Chinese virus

[Mr D]

You cannot detain someone without supporting them. Otherwise they would starve.

Glad we agree they can be detained.

So there should be support.

People willing to drop off goods. Gosh, perhaps supermarkets should arrange a delivery service.
Oh wait, they already have one.

 

[MOIC]

Wuhan City with a population of 11 million have been 'detained' in their apartments for the past 6 weeks. Food is delivered to each building daily.

Other cities in Hubei province are experiencing similar conditions.

The government are supporting families throughout this period.

Not an ideal situation, but in order to contain the spread of this virus, the China government have found it necessary to take such drastic actions.

We will only know in the fullness of time, whether their actions were worthwhile.

Maybe it will be proven to have been futile.

 

[Erminoli]

The best way to avoid this virus is to avoid people. Interestingly enough, many companies in China, Japan, Germany etc. that had comparable strict policies on working remotely are now granting their employees the right to work from home in order to prevent the virus from spreading.

I'm curious to see what happens after the storm blew over. Will those hard-working people return to business as usual after tasting the sweet nectar of freedom? Maybe this Corona thing will have at least one positive outcome: A relaxation of employment laws.

 

[Mr D]

The best way to avoid this virus is to avoid people. Interestingly enough, many companies in China, Japan, Germany etc. that had comparable strict policies on working remotely are now granting their employees the right to work from home in order to prevent the virus from spreading.

I'm curious to see what happens after the storm blew over. Will those hard-working people return to business as usual after tasting the sweet nectar of freedom? Maybe this Corona thing will have at least one positive outcome: A relaxation of employment laws.

And some money back when you hand in the bottle.

We could be looking at increased productivity in some fields. Some people do produce more when not having to fight their way in to an office every day.

 

[Stedurham]

I worry for the older people who, maybe don't have much family local if any. They are sitting hearing it all over news and will be scared to go out. The government has to help these people

 

[Mr D]

I worry for the older people who, maybe don't have much family local if any. They are sitting hearing it all over news and will be scared to go out. The government has to help these people

Or people help those people.

Neighbours or friends are better able to help than some faceless government department that takes weeks to pay benefits to people with no income.

 

[Mr D]

"This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career. And that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS.

And it's frightening because of it's infectiousness, and a lethality that is manyfold higher than flu, as well as it's ability to cause serious disease and death.

We have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combines those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses, certainly Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases. Those viruses have a high mortality rate, Ebola is as high as 80%. But those viruses don't have the infectiousness that this virus has.

This virus has a potential to cause a global pandemic to the scale of the Spanish Flu. "

- Richard Hatchett, Public health executive with extensive governmental expertise and leadership experience in medical countermeasure development and public health emergency preparedness more generally. Served in the White Houses of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics."

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1235994748005085186

Full 20 min interview here:

Is it me or does he look like Sheldon Cooper with glasses?

 

[Pot131]

US President Donald Trump has suggested he might have "a natural ability" in medical research

There seems to be no end to Mr Trump’s talents, maybe he will save us all!

 

[Mr D]

Some stats to date.

Italy - Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died
Iran - 1669 (92.01%) recovered 145 died (7.99%)
S Korea - 118 (71.08%) recovered 48 died (28.9%)
China - 55,521 (94.76%) recovered 3070 died (5.23%)

Worldwide - 58,625 (94.26%) recovered 3,567 died (5.73%)

Figures all over the place. But all bad.
Does beg the question of why more percentage wise die in Italy.

Diagnose the virus as you wish, these are based on official figures (so always suspect) who were diagnosed. Those not being diagnosed - we don't know they have flu, we don't know they have some other bug, we don't know they have anything.

 

[tony84]

I heard that the figures were higher in Italy because their population is generally quite old.

Still, higher than the 1-3% which has been quoted.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Throughout the world even villages and towns they don't all have the same medical care, even the great UK hospitals have some great hospitals and some low standard ones

Some countries can react quickly to problems others get bogged down in government

Some may also be already dying before catching the virus

Discussing what percentage is correct is simply not possible there are far to many variables and two few deaths to be accurate on mathematical solutions

 

[Forgot password]

85% of discussions on this are from Chris Ashdown Mr D and My office in China.

Unfortunately no fatalities as yet.

 

[tony84]

This site seems quite accurate (if correct)...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Closed cases, the death rate appears to be around 6%.
Chances of it getting quite serious appears to be around 14%.

 

[Mr D]

I heard that the figures were higher in Italy because their population is generally quite old.

Still, higher than the 1-3% which has been quoted.

Yes - perhaps better medical care across the country translates to higher number of likely to die simply because in poorer medical care countries they would have died prior to the virus.
Or perhaps there's something in the local medical care - something done or not done.

Be interesting to see in a few years.

 

[Mr D]

Throughout the world even villages and towns they don't all have the same medical care, even the great UK hospitals have some great hospitals and some low standard ones

Some countries can react quickly to problems others get bogged down in government

Some may also be already dying before catching the virus

Discussing what percentage is correct is simply not possible there are far to many variables and two few deaths to be accurate on mathematical solutions

Is 50,000 plus a big enough sample? Or would a million sample be better?

Not sure how a percentage is incorrect - though of course depends on using correct input.
And to be honest, testing for the virus. Places that cannot test enough people for it because they have run out of test kits won't be able to report any more infected by that method of diagnosis.

 

[Newchodge]

Glad we agree they can be detained.

So there should be support.

People willing to drop off goods. Gosh, perhaps supermarkets should arrange a delivery service.
Oh wait, they already have one.

Detain, prevent from leaving, either by locking the door or posting a guard.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

85% of discussions on this are from Chris Ashdown Mr D and My office in China.

Unfortunately no fatalities as yet.

Is my ignored member Mr D still wasting every ones time with pointless posts?

 

[The Byre]

Is my ignored member Mr D still wasting every ones time with pointless posts?

Hey - come on! Lighten up! It's his full-time occupation!

Mr. D reminds me of those hens that go into a frenzy of clucking when the farmer's wife farts.

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update March 8th:


Official figures for those tested: An additional 3977 infected with the virus yesterday, taking the total tested and infected to 106165.


Total deaths yesterday alone were recorded at 103, taking the total deaths recorded to 3594.


This will be my last 'Coronavirus Update' as I feel that the emphasis now is no longer on China figures, factories and economy, but rather on European figures and economy which you will have news at first hand.


China: As usual, the narrative from the Beijing government is figures down, 'imported' (travelers coming from outside of China) figures up and everything is back to normal in China. I simply do not believe their figures anymore, since the Wuhan government leaders were sacked a few weeks back for 'giving out false information'. The Beijing news conferences are cold (much like the Chinese) and zero emotion (again, much like the Chinese) with 'economy damage limitations' at the forefront of their figures, news and agenda. Those that understand China may be sceptical. I'm expecting a secondary outbreak when all migrant workers return (still no sign of that happening - 200 million still restricted), but doubt that we will get any figures if this happens. (Let's prey and hope that it doesn't). The medical staff cannot be faulted and my heart and respect goes out to all of them.


Europe: All countries with increased figures. Italy (the most proactive in containing this virus) lockdowns the whole of Lombardy, including Milan. A brave decision. UK still dithering between phases. A total joke. Let's hope tomorrow's Cobra meeting leads to some proactive action.


USA: Figures of infected and deaths up. Cruise ship docked at Oakland has infected, also has British passengers on board. Trump now taking it seriously. This could (very possible) affect the election result, based on how he is seen to be tackling this situation.


UK: Numbers up and still not screening at airports. The more infections and deaths that are recorded in the UK, the bigger impact this will have on the economy and the longer it will take to recover. Being complacent at this stage will not help the situation.


The virus doesn't just infect Chinese, S Koreans, Italians . . . . . . .Life in UK will change for the next 6 months.


The model in China where sons and daughters look after their parents, could probably be useful to follow in Western countries (where there is much talk about 'who will look after the elderly'). It's a general comment and not the solution for some, but will help in the current situation.


Be well and stay safe.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

UK: Numbers up and still not screening at airports. The more infections and deaths that are recorded in the UK, the bigger impact this will have on the economy and the longer it will take to recover. Being complacent at this stage will not help the situation.

Reporting of infection locations very patchy. Cornwall are not releasing locations of towns due to "patient confidentiality" How does Penzance or Truro as a location affect the patient. How am I allowed to know the location next door in Devon or France but not in my own county?

Competance has never been high in Cornwall.

 

[MOIC]

@atmosbob

Did I read in some other threads that you have connections to Northern Italy?

What's your view?

 

[Newchodge]

It is strange that Italy, (the most proactive in containing the virus) has the biggest outbreak, the highest mortality rate and the highest fatalities in Europe.

 

[MOIC]

Are you suggesting that by being proactive they have added to the increase in numbers of infections and deaths?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

@atmosbob

Did I read in some other threads that you have connections to Northern Italy?

What's your view?

I no longer use suppliers in Italy. My old company does but they are more affected by exchange rates than the virus. Printing is shipped out in a package on CD, comes back on multiple pallets. They now have a printer in Cornwall that do quicker turnaround but more expensive. A big problem on price is that our specified paper is more expensive in the UK than Italy because the Finnish mill go through a UK merchant.

 

[simon field]

Are you suggesting that by being proactive they have added to the increase in numbers of infections and deaths?

Is there not a possibility that in preventing people from going out & about in the fresh air they have unwittingly crammed people together allowing the virus to easily spread from person to person?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

It is strange that Italy, (the most proactive in containing the virus) has the biggest outbreak, the highest mortality rate and the highest fatalities in Europe.

I think we will find when the dust settles that there are social factors in each country which affect outcomes.

 

[MOIC]

I no longer use suppliers in Italy. My old company does but they are more affected by exchange rates than the virus. Printing is shipped out in a package on CD, comes back on multiple pallets. They now have a printer in Cornwall that do quicker turnaround but more expensive. A big problem on price is that our specified paper is more expensive in the UK than Italy because the Finnish mill go through a UK merchant.

I didn't mean from a business perspective. I meant the situation that the virus has caused Lombardy to be on total lockdown. Scaremongering by the Italians?

 

[Newchodge]

Are you suggesting that by being proactive they have added to the increase in numbers of infections and deaths?

I am not suggesting cause and effect, just noticing 2 points.

 

[MOIC]

Is there not a possibility that in preventing people from going out & about in the fresh air they have unwittingly crammed people together allowing the virus to easily spread from person to person?

No. Thats the reason the China authorities did what they did, when they did. This was also agreed with by all the 'experts' from W.H.O who were in China last month to investigate the spread of the virus.

What I don't understand is, why isn't the UK government listening to what W.H.O have advised, after getting first hand information from China from the 'coalface'?

 

[Newchodge]

Is there not a possibility that in preventing people from going out & about in the fresh air they have unwittingly crammed people together allowing the virus to easily spread from person to person?

That has to be a possibility. What I find interesting is that there do not (in the UK at least) appear to be familial clusters. If the disease is as catching as the medical evidence suggests you would expect every member of the household to be infected if 1 person is, but that does not seem to be happening. Even among the large percentage of those with the virus in the UK who are being treated at home.

 

[Newchodge]

What I don't understand is, why isn't the UK government listening to what W.H.O have advised, after getting first hand information from China from the 'coalface'?

And why, as a result of their failure, there aren't much higher numbers here.

 

[MOIC]

I am not suggesting cause and effect, just noticing 2 points.

If I was to hazard a guess, it would be that Italian companies with 'factories' in China send their technicians and engineers there to oversee production on a regular basis. Italians will not live in China (They cannot get on with the food or culture) so frequently travel to and from China. Just a guess.

 

[MOIC]

And why, as a result of their failure, there aren't much higher numbers here.

1. Accurate figures probably not being given out. (To protect the economy).

2. Ask me this question in 2 weeks time.

 

[MBE2017]

Decided letting my wife order in toilet rolls was a bad idea.

 

[OMGVape]

If the disease is as catching as the medical evidence suggests you would expect every member of the household to be infected if 1 person is, but that does not seem to be happening.

How do you know this is the case?

 

[Mr D]

Hey - come on! Lighten up! It's his full-time occupation!

Mr. D reminds me of those hens that go into a frenzy of clucking when the farmer's wife farts.

Never come across those hens.
Local to your area?

 

[Mr D]

It is strange that Italy, (the most proactive in containing the virus) has the biggest outbreak, the highest mortality rate and the highest fatalities in Europe.

The most proactive?
Missed that one. Was under the impression they were like us, waiting for people to turn up sick.
Later on they changed their methods. However as this virus has a period of not showing symptoms but being infectious there are plenty who were spreading it before locking down areas.


The mortality rate may well be due to the differences in healthcare.
Haven't heard that Italian healthcare is that much different than British. We will find out soon enough.

 

[Newchodge]

How do you know this is the case?

Good point. Based on the lack of it being reported and some anecdotal evidence, including the family of the second person to die stating that they could not arrange the funeral as they were in isolation for 14 days.

EDIT: Plus if you look at these figures (which are apparently from yesterday) there are few multiple cases in the same local authority area.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

 

[Mr D]

That has to be a possibility. What I find interesting is that there do not (in the UK at least) appear to be familial clusters. If the disease is as catching as the medical evidence suggests you would expect every member of the household to be infected if 1 person is, but that does not seem to be happening. Even among the large percentage of those with the virus in the UK who are being treated at home.

There will be familial clusters.
Fast forward a time period after infection, until the person with the virus becomes infectious there won't be much happening. Then once they are, figure a couple of weeks to become positive for the virus.
The baseline 3 weeks ago was how many infected? Some of whom wouldn't be living with family presumably?

 

[Mr D]

Good point. Based on the lack of it being reported and some anecdotal evidence, including the family of the second person to die stating that they could not arrange the funeral as they were in isolation for 14 days.

EDIT: Plus if you look at these figures (which are apparently from yesterday) there are few multiple cases in the same local authority area.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

Will there be multiple cases in the same local authority area in say 2 or 3 weeks?
Go back and examine the areas then.