Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
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You've read at least one post
If you don't want to read it, don't.
Let others continue to enjoy it. I like Clinton's posts in this thread. He speaks my language.
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You may enjoy it.You've read at least one post
If you don't want to read it, don't.
Let others continue to enjoy it. I like Clinton's posts in this thread. He speaks my language.
My very infrequent quip ought not to make that in any way more difficult for you. I am certain it hasn't.
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Only 330 days to go, please fasten your safety belts and note the emergency exits and when told please assume the crash position, Thank you for flying Great Britain (minus Scotland)
No refunds are available on this occasion
Those parachuting into Calais please prepare to leave now
No refunds are available on this occasion
Those parachuting into Calais please prepare to leave now
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I've been saying, for years, that the UK has the advantage in any negotiations with the EU, that we shouldn't be willing to take any nonsense from them, that we should play tough in negotiations, that we should be prepared to walk away and make clear to them that we are fine with WTO terms.
Because we are / were always in a stronger negotiating position than the EU!
And lots of Remainers laughed.
"The EU is huge, we are tiny", they said. They added further arguments about the size of the block, the extent of our trade with the EU etc etc. That in percentage terms a large chunk of our trade is affected by Brexit but for each of the countries in the EU it's only a small percentage.
Not all were valid points but some were. However, Remainers were attributing far more significance to them relative to the strengths we've always had (strengths which we often didn't use). Fishing waters etc is all, er, small fry. The big ones are
The size and clout of our financial services and EU's reliance on UK financial services.
The fact that EU unity is not all it seems and countries can be played off against each other.
That they desperately need our monetary contributions to their budget.
Lots more.
But, bigger than all that ...
The threat that we can out compete them, that we can become a low cost, low tax, offshore island that can seriously, seriously disrupt the whole EU project. It could cause the euro to collapse, other countries to leave the EU (and possibly set up a new trading block with the UK) and it can cause a disruption to most EU economies to the extent of double digit GDP drops.
They need to keep us sweet if they want to avoid that fate.
Fortunately, we now have a PM and, importantly, the numbers in Parliament, to stand up to the EU.
The Telegraph (subscription required): The EU is panicking!
(Tough if you don't have a subscription to the Telegraph. Maybe you should go get one, not live in your little Guardian bubble. Get your news from a whole range of sources like some of us do.)
And if you inherently distrust the Telegraph because, well, you're a dyed-in-the-wool liberal leftie, a lot of other publications are beginning to see the light now: Example.
The current arrangement we have with the EU is pants, but when that ends in December we can look forward to, potentially, a clean break Brexit, a WTO Brexit.
Fingers crossed.
Because we are / were always in a stronger negotiating position than the EU!
And lots of Remainers laughed.
"The EU is huge, we are tiny", they said. They added further arguments about the size of the block, the extent of our trade with the EU etc etc. That in percentage terms a large chunk of our trade is affected by Brexit but for each of the countries in the EU it's only a small percentage.
Not all were valid points but some were. However, Remainers were attributing far more significance to them relative to the strengths we've always had (strengths which we often didn't use). Fishing waters etc is all, er, small fry. The big ones are
The size and clout of our financial services and EU's reliance on UK financial services.
The fact that EU unity is not all it seems and countries can be played off against each other.
That they desperately need our monetary contributions to their budget.
Lots more.
But, bigger than all that ...
The threat that we can out compete them, that we can become a low cost, low tax, offshore island that can seriously, seriously disrupt the whole EU project. It could cause the euro to collapse, other countries to leave the EU (and possibly set up a new trading block with the UK) and it can cause a disruption to most EU economies to the extent of double digit GDP drops.
They need to keep us sweet if they want to avoid that fate.
Fortunately, we now have a PM and, importantly, the numbers in Parliament, to stand up to the EU.
The Telegraph (subscription required): The EU is panicking!
(Tough if you don't have a subscription to the Telegraph. Maybe you should go get one, not live in your little Guardian bubble. Get your news from a whole range of sources like some of us do.)
And if you inherently distrust the Telegraph because, well, you're a dyed-in-the-wool liberal leftie, a lot of other publications are beginning to see the light now: Example.
The current arrangement we have with the EU is pants, but when that ends in December we can look forward to, potentially, a clean break Brexit, a WTO Brexit.
Fingers crossed.
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T
The Byre
Dear Diary - Brexit - Day Eight.
The locusts have been a complete washout, a total no-show. I am rather disappointed as a swarm of locusts would have been exciting. I don't think Mrs. Stoatposture knows what she is talking about!
There has been much gossip and speculation recently as we got a postcard on Friday signed by both our HR and payroll person Mrs. Purvis AND Mr. Johnson our export manager. It was postmarked Kuala Lumpur and we had to look up where that was. They said it was the rainy season and mentioned 5M again. Something to do with the heat I guess. I suppose they met there by chance.
On Thursday one of the girls from packaging walked in on Mr. Grimbling in Customer Returns and started screaming. The MD Mr. Mallinson was called and Mr. Grimbling had to go home early. He didn't come in yesterday.
It's all gone a bit quiet about Brexit and I think everybody is now starting to worry more about catching that Chinese illness. I was going to get sweet-and-sour pork from the 'Mr. Rice' take-away but went to the chippy instead. You can't be too careful!
I think I'll watch a couple of episodes of 'Columbo' tomorrow, just to take my mind off Brexit and all the trouble in the world.
The locusts have been a complete washout, a total no-show. I am rather disappointed as a swarm of locusts would have been exciting. I don't think Mrs. Stoatposture knows what she is talking about!
There has been much gossip and speculation recently as we got a postcard on Friday signed by both our HR and payroll person Mrs. Purvis AND Mr. Johnson our export manager. It was postmarked Kuala Lumpur and we had to look up where that was. They said it was the rainy season and mentioned 5M again. Something to do with the heat I guess. I suppose they met there by chance.
On Thursday one of the girls from packaging walked in on Mr. Grimbling in Customer Returns and started screaming. The MD Mr. Mallinson was called and Mr. Grimbling had to go home early. He didn't come in yesterday.
It's all gone a bit quiet about Brexit and I think everybody is now starting to worry more about catching that Chinese illness. I was going to get sweet-and-sour pork from the 'Mr. Rice' take-away but went to the chippy instead. You can't be too careful!
I think I'll watch a couple of episodes of 'Columbo' tomorrow, just to take my mind off Brexit and all the trouble in the world.
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Yeah, but that's the Torygraph and no Remainer in here is going to believe it.
But the FT, the CBI, all the biggest scaremongers are now changing their tune. Even the Guardian is finally coming to their senses. Here's the economics editor of the Guardian:
The title of the article is "Why Brexit is a chance to fix the UK economy’s long-term problems"
To our friends at the Guardian, welcome to planet Earth
But the FT, the CBI, all the biggest scaremongers are now changing their tune. Even the Guardian is finally coming to their senses. Here's the economics editor of the Guardian:
The title of the article is "Why Brexit is a chance to fix the UK economy’s long-term problems"
To our friends at the Guardian, welcome to planet Earth
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Yes but you're still talking in fantasy land. We are not low cost, we are not low tax, we are not an offshore tax haven. If anything, under the new money laundering laws, the UK is somewhere you don't want to put your money or invest, because if it isn't whiter than white, it's going to be frozen.
We've spent decades aligning with the EU structure and deleting our own bits and bobs. Now, we've got less than 12 months to go back the other way and start putting everything back in place to be away from the EU but we are struggling to align with some other trading bloc. If we don't want to trade with the EU, which looks likely, we have to go somewhere else and replace that lost trade but other countries are concerned about standards, policies, border checks. We have no answer for much of this.
The only bloc or country big enough to sustain the size of deals we need are the US. They're the only economy big enough and interested enough to replace certain trading with the EU but if anyone thinks the US are a big cuddly teddy bear, then they simply have no idea of how the US handles trade talks. They smash everyone in to the ground with a big hammer and then get the cheapest deal. They're doing it with China - I don't think they'll have any issue smashing the UK in to oblivion, considering we're desperate to trade with anyone but the EU.
Oh and (and possibly set up a new trading block with the UK) ????? What, like....I don't know....another EU trading bloc, considering these would be EU countries? We've just spent the last 4 years getting rid of them, why on earth would they want anything to do with us?
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We can have different laws. Ones not the same as the EU requires its members to have.
Give it time, we can become what our politicians wish us to become. Whether that's a good idea or not.
Just a couple of months back a party wanted to do a lot more state ownership of stuff that's been private for decades - luckily they didn't win but if they had then some things would have changed.
Give it time - politicians cannot mess everything up in one day, takes even them a few days!
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You just don't get it. If you had any idea of how strong our position is you'd be thinking that Johnson should bring that deadline forward - to end June. He should tell the EU that unless they have something solid and acceptable in place by end June, we're not interested and we'll leave in December on WTO terms.
FFS, we are not trying to align, we're doing "trade deals". There's a difference!
Where do you get this nonsense from? We're happy to trade with them - and they are even more desperate to trade with us given we buy a lot more from them than they buy from us. But it needs to be trade on our terms, or at least terms a lot more in our favour than the EU has seemed willing to extend so far. If they wake up and smell the coffee they'll realise that they screwed up when they didn't make the concessions Cameron asked for, they screwed up when they made it difficult for May by being too demanding and they need to be careful they don't screw up again.
We don't "need" to replace the trade we're doing with the EU. You talk so much nonsense! There's nothing to be replaced. Most of the trade we do with the EU will continue ....but on WTO terms. If any deal we reach with the EU involves more than, say, 10% of loss of trade to our businesses, we'll take our own money elsewhere and switch our buying to countries outside of the EU. The EU knows that.
We are the customers. We are the ones with the money. We should have been calling the shots from the start if it wasn't for Theresa May (not to mention the omnishambles that the Tories were in and the slender majority they had in Parliament).
Pressure is building in Denmark and Holland to get out. Italy may have to get out! Ireland would be wise to get out as well and join a UK trading block, one built on trade rather than federalist ambitions. But if any other countries leave the EU who do you think it'll make sense for them to seek a close partnership with if not the largest economy in Europe that's not in the EU?
You seem to know as much about this as you know about trade. The UK is a very safe haven for dirty money. London is this planet'smoney laundering capital and it isthe epicentre of global corruption. That's despite us being the main drivers for international action on BEPS.
Combine that with low-tax, low-regs and further welcoming dodgy money ...and it will decimate the EU (hence their clamour for "level playing field" ie. "please don't compete with us, Britain").
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Yes, our businesses are not going to avoid buying Spanish lettuce simply because its from the EU. Our wine merchants are not going to avoid buying Champagne, French wine, brandy etc simply because its from the EU.
We aren't going to stop car dealers from importing multiple models of car just because they are made in the EU.
We will continue to buy from EU. And if they want Cornish pasties they can darn well import from us!
Trade will continue. May slow down a little, may slow down a lot - that depends on organisation and governmental decisions more than logistic companies. But the ships will still sail and the lorries will still deliver.
Now if we can just get the French to speak English.... oh well.
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My lord, where to start.
"He should tell the EU that unless they have something solid and acceptable in place by end June, we're not interested and we'll leave in December on WTO terms" - The UK are the ones that are messing about. We want everything and expect the EU to bend over backwards to accommodate. We are not in a strong position, we are in a position where Johnson doesn't care if we leave without a deal. It doesn't matter if the impact of this is negative. He's delivered Brexit, its what was voted for, that's all. He didn't say it was going to be painless or that it was going to benefit the UK in the short term. So, no deal with the EU? Doesn't matter does it.
"FFS, we are not trying to align, we're doing "trade deals". There's a difference!" - as part of the trade deal, you have to be aligned to certain standards. For example, on produce, the EU cannot drop or raise standards that impact the remaining members. They cannot do a deal with the UK, if we are going to have lower quality production or safety standards. Equally, if we went the other way (we won't), EU standards would be below ours. So, you cannot have a trade deal if the standards are different between the two parties. It would leave the other members in the EU sceptical and unlikely to sign off any agreement that sees their own producers/exporters impacted by lower quality imports.
"Where do you get this nonsense from? We're happy to trade with them - and they are even more desperate to trade with us given we buy a lot more from them than they buy from us. But it needs to be trade on our terms, or at least terms a lot more in our favour than the EU has seemed willing to extend so far" - you contradict yourself in one paragraph. You say we're happy to trade with them ..... but only if they do as we say. No, that means we're not happy to trade with them because they won't do what we want them to do, which is completely rip up their systems and replace them with something that allows us to trade differently with other nations. Again, the UK are the ones changing everything. Why do you not see this? The EU hasn't changed anything, WE have, we are the ones that have taken our ball home. The EU are stood around scratching their heads and not quite sure why we're so angry about things that we agreed to. We had MEPs that were in place, to put British interests first. We were represented in the EU and sat at the table for all negotiations.
"We don't "need" to replace the trade we're doing with the EU. You talk so much nonsense! There's nothing to be replaced. Most of the trade we do with the EU will continue ....but on WTO terms." - Stop saying this. Have you any idea of the complexity of 'WTO terms' when you're dealing with a trading bloc that doesn't have everything set up at the border yet. We don't even have the correct border stations built or the correct systems/software in place to handle WTO trading with the EU. The whole import/export system has to be upgraded and modified to handle EU trade. This is NOT a simple tap of a button on the laptop, the entire tariff system will be upgraded and applied to ALL imports and exports between the UK and EU.
Gove has already admitted that it will ake the UK 5 years to get everything ready: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders
“In questions and answers his officials talked of an ‘operational border’ from the beginning of 2021, which they said was laying the foundation for best borders in 2025,”
"Pressure is building in Denmark and Holland to get out. Italy may have to get out! Ireland would be wise to get out as well and join a UK trading block, one built on trade rather than federalist ambitions. But if any other countries leave the EU who do you think it'll make sense for them to seek a close partnership with if not the largest economy in Europe that's not in the EU?" - no, no, no. The UK is one of the largest economies while an EU member. We do not know the size of the UK economy after Brexit is completed, because we will need a few years to sort out the mess and the new import/export operations. The UK economy is likely to shrink initially, unless we have some strong leadership - we don't have this. We people running around like headless chickens because they've got less than 12 months to make this work and the government have admitted it will take at least 5 years! Ireland have bigger issues than leaving the EU, they could massively benefit from the UK leaving and become an import/export hub for the EU. The EU will offer them bags full of cash to stay in and Ireland are aligned with the Euro, it would be too big a risk for them to leave and then they'd just be jumping back in with the UK, for what reason? We might not be as big an economy as we are now (we could be, but I don't think the government have a clue).
"You seem to know as much about this as you know about trade. The UK is a very safe haven for dirty money. London is this planet'smoney laundering capital and it isthe epicentre of global corruption. That's despite us being the main drivers for international action on BEPS.
Combine that with low-tax, low-regs and further welcoming dodgy money ...and it will decimate the EU (hence their clamour for "level playing field" ie. "please don't compete with us, Britain")."
Oh my days. No. We're aligning with the EU system for money laundering as of January 2020: https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-crime/money-laundering-regulations
Yep. The UK has been a haven for dirty money. Especially dodgy offshore companies purchasing property in London, using those addresses for money laundering operations and selling the properties to make their money whiter than white. This is now changing and again, we have to be aligned with the EU on this subject or they won't share data on individuals or companies for the purpose of crime fighting.
Again, you mention the low-tax, low-regs benefits but again miss the point that we are not currently either of those things. So, we can be low tax but the UK government seem to be going the opposite way and increasing various taxes and associated business costs. Low regs? No, we are aligned with the EU on many things and they won't agree to certain trade deals in certain sectors unless we commit to continuing this. If we drop lower regulation, the EU may say we cannot be involved with import/export in those sectors and they won't be part of a trade deal, we will have to go somewhere else.
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Now, on top of all of the above. Does the EU want to do a deal with the UK? Yes! Do we want to do a deal with the EU? Yes - if they abide by our rules and change theirs. The EU wants our money, I agree, they want us to trade. They want our import/export market, they want to be involved. The problem is that the UK is being completely unreasonable in its expectations. and wants to have different rules for different countries/trading blocs. This all has to be controlled with borders and we are nowhere near having those systems in place.
Have you looked at the new tariffs website? https://www.gov.uk/guidance/using-the-trade-tariff-tool-to-find-a-commodity-code <<< welcome to commodity codes. A single bar of chocolate can have multiple pieces of paperwork attached. Got an articulated lorry full of chocolate and some furniture? Good luck at the border! You'll now need to produce documentation for every single consignment and every single part of it or you're entire truck load is going to be held.
Items packaged as a set
If your items are packaged in a set to sell and be used together, you should classify them to the most significant item in that set or, if that’s not identifiable, under the commodity code with the highest numerical value.
You must classify the items separately if they’re either:
As a general rule, if you have an item made of 2 substances (for example, clothing that is 60% cotton and 40% polyester) you’d usually classify the item using the higher percentage content. There are exceptions, so check the relevant section and chapter notes for your goods.
Have you looked at the new tariffs website? https://www.gov.uk/guidance/using-the-trade-tariff-tool-to-find-a-commodity-code <<< welcome to commodity codes. A single bar of chocolate can have multiple pieces of paperwork attached. Got an articulated lorry full of chocolate and some furniture? Good luck at the border! You'll now need to produce documentation for every single consignment and every single part of it or you're entire truck load is going to be held.
Items packaged as a set
If your items are packaged in a set to sell and be used together, you should classify them to the most significant item in that set or, if that’s not identifiable, under the commodity code with the highest numerical value.
You must classify the items separately if they’re either:
- not packaged as a set for retail sale
- not to be used together
As a general rule, if you have an item made of 2 substances (for example, clothing that is 60% cotton and 40% polyester) you’d usually classify the item using the higher percentage content. There are exceptions, so check the relevant section and chapter notes for your goods.
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I assume this and your following post are in response to a Clinto post. Be prepared for your arguments to be ignored, you and your intelligence to be attacked and villified all without the slightest shred of evidence or justification, because he knows.
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Assuming that @Clinton is completely wrong, and @Newchodge and @thetiger2015 are completely right and knowing that you've had 3+ years to prepare, what have you done to get ready for Brexit?
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It's always been like that for real exporters.
If a business has chosen to only export to the EU and ignored the wider world, well...
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"Based on available data it is estimated that 9% of the UKs SMEs export and a further 15% are in the supply chains of other businesses that export.2 This is based on the entire business population (both registered and un-registered)."
So 91% of SMEs don't export, and 85% of SMEs don't supply exporters. Which means all these WTO rules won't affect them at all.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...7/bis-16-230-smes-supply-chains-exporters.pdf
More businesses import goods, around 50% higher, which means around 14% of UK SMEs import, or 86% don't, and 23% are in supply chains, or 77% are not.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...attachment_data/file/660280/IDBR_OTS_2016.pdf
So 91% of SMEs don't export, and 85% of SMEs don't supply exporters. Which means all these WTO rules won't affect them at all.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...7/bis-16-230-smes-supply-chains-exporters.pdf
More businesses import goods, around 50% higher, which means around 14% of UK SMEs import, or 86% don't, and 23% are in supply chains, or 77% are not.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...attachment_data/file/660280/IDBR_OTS_2016.pdf
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@thetiger2015 , given all your wailing and gnashing of teeth, why are you still in the UK? If it's as bad as you think, surely it makes sense to get the hell out.
Or is it just bad enough to whine but not to actually do anything about it?
We are a trading nation. Have been for centuries. It's logical that we would choose to trade than to not trade. But some pathetic little wimps believe that we should trade on terms dictated by others. We are happy to trade on terms that suit us. The EU either finds that it suits them as well, in which case they can trade with us, or they don't like the terms and can find other markets for the stuff they currently sell us. As the entity doing more buying than selling, we're in a stronger position to dictate terms. That's how frigging trade works! How can you build 200+ posts in a business forum and not know that?!
Actually, thinking about it, you don't make many business posts. Maybe you're just an EU stooge here to wind us up and troll this forum.
after I provided some links. Maybe there's hope for you yet. You can repent, get smarter, get more widely read. You might even be able to get as smart as a Leaver
Or is it just bad enough to whine but not to actually do anything about it?
No, it doesn't! Till you get that through your head you won't understand. You seriously need to get out of that little echo chamber of Remainer news. Go and read some other publications. And try and get your head around the arguments.
This is good example of you not listening. You said in an earlier post that we are struggling to align with another bloc. My reply was that, no, we aren't struggling to align with another bloc. And you go blah, blah, blah about the EU. Please try and focus. We are not trying to align with another trading bloc (another means other than the EU, duh!).
Can't you get it through that skull of yours that if we leave the EU on a clean break we do not need to align on anything? Why is that so difficult to understand? If we leave on WTO we are free to go to a low-tax, low-reg model. The EU can say whatever they frigging want, why should we care?
We are a trading nation. Have been for centuries. It's logical that we would choose to trade than to not trade. But some pathetic little wimps believe that we should trade on terms dictated by others. We are happy to trade on terms that suit us. The EU either finds that it suits them as well, in which case they can trade with us, or they don't like the terms and can find other markets for the stuff they currently sell us. As the entity doing more buying than selling, we're in a stronger position to dictate terms. That's how frigging trade works! How can you build 200+ posts in a business forum and not know that?!Actually, thinking about it, you don't make many business posts. Maybe you're just an EU stooge here to wind us up and troll this forum.
Oh, good, you've come a full 180° on that
after I provided some links. Maybe there's hope for you yet. You can repent, get smarter, get more widely read. You might even be able to get as smart as a Leaver
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President Trump to increase tariffs on EU goods in response to illegal subsidies to Airbus.
Airbus who were outspoken about remaining in the EU and Brexit negotiations have been receiving billions from the EU in illegal subsidies.
Maybe people can now see why Airbus was so vocal in its threats re Brexit. Now Scottish Whiskey sellers amongst others will have to pay for these illegal subsidies in increased tariffs on their goods.
Airbus who were outspoken about remaining in the EU and Brexit negotiations have been receiving billions from the EU in illegal subsidies.
Maybe people can now see why Airbus was so vocal in its threats re Brexit. Now Scottish Whiskey sellers amongst others will have to pay for these illegal subsidies in increased tariffs on their goods.
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Honestly I don't think Brexit will have any big effect regarding trades between the countries.
I'm sure a lot of companies will keep selling things to UK as they have done in the past.
I'm sure a lot of companies will keep selling things to UK as they have done in the past.
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A
Ally Maxwell
I don't think anyone is disputing that, from either side of the argument.
The difference will be what tariffs and customs delays are put in place and whether certain goods to and from certain other countries will become unviable.
It is an absolute fact that trading under WTO terms and without trading and standards agreements, barriers are put in place, both financial and non financial.
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Scottish Whiskey sellers will be very glad when their products are not classed as EU products then.
Got to admire a country that claims illegal subsidies are given by a foreign nation to the local plane maker while at the same time keeping their own plane makers open by other state aid.
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We could even make it easier for particular products to be traded to Britain by use of import duties or not - we won't be under EU import duties and restrictions. So some stuff could in theory become cheaper to import. Unless government wants cash...
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Ally Maxwell
Except when the tariffs go on sales to the EU instead of the USA ? Anyone who thinks the USA is going to give the UK tariff free access to its market is deluded in the extreme.
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Wasn't suggesting US will give tariff free access to us. No reason they should, plenty of reasons they shouldn't.
However the trade war between EU and US won't be impacting our goods with import taxes imposed on EU goods being sold to the US.
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The UK grew only 1.1% 2019.
Still the highest rate among European members of G7. Increase in GDP Q4 2019 with Q4 2018:
US +2.3%
Canada +1.7% (Q3)
UK +1.1%
Eurozone +0.9%
France +0.8%
Germany +0.4%
Italy 0.0%
Japan -0.4%
Seems remoaner experts have got it wrong, again.
Still the highest rate among European members of G7. Increase in GDP Q4 2019 with Q4 2018:
US +2.3%
Canada +1.7% (Q3)
UK +1.1%
Eurozone +0.9%
France +0.8%
Germany +0.4%
Italy 0.0%
Japan -0.4%
Seems remoaner experts have got it wrong, again.
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The number of people in work in the UK rose a larger-than-forecast 180,000, leaving the jobless rate at a four-decade low of 3.8%, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The numbers will likely reinforce speculation that the Bank of England will refrain from cutting interest rates this year...... Bloomberg.com
Seems the huge Brexit recession still hasn’t happened yet, 3.5years after the vote.
Still, as remoaners love to point out, the experts are experts.
Seems the huge Brexit recession still hasn’t happened yet, 3.5years after the vote.
Still, as remoaners love to point out, the experts are experts.
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The EU earned a 125 billion euro goods surplus from the UK in 2019 - almost 2/3 of the EU's entire global surplus.
Think about that for a second - almost 2/3 of their entire global surplus.
After Brexit the UK will account for roughly 40% of the EU's sales with the Rest of the World.
Think about that, too, for a second.
I work in M&A and often advise clients looking to sell their business that if they have a customer concentration of 20% or more that puts them in a vulnerable position.
We are a 40% customer. The EU would be wise to play nicely. Fortunately, unlike May, Boris has some guts to stand up to them.
The EU's deal with Canada involves no alignment, no open borders, no fishing rights etc. The EU's trade with us is 7x greater than it is with Canada. If they can't give us the deal they've given Canada then they're just trying to be awkward and punitive and we would be justified in taking our business elsewhere.
To make matters worse for them, the EU is in deep trouble budget wise. Mega, mega trouble. There's a huge hole left by our departure - 75 billion euros over the Multiannual Financial Framework - and nobody is willing to contribute more money to even slightly fill that gap. Their budget summit starting on 20/02 is going to be a right fun event. It's heading for a veto and deadlock.
And if we walk without a deal the EU won't even get the divorce settlement of £30 billion odd, making matters even worse. Ouch!
If the EU is willing to damage their own economies by not giving us pretty much everything we ask for ...they'll be in even bigger trouble next year.
The numbers are not looking good for them. In my line of business, you don't go to market when your numbers aren't great. It puts you in a weak bargaining position. But the EU don't have a choice of timing. They've got to the end of this year or it's WTO.
The UK finds itself in an advantageous negotiating position now and we have the right man for the job (as much as the lefties would hate to admit it). Things are looking bright indeed.
Think about that for a second - almost 2/3 of their entire global surplus.
After Brexit the UK will account for roughly 40% of the EU's sales with the Rest of the World.
Think about that, too, for a second.
I work in M&A and often advise clients looking to sell their business that if they have a customer concentration of 20% or more that puts them in a vulnerable position.
We are a 40% customer. The EU would be wise to play nicely. Fortunately, unlike May, Boris has some guts to stand up to them.
The EU's deal with Canada involves no alignment, no open borders, no fishing rights etc. The EU's trade with us is 7x greater than it is with Canada. If they can't give us the deal they've given Canada then they're just trying to be awkward and punitive and we would be justified in taking our business elsewhere.
To make matters worse for them, the EU is in deep trouble budget wise. Mega, mega trouble. There's a huge hole left by our departure - 75 billion euros over the Multiannual Financial Framework - and nobody is willing to contribute more money to even slightly fill that gap. Their budget summit starting on 20/02 is going to be a right fun event.
It's heading for a veto and deadlock.And if we walk without a deal the EU won't even get the divorce settlement of £30 billion odd, making matters even worse. Ouch!
If the EU is willing to damage their own economies by not giving us pretty much everything we ask for ...they'll be in even bigger trouble next year.
The numbers are not looking good for them. In my line of business, you don't go to market when your numbers aren't great. It puts you in a weak bargaining position. But the EU don't have a choice of timing. They've got to the end of this year or it's WTO.
The UK finds itself in an advantageous negotiating position now and we have the right man for the job (as much as the lefties would hate to admit it). Things are looking bright indeed.
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To make matters worse for them, the EU is in deep trouble budget wise. Mega, mega trouble. There's a huge hole left by our departure - 75 billion euros over the Multiannual Financial Framework - and nobody is willing to contribute more money to even slightly fill that gap. Their budget summit starting on 20/02 is going to be a right fun event.
I expect the places paying in plenty want to not increase payments, those who receive more money want the tap to open wider, not close a bit.
Think the fight can be televised with pay to view?
Can't blame the EU - if we developed a £75 billion black hole we'd... freeze benefits, borrow money, impose 'austerity' as its known. And still have people moaning, not least regarding paying interest on borrowing...
EU cannot do that.
Hey, what happens when another half dozen places start talking about leaving? EUxit?
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A
Ally Maxwell
The EU earned a 125 billion euro goods surplus from the UK in 2019 - almost 2/3 of the EU's entire global surplus.
Think about that for a second - almost 2/3 of their entire global surplus.
After Brexit the UK will account for roughly 40% of the EU's sales with the Rest of the World.
Think about that, too, for a second.
I work in M&A and often advise clients looking to sell their business that if they have a customer concentration of 20% or more that puts them in a vulnerable position.
We are a 40% customer. The EU would be wise to play nicely. Fortunately, unlike May, Boris has some guts to stand up to them.
The EU's deal with Canada involves no alignment, no open borders, no fishing rights etc. The EU's trade with us is 7x greater than it is with Canada. If they can't give us the deal they've given Canada then they're just trying to be awkward and punitive and we would be justified in taking our business elsewhere.
To make matters worse for them, the EU is in deep trouble budget wise. Mega, mega trouble. There's a huge hole left by our departure - 75 billion euros over the Multiannual Financial Framework - and nobody is willing to contribute more money to even slightly fill that gap. Their budget summit starting on 20/02 is going to be a right fun event.
And if we walk without a deal the EU won't even get the divorce settlement of £30 billion odd, making matters even worse. Ouch!
If the EU is willing to damage their own economies by not giving us pretty much everything we ask for ...they'll be in even bigger trouble next year.
The numbers are not looking good for them. In my line of business, you don't go to market when your numbers aren't great. It puts you in a weak bargaining position. But the EU don't have a choice of timing. They've got to the end of this year or it's WTO.
The UK finds itself in an advantageous negotiating position now and we have the right man for the job (as much as the lefties would hate to admit it). Things are looking bright indeed.
Don't want to get into a pro or anti brexit argument, but I'd love you to tell me what the advantages and the plus points of the UK solely trading on WTO terms are.
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Personally I believe there will be a deal, since both sides lose without one. If the EU do wish to go the WTO route, one small benefit for the UK will be very high customs duties received, but that would have to be offset against increased costs elsewhere, such as unemployment, benefits etc.
Time for the individual nations to flex their own requirements more, since the EU is petty enough not to care of hundreds of thousands of Europeans losing their jobs, but I doubt it will come to that. The UK does have a much stronger hand in these negotiations than most want the public to believe.
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Errr… why would we want very high customs duties?
That's us (you and me) paying more for any goods imported or made with imported stuff that is subject to customs duties.
Surely we'd want the best for the consumer - lower or no import duties? Though of course then lower government income.
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Ally Maxwell
There's not really any answer to that that wouldn't get me banned from the forum. Going the WTO route is not the choice of the EU you absolute muppet.
My question was to Clinton who often mentions that a Hard Brexit leaving us trading solely on WTO terms would be a good thing. I'm looking for reasons why, cause I frankly can't see them.
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As compared to what, a terrible deal from the EU, completely free trade globally, a great deal with the EU? Any comparison requires a basis.
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I guess we know how you feel.
However, it is the EU's choice. They are aware of the deadline if they string out the negotiations pointlessly or make demands that they know cannot be met, then they know that we will end up on WTO terms.
It's in the agreement that the EU co-wrote, agreed and ratified, so I'm not sure how you can think its not their choice.
It's our choice too, that's how negotiations work.
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