Chinese virus

[tony84]

I overheard someone in Tesco earlier asking staff for hand sanitiser as his boss has been in Northern Italy for a week to with his daughter as she is scared (understandably) and can’t go to work.

Apparently his boss is coming back to the country tomorrow and will be in work on Monday.

I thought this sounded very selfish (assuming the story was true) - surely he should be on his own at home for the next 14 days.

100% him and his daughter should be self isolating.

I would be saying if he comes in I am going home (maybe not worded quite like that though).

 

[Mr D]

100% him and his daughter should be self isolating.

I would be saying if he comes in I am going home (maybe not worded quite like that though).

You have yourself and your child to think of.
OK, child maybe not as affected by the virus. But affected if parent ill or dead.

 

[simon field]

Shedloads of people who just have similar symptoms, coughs, colds etc (or not) are gonna be swinging the lead on this one!

Then there’s the ones who’ll just soldier on & go to work, illness or no illness. Then there’s unscrupulous bosses pressuring people to come in.

 

[XombiCreative]

China/wuhan really did an amazing job handling the outbreak.

 

[Mr D]

China/wuhan really did an amazing job handling the outbreak.

You got a short summary?

 

[MBE2017]

The Australian National University predict 15 million to die from this virus in the best outcome scenario, and up to 68 million in a worst case scenario.

I’m opening the Southern Comfort tonite.

 

[XombiCreative]

You got a short summary?

It's just a short documentary showing how china reacted to the outbreak over the period of a month, it's footage of what the doctors/nurses/volunteers went through to help others with the virus.

 

[Mr D]

It's just a short documentary showing how china reacted to the outbreak over the period of a month, it's footage of what the doctors/nurses/volunteers went through to help others with the virus.

Thanks for that.

 

[Mr D]

There are more serious diseases and situations that leave more deaths.

True.
But not ones you are as likely to catch or be affected by.

New virus, possibly one that you can catch multiple times, possibly recurring annually across the world and very much impacting a bunch of people.

You may not be taking time off work soon. Perhaps your employer won't tell you to stay home for 2 weeks at a time on lower pay.
But others will.

 

[MOIC]

XombiCreative, post: 2990976, member: 302761"China/wuhan really did an amazing job handling the outbreak.

And they still are.

Wuhan City is still on lockdown as is much of Hubei as well as restriction in other towns and villages.

There is still a huge %, estimated at 30% (approx 200 million people) that have still to travel back to their work locations for one reason or another.

The documentary actually sanitised the real life events. it didn't include any harrowing scenes (which would not have been allowed for general viewing). The 'real life' situation was (and still continues to be) much worse in Wuhan City and much of Hubei province.

CGTN - Chine Global Television Network - The English speaking arm of their network, which also broadcasts in the UK with it's own UK presenters. This documentary was made and prepared by their USA broadcast centre.

China has it's knockers (and I'm one of them) but you have to say that what they have done with regards the lockdown of their cities, has prevented many more deaths, not only in China, but globally.

Whilst locking down cities is draconian (although ultimately required) and could never happen in any western cities, other measures that China has taken to contain and combat the virus has been completely ignored in some countries, especially UK.

That's a shame.

When figures rise, as they will, the NHS will be completely overwhelmed. They are simply not prepared for what will hit them.

 

[MOIC]

Here is an update for someone living in China from another site.


It has been almost a month since I last posted an update of what it is like here in China. So much has changed between then and now - clearly the pressing and urgent matter is the spread of the virus around the globe and the rate of increases of cases in multiple countries.

In Shanghai, the city is back to life this past week. It has slowly been coming back for the past 2 weeks or so, but this week is the first it has felt like daily activity is getting back to normal. Restaurants, stores, banks, offices - of which many had been closed for over a month are open once again. Traffic jams are back to a regular occurrence and many are walking the sidewalks where just a few weeks ago they were completely empty.

Over the last week, Shanghai has had only two newly confirmed cases, one of which was detected during a mandatory quarantine period in a traveler who arrived from Iran.

There is a lot of optimism that the worst is over, and hope that soon the city will be declared virus free. This is also the case in many other cities and provinces throughout China. Hubei province still suffers, but signs of improvement there are also encouraging.

As the virus spreads globally, I want to highlight the containment and prevention measures China has implemented, why they have worked, and why I believe countries around the world need to implement similar measures starting now.

In order for transmission to occur, the virus needs to come in contact with other humans. The first major measures China implemented were focused on social distancing and isolation. Areas where the virus was most prevalent were locked down, staring with Wuhan, expanding to Hubei province, and even to other cities with large pockets of the virus detected. In these lockdowns, people were not allowed to come into or leave these areas. Gatherings of people such as conventions, sporting events, movie theaters, gyms, etc. were immediately cancelled or closed. Offices and workplaces closed completely, the few restaurants that remained opened, only allowed take out food, no dining in. People were encouraged multiple times a day to stay home. The thing that amazed me as a westerner, was that everyone complied. The level of social distancing and isolation was extreme and necessary. Even today, as the city comes back to life this remains. Starbucks only allows one person per table so as to ensure people remain at a distance from one another.

The second measures put into place were focused on community transmission prevention. Encouragement to wash and disinfect hands regularly was plastered everywhere and was mentioned all over the news. In order to be outside at all it was necessary to be wearing a mask, to enter buildings, restaurants grocery stores, you were required to wear a mask and given hand sanitizer before entering. Buses, taxis, subways, Didi (Chinese Uber), all required masks to be worn. Public transit, transit stations, public restrooms were disinfected multiple times a day. In the elevators, boxes of tissues were placed for people to take one and use it as a cover to push buttons. Confined spaces often smelled of cleaning solution. My own apartment building came to disinfect my apartment unit during the height of cases in Shanghai. Everyone still wears masks, everyone still immediately washes their hands when they return home or uses disinfectant before eating.

Third major measures were focused on case discovery and treatment. Upon discovery of a confirmed case, quick and effective contact tracing measures were put into place. Public areas would take your name and phone number before allowing you to enter, in the event someone there later was determined positive, they could contact you and find you quickly. This moved digitally in QR code-based systems, were you would scan various locations, buses, taxis, subways, etc. and be able to be contacted and located quickly. To enter any public area, your temperature is taken. Residential communities issued passes for healthy residents when they would leave their homes, and would only be allowed back in by returning their pass and being checked for temperature again. Anyone found to be symptomatic was promptly taken to fever clinics, normally used for quick check-ups and prescriptions that had now become front line triage. At the fever clinic, you will be tested and examined. If it you are a suspected case you will be put under mandatory quarantine, this could be at a designated facility or at your home, if you are not immediately suspected you are asked to self-quarantine, in either case, your community (most are large apartment buildings or compounds of buildings) are informed of your status. This to let others know to be vigilant, and to ensure community helps with enforcement of quarantine and helps with providing supplies to those who are quarantined. If confirmed, usually within 24 hours of testing, patients are immediately transferred to one of two designated hospitals for COVID-19. Or the designated children's hospital for minors. (at least this is how it is in Shanghai). These measures are still in place today. It is almost impossible to leave your home without getting monitored by the entire community. If you show any signs of symptoms you will go in for testing and checkup, and your close contacts will be identified very quickly and also monitored.

Lastly, China implemented external controls to monitor and quarantine travellers both from other cities and provinces within China as well as from abroad.

In summary

1. Limit the potential exposure to the virus by keeping people away from each other
2. For the virus that is out there, disinfect rigorously, kill as much of the virus that is out in the community as possible to lessen the chance healthy people will contact the virus in the community. This includes individual efforts and community-based disinfection efforts.
3. Aggressively find potential cases and their contacts. Increase the already strict isolation controls on people confirmed, suspected, and potential contacts of those suspected or confirmed. Have a quick system
4. Limit movement of people to ensure clusters in one area don't become clusters in another area. Lockdown cities and communities, quarantine travellers.

These measures have worked. The proof is here. As said previously, what amazes me as a westerner was the willingness and the desire of the people to take these actions and take them seriously. Full scale adoption and compliance from the people. Absolutely incredible. And this is what it takes.

I hope the west can get it together. I hope they can take this seriously and act now. I hope the people will respond the way I have seen the Chinese people respond. China has also shown that early mistakes can be fixed if addressed and acted upon. Mistakes made now by countries recently impacted can still do what is necessary to stop the large scale spread.

I agree with the above post.

However you have to understand the make-up of the working population in the main cities and provinces.

Shanghai is mainly a financial city and a majority of the workers are involved in this sector as well as other non-manufacturing sectors.

For a barometer of factories returning to work, you have to look at provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian (to name a few), which rely in the main on manufacturing industries and a very large migrant working population. In these provinces, things are gradually getting back to normal, Guangdong is currently at about 70% 'normality'.

I don't believe current figures coning out of China and I think there is still potential for a secondary outbreak as soon as all the migrant workers return to work.

A final comment . . . . . . . .I have never seen the interior of China buildings so clean!

 

[CVRO]

Because it is not legally or practically enforceable.

How about the announcement from early February? Doesn't that give the government the powers to quarentine people against their will?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...public-health-protections-against-coronavirus

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update March 7th:


Official figures for those tested: An additional 3803 infected with the virus yesterday, taking the total tested and infected to 102188.


Total deaths yesterday alone were recorded at 108, taking the total deaths recorded to 3491.


China infections and death increases rising at lower rates daily. (Be sceptical). Factories still struggling to get 50% of workers back. Life has changed . . . . . for the time being.


Japan & S Korea ban each other's citizens (Their political spat has been going on for months). Both rely on each other for component parts. This will add to global economic woes. As if we didn't have enough problems!


Europe figures up by an average 30% from yesterday.


USA figures up by nearly 50%. Florida & California report deaths. Schools and campuses begin to close. Cruise ship off the coast of California starting to test all passengers, 21 infected so far. Trump allocating $4.8 billion to combat the virus using different measures.


UK 161 infected, 2 deaths. Figures will probably begin to spike in the next 2 weeks (if correct figures are given out). Let's hope the NHS are getting prepared. The fact that there have been zero checks at main points of entry into the UK, as well as all airlines allowed to arrive from known infected areas seems folly. When will those that can take action wake up? Can they see what's been going on in other countries? NHS Chief Medical Officer . . . .Epidemic (slim to nil that we won't get it) will last 12 weeks.


Economy first? Yes and understandable, but there has to be a balance.


Be well, stay safe and take precautions.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

To put it in perspective

In the USA the number of deaths caused by Pneumonia each year is 50,000

World wide 2.56 million deaths a year world wide from Pneumonia at a rate of 286 deaths per 100.000 people

UK over 75's deaths from Pneumonia is between 5 -10% of those who get it

Most deaths by corona 19 will be with Pneumonia on top of these figures

Me I am retired and happy I live in a small village with little need to visit places with lots of crowds

Good luck to you all

 

[Newchodge]

How about the announcement from early February? Doesn't that give the government the powers to quarentine people against their will?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...public-health-protections-against-coronavirus

That allows a public health consultant to detain a person they beleive .... May apply to those who should self-isolate, but I do not believe that detention is the same as self isolation and we do not have the facilities to detain everyone!

 

[Mr D]

That allows a public health consultant to detain a person they beleive .... May apply to those who should self-isolate, but I do not believe that detention is the same as self isolation and we do not have the facilities to detain everyone!

And if detained in your own home?

 

[Newchodge]

And if detained in your own home?

You cannot detain someone without supporting them. Otherwise they would starve.

 

[Mr D]

You cannot detain someone without supporting them. Otherwise they would starve.

Glad we agree they can be detained.

So there should be support.

People willing to drop off goods. Gosh, perhaps supermarkets should arrange a delivery service.
Oh wait, they already have one.

 

[MOIC]

Wuhan City with a population of 11 million have been 'detained' in their apartments for the past 6 weeks. Food is delivered to each building daily.

Other cities in Hubei province are experiencing similar conditions.

The government are supporting families throughout this period.

Not an ideal situation, but in order to contain the spread of this virus, the China government have found it necessary to take such drastic actions.

We will only know in the fullness of time, whether their actions were worthwhile.

Maybe it will be proven to have been futile.

 

[Erminoli]

The best way to avoid this virus is to avoid people. Interestingly enough, many companies in China, Japan, Germany etc. that had comparable strict policies on working remotely are now granting their employees the right to work from home in order to prevent the virus from spreading.

I'm curious to see what happens after the storm blew over. Will those hard-working people return to business as usual after tasting the sweet nectar of freedom? Maybe this Corona thing will have at least one positive outcome: A relaxation of employment laws.

 

[Mr D]

The best way to avoid this virus is to avoid people. Interestingly enough, many companies in China, Japan, Germany etc. that had comparable strict policies on working remotely are now granting their employees the right to work from home in order to prevent the virus from spreading.

I'm curious to see what happens after the storm blew over. Will those hard-working people return to business as usual after tasting the sweet nectar of freedom? Maybe this Corona thing will have at least one positive outcome: A relaxation of employment laws.

And some money back when you hand in the bottle.

We could be looking at increased productivity in some fields. Some people do produce more when not having to fight their way in to an office every day.

 

[Stedurham]

I worry for the older people who, maybe don't have much family local if any. They are sitting hearing it all over news and will be scared to go out. The government has to help these people

 

[XombiCreative]

"This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career. And that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS.

And it's frightening because of it's infectiousness, and a lethality that is manyfold higher than flu, as well as it's ability to cause serious disease and death.

We have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combines those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses, certainly Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases. Those viruses have a high mortality rate, Ebola is as high as 80%. But those viruses don't have the infectiousness that this virus has.

This virus has a potential to cause a global pandemic to the scale of the Spanish Flu. "

- Richard Hatchett, Public health executive with extensive governmental expertise and leadership experience in medical countermeasure development and public health emergency preparedness more generally. Served in the White Houses of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics."

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1235994748005085186

Full 20 min interview here:

 

[Mr D]

I worry for the older people who, maybe don't have much family local if any. They are sitting hearing it all over news and will be scared to go out. The government has to help these people

Or people help those people.

Neighbours or friends are better able to help than some faceless government department that takes weeks to pay benefits to people with no income.

 

[Mr D]

"This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career. And that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS.

And it's frightening because of it's infectiousness, and a lethality that is manyfold higher than flu, as well as it's ability to cause serious disease and death.

We have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combines those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses, certainly Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases. Those viruses have a high mortality rate, Ebola is as high as 80%. But those viruses don't have the infectiousness that this virus has.

This virus has a potential to cause a global pandemic to the scale of the Spanish Flu. "

- Richard Hatchett, Public health executive with extensive governmental expertise and leadership experience in medical countermeasure development and public health emergency preparedness more generally. Served in the White Houses of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics."

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1235994748005085186

Full 20 min interview here:

Is it me or does he look like Sheldon Cooper with glasses?

 

[Pot131]

US President Donald Trump has suggested he might have "a natural ability" in medical research

There seems to be no end to Mr Trump’s talents, maybe he will save us all!

 

[Mr D]

Some stats to date.

Italy - Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died
Iran - 1669 (92.01%) recovered 145 died (7.99%)
S Korea - 118 (71.08%) recovered 48 died (28.9%)
China - 55,521 (94.76%) recovered 3070 died (5.23%)

Worldwide - 58,625 (94.26%) recovered 3,567 died (5.73%)

Figures all over the place. But all bad.
Does beg the question of why more percentage wise die in Italy.

Diagnose the virus as you wish, these are based on official figures (so always suspect) who were diagnosed. Those not being diagnosed - we don't know they have flu, we don't know they have some other bug, we don't know they have anything.

 

[tony84]

I heard that the figures were higher in Italy because their population is generally quite old.

Still, higher than the 1-3% which has been quoted.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Throughout the world even villages and towns they don't all have the same medical care, even the great UK hospitals have some great hospitals and some low standard ones

Some countries can react quickly to problems others get bogged down in government

Some may also be already dying before catching the virus

Discussing what percentage is correct is simply not possible there are far to many variables and two few deaths to be accurate on mathematical solutions

 

[Forgot password]

85% of discussions on this are from Chris Ashdown Mr D and My office in China.

Unfortunately no fatalities as yet.

 

[tony84]

This site seems quite accurate (if correct)...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases, the death rate appears to be around 6%.
Chances of it getting quite serious appears to be around 14%.

 

[Mr D]

I heard that the figures were higher in Italy because their population is generally quite old.

Still, higher than the 1-3% which has been quoted.

Yes - perhaps better medical care across the country translates to higher number of likely to die simply because in poorer medical care countries they would have died prior to the virus.
Or perhaps there's something in the local medical care - something done or not done.

Be interesting to see in a few years.

 

[Mr D]

Throughout the world even villages and towns they don't all have the same medical care, even the great UK hospitals have some great hospitals and some low standard ones

Some countries can react quickly to problems others get bogged down in government

Some may also be already dying before catching the virus

Discussing what percentage is correct is simply not possible there are far to many variables and two few deaths to be accurate on mathematical solutions

Is 50,000 plus a big enough sample? Or would a million sample be better?

Not sure how a percentage is incorrect - though of course depends on using correct input.
And to be honest, testing for the virus. Places that cannot test enough people for it because they have run out of test kits won't be able to report any more infected by that method of diagnosis.

 

[Newchodge]

Glad we agree they can be detained.

So there should be support.

People willing to drop off goods. Gosh, perhaps supermarkets should arrange a delivery service.
Oh wait, they already have one.

Detain, prevent from leaving, either by locking the door or posting a guard.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

85% of discussions on this are from Chris Ashdown Mr D and My office in China.

Unfortunately no fatalities as yet.

Is my ignored member Mr D still wasting every ones time with pointless posts?

 

[The Byre]

Is my ignored member Mr D still wasting every ones time with pointless posts?

Hey - come on! Lighten up! It's his full-time occupation!

Mr. D reminds me of those hens that go into a frenzy of clucking when the farmer's wife farts.

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update March 8th:


Official figures for those tested: An additional 3977 infected with the virus yesterday, taking the total tested and infected to 106165.


Total deaths yesterday alone were recorded at 103, taking the total deaths recorded to 3594.


This will be my last 'Coronavirus Update' as I feel that the emphasis now is no longer on China figures, factories and economy, but rather on European figures and economy which you will have news at first hand.


China: As usual, the narrative from the Beijing government is figures down, 'imported' (travelers coming from outside of China) figures up and everything is back to normal in China. I simply do not believe their figures anymore, since the Wuhan government leaders were sacked a few weeks back for 'giving out false information'. The Beijing news conferences are cold (much like the Chinese) and zero emotion (again, much like the Chinese) with 'economy damage limitations' at the forefront of their figures, news and agenda. Those that understand China may be sceptical. I'm expecting a secondary outbreak when all migrant workers return (still no sign of that happening - 200 million still restricted), but doubt that we will get any figures if this happens. (Let's prey and hope that it doesn't). The medical staff cannot be faulted and my heart and respect goes out to all of them.


Europe: All countries with increased figures. Italy (the most proactive in containing this virus) lockdowns the whole of Lombardy, including Milan. A brave decision. UK still dithering between phases. A total joke. Let's hope tomorrow's Cobra meeting leads to some proactive action.


USA: Figures of infected and deaths up. Cruise ship docked at Oakland has infected, also has British passengers on board. Trump now taking it seriously. This could (very possible) affect the election result, based on how he is seen to be tackling this situation.


UK: Numbers up and still not screening at airports. The more infections and deaths that are recorded in the UK, the bigger impact this will have on the economy and the longer it will take to recover. Being complacent at this stage will not help the situation.


The virus doesn't just infect Chinese, S Koreans, Italians . . . . . . .Life in UK will change for the next 6 months.


The model in China where sons and daughters look after their parents, could probably be useful to follow in Western countries (where there is much talk about 'who will look after the elderly'). It's a general comment and not the solution for some, but will help in the current situation.


Be well and stay safe.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

UK: Numbers up and still not screening at airports. The more infections and deaths that are recorded in the UK, the bigger impact this will have on the economy and the longer it will take to recover. Being complacent at this stage will not help the situation.

Reporting of infection locations very patchy. Cornwall are not releasing locations of towns due to "patient confidentiality" How does Penzance or Truro as a location affect the patient. How am I allowed to know the location next door in Devon or France but not in my own county?

Competance has never been high in Cornwall.

 

[MOIC]

@atmosbob

Did I read in some other threads that you have connections to Northern Italy?

What's your view?

 

[Newchodge]

It is strange that Italy, (the most proactive in containing the virus) has the biggest outbreak, the highest mortality rate and the highest fatalities in Europe.