidise all those French farmers.
Unfortunately, being "nearly a fifth of global GDP" is no comfort when your economies are declining and you have a budget hole of a hundred billion euros.
The bigger you are, the harder you fall.
It's not a time when the EU can afford to lose a market that accounts for 40% of their exports (that two fifths to you and me)! And over 60% of their global surplus of trade (that's three fifths).
I think you'll find that the EU don't have much choice.
I don't know whether you or any other Remainer will accept it but it looks like we are in a much better negotiating position that you believed all along. The basis for all the fears you guys were stoking - about how big the EU is relative to us - is not looking anywhere near as scary as it once did. Surely even you see that?
It took a PM who had the balls to do a deal with a deadline that kept the threat of WTO very much alive. The EU will hopefully wake up, smell the coffee and do the smart thing. The smart thing is giving the UK a bloody good trade deal ...and getting very little in return.
It'll mean a huge loss for the EU. But not doing so - and risking an adversarial UK - could result in an even bigger loss!
Tough choice for them. They weren't smart in their offer to Cameron and so the Referendum was lost. They weren't smart in their negotiations with May and sought to give too little thinking that they could force the UK to change its mind about leaving. They lost again. Let's see if they've become smarter over time.
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And just like the trade will continue for our exporters selling to EU customers, so will UK customers be buying EU products.
Just because we move to WTO terms doesn't mean the UK stops buying EU products.
I for one will still buy occasional French wines. Trade deal or no trade deal.
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Deleted member 59730
0.1 kg per capita per annum. According to my source in Japan the vast majority is sold in tourist hotels to Aussie tourists!
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