Swine Flu - another reason not to shop??

[Flexas1]

On a serious note we deal with a lot of companies from a Disaster Recovery perspective and most of them have sections within their Disaster Recovery Plans relating to Flu Pandemics / Infectious disease outbreaks. One major company I know of is set to enforce a homeworking policy for all office staff if the World Health Organisation raises the alert level again. On a site of 1000 office workers with air recirculation the chances of transmitting Flu pretty rapidly is very high so it is a real risk.

Also the school in Devon with a confirmed outbreak has been closed down for over a week. I'm not sure if the Health Protection Agency have the power to do it but it is not inconceivable for a large office block to be closed down for a lengthy period if there was a confirmed outbreak. The negative effect on businesses could be substantial.

Hopefully this will turn out to be a big fuss about not alot. I agree with the OP that confidence is fragile and consumers really do not need another excuse not to spend at the moment.

 

[usercart]

I studied Microbiology at Manchester Met around 15 years ago now.

There is no need to panic, as it will not solve anything.

There are 2 aspects to any Flu virus :

1. Its potency
2. Its contagioncy

The more potent a flu virus like Bird Flu (H5N1), the less its contagioncy. Bird Flu kills up to 1/3 of all the people it infects, but you really have to be intimate contact to contract it. Same with HIV.

The reason, why the authorities ARE concerned is, Swine flu seems at the moment not to be as contagious as seasonal flu, which almost everyone gets. But it does kill more quickly and is more likely to kill.

If the virus carries on the way it is, we may be able to get on top of it in around a year and get rid of it. If it mutates or being less potent, but more contagious then you will just a dose of the flu but be unlikely to die.

The worse case scenario is the flu virus may infect someone who, could change the nature of the virus by having a secondary infection at the same time like the common cold. This may make it more potent and more infectious. This is what the world is preparing for, as it could potentially if left to nature, we could lose around a million or more people. To be fair, its unlikely. (Famous last words).

 

[CatchFriday]

First off the NHS is fully ready to fight Swine flu, and indeed has stocked up on resources for a number of years to deal with any outbreak such as this.

It's really amazing how journalists want to create panic so that newspapers sell.

It's also interesting how many drug companies and private enterprise want to get on the bandwagon to create an interest, isn't it?

It was not so long ago that I was in Israel during the first Gulf War and picked up a gas mask, knowing fully well that the nerve gas could go through your skin.

Maybe more people will travel by bike than tube?

“Article Provided by: www.catchFriday.com”

 

[cjd]

First off the NHS is fully ready to fight Swine flu, and indeed has stocked up on resources for a number of years to deal with any outbreak such as this.

I had dinner with a doctor (GP) and a hospital nurse last night. Neither had any Tamiflu or knew when they'd get it.

Tamiflu can only help in the first 24-48 hours of an infection, neither of them could tell me at what point a person would know they were infected. It seems likely to me that the majority of those infected will only know it once they're very ill.......

 

[Cabal46]

I am airing on suspicion purely because it is a new, NEVER before seen strain, where the reassortement is between the bird, pig AND human genetic profile.

The Spanish Flu in 1918-1919, which had the same patterns as Swine Flu (broke out in March, mild cases initially, occurred in waves that got got bigger, has N1H1 profile) killed 50 million people and that's a conservative figure. We are due a big pandemic, this may be it!

This amalgamation of virus strains is unprecedented. Normal seasonal flu is influenza type B. When animal virus' have occurred in the past they are influenza type A, which is much harder for humans to catch. This new strain (N1H1) contains both AND from two animal genetic lineages.

Here's a map to give you a visual representation of the spread.

The permutations to develop a vaccine therefore increases exponentially, along with the fact it may mutate due to cultural differences. Turmeric for example, is very good for immune defence, so IF it hits India, the virus may mutate differently because their diets are largely curry based (hope that generalisation doesn't offend).

As sad as it sounds, i'm just waiting to see if and how many deaths will occur in USA to negate any further speculation. Info will be much more available then, as people will blog first hand experiences, thus omitting the convoluted middle-man crap from MSM.

Again, this is a NEW virus strain, with NO vaccine. Tamiflu will just appease symptoms for 1-2 days. I suggest building your immune system by drinking orange juice and eating oranges, Vit C is great.

WHO have raised the level to 5, which means 'imminent pandemic' and for good reason. The media, if anything, are playing this down and the full facts of deaths aren't being released in Mexico. Something smells fishy, imho.

Give it till next week to see an exponential increase in cases in the UK and deaths in USA. If they don't, then great, nothing to worry about.

p.s. masks will do nothing! The virus infects through mucus membranes, so avoid picking your nose, rubbing eyes, biting nails, etc.

 

[davidmcc3]

I've read through the posts here and other places on this subject, and I'm really amazed at some of the attitudes on display.

There's no need to panic. (aside: how does one panic, other than running around shouting "Don't panic!" ?)

But there is every reason to be prepared. If/when we get a serious outbreak here in the UK (see my blog "Flu is just another unplanned disruption" on ideasright.wordpress.com), all of us in business need to be prepared.

If we haven't prepared, we should be shot (by owners/shareholders).

And work done to prepare for this flu outbreak will bring benefits whatever the reason for staff absences.

Can your business afford to do nothing (especially in the present economic climate)?

 

[Adam Moore]

http://www.DoiHaveTheSwineFlu.com

 

[Cabal46]

They are just announcing the first human-to-human infection in Scotland (Source: BBC News 24).

I stocked up on food for 2 months this week. I am taking zero chance as people start to flood shops to buy essentials as self quarantines kick in next week.

If you don't really understand what exponential means, then please read this and this.

This virus strain is very virulent with an estimated 6% mortality rate!

Again, there is NO cure, it is a NEW strain. Why take the risk?

 

[davidmcc3]

Ah ... now we have another definition for 'panic'!

 

[adam]

I stocked up on food for 2 months this week. I am taking zero chance as people start to flood shops to buy essentials as self quarantines kick in next week.

Please don't.

Stupidity attracts stupidity sadly and we will end up with a food shortage and no flu!

 

[Weber]

32 Million face masks ordered, we will end up with some cheap crap from China that don't work.

My wife works for a major fac mask producing company and is in sales, she can't sell enough of them and there is no way in the world the top compaines can supply FFP3 quality ones in those quantities in such a short time.

On the other hand, she will get a crackling bonus this year

 

[CatchFriday]

I had dinner with a doctor (GP) and a hospital nurse last night. Neither had any Tamiflu or knew when they'd get it.

Tamiflu can only help in the first 24-48 hours of an infection, neither of them could tell me at what point a person would know they were infected. It seems likely to me that the majority of those infected will only know it once they're very ill.......

I work in public health care and yesterday I did get an email about Tamiflu and have been receiving updates since the 28th.

So much alarm, and ado, and even though some cases are surfacing, i still think that the NHS can deal with it.

 

[movietub]

Well I started this thread to talk about public hysteria (even if over nothing) effecting businesses and infrastructure.

But now the situation is completely different. There is no doubt it travels far and easily, person to person and there is no effective cure.

So it really is time to prepare for a hell of a shake - I firmly believe this will cause more disruption to more businesses in a much shorter period of time than the recession. If just 10% of us get laid up (at best) then everything from trains running on time to emergency responses is compromised. Everytime a school is closed down 25% of mothers who work take time off to care for their children. Courier companies will miss targets.

If the entirely realistoc 40% of us are effected then things will grind to a halt all over the place.

So jokes aside now - I'm not a dramatic person but this IS about to get very serious.

And it may also effect your health of course.

 

[Cabal46]

Yes movietub, that's correct, i'm glad you see the seriousness of this.

I have been following this very, very closely and something just doesn't add up.

For WHO (World Health Organisation) to declare level 5, which by the way will go to maximum level 6 either today or tomorrow, as there are now confirmed human-to-human infections on different continents, and the media to misinform the public is pretty disgusting. WHO are even saying they expect deaths to be imminent, which is something they wouldn't say lightly.

The media are making out that masks will help (the virus is smaller than N95 masks can filter) and they have anti-virals to help those with suspected infections. There is no cure, so if you get infected you will have to endure a hellish flu including coughs, sneezing, diarrhoea, vomiting, aches, etc. First indication is a hoarsiness to your voice and sore throat.

The guy in Scotland has been quarantined in his own bedroom and they have given Tamiflu to his family. That is wrong. Tamiflu should only be taken 24-48hours after you show symptoms, to be effective, and even then it alleviates symptoms for 1-2 days and will help respiratory problems.

If they start to pre-empt the virus by giving everyone Tamiflu, then a defense will be built up, making a second wave even more potent in Autumn. That second wave may be the one that could kill a lot of people. This outbreak may be mild now and the summer will burn off the virus. If it returns in some mutated strain in sept/oct, then prepare for hell.

My hunch is that Mexico is not giving a true indication of deaths. As we speak there are people in America on respirators in critical condition, but their medi-care can prolong any fatality. As soon as deaths are announced in America, then i'm afraid it's every man for himself.

I just urge you to stock up with essentials, before it's a free for all.

Also, there are states in America that are passing laws to invoke martial law and setting up field labs in Texas with some questionable national guard deployments.

 

[movietub]

Also the Director of WHO has twice reffered to this being the start of a pandemic.

Its worrying that the people who best understand the real situation arn't even bothering to do the normal blurry PR presentaion.

I'm convinced - this is happening and its going to change eveyones life drastically. Over the next two weeks the worlds gunna start feeling very gloomy.

 

[hughlss]

Please be assured that there's absolutely nothing to be concerned about providing you follow the Foreign Office advice and don't get closer than 6ft. to anyone else.
No, seriously!

"Last night, the Foreign Office updated its travel advice, warning visitors to Mexico to avoid large crowds, kissing and to maintain a distance of at least 6ft from other people". (as reported in the Telegraph)

 

[Beachcomber]

Problem is, we are all so used to media hysteria that we tend to ignore problems until it is too late, or genuine concerns are ignored because they are not considered newsworthy (sexy) enough.

Sod it, I'm only a short boat ride from Lundy island. If it all breaks loose then it's a quick stock up in Tesco, hijack a fishing trawler and I'll see you all when it's over

Now wheres that zombie survival plan, need to edit it to read 'flu carrier' instead of 'walking dead'

 

[360interactive]

cabal and others, i've never heard so much rubbish in my life. You lot seriously need to get out more.

The world has survived pandemics many times before, and it will survive this one. I bet you were the same people saying this sort of thing during SARS, Avian Flu, Aids (for those old enough to remember back then), plus others.

Yes it's bad, yes I do know something about it (spent 11 months planning for a pandemic in 1996, and still have MANY contacts in the know) but it is not going to be the 28 days later scenario you are all painting.

As this stands, it is milder than most seasonal flus, and has so far got a smaller fatality rate. KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE!

 

[360interactive]

cabal and others, i've never heard so much rubbish in my life. You lot seriously need to get out more.

The world has survived pandemics many times before, and it will survive this one. I bet you were the same people saying this sort of thing during SARS, Avian Flu, Aids (for those old enough to remember back then), plus others.

Yes it's bad, yes I do know something about it (spent 11 months planning for a pandemic in 1996, and still have MANY contacts in the know) but it is not going to be the 28 days later scenario you are all painting.

As this stands, it is milder than most seasonal flus, and has so far got a smaller fatality rate. KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE!

and just in case you didn't know, in the US last year over 36,000 died of the Flu. In the UK the figure was 4000. The amount of people who caught it and survived, is astronomical. The reason is wasn't a pandemic? The strain (all variants of H1N1) were isolated to single countries.

This strain will be worse than that, but it's not going to be as bad as old cabal is making out, with riots and food shortages.

 

[Cabal46]

cabal and others, i've never heard so much rubbish in my life. You lot seriously need to get out more.

The world has survived pandemics many times before, and it will survive this one. I bet you were the same people saying this sort of thing during SARS, Avian Flu, Aids (for those old enough to remember back then), plus others.

Yes it's bad, yes I do know something about it (spent 11 months planning for a pandemic in 1996, and still have MANY contacts in the know) but it is not going to be the 28 days later scenario you are all painting.

As this stands, it is milder than most seasonal flus, and has so far got a smaller fatality rate. KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE!

I disagree

This outbreak depends on how "mutated" it has gotten. Most flu's don't go totally in the opposite direction so you will have somewhat of a defence built up to them.

It is like this: people aren't meant to carry around DNA/RNA from an animal species; now we have a flu that has H1N1 A & B with DNA/RNA of animal flu strains.

Now with the N1H1 B we are accustomed to it. It is the most prolific type of seasonal flu strain. Now the N1H1 A is another story and is what makes this flu so much more scary to the people studying it. Simply because we have very little (if any) immunity to it.

On top of that the N1H1 A makes it easier for the virus to mutate at a faster rate and pick up other virus's!

The reassortement of three different virus' make it dangerous and is unlike ANY previous pandemic. Also consider the global village we know live in, so in comparison 1918 was pretty mild, due to limited travel.

Why not air on caution? I think i may be overly worried because i have asthma and there is no way i'm taking any generic g'ment 'wonder' drug.

 

[cjd]

I work in public health care and yesterday I did get an email about Tamiflu and have been receiving updates since the 28th.

Yes, they have the emails too and the nurse has had the internal briefing. But neither the GP nor the Health Authority has the actual drugs.

No doubt they will in the next few days but it does demonstrate the gap between rhetoric and reality.

Personally, I'm working on a business case for a web-based, remote inoculation; that way an email might be as effective as the real thing.

 

[360interactive]

I disagree

This outbreak depends on how "mutated" it has gotten. Most flu's don't go totally in the opposite direction so you will have somewhat of a defence built up to them.

It is like this: people aren't meant to carry around DNA/RNA from an animal species; now we have a flu that has H1N1 A & B with DNA/RNA of animal flu strains.

Now with the N1H1 B we are accustomed to it. It is the most prolific type of seasonal flu strain. Now the N1H1 A is another story and is what makes this flu so much more scary to the people studying it. Simply because we have very little (if any) immunity to it.

On top of that the N1H1 A makes it easier for the virus to mutate at a faster rate and pick up other virus's!

The reassortement of three different virus' make it dangerous and is unlike ANY previous pandemic. Also consider the global village we know live in, so in comparison 1918 was pretty mild, due to limited travel.

Why not air on caution? I think i may be overly worried because i have asthma and there is no way i'm taking any generic g'ment 'wonder' drug.

All valid points, I agree. I also air on the side of caution, although I don't swing in the other direction and feel the end is nigh. Remember those that said there would be looting and riots, mass panic due to the recession, and generally the end of the world?

but just think, if it does wipe out most of the UK think how many more jobs will be out there for people.

 

[Cabal46]

...it is not going to be the 28 days later scenario you are all painting.

Yes i know. I don't envisage the end of humanity and keeping on topic, it will be bad for business!

The whole point is that this virus is very, very virile. Let's take the Spanish Flu as an indicator, as the swine virus is exhibiting similar patters. If the infection rate is 50% with a 6% fatality, then that could be:

6.7billion people on planet
3.3billion infected
mortality = 165million

It will take 6 months to create a vaccine, so whichever side of the fence you choose is up to you.

Again, here's a map so you monitor transmission, or another here.

Also, when i read posts like this, i do get suspicious. It is corroborated by the fact the news has relegated the story to second slot.

I have just watched the evening news in the UK. Flu story is relegated to second place and no mention of the latest infections or the suspected infections.

Out of interest i called a friend who works for the BBC at a local radio station (Radio Nottingham) when i asked why the sudden drop in importance he said that the news editor was told from above to relegate the story. He said it was unusual for something developing so fast to be shelved and that his editor was furious, but there was nothing he could do!

 

[Beachcomber]

.........Remember those that said there would be looting and riots, mass panic due to the recession, and generally the end of the world?

While I truly believe this is all a storm in a tea cup I am prepared for the worst - not because I think this could turn into a real threat but because I understand we are only ever 72 hours from anarchy, flu or no flu.

All it takes is a disruption to the fuel / food transportation system and most of society will grind to a halt quite quickly - remember the feral behaviour seen during the fuel strike where drivers would syphon the tanks of ambulances etc. Doesn't take that much for the general rules of civilization to go out the window. Even a bit of snow triggers panic buying and widespread irrational behaviour.

I've been in the habbit of having a prepared 'ditch kit' in the house for many years.

Having said that, I'm not overly concerned about flu. I'll obviously keep an eye on the situation but nothing more than that for the time being.

...........and anyway - shouldn't we be erring on the side of caution?

 

[BlueprintAnimation]

I've given myself a (psychosomatic) sore throat just reading this thread... maybe the reduction in news coverage is to stop people 'thinking themselves ill'? Call me crazy but I'm convinced the more you think about being ill the more likely it is that you will be, maybe it depresses your immune system or something.

 

[hughlss]

What concerns me most is that pharmacists, doctors and hospitals are not being stocked up with Tamiflu the main method of treatment Stocks are being held at a secret location(s) and will be distributed as and when required. In a pandemic situation I believe the supply chain will break down and courses of treatment may not reach sufferers within the day or two required to be effective.
There is the potential for disaster here - I believe we should be lobbying our MP's to address this situation and attempt to force distribution to a local level right now before the demand escalates.

 

[usercart]

The past 2 years have been like the "Ten Plagues of Egypt". Lets see:

• Banks going bust or being take over by other banks who lend billions and then go bust themselves.
• 4 Million unemployed with 2 million permanently unemployable after recession/depression is done with us.
• Bird Flu, Swine Flue and the stuff that comes out of our glorious leader's mouth every time he opens it, doesnt kill you.
• War with Iran or possibly Pakistan, does start a thermonuclear war and kill us all.
• Nibriru knocking the world off its axis on dec 23rd 2012 does kill everyone.
• Invasion of the Eastern Europeans doesnt leave the UK destitute.
• The new labour government bankcrupting the country
• Rats now total 180 million. (3 rats for every person in the UK)

Cant a M'****a just make some money in peace. I mean really. When is all this going to end so we can get back to normality or is this the new normality.

We had all better ride this, until the wheels fall off. If things ever do return to some semblemce of normality, we could all make money in our sleep. I forgot, we already do, judging by the posters on here.

Night all.

 

[CatchFriday]

What concerns me most is that pharmacists, doctors and hospitals are not being stocked up with Tamiflu the main method of treatment Stocks are being held at a secret location(s) and will be distributed as and when required. In a pandemic situation I believe the supply chain will break down and courses of treatment may not reach sufferers within the day or two required to be effective.
There is the potential for disaster here - I believe we should be lobbying our MP's to address this situation and attempt to force distribution to a local level right now before the demand escalates.

This is nuts - conspiracy theory.

I wonder are there geeks on this forum? Programmers? Or introverts?

It was not so long ago that I was in the TA and wearing an NBC suit!

Beware of the A-bomb!

I thought it was interesting that when the lady in charge of the WHO spoke, her false teeth were rattling in her mouth!

I work in the NHS, and am a frontline nurse, doubtless if I pinch myself "I am still here"

 

[hughlss]

This is nuts - conspiracy theory.

I wonder are there geeks on this forum? Programmers? Or introverts?

It was not so long ago that I was in the TA and wearing an NBC suit!

Beware of the A-bomb!

I thought it was interesting that when the lady in charge of the WHO spoke, her false teeth were rattling in her mouth!

I work in the NHS, and am a frontline nurse, doubtless if I pinch myself "I am still here"

Catchfriday,
Not nuts at all. I'm a retired pharmacist so have some understanding of supply chains. At present if you developed 'flu-like symptoms there are no stocks of Tamiflu available from either pharmacist or GP. The government want to prevent stockpiling and maybe the chance of a black-market developing as well as the possibility of counterfeit products.
Pharmacists have been issued with an algorithm by the Health Protection Agency and which must be satisfied before a patient can be recommended for supply of the anti-viral.
It's not difficult to see that it could take up to 4 or 5 days before receiving medication -. That's too late to be effective and if the virus suddenly becomes more virulent then there could be a crisis.

I did say 'potential for disaster' - my own personal view is that it will come to nothing - possibly recurring in the following months (next winter maybe)
and my definition of disaster would be perhaps 10's or a few 100's or so people dying un-necessarily because of delayed medication. I didn't mean half the population being wiped out.

 

[CatchFriday]

Catchfriday,
I did say 'potential for disaster' - my own personal view is that it will come to nothing - possibly recurring in the following months (next winter maybe)
and my definition of disaster would be perhaps 10's or a few 100's or so people dying un-necessarily because of delayed medication. I didn't mean half the population being wiped out.

Yes well last year I know that the NHS prepared for an outbreak of flu and stocked up well-in-advance, and have had a lot of training in it.

If anyone is worried - a good preventative measure would be to take Vitamin C, and if your feeling down with a sore throat, take two vitamin C chewable every 4 - 6 hours and you should be able to prevent the infection.

Follow me on Twitter

 

[cjd]

If anyone is worried - a good preventative measure would be to take Vitamin C, and if your feeling down with a sore throat, take two vitamin C chewable every 4 - 6 hours and you should be able to prevent the infection.

I'm afraid that is total twaddle. Taking vitamin C will only help if you have a poor diet, excess doses are just flushed through - at best.

 

[usercart]

I'm afraid that is total twaddle. Taking vitamin C will only help if you have a poor diet, excess doses are just flushed through - at best.

I have to agree with "VOIPFONE". Taking supplements like vitamin C, do not help with soar throats etc if you already have a diet full of VIT C. Of course it will help you if you have little VIT C in your diet. As will boost your immune system.

Even a good immune systems are not going to have an easy time of the swine flu because of the animal proteins in the dna/rna sequences which our immune system wont recognise.

Thats why no body is talking about antibodies at the moment. Instead we are going down the vacine route.

I actually wouldnt mind this flu dissapearing and only the minimal number of people being infected or worse dying from it.

It is pointless anyone on here trying to predict just how severe this will be as it is impossible to know or speculate. I think we are as prepared (at least in the UK) as we going to be.

Keep tamiflu secret, out of the reach of GP's, Phamacies etc. Once people can get their hands on it easily they will take it and if not done correctly they would possibility build up the immunity of the swine flu to tamiflu. This would mean we have 60 million boxes of tablets that dont work and even possibly trading the winters supply of flu vacine too.

60 million is a huge number of medication, logistically we may need the army to distribute if this gets out of control and quarantine areas where tamiflu is administered.

I vote for the Isle of Man. We can all watch the TT races while safe in the knowledge we wont be infecting the entire country.

In return for the Manx hospitality, we will rescue them from the Icelandic banks, which has left a lot out of pocket.

I am standing for a Member of Parliment in the next Election, and will eventually become Prime Minister, then you will see how we get things done with Usercart.

 

[movietub]

To those saying 'put this in perspective' I would say it is in perspective.

This is nothing like any of the other pandemics or near pandemis reffered to in the is thread.

Avian flu did not jump easily from person to person and sars was contained succesfully and treated more easily with drugs.

The world will survive and the risk to an individuals health is low - thats fine so no need for drama, we are not all about to die.

But even the most conservative figures for how many people will be affected suggest massive disruption. Services we all require on a day to day basis will become extremely unreliable. I have yet to hear a well reasoned argument as to why this would not happen.

back in 1918 people did not stay at home despite the fear - they had to go to work to get paid. In these modern times employers have to put their staffs safety first - even if it means closing down a call centre or operations centre. Most of which run recirculated air these days which make them contagion hot spots.

If a significant % of the population refuse or are told not to go into work then its a bigger problem than the current recession becasue its just not possible to put the world on pause pending an effective vaccine.

 

[Dawg]

Your perception of what is or is not 'in perspective' is subjective, as is everyone else's.

The severity of the Mexican scare seems to be receding.

The FT's interactive map gives an idea of the global effect.

I believe there is no reason for the hysterical reactions in schools, by companies, (Nestles) or by Governments, (those masks are a symbol of ministerial incompetence rather than medical knowledge). Nor is there any reason that I can see to extrapolate to basic services shutting down, or even becoming unreliable.

I recomend Ben Goldacre's articles in Bad Science for a non hysterical view. (And, no, I'm not saying your response is hysterical. Calm down. )

 

[movietub]

I believe there is no reason for the hysterical reactions in schools, by companies, (Nestles) or by Governments, (those masks are a symbol of ministerial incompetence rather than medical knowledge). Nor is there any reason that I can see to extrapolate to basic services shutting down, or even becoming unreliable.

I recomend Ben Goldacre's articles in Bad Science for a non hysterical view. (And, no, I'm not saying your response is hysterical. Calm down. )

I'm calm

You say you see no reason why services should be disrupted. Is there any reason you can see that would stop this spreading and taking, say, 10% of us out of work for whatever reason? I would figure that 1% of the the UKs populous actually getting the flu (at whatever severity) would one way or another keep at least 10% at home.

I would feel totally different about the pending situation if there was a reason to believe it won't spread my sneezing/coughing/contact but it seems it does!

 

[Dawg]

I'm calm

I would figure that 1% of the the UKs populous actually getting the flu (at whatever severity) would one way or another keep at least 10% at home.

How do you arrive at either number?

Are 600,000 people going to get swine flu, and get it within the same time scale? How do you know? There are less than 10 at the moment; how will it suddenly leap to 600,000? Will they all be severe, or will the symptoms run a gamut from severe to very mild? Will it be clustered or evenly spread?
These will all affect how civil society copes.

Why would one sick person keep 10 others at home? Where is this figure from? Again, in what time scale will people stay at home? Who will choose? Will it be on employers' advice and/or people pulling sickies?

Merely 'figuring' is akin to keeping the pot of rumour, speculation and hysteria bubbling away, however unintentional.


BTW on an earlier post you suggested that business people were different to the population at large:

The majotity on this forum are here becasue they are independant thinkers and choose to live a life guided by their own decisions. People on here either do or aspire to run a business.

A huge % of the general public do not like to go their own direction and perfer the security of the pack and simply assume the people on TV are the experts and the sensible source of information and advice.

Isn't it possible that this is exceptionalism, and you are attributing qualities to a group you belong to that flatters that group? (American exceptionalism springs to mind). I'm not entirely convinced that 'businessmen/women' is homogenous enough a group to be exceptional, (in the sense I'm using here.) I'm not a fan of denigrating my client base really, and I feel that this is slightly derogatory to them.
Which means responses here will be as varied as elsewhere, and as valuable as any vox populi poll.

 

[movietub]

How do you arrive at either number?

Are 600,000 people going to get swine flu, and get it within the same time scale? How do you know? There are less than 10 at the moment; how will it suddenly leap to 600,000? Will they all be severe, or will the symptoms run a gamut from severe to very mild? Will it be clustered or evenly spread?
These will all affect how civil society copes.

Why would one sick person keep 10 others at home? Where is this figure from? Again, in what time scale will people stay at home? Who will choose? Will it be on employers' advice and/or people pulling sickies?

Merely 'figuring' is akin to keeping the pot of rumor, speculation and hysteria bubbling away, however unintentional.


BTW on an earlier post you suggested that business people were different to the population at large:


Isn't it possible that this is exceptionalism, and you are attributing qualities to a group you belong to that flatters that group? (American exceptionalism springs to mind). I'm not entirely convinced that 'businessmen/women' is homogenous enough a group to be exceptional, (in the sense I'm using here.) I'm not a fan of denigrating my client base really, and I feel that this is slightly derogatory to them.
Which means responses here will be as varied as elsewhere, and as valuable as any vox populi poll.

The 1% figure was an example of how much disruption could be caused even if the UK gets off extremely lightly.

In actual fact 13 cases are now confirmed here (8 yesterday) The Flu Pandemic leaflet itself (designed to stop hysteria if anything) contains the following:

HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT PANDEMIC FLU WILL SPREAD TO THE UK?
The World Health Organization is on constant lookout for the first signs of a pandemic emerging so steps can be taken to slow its spread or contain it. If a pandemic flu strain emerges overseas, it will almost certainly reach the UK. Once it arrives, it is likely to spread throughout the country in a matter of weeks.


----------------
Which is my point. There is no reason to assume it will not affect more than 1% of us directly - NHS official prediction is around 25%. The reason it will leap is that inevitable one person will get it and either not realise or not raise the alarm - once its outside of a controlled and monitored zone its totally uncontainable.

The 1% ill = 10% at home figure is fully hypothetical. Thats the point of this thread, to make informed guesses to be best prepared for what may happen. The 300 schools shut down in the US will already be keeping many thousand mums and dads home from work. If a person in a call center comes down with the flu and the next day another 9 people are identified then do you close the call center? There may be 200 people working there in total.

And yes I was generalizing in my previous post! There must surely be a higher concentration of independant thinkers inside the business world than outside of it. Thats not a negative or positive, more of a trait that forms part of any person decision to go it alone and create their own work.

 

[saracen]

You will know if you have Swine Flu, you will come out in "rashers" and i aint telling porkies !

 

[movietub]

You will know if you have Swine Flu, you will come out in "rashers" and i aint telling porkies !

You only have swine flu if when you sneeze it say 'achoink'. If you 'achoo' then its just a normal cold.

Thats really all the NHS leaflet needed to say I think.

 

[RLD Plastering and Tiling Services]

No need to worry, in the most reliable paper on the market at the moment it said that as we are due to have a hot summer this will stop the spread of swine flu and it's in winter that the real problems will start but by that time nobody will be suffering so no pandemic.
Now I'm not a meteoroligist (or weatherman if i spelt it wrong) but I thought Mexico had a warmer climate than us so what has the hot summer got to do with anything.