Chinese virus

[Mr D]

Mask wearing, by those already infected, may help limit the spread. Mask wearing by those uninfected is likely to aid spread as the virus can sit on the mask, which becomes moistened by breath and concentrates the virus making it more likely that an uninfected mask wearer will become infected.

That explains why the medical staff so often wear masks.
Wanting to keep their own germs to themselves.

Reality is it also encourages you not to touch your own face using hands that are far, far more likely to pick up stuff harmful to you from surfaces and other people.

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update 6th February:


The trajectory continues in an upwardly direction with an increased daily total of fatalities.


It's important to note that figures are those being released from the authorities. They are fully aware of the repercussions if there is huge daily growth in numbers of infections and fatalities. The fact that they have built 2 new hospitals as well as converting large municipal building's into temporary accommodation tells you that they expect the rate to grow over the near future. The army have moved in to help medical staff and adjacent cities and provinces have sent medical personnel.


There continues to be road transport and general travel restrictions throughout China. Leaving some local towns needs authorisation (not easy to obtain) and when received you cannot return for several days.


Canton fair has been cancelled!


The main Hong Kong fairs in April are yet to be cancelled, but this is now an inevitability. Expect news of these being cancelled within the next few days.


Hong Kong have announced 14 day quarantine periods for all people (foreigners included) arriving from mainland China from 8th February. I'm not sure what facilities they have ready and how they are going to manage that at short notice. I can see that they will ban all transport from mainland China and that will have it's own problems, not least to the (already battered) Hong Kong economy. I can see other countries following Hong Kong's quarantine requirements.


Generally, the situation is getting worse and is impacting all people in China, not just in Wuhan and Hebei Province.


I cannot see how factories will be allowed to return to work on 10th February. I am sure this will be extended, or at the very least severely restricted, which will mean no real production coming out of factories for some time.


For those who are relying on orders to be produced and sent out in the next 3 - 6 weeks, will be disappointed.


The vast majority of factories will have emptied all their component stocks prior to closing for CNY holidays and the supply chain replenishment will take time, after they are allowed to get back to work.


Masks are no longer available in all the major cities. All masks manufacturers are being told (ordered) to send to Wuhan & Hebei Province. The public have been told not to wear the medical masks (N95) as these have to be 'left' for the medical staff and workers in Wuhan and Hebei Province.


Things are becoming surreal and are likely to get worse in the next 2 weeks. There is fear and panic within the general China public. (I'm not overestimating this point)

 

[MBE2017]

I hope things improve, the Chinese have so much to contend with already, normally natural disasters, they are a tough hardy race, admire them very much.

According to the daily mail in the UK today.... “Tencent, the second largest company in China, allegedly listed figures for the coronavirus on Saturday showing 154,023 were infected and 24,589 dead - more than ten times and 80 times the official figures respectively. ”

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

so are the measures undertaken by China so far not reducing the number of new infections? is the 'curve' rounding off so to speak? or are we just going up on the diagonal? It's worrying if the measures being implemented are not really working.

 

[Mr D]

I hope things improve, the Chinese have so much to contend with already, normally natural disasters, they are a tough hardy race, admire them very much.

According to the daily mail in the UK today.... “Tencent, the second largest company in China, allegedly listed figures for the coronavirus on Saturday showing 154,023 were infected and 24,589 dead - more than ten times and 80 times the official figures respectively. ”

Though you also have to consider the media - claiming lots more dead and a much higher death rate suits their purposes.
If they can cause a panic then even better from their point of view. Telling the truth does not feature on their radar though they will sometimes inadvertently do so.

That death figure by the way is not too far from the annual death rate from flu here with a much smaller population. Which does not excite media comment so much.

 

[Mr D]

so are the measures undertaken by China so far not reducing the number of new infections? is the 'curve' rounding off so to speak? or are we just going up on the diagonal? Kinda worrying if the measures being implemented are not really working.

The measures they have taken should limit the number officially. Trouble is people will decide stuff for themselves and move around / meet up / buy food etc.
One infected passing through a village can infect the entire village. Then someone from the village goes to market in nearby city - which does not have quarantine - and spreads the infection around.

Leakers. Always leakers.

The virus will eventually burn itself out - natural immunes, ex infected, whatever. May even have a vaccine distributed worldwide by Christmas.

 

[MBE2017]

The website was corrected within a few minutes, doubt any media in China would go against the Gov there. The question is whether it is a false report, or the uncovered truth. A mortality rate of 1 in 7 sounds very high to myself.

Hopefully the report is false.

 

[Lilysun]

This topic is already reaching madness. A virus in the package, really? People around the world are already afraid of everything about China. Have you heard about bananas infected with coronavirus from Thailand? And such rumors are circulating. The other day I received 3 parcels with aliexpress and is alive and well.

 

[OMGVape]

My girlfriend lives in Hebei province and told me today that people have been given set times when they can go outside, two hours in morning, mid day and early evening and will not be going back to work next week.

Spring time is peak sales for my business and I will run out of stock around May. I have little doubt my next container will arrive on time so I’m working on planB, slowly increase prices to a) slow sales and b) build up cash to live on until things get back to normal, this way if I do get my stick in time I can then have a ‘sale’. My main worry at the moment is if my website stops selling then my healthy google ranking will go down the tubes.

 

[Mr D]

This topic is already reaching madness. A virus in the package, really? People around the world are already afraid of everything about China. Have you heard about bananas infected with coronavirus from Thailand? And such rumors are circulating. The other day I received 3 parcels with aliexpress and is alive and well.

How long does any virus survive on a surface when not exposed to sunlight?

https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-qu...o-bacteria-and-viruses-live-outside-the-body/

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update 7th February:


Where to start . . . . . . . .


Another 2752 patients tested positive yesterday to take the total tested and infected to 30830.
71 deaths recorded yesterday to take the total fatalities to 635.


It's important to note that the total infected are only based on actual patients tested. There is a large shortage of testing equipment, so you can make your own assumptions of the exact number of people who are infected with this virus.


Medical personnel from all over China are now being sent to Wuhan. it's being reported that doctors there are overwhelmed by the amount of new cases.


15 municipal buildings and public venues including convention centers, gymnasiums and large halls are being converted to temporary 'hospitals' to treat patients categorised with 'low level' symptoms. These will hold approximately 15,000 beds. Those with advanced symptoms are being treated in the 2 new hospitals (built from scratch within 9 days!). Guidelines have been issued that those who are showing early symptoms to self isolate at home.


Wuhan has a population of 11 million (more than London!). I cannot imagine London being able to cope with this kind of epidemic. It would take 9 days to arrange a meeting, let alone building 2 hospitals from scratch!


There are now restrictions being sent out to many parts of China. Only 1 member of each household is allowed to go out for shopping and daily needs once every 2 days, they must return within 2 hours.


People are not allowed to leave towns and provinces, unless they have a police permit. There is now a total monitoring of people's movements.


People moving from city to city must register online ('Health Registration') with the local municipality and if they have had any contact with people from Hebei Province must self quarantine for 14 days.


Everybody in China must wear masks if traveling on public transport, but there are no masks of any description currently available for sale in the main cities. Measures being taken for reducing the threat of contamination whilst traveling on trains is to leave empty seats between passengers, this will be applied when booking train tickets with only 50% of seats available to be sold (not sure how effective that will be).


Any person caught selling masks at inflated prices (as has been the case in the past 2 weeks) will be heavily fined.


Apart from the lack of testing equipment in Wuhan, there is a lack of medical masks throughout China and the ban on flights arriving into China means supplies from outside of China cannot arrive.


Honk Kong airlines has cancelled flights coming in from mainland China and there are a growing number of international airlines postponing flights to and from China. This will grow.


Given the timing of the travel ban, there were millions (literally) of Chinese that went for holidays abroad for their CNY holidays. Only a fraction have returned due to airline cancellations. 180 planes are on stand-by to get them home. It's unsure whether there will be any quarantine requirements as a proportion would have come from the infected province.


The number of infected outside of China in different countries seems to resemble (mainly) the most frequented countries favoured by Chinese during the CNY holidays.


The 'migration' of workers getting back to their work locations has been severely hampered due to the travel restrictions and this is likely to continue for the next 2 weeks at least. It is estimated that only 20% have returned so far.


Factory sales staff have been told to work online from home, but there will be no production taking place without production line workers, or supply chain components being ready.


While factories have been told to start production from 10th February (delayed from 3rd February), I cannot see this happening. It will take a minimum of 14 days for factories to get their full working staff in and will be reliant on their supply chain for components.


Yesterday I suggested that products will be in short supply for 3-6 weeks. I now estimate this to be 3-4 months, allowing for production time as well as shipping.


Factories are offering 'stock' which they have as a desperate measure. These stocks may not be suitable for all, as may have been manufactured for specific countries with different QC standards and certification. It's very rare for a factory to hold stock as it's the norm for factories to manufacture to order, unless they are selling their products directly on Amazon etc.


The local government has introduced aid to local businesses including postponement of taxes, low loan interest rates, national insurance rebates as well as other monetary help.


I expect many factories to go bankrupt.


Global production will also be affected, as many factories around the world rely on component parts manufactured and coming from China.


Global Sources & HKTDC have yet to officially confirm that the April fairs in Hong Kong will be cancelled. This is only a matter of time.


China is doing what it can and this cannot be expressed enough. They should be commended for this. This would not be done in any other country (for many reasons). The Chinese listen to government guidelines and generally obey what their government tells them to do. (yes, there are repercussions for those that don't, but thats for another thread and not at this time of suffering).


This virus has also caused social issues globally and it's only natural for the human instinct to be protective of potential health risks. Perhaps this is for another thread.


Sadly the doctor that was publicly reprimanded by authorities for 'spreading rumours' about the virus and causing unnecessary panic has died today.


This situation will get worse in the next week.


As Dave Allen used to say (for those that can remember) May your God go with you.

 

[paulears]

I'm in the middle of organising some product and have a pretty good conversation level with the suppliers contact, and she's telling me that in guangzhou their activities are pretty normal - she's concerned for her family of course, but work is normal, but people are just taking the medical advice to just wear the masks all the time, and avoid being too close to people. She says the worst is the constant smells of the stuff people spray around all the time. Manufacture is unaffected at the moment. They're amazed by the number of UK clients who are asking how they are. She thought at first, it was just in case orders were delayed, but now is understanding that people do actually care. She says it's not the reaction their bosses expected from America and Europe.

Just goes to show that these kind of things do more for inter-country relationships than governments ever do!

 

[Dirtyhandsman]

Some expert was was talking on radio 4 the other day and said coronavirus is genetically unusual to most viruses in that it's made of a single stranded RNA instead of a normal double stranded DNA. This makes it much more likely to mutate and hence hard to create vaccines which have longevity. Does anyone know if shipments from Taiwan are affected by this outbreak as I get products from there?

 

[Mr D]

Some expert was was talking on radio 4 the other day and said coronavirus is genetically unusual to most viruses in that it's made of a single stranded RNA instead of a normal double stranded DNA. This makes it much more likely to mutate and hence hard to create vaccines which have longevity. Does anyone know if shipments from Taiwan are affected by this outbreak as I get products from there?

Does your supplier get components from China?
By the time you get your order done will factory have shut down to prevent spread of this virus?

 

[paulears]

Scaremongering. Doesn't help at all - as I said above - I've been assured that at the moment now new year is over, the factories and shipping is working ok - it's possible of course it will go wrong if they don't get control, but at the moment orders are OK, and I'm about to place another big one today.

 

[Mr D]

Scaremongering. Doesn't help at all - as I said above - I've been assured that at the moment now new year is over, the factories and shipping is working ok - it's possible of course it will go wrong if they don't get control, but at the moment orders are OK, and I'm about to place another big one today.

I'm sorry you feel that Chinese methods to reduce the impact of the new virus is scaremongering.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

seems pretty serious to me I mean attempts to contain it don't seem to be having the impact they had hoped and personally I don't want to be quarantined for 14 days should I come into its path

 

[thetiger2015]

Scaremongering. Doesn't help at all - as I said above - I've been assured that at the moment now new year is over, the factories and shipping is working ok - it's possible of course it will go wrong if they don't get control, but at the moment orders are OK, and I'm about to place another big one today.

Not sure if it's scaremongering or being prepared? It might all be nothing to worry about but the sudden spike in response from Chinese officials and the pictures coming out from China through Twitter etc. paint a worrying picture.

Everyone is being told it's nothing to worry about and the flu kills more people than this little thing - OK, so why the huge response, if this is nothing more than a bit of cold? China are worried. They're shutting off entire areas of the country and they don't do that for no reason, it costs them money and it damages their reputation. People are rarely quarantined straight off flights, en-masse, unless officials are trying to get something back in the bottle, so to speak.

In business terms, this could be hugely damaging internationally in the next few months. Not yet, because boats are still docking full of stock. Warehouses are still full and trading normally. If it keeps spreading? If officials start closing ports and warehouses? - 3 months from now this could be a big problem for businesses around the world.

 

[Mr D]

Not sure if it's scaremongering or being prepared? It might all be nothing to worry about but the sudden spike in response from Chinese officials and the pictures coming out from China through Twitter etc. paint a worrying picture.

Everyone is being told it's nothing to worry about and the flu kills more people than this little thing - OK, so why the huge response, if this is nothing more than a bit of cold? China are worried. They're shutting off entire areas of the country and they don't do that for no reason, it costs them money and it damages their reputation. People are rarely quarantined straight off flights, en-masse, unless officials are trying to get something back in the bottle, so to speak.

In business terms, this could be hugely damaging internationally in the next few months. Not yet, because boats are still docking full of stock. Warehouses are still full and trading normally. If it keeps spreading? If officials start closing ports and warehouses? - 3 months from now this could be a big problem for businesses around the world.

Burberry are shutting some of their shops in China - that is a huge market for them.

Perhaps the company won't shut down. It will certainly feel the impact of lower sales - as indeed any of us could if sales dropped sufficiently. Never mind supply.

Flu usually kills lots of people. This virus appears (and initial figures are always going to be inaccurate) to have a higher mortality rate and considerably bigger infection rate (what with being invisible for days).

Knock on effects even closing factories for a few weeks will impact supply chains if companies cannot find different source of stuff.

 

[OMGVape]

Coronavirus Update

People moving from city to city must register online ('Health Registration') with the local municipality and if they have had any contact with people from Hebei Province must self quarantine for 14 days.

I’m following your detailed updates but you keep mentioning Hebei province when you actually mean Hubei province ;-)

 

[OMGVape]

I’ve been looking at the tally of reported deaths and also reported recoveries.

Over the last 6 day’s total deaths slightly more than doubled. Over the same period recoveries quadrupled. Just small numbers at the moment but things will be vastly different in 2-3 months if that keeps up.

 

[Mr D]

I’ve been looking at the tally of reported deaths and also reported recoveries.

Over the last 6 day’s total deaths slightly more than doubled. Over the same period recoveries quadrupled. Just small numbers at the moment but things will be vastly different in 2-3 months if that keeps up.

Also worrying is critical patients - some of whom may recover with sufficient care.
4,826 (15% of infected) in critical condition.

Even if 98% recover and 2% die - its still a massive number.

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update 8th February:


Another 3729 patients tested positive yesterday to take the total tested and infected to 34559. A 10% increase from yesterday.


85 deaths recorded yesterday to take the total fatalities to 720. The biggest daily increase so far.


As these figures rise, the panic and fear within the general China public also rises. This is not an exaggeration, nor is it scaremongering. Every area in China is greatly impacted with the growing spread of this virus. There is no grip on this virus and the numbers (the one's being released) just keep growing. It's probably fair to assume that the real figures of contamination are far higher as the figures released are only based on those tested.


More quarantine 'hospitals' are being set up in Wuhan and in other cities in Hubei Province. There are now a total of 163 'hospitals' converted to treating patients infected with the virus and a total of 30,000 beds available in Wuhan alone.


In Wuhan, there are not enough medical resources including medicine, protective suits, equipment and personnel. More doctors are arriving daily. There is a shortage throughout China of these medical supplies and some factories have started to change their product category and to start manufacturing face masks, gloves and protective clothing etc as the current need for this is vital.


Most restaurants in Wuhan are closed. This is a problem in itself as local residents (as well as personnel in the makeshift hospitals) need a supply of food to be delivered to them on a regular basis. Many residents will not venture out to supermarkets to buy food. Many restaurants in major cities are also closed. There is simply a fear of going to places with large gatherings and it's actively encouraged to avoid such places.


50 million people are on 'lockdown' in Hubei Province alone and this is spreading to other provinces all across China.


The government have now put very very strict guidelines in order to contain this virus.


People movement now has strict procedures to follow. No-one (literally) can leave towns or cities without notification, online registration with health authorities and onward address details. In many cases, return is prohibited for a period of 14 days.


The working 'migrant' population is struggling to get back to their working provinces due to transport restrictions and (dare I say it) personal fear for their health. People prefer to stay put and not travel at all.


China news agencies are emphasising the 'recovery' figures which are growing and that the numbers infected are slowing in order to lower fears within the China public. I don't share this optimism that the virus has been contained, neither do most of the China public. They are much more savvy than they once were.


I cannot see how factory production will start on the 10th February as scheduled by the government. Workers will be reluctant to go in and understandably so. Sales teams, R&D staff, administration and general office staff will mostly be told to work from home, where possible. Production lines, where its normal for between 200 - 1000 to share one open space will be difficult to operate under the current restrictions and conditions. Most workers are still in their home provinces and are unable to leave due to the restrictions.


Many factory sales staff have been advised not to 'spread bad news' to their oversees customers and to say that everything is normal. This is far from the truth and certainly not what I have experienced having spoken to key personnel within factories we work with. Many have not replied yet, which is very unusual in itself given that they were supposed to return on 3rd February. These are key personnel (owners, engineers, managers within factories) and would normally be online (at the very least) to accept and return messages.


Every building, including restaurants, hotels, offices, factories, shopping malls throughout China are now disinfecting public areas including lifts and often used spaces on a regular basis. There is a nervousness within the China public to visit these areas at the moment.
Generally, there will not be normality in factories for some time yet.


These posts are certainly not intended to be 'scaremongering' in any way. My comments are fact based and from a perspective of a Brit living in China (Guangzhou) and with many business contacts throughout the whole of China.


This virus is far from being contained or controlled.

 

[Mr D]

The people infected but carrying a small viral load may well not get very sick. There will be some who are somewhat Ill but get over it - these will probably not die and will not need hospital treatment. May not show on official figures - bit like here those not so ill ill may not show on official figures for flu any year.

The dead will be from earlier in the timeline of infection - perhaps catching the virus several days ago, perhaps doing so 3 weeks ago.

About all we can expect now are the numbers to rise in China and rest of world. Including UK.

 

[Opinion87]

*Chinese residents forced into coronavirus quarantine."

Ever so slightly unsettling...

 

[paulears]

In this country, potentially infectious people would wander around infecting everyone, citing their rights, and their ability to mix with people while infectious. They'd go on national TV complaining that they'd been forced to be held hostage in a hotel or other unacceptable 5 star accommodation. However they try to contain the spread, they're damned.

 

[Mr D]

In this country, potentially infectious people would wander around infecting everyone, citing their rights, and their ability to mix with people while infectious. They'd go on national TV complaining that they'd been forced to be held hostage in a hotel or other unacceptable 5 star accommodation. However they try to contain the spread, they're damned.

Would take a lot for our government to try taking action to interfere with the lives of many - by that time probably too late - and kill off lots of businesses. While people themselves help kill off a lot of the 'less able'. The old, the sick etc.
Good for the economy, bad for jobs and bad for individuals.

 

[OMGVape]

I’m starting to think this quoted mortality rate of 2% is totally wrong. Let me assume the people who have died had actually been infected for say 14 days before loosing the fight (not such an unreasonable assumption). So today’s total death figure of 700+ deaths are actually of those infected people from the reported infections 14 days ago.

The total known infections 14 days ago was around 1300 which suggests a mortality rate of over 50%.

I guess my theory will be proven if, 14 days from now, about 20,000 are dead (over 50% of today’s infections).

Which suggests total deaths multiply by x30 every 14 days, so......

600,000 dead by 7th March
18 million by 21st March
540 million by 4th April
1.6 billion by 18th April
One week later will total the whole population of the planet :-(

Will the last person to leave the human race please turn off the lights.

 

[Mr D]

I’m starting to think this quoted mortality rate of 2% is totally wrong. Let me assume the people who have died had actually been infected for say 14 days before loosing the fight (not such an unreasonable assumption). So today’s total death figure of 700+ deaths are actually of those infected people from the reported infections 14 days ago.

The total known infections 14 days ago was around 1300 which suggests a mortality rate of over 50%.

I guess my theory will be proven if, 14 days from now, about 20,000 are dead (over 50% of today’s infections).

Which suggests total deaths multiply by x30 every 14 days, so......

600,000 dead by 7th March
18 million by 21st March
540 million by 4th April
1.6 billion by 18th April
One week later will total the whole population of the planet :-(

Will the last person to leave the human race please turn off the lights.

Better hope not.
50% death rate is enough to destroy most societies. But yes we are seeing deaths from infections that happened a while ago mostly.

Some who get the virus won't be ill. Some will be ill and recover.

Depending on its mutations this illness could swing around every once in a while like the flu or the common cold. Or blow through like SARS or MARS and not be seen again on a large scale.

OK
Looking currently:
37,155 infected.
6,109 in severe condition
806 deaths (+82).

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update 9th February:


Another 2990 patients tested positive yesterday to take the total tested and infected to 37549.
93 deaths recorded yesterday to take the total fatalities to 813. The biggest daily death total to date.


The trajectory continues to rise.


2 new born babies were diagnosed with the virus on Friday, (both mothers were diagnosed with the virus). Sadly one baby passed away yesterday.


The China government have stated that any patient with confirmed symptoms of the virus will be sent to a hospital for observation. (Their slogan: No-one Will Be Left Behind). Not sure if they have the resources for this, given the amount of people infected and showing symptoms.


Small towns are increasingly getting more difficult to leave. All traffic lights are now left on red in many towns to stop people leaving. Cars are not allowed to collect people from other towns.
Major roads are still on lockdown with entry onto motorways blocked and have a police presence. In some towns and villages, people need a release note and health certificate in order to leave.


Trains tickets are not being issued to allow people to sit next to each other, there must be at least one seat separation.


Schools and universities are not allowed to open before March 1st. An extension to this date will be likely if the infected total continues to rise in the next week.


After Hubei province, the 2nd & 3rd highest total of recorded infections by province are in Guangdong & Zhejiang provinces, the most concentrated area for factories. Guangdong is especially noted for the manufacturing of technology products (amongst others) in Dongguan & Shenzhen. Zhejiang province is concentrated with household products, fabrics (amongst others). Speaking to many factory owners I know, they told me that many owners and managers left their home provinces before the transport ban started as they feared (or were informed) the lockdown would take place.


Factories in Guangdong province now need authorisation to re-open after CNY. Authorities will carefully study application forms before granting permission to open. The earliest date that production lines will be able to operate has been earmarked for March 1st. I expect this will be the case in other parts of China.


It will be prudent for business owners to make contingency plans if they work directly with China factories, as there is likely to be disruption on the vast majority of products being manufactured for a 1 - 2 month period at the very least.


Guidelines are being issued to all business owners/companies to adhere to local regulations before commencing work after CNY. The list is comprehensive and requires hygiene supplies, including masks to be available. Business owners/Companies are required to fill in forms with signature and company stamp. If any violation occurs, they will be responsible for any issues arising of non compliance.


In Guangzhou, in order to buy masks you have to go to the pharmacy and fill in an application form at 8.30am. You are informed at 3pm if you will be allocated a face mask that day.


Emphasis on China news bulletins continues to be on the people recovered, as well as showing world infected figures in order to try to deflect it as being a 'China' problem. People can make their own assumptions.


Authorities say the situation is grim. (A news bulletin quote)


2 ships (docked in Japan & Hong Kong) with Chinese travelers have people infected on board and have been quarantined. The amount of infected is bound to rise on these 2 ships giving the close proximity people get on these cruises. I imagine every cruise ship with Chinese travelers collected at pick up points in and around China will be looking to step up their health checks.


It cannot be stated enough at the lengths the Chinese authorities are doing to try to contain and combat this virus from spreading.


However, there has been public uproar in China over the rebuked doctor that died of the virus on last Friday. Dr Li Wenliang was 34 years old and tried to alert his fellow doctors of the threat of the virus. He was publicly reprimanded and forced to sign a declaration that he was wrong and will not continue to spread rumors. When authorities were asked at a news conference to comment on his death, they responded by saying that they do not have his notes to comment. Make up your own minds if this was the right response.


"Saving face' seems to still be the trait, even under these circumstances.

 

[MBE2017]

Thanks for the updates from ground zero My Office in China. Hope you keep well.

 

[Financial-Modeller]

Interesting quantitative analysis and commentary from JP Morgan et al in this article.

The JP Morgan forecast (of 7/2/20) already looks light.

Unsurprisingly, adjusting for updates from @MY OFFICE IN CHINA and elsewhere produce some pretty scary base case forecasts through March, with 200,000 deaths in China alone.

However, its worth putting into context, 30,000 people die of natural causes every day in China.

This assumes that the data coming from the Chinese government is correct, which is under significant doubt.

 

[Mr D]

Interesting quantitative analysis and commentary from JP Morgan et al in this article.

The JP Morgan forecast (of 7/2/20) already looks light.

Unsurprisingly, adjusting for updates from @MY OFFICE IN CHINA and elsewhere produce some pretty scary base case forecasts through March, with 200,000 deaths in China alone.

However, its worth putting into context, 30,000 people die of natural causes every day in China.

This assumes that the data coming from the Chinese government is correct, which is under significant doubt.

Perhaps focus on those countries whose health service / politicians we do trust and follow the reported figures from them. Sure, low to very low at the moment. But will increase over time.

Probably not much more accurate - whether people can tell the difference between one virus and another is up to themselves, and not everyone notifies official bodies that they have a minor illness.
But maybe get some figures that are different.

 

[Mr D]

How to do public health when low numbers to deal with?


https://www.straitstimes.com/singap...virus-cases-including-71-year-old-grandfather

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update 10th February:


Another 2829 patients tested positive yesterday alone to take the total tested and infected to 40378.


95 deaths recorded yesterday to take the total fatalities to 908. The biggest daily death rise total to date.


The trajectory continues to rise at an alarming rate.


There continues to be a huge lack of protective supplies including protective suits & testing equipment in Wuhan City and masks generally throughout China.


The cruise ship in Japan which has been quarantined after 10 patients were tested positive with the virus a few days ago, has now 70 people infected.


The government has advised (ordered) community members to knock on every door to check on people with symptoms and report their findings.


People moving from town to town, must first apply for a permit, notify and fill in a medical report and notify their forwarding address.


An estimated 70% of all workers are still in their home provinces, unable to travel due to the current lockdown in all towns.


Factories have been told they are not allowed to re-open their production lines before (provisionally) March 1st. If the infected total continues to rise in the next 7 days, this will surely be extended to April 1st. Admin staff are being advised to work from home, where possible. Permits need to be granted by the government to allow factories to open.


The government is set to pay all factories with over 100 employees a sum of RMB200,000 (approx GBP22,000). Many factories will go bankrupt.


Again, it's important to reiterate that the China government is doing everything it can to contain and combat this virus.


The major Hong Kong shows in April have yet to be officially cancelled (Canton Fair has already announced it's cancellation), but given that virtually all the exhibitors come from China, this is just a question of time. Not sure what miracle they're waiting for!


As mentioned in yesterday's post, it's important for all business owners working directly with factories to have contingency plans in place. I cannot see any production leaving China factories until the beginning of April, at the earliest. If the factory production start date is extended from March 1st, then this will have dramatic consequences for China's economy as well as global manufacturers who are reliant on China made components. Virtually every industry has component parts being manufactured in China, including the likes of Apple, Samsung and many other technology related brands.


It's interesting to note that there has been ZERO mention (on general TV news) of when factories are likely to go back to work (They keep saying 10th February is when they will start). There is also no mention of the cancellation of fairs, particularly the Canton Fair. This is in stark contrast to how they generally promote factory production output, international fairs to show economic growth etc. etc. I suppose this is to be expected.


Has the UK (and the world) become too reliant on China?


'When China sneezes, the whole world will catch a cold' seems an appropriate statement to make.


Be well everybody.

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

^ Some great info from the coal face, thanks for these updates.

 

[saton]

Doctors say it's unrealistic. The life of the virus outside the living organism (in packages) is minimal. When aired where low temperatures the virus dies

 

[Chris Ashdown]

As a large number of clothing manufacture is made in China nearly always with something like 3 month from order to delivery, it will be another blow to shops with delays to the spring and summer fashions as well as workwear, and then with bankruptcy comes a lack of expensive cars and other high end imported items

All we can do is wish them well and also hope its contained outside China

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

4 more cases in the UK!

 

[Mr D]

A different take on the numbers. Cannot say they are wrong.

Mild Condition
29,762
(82% of currently infected)
Serious or Critical
6,494
(18% of currently infected)

Cases with Outcome
4,376
Recovered/Discharged
3,466
(79% of cases with outcome)
Deaths
910
(21% of cases with outcome)

Feel free to manipulate the outcome figures to get the results you wish, those who prefer other figures.
The figures of course could all be wrong. But we don't have more accurate replacements. Yet.
Maybe in another 25 years.