no credit crunch here

[Blush]

My sales have rocketed both online and in the shop! Maybe if the media talked more about businesses that are doing well consumers would have more confidence!
I did have one lady who rang me first just to check we were not going to go bust before ordering! I am pleased to say no fear of that We are doing really well with both sites, in fact I am extending the shop opening hours next week just to cope and we are having to go in on a sunday and in the evening to sort orders out,
If this is a recession i can't wait for when we hit the good times then

 

[Christiane]

too much hype in the media. I did over expectation in November.

 

[Bathead]

not everybody is going to suffer from the downturn so good on you, but it is fair to say that the true impact of what is currently happening is not going to be felt fully for a few more months yet.

 

[Real World Hypnotherapy]

I am starting to get worried by all of this now.

I keep hearing that the it is going to be a few months until things hit, but what exactly is going to happen?

Matt

 

[Gillie]

Oh I do like it when the media gets blamed for the credit crunch! Makes a change from greedy bankers!

So thats why Woolies and MFI have headed to the dogs or tell me that aint credit crunch related??

I am happy that some on here are doing well and long may it continue, myself I am run off my feet as people need cashflow ... but please please please, don't think it won't affect you, be prepared for it and plan accordingly!

 

[dave_n]

wise words gilly....it will hit.....just a matter of time i think

 

[Richie N]

I think it has hit a lot of sectors already, some are luckier than others but the worse is to come.....like Gill said be prepared for it and should be fine.

 

[Connexions]

Oh I do like it when the media gets blamed for the credit crunch! Makes a change from greedy bankers!

So thats why Woolies and MFI have headed to the dogs or tell me that aint credit crunch related??

I am happy that some on here are doing well and long may it continue, myself I am run off my feet as people need cashflow ... but please please please, don't think it won't affect you, be prepared for it and plan accordingly!

/agreed.

You just have to watch the local and national news, jobs going everywhere....some people ive spoke to believe it will last a year, others say it will be indefinate...like the 1930s and only the war changed things then.

 

[Real World Hypnotherapy]

Please can someone explain what "hit" actually means?

Matt

 

[Christiane]

I think there are a lot of conflicting info about. What's happening to some businesses now is not sudden, the ''credit crunch'' has just accelerated their demise. Some companies were in trouble before all this started.
Some businesses are using the excuse of the credit crunch to do what they would have done eventually, cutting jobs for efficiency sake.
I for one don't want to be pessimistic because I don't want to lose focus. I know similar businesses to mine have been hit. I haven't and my business is thriving.
I don't deny businesses have been hit, don't get me wrong, but positive stories are not hitting the headlines. And if we concentrate on the negative stories, we'll become one of the statistics.

 

[Matt1959]

many small businesses dont have a clue. Theres two next door to me. One is on his last job and has no more work after that and the other has totally run out of work and has two blokes with nothing to do - what are they doing about this? a big fat nothing as these are the sort of businesses who "wait until the phone rings" and if it doesnt they moan to hell and blame everyone else.

 

[cycloneuk]

Oh I do like it when the media gets blamed for the credit crunch! Makes a change from greedy bankers!

So thats why Woolies and MFI have headed to the dogs or tell me that aint credit crunch related??

I am happy that some on here are doing well and long may it continue, myself I am run off my feet as people need cashflow ... but please please please, don't think it won't affect you, be prepared for it and plan accordingly!

Woolworths and MFI both had problems way before this credit crunch, they would of both gone at some point regardless.

 

[MH1]

Simple fact is a recession has begun for a large part of the world, I think it will probably be as bad as anything most people have experienced before in their lifetime.

Many firms will go to the wall, not just because of being non profit making but poor cash flow. No-one knows how bad or how long this recession will last, but I bet the politicians will not admit to their fears.

Wait for six months of the tv news detailling the tens of thousands of job losses each week to see how low confidence will get, and how people will feel when there is 200 -400 applicants for advertised jobs.

Get your money in quick and be careful about how much credit you extend, even to regular clients.

 

[mobyme]

I am starting to get worried by all of this now.

I keep hearing that the it is going to be a few months until things hit, but what exactly is going to happen?

Matt

Not all printers are doing as well as you. A friend has been in the printing business for nearly thirty years. He is part of a franchise and is in a fairly central position in a University town. We spoke in late September and he told me that things were going well and he wasn't at all worried about what were then just ominous financial forecasts. Fast forward to yesterday and what a difference a couple of months make; he has not taken a decent sized order since a couple of days after we spoke in September. He has lost two of what were not only his largest accounts but also his most long standing. He is not a man who panics easily but he described his situation as one where he is standing watching virtually a lifetimes work falling to pieces around him and feeling helpless. He also told me that he rarely had an outstanding monthly account previously but that currently he is owed in excess of £30'000 which he just can't get in; even the University has delayed payment for the first time in thirty years. I think this downturn is going to be very different from anything we have known previously and I have a feeling in my water that nothing is ever going to be quite the same again.

 

[.Spiralling.]

We've seen an interesting upturn this Christmas. I think some businesses will suffer more than others and some will be hit earlier than others. I think we've done better than expected so far these last two months - and I think a lot of it is to with people cutting back on kids' Christmas presents.

We've never spent much tbh, but I think some people who are used to buying all the latest games platforms are realising they can't manage it this time - we've sold loads of drums and other musical instruments. I think for some families, it's going to be a cheaper, but much noisier Christmas!

We suffered earlier in the year, but things have picked up again. I'm sure we'll all be feeling the pinch after Christmas and, as Gillie said, should plan for it.

 

[Gillie]

Woolworths and MFI both had problems way before this credit crunch, they would of both gone at some point regardless.

Can I just remind people that the credit crunch is well over a year old ... and that the effects have been filtering through for as long as that!

One of the major problems is finance ... you know that thing I do for a living! Banks have changed their criteria for both consumers and businesses and readily available money is harder to find. Not impossible as there are many means of financing certain projects, but unless you are whiter than white you will find it harder the more grey you appear to banks. So yes various large companies such as MFI and Woolies have had problems for a while, but both were pushed quicker and also both found it nigh on impossible for rescue packages that would once have been given no issues.

I read that the old Ford plant on Halewood is having to shut for two months as people are not buying new cars, Cains Brewery in Liverpool has gone under as no one is heading to pubs anymore, rather staying home. All are examples of the credit crunch and I could find 100's more should I choose to.

The secret to survival, well there is no secret, look at your core business, work out if you can survive, work out if you can diversify and work out what would happen if your cashflow went on a go slow ... have you enough reserves to see you through that? Don't forget to market yourselves as well ... if your competitors are still doing it and you aint, guess who will win the business?

 

[deniser]

I think it is very important not to be too influenced by sales in November/December if you are in a business which by the nature of the products it sells, expects most of its sales in the Christmas period. It's a long time from January to the next Christmas and it is only after Christmas and depending on the nature of the product, after the January sales when one will really be able to tell.

 

[directmarketingadvice]

Someone (admagic?) started a thread a few weeks back which quoted a source suggesting that the banks are waiting until January before really pulling in the credit.

(i.e. they're giving businesses the festive period to generate some cash that will show they are viable - it's probably the same reason Woolies are still open: because this is the profitable time of the year, even for struggling businesses)

If that's the case - and no-one is saying this for sure - then we might start seeing things go really bad in mid-to-late January.

We'll have to wait and see.

(and hope for the best)

Steve

P.S. "we might start seeing things go really bad" - imagine saying that in a year where most of our major banks would have gone bust if they hadn't been bailed out by the taxpayer, where major shops that have existed for generations went bust and where unemployment has shot up.

 

[Chippie]

You just have to watch the local and national news, jobs going everywhere....some people ive spoke to believe it will last a year, others say it will be indefinate...like the 1930s and only the war changed things then.

OMG, get me the knife, I need to slit my wrists!! Shall we start a war then?? If that's your line of thinking then I hope you don't get what you're thinking about this Christmas. Talk about negative! Don't tell me you're just being a realist, because you're not, you're just negative.... plain and simple.

 

[Chippie]

I don't deny businesses have been hit, don't get me wrong, but positive stories are not hitting the headlines. And if we concentrate on the negative stories, we'll become one of the statistics.

Well said that man....... self fulfilling prophesies and all that!

 

[maria102]

I'm with Chippie on this, yes things are bad, but it is as though some people are loving the doom and gloom, the economic gloom-mongers.....

 

[telemax]

OMG, get me the knife, I need to slit my wrists!! Shall we start a war then?? If that's your line of thinking then I hope you don't get what you're thinking about this Christmas. Talk about negative! Don't tell me you're just being a realist, because you're not, you're just negative.... plain and simple.

Agreed. I was 18 when the last recession hit, and looking for a job. There were 3 million plus unemployed, and guess what I found one and kept it. It certainly was hard to find but the business I was working for stayed afloat during those times.

Interest rates were 15% but I still witnessed my friends business take 40k at the computer shopper show over 2 days in 1992, where I was helping out. I also knew someone who was buying up houses in the early 90's in his area, flats for 30k, and renting them out. Guess how wealthy he is now. Even if house prices fall 50% or 70% he won't have lost money. People thought he was crazy at the time because no one else was buying.

I agree things are bad and may stay that way for a while, but for me personally I am doing great, and it seems many others on here are too. Even in a recession certain sectors will always boom, just as some things will do appallingly in a boom (Think Rover going bust). Being negative doesn't do anyone anygood.

 

[Mattonella Tile Studio]

Economic gloom-mongers - love it

It seems like our little orders are slowing down, but the big orders are still coming through.

The EGM are gradually getting to me. I'd like to spend some money on the house. We've got the money to spend, interest rates are low, business is in better shape than this time last year. All the 'facts' say go ahead and spend it. But the cautionary side says what if, what if, what if. Net result, no spending has taken place yet.

My point, how many other people are in exactly the same boat? If we all went out and spent sensibly it would have a postive effect on the economy.

 

[oldeagleeye]

Come on now Gillie. Woolies and MFI have been going to the dogs for years now. That has nothing to do with the recession. In fact it is an absolute wonder they lasted this long and what amazes me is where have all these 30,000 employees been hiding.

There is a big store at Romford I have never seen more than 2 on the tills with about another half dozen swapping the DVD's around on the shelves or whatever. If there were and average of 10 in every store I doubt it. That's 8000. Where have the other 22,000 ben hiding.

As for this recession. We have the lowest interest rates for over 50 years. Mortgages are coming down. Food in the shops is getting cheaper and lets not forget all that money the government are borrowing at rock bottom rates. In fact for them it is almost an interest free loan saving us over 1,200. Billion on the rates we are used to in the long run and yet all the pundits are moaning.

The public are moaning. So OK the government is borrowing some 45% of GNP.. That is like a homeowner taking out a mortgage of less than half their salary yet they expect to be able to borrow 6 -8 times more than their salary.Do they see that as a crisis. No of course not.

The bottom line then is that this is not a recession. It is a shake out and one which could benefit us all enormously. There are already talks about nationalising the banks and that will lead to calls for energy to be under government control too. As for nationalization being a dirty word to some. Try incompetent bankers who like the energy and water companies too are only interested in paying homage to private shareholders. Cut them out and the share dealings and all our bills would be reduced by 50%.

Oh yea of little faith then. I suggest you all contact the OP and get some party clothes and have a good old jolly up and get ready to trade hard next year for when the President elect Obama makes that inaugural speech in Jan there will be a new optimism in the world. Halaluya.

 

[telemax]

Well said. Woolies and MFI hadn't changed the way they did business since the early 80's, thats why they failed.

 

[deniser]

I'd like to spend some money on the house. We've got the money to spend, interest rates are low, business is in better shape than this time last year. All the 'facts' say go ahead and spend it. But the cautionary side says what if, what if, what if. Net result, no spending has taken place yet.

My point, how many other people are in exactly the same boat? If we all went out and spent sensibly it would have a postive effect on the economy.

Well I'm going to because after New Year I am going to redecorate, put in 2 new bathrooms, retile the kitchen floor and walls, put in wooden floors and new carpet and buy completely new lighting and swanky designer furniture. I will go on a real splurge and don't care about the value of the property or what I spend because I am going to be staying put for many years. Can't wait!

 

[BeautyScientist]

Recessions don't 'hit'. They are more like dropping a stone into a small pond. The waves spread out and bounce around, sometimes bigger and sometimes smaller.

I know of a company that carried on growing through the last recession then nearly went bankrupt as things were getting better.

It is very hard to second guess what is going to happen next and how things will pan out.

 

[oldeagleeye]

I am not second guessing BT. I have lived through 2 major recessions. The first the 3 day week. No electricity for 18 hrs a day on many a day. Bodies puiling up at morturies. I was selling electric sewing machines at the time which you would think were pretty usless with no electric. My trade more than doubled. I have said this before. After the initial shock the public were almost joyous. There was a new sense of community then a snap general election and it was all over. The problems were still there. It was just that they were put into perspective.

The last recession in th 90's hit me hard personaly what with my being a mortgage broker but if all of us that were enjoying the extravant lifestyle before then has carried on we would be dead by now and gain it took very little time for the economy in general to recover. Despite as another poster said 15% interest rates and 3 million unemployed.

As for this so called recession compared to the others. It is nothing. All it is is 'book debt'. A piece of paper called an IOU that goes from the Bank of England to the IMF and I don't think we even have that. It is just paper shuffling between the government and B of E.

As for the medai. Expect an about face too from the pundits who will soon be saying that all the fundementals are in place for a boom - apart from house prices. They still have to fall to a level where at least a professional working couple can afford to get on the housing ladder. Rob

 

[Mortime Business Software]

Come on now Gillie. Woolies and MFI have been going to the dogs for years now. That has nothing to do with the recession.

I think she knows and understands that.

So yes various large companies such as MFI and Woolies have had problems for a while, but both were pushed quicker and also both found it nigh on impossible for rescue packages that would once have been given no issues.

What she is saying is that this recession has accelerated their demise, and put paid to any possibility of a rescue. That is, in more favourable economic conditions, there may have been a chance that they could have survived with some creative rescue plan.

Dave

 

[oldeagleeye]

I don't want to get into a debate Dave but if you remember Woolies have been saved twice before. There has been a viable business thre for the last 20 years. It was just a property portfolio and yes that will hamper the sell off but as for a rescue package even at the best of times. I certainly don't think so.

I certainly wasn't knocking Gillie either or her view. I just thought it was a bit sentimental but then we are talking about 99 years of history. Shame they didn't make the century. Rob

 

[estwig]

many small businesses dont have a clue. Theres two next door to me. One is on his last job and has no more work after that and the other has totally run out of work and has two blokes with nothing to do - what are they doing about this? a big fat nothing as these are the sort of businesses who "wait until the phone rings" and if it doesnt they moan to hell and blame everyone else.

I'm with Matt, I see too many tradesmen and small businesses sat on their bum moaning about having no work, do they do anything to find more work? No, they wait for the phone to ring.

Businesses like like this don't deserve to survive, apathy will cull the dead wood, leaving those of us with some inclination of what to do, a great opportunity.

 

[vvaannmmaann]

The guy plastering my house extension is busy until June next year,the guy who put the woodburner in is doing one a day for the next four months,the guy I rang to re-position the Sky dish can't come for four weeks.Need I go on?

 

[CKG]

One things for sure

The credit crunch has killed the tradesman gold rush.

It's on the way ack to the un-fasionable hard grind it used to be.

 

[Mortime Business Software]

I don't want to get into a debate Dave...

Okayyy...err...neither do I...but what you really seem to be saying is that you DO want to get into a debate, but you don't want me to respond!

I get this feeling because you continue to DEBATE the issue...

...but if you remember Woolies have been saved twice before. There has been a viable business thre for the last 20 years. It was just a property portfolio and yes that will hamper the sell off but as for a rescue package even at the best of times. I certainly don't think so.

If I might be allowed to say so, but without wanting to engage in a debate, Theo the dragon recently examined Woolies, but decided it wasn't worth the effort. How do you know that in more favourable conditions the Woolies brand name wouldn't have been worth it for him?

You don't have to answer that if you don't want to get into a debate.

In fact bollox to it, I didn't know anything about any of that shice you've just told me about because I'm not really interested, so I concede right now.

You've won the debate - you're the champ - all-right?

Dave

 

[oldeagleeye]

Surprised you quoted Theo Dave. He was an asset stripper - a dirty word in the old days and what do you mean worth it to him. Sack everbody and sell the property off where he gets 20% . Not impressed with the Theo argument then - and no I am not a smart - a--e as your reply indicated Dave. I am just a realist with a big ole eagle eye and the guy that turned down the offer of Northern Rock for a £1 in 1990. What's your track record.

 

[spigwell]

Strange how some of you folk think.

Being in denial of the recession is the most foolish thing you can do. Planning ahead for when it does finally hit you is the wise thing to do.
A lot of you are saying "we have never been busier, there is no recession the bloke down the pub is as busy as ever, etc etc", So are we to assume that the major high street retailers are only putting on these massive sales to make us all feel good this christmas? Is it all down to "kidology" and they are only giving these sales as a way of thanking all of us?
Some of the manufacturers who supply me diamond jewellery etc for my shop have reported sales down by as much as 70% within the industry, my sales are themselves down by some 63% compared to this time last year. The repair side of my business has risen by over 200% in the last 3 months, this is due to the fact that people are spending less and less on non essential or luxury items. Perhaps it is just people within this industry who are affected by the recession and the rest of the world have become influenced by us. If that is the case and the recession really does not exist then I humbly appologise to you all.
I hear there was a lot of flooding last night in certain areas, well we had none here so that probably means those affected are actually exagerating it as it was reported on the same news program that has been reporting this "so called" recession.

 

[maria102]

Is it about being in denial of a recession? or is it people getting rather tired of the economic gloomy "forecasts"....which is exactly what they are, nobody actually knows what will happen.

Yes, prepare yourself and your business, but surely wallowing in negativity will only be counter productive to it?

 

[Matt1959]

no one with half a brain can be in denial of the fact theres a recession, downturn call it what you will and being positive in the face of it all is the best way to be and could make the difference between survival and going out of business.

Interesting point about the trade no longer being the goldmine they once were (if they were at all!!) Hopefull these troubled times will weed out the amateurs and those in it for a quick buck and for that we should all be thankful

 

[Thorsun]

I've been saying to everyone that the effects of the problems are going to be wider felt than are necessary due to people listening to the media and panicking. A good business understands that times are sometimes going to be turbulent and if you plan for the down times you can actually turn it into great opportunities for your company. It was inevitable that housing prices were going to come back down and, just like the stock market, if you were unfortunate and/or uneducated enough to have bought while the prices were high, you're going to lose... unless you don't panic and just hold on until the prices go back up.

I'm not sure who to say was the dumber of the two - the people that took adjustable rate mortgages because it offered them a means to buy a house when they normally couldn't afford to, or the banks that gave people with low incomes those mortgages. "Gee, let me take this great interest rate that the bank can change at any time they feel like... but we trust the bank not to raise the rate. No, they'll never do anything mean like that." I guess I'd have to say the people were dumber because the banks are getting bailed out (although I'm sure that's not going to be the sweet deal for the banks that a lot of people think it is). Government involvement in your business is a BAD THING!

 

[Blush]

The point I was trying to make was really the media need to talk more about the good things.
I am not stupid I know only too well there is a recession.I am fortunate in that my main business is a specialised area with no seasons as such, Blushfashiosn is not actually my main business,except it is quiet in the summer school holidays for 6 weeks! We do savings clubs for locals which goes down really well, and we supply schools and dance schools in bulk.
i do not have debt on the business and don't give credit so cashflow is fine.I do not rely on the business for my main income either so I know I can go without taking a wage from it too.
I also did some training in the summer and I offer a specialised service that can only be offered by someone who is trained, and in the shop.I have customers travelling even from scotland now for fittings as my reuptation starts to spread.
In any business in order to succeed you need to recognise opportunities, be careful with your money, unerstand your customer and their needs and be able to predict what they will need and future trends and be adaptable to change, flexible and versatile.Something Woolies and MFI were not.Those that are not up to the mark will fail but those who stay with it will succeed.Also customers are more careful with their money and not wasting it . So I guess a lot of kids are getting dance shoes etc this christmas because they 'need' them.But kids who dance generally would love a new pair of dance shoes anyway as its their passion in life.I make sure everyone who walks in my shop is made to feel special from the two year old just starting to the old dear who wants a new pair of dancing shoes for the friday night dance.
Its all about finding your niche but never forgetting to stay one step ahead.So yes we are doing great, yes I know there is a very real recession, yes I have prepared and planned ahead, and NO I AM NOT GOING TO BE PESSIMISTIC about it all.