Chinese virus

[MBE2017]

Personally I think the Chinese are completely under reporting the number of deaths. Time will tell, but they have historical form for doing so, reports I am hearing suggests much higher figures, but nothing concrete as yet.

One guy on Twitter was following a hearse in China and claimed they were asking for more body bags, and that eight bodies had been removed from one hospital on the first visit of the day.

Hope I am wrong, but no national authority would want panic, even so face masks seem to have sold out already in the UK.

 

[Mr D]

Personally I think the Chinese are completely under reporting the number of deaths. Time will tell, but they have historical form for doing so, reports I am hearing suggests much higher figures, but nothing concrete as yet.

One guy on Twitter was following a hearse in China and claimed they were asking for more body bags, and that eight bodies had been removed from one hospital on the first visit of the day.

Hope I am wrong, but no national authority would want panic, even so face masks seem to have sold out already in the UK.

Yes, agree they will be underreporting.
Been known to overreport good news and underreport bad news for decades.

Yesterday the number of dead as a result of this virus in China jumped by almost 20%. Today they are reporting 2,298 (13%) of cases as critical. So perhaps trying to save face while correcting figures.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Figures not helped by people who stay at home when unwell, not reporting to authorities and not going to hospital.
Just like in the UK not everyone with flu for example goes to see GP or turns up at hospital (some do have instructions to go straight to A&E.

Face masks - the cycling ones can be useful.

Unfortunately any illness that hits 'less well' people hard enough to kill can be built into government policy to remove less productive / high cost population and give a boost to the economy. Watch out for it happening around - in government responses.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

What's the logic behind the virus being more deadly at the point of source in China?

 

[MBE2017]

What's the logic behind the virus being more deadly at the point of source in China?

Not heard that argument, more trying to reduce the spread of the virus, which is already mutating as it spreads. I think the death rate of the virus will remain at its current level, whatever that maybe. Well equipped prepared nations might treat large numbers more effectively, but doubt I would include the UK in that category.

 

[The Byre]

What's the logic behind the virus being more deadly at the point of source in China?

None whatsoever!

In fact, although it may spread faster in China as a result of higher contact frequency and greater internal migration of labour, the Chinese population seems to have a (reportedly!) greater level of immunity to viruses of this H1N1 type.

Europeans do not get novelle viruses every few years thrown at them, so they may be more likely to keel-over and 'buy the farm'!

 

[Root 66 Woodshop]

According to the Daily Wail, one chap beat Coronavirus with a hot toddy!

I can see the sales of JD and Old Grouse souring now!

 

[Deleted member 59730]

In fact, although it may spread faster in China as a result of higher contact frequency and greater internal migration of labour, the Chinese population seems to have a (reportedly!) greater level of immunity to viruses of this H1N1 type.

China and Japan with well used public transport systems are at greater risk of spread than countries or areas which uses cars more.

Other differences would be timing and habits of school holidays. As an example there may be flu cases in London in the winter which only arrive in Cornwall during Easter holidays

 

[DontAsk]

According to the Daily Wail, one chap beat Coronavirus with a hot toddy!

I disinfected by lghting a candle smelling of Gwyneth Paltrow's fanny.

 

[Root 66 Woodshop]

@DontAsk Isn't that called Goop?

 

[Mr D]

What's the logic behind the virus being more deadly at the point of source in China?

Not more deadly - but who gets it may have an impact.
China initially at least most of the dead were middle aged or older. People that may have ailments more common to older people.
People already with breathing difficulties (how is the local air quality?) developing pneumonia - not a good thing.

 

[Mr D]

According to the Daily Wail, one chap beat Coronavirus with a hot toddy!

I can see the sales of JD and Old Grouse souring now!

Who was looking for whiskey importer in bulk recently - does he know something?

 

[Mr D]

Not heard that argument, more trying to reduce the spread of the virus, which is already mutating as it spreads. I think the death rate of the virus will remain at its current level, whatever that maybe. Well equipped prepared nations might treat large numbers more effectively, but doubt I would include the UK in that category.

Appears at the moment treat the symptoms not the source.
When (if) there is a vaccine developed then the problem comes how to use it.
Ring immunisation requires 90 odd percent to get vaccinated. We don't often manage that with other serious problems for which a vaccine is available. There are people around who would rather others get ill than see themselves or their kids vaccinated.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

China had the misfortune of having the new year at the same time with a massive amount of travel being caused as a by product so the spread was massive rather than contained to the city with just a few traveling around the rest of China

One think that is impressive is the building of both the old Sars hospital a few years ago and the new temporary on in 10 days, that shows massive pre planning of major buildings and mobilisation of work forces, and yes they have a different form of government and regulations but it is still highly efficient, something not always associated with China

 

[Karimbo]

Considering that the mortality rate has been 0.01% so far (SARS was 9%) I get the sneaky feeling that this whole thing is being blown out of all proportion.

It would hardly surprise me if more people died as a result of the measures taken to prevent this disease than die of the disease!

There are about ten-times too many people on Planet Earth anyway.

The main problem with corona isn't it's lethality (or lack thereof). The problem is it's ease of transmission from one person to another, it can pass on to another person without the carrier actually falling ill. So it spreads really fast. The saving grace is that the human body can heal from it in most cases.

Imagine a virus with the reproductive value of corona, and the lethality of HIV. The human race would be extinct in no time.

Here is an explanation of how quickly it can jump from person to person: https://i.imgur.com/JfzIOZM.png

 

[The Byre]

Imagine a virus with the reproductive value of corona, and the lethality of HIV. The human race would be extinct in no time.

How about a virus that attacks the very immune system, making them vulnerable to any and every minor disease? The common cold would kill. It could be transmitted by the act of copulation, thus making humans reluctant to reproduce. Untreated it would be deadly and cause fear in whole populations.

Well, I can dream, can't I?

 

[Mr D]

Was at the Spring Fair today. Free hand sanitiser being given out along with the show guides. Must have seen a couple of thousand people from the side or front - saw two wearing surgical masks.
One looked Chinese and was standing alone at his stall while plenty of people appeared to be using different routes to get where they were going.
They may have had reason to use other aisles to get where they were going. Or they may have been avoiding the one person they could see wearing a mask. Impossible to tell for others.

From what the media report from multiple places there appears to be a tendency to avoid Chinese, perhaps assigning blame to people who have a particular genetic heritage whether they are Chinese nationals or not.

Expect things to get worse before they get better. This is still early stages yet.

As of 11pm China is reported to have another 2,463 cases today and another 64 deaths.
Making their totals 19,668 cases and 425 deaths.
Reality? Make your own guesses.

 

[MOIC]

The trajectory of both infections and deaths is steadily increasing day by day.

My guess is that this will affect factories operating fully during February and probably into March, given that virtually any product relies on a large supply chain for it's components.

Currently the China government has stopped factories re-opening until the 10th (they were due to open on the 3rd) and if the trajectory continues upwardly, I think this may be extended, or at the very least restricted. Given that many factories rely on migrant employees from adjacent/different provinces, the workforce will have problems getting to their destinations, especially if current travel bans are not fully lifted.

As always with the China government, they look at the economic repercussions and this virus outbreak will have a huge impact on the economy the longer it continues to spread and restrictions are in place.

Travel bans within China as well as many airlines stopping to fly into China will have an impact on trade fairs in March being affected (My guess is that they will be cancelled) and I reckon that the April fairs (Canton Fair) will probably be the first that goes ahead this year. Again this will depend on the trajectory during the next 7-10 days. If it continues in an upwardly direction (for both infections and deaths), then April fairs will be liable to be cancelled, as airlines will continue to stop flying into China.

Whilst the China government have tried to contain the virus by imposing travel bans on a huge part of the country (not only within Hebei Province where Wuhan is situated), as well as restricting any large gatherings (imagine if these bans were in London or any other European city), my feeling is that they delayed the bans until AFTER the China New Year travel was completed which meant millions of people leaving Hebei province, allowing the virus to spread outside of the province.

It's important to understand that the vast majority of China's working population 'migrate' from their working provinces to their home provinces and it's customary for families to be together during the China New Year festival, so a huge number of people are traveling from province to province.

The delay in imposing the travel ban until 1 day before China New Year, allowing people to complete their travels, may have been calculated by the China government to allow families to be together during the CNY festival. However this 'people migration' could only have allowed the virus to spread at a dramatic rate.

The fact is that no-one knows at this stage how bad it will get and how it will affect China returning to 'normality'. It could take 2-3 months at least.

Let's all hope for the best.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

One think that is impressive is the building of both the old Sars hospital a few years ago and the new temporary on in 10 days, that shows massive pre planning of major buildings and mobilisation of work forces,

Compared to HS2.

 

[OMGVape]

Health secretary says global infections are doubling every 5 days. By my calculations on this here beer mat, in about 4 months time everyone on the planet will have it and 150 million people will die and 9 BILLION of us will be in a critical condition.

I’m working through my bucket list from tomorrow and starting my own vaccine trial, a bottle of Asbach brandy every night :-(

 

[Mr D]

Health secretary says global infections are doubling every 5 days. By my calculations on this here beer mat, in about 4 months time everyone on the planet will have it and 150 million people will die and 9 BILLION of us will be in a critical condition.

I’m working through my bucket list from tomorrow and starting my own vaccine trial, a bottle of Asbach brandy every night :-(

Yeah its been nice knowing you all.

Do we get to sing 'So long and thanks for all the fish'? Or that depressing song 'We'll meet again'?

 

[MOIC]

Update 5 Feb:

The trajectory continues in an upwardly direction with an increased daily total of infected and fatalities.

March fairs have all been cancelled.

I think it's inevitable that the Canton fair will be cancelled. It's a matter of time when this will be officially announced. Not to do so, will be reckless in my view.

Generally, factories are supposed to be returning on 10th Feb, but production will not be able to start for some time after this date and I expect that these dates will be extended. It's just not possible for a factory to start full production with all the current restrictions in place.

Many factories will be sending their customers emails explaining what precautions they will be taking as well as stating that sales staff will be working online instead of going into offices. The truth is that they are all under the control of China Government guidelines and given that they want to try to keep a lid on the spread of the virus, I expect there will be weekly extensions limiting movement and any large gatherings (factories in China typically have 1000 - 2000 workers at least, so will impact all factories).

Currently, some areas across China (not just Wuhan or within Hubei Province) are forbidden to leave without authorisation.

Watch the movie Contagion . . . . . . . . (If you haven't already).

 

[Root 66 Woodshop]

We had a customer in yesterday, who has said that the news isn't being forthright and truthful on how severe this actually is... now whether that's the news or the Chinese government that he's referring too I'm not 100% sure as he was German and kept going back to other things... but he's said that the virus has spread a lot further than they're making out...

 

[Chris Ashdown]

More to the point is how many have recovered

Deaths of the old and poorly will always be there especially in winter with many known viruses being the cause, it would be easy to put all deaths down to the virus rather than say flu or any other, When you are dealing with large numbers often full post mortems are not done

I remember the outcry in Africa, when I was out there when HIV was killing millions, but no extra funerals marching through the streets, They worked on WHO rules that any one who was with fever, chest infection and i forget the other part was classified as HIV, the country was then given a massive increase in aid the more they reported

 

[Mr D]

We had a customer in yesterday, who has said that the news isn't being forthright and truthful on how severe this actually is... now whether that's the news or the Chinese government that he's referring too I'm not 100% sure as he was German and kept going back to other things... but he's said that the virus has spread a lot further than they're making out...

Quite likely the virus has - but without testing for it no one can know.

 

[Mr D]

More to the point is how many have recovered

990.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[MOIC]

I think its more relevant the amount of people that have the virus that have not been diagnosed.

This could easily x10 (if not more) than the figure that have been diagnosed.

 

[Newchodge]

Think about the relative of this virus, the common cold. Some people get a bit of a sniffle and some people feel so ill with sore throat, headache, fever, that they are genuinelyincapacitated for several days, with all variations in between. If the same variation is true of this virus there will be thousands (at least) of infected and infectious people who will never be known about.

 

[Mr D]

Think about the relative of this virus, the common cold. Some people get a bit of a sniffle and some people feel so ill with sore throat, headache, fever, that they are genuinelyincapacitated for several days, with all variations in between. If the same variation is true of this virus there will be thousands (at least) of infected and infectious people who will never be known about.

Yes. And spreading the illness about before they develop symptoms - so making it very hard to chase down the people any one person has infected.

Someone asks you for a detailed account of who you came into contact with on Wednesday last week - can you give details on each person sufficient to trace them?
Hard enough in a workplace - but who was stood behind you when you were getting lunch at the sandwich shop?

Basically containment is not going to work for this.

 

[Mr D]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/passenger-grounded-plane-false-coronavirus-074200126.html

How not to make a viral video.
People panicking...
Good that the aircraft followed protocols to resolve.

 

[Financial-Modeller]

It feels like the infected population could become very large, very quickly, presenting a danger to those with vulnerabilities.

So, as members of the business community, what should we be doing?

A few suggestions to start:

• for those selling goods, examining supply chains to identify alternative sources to China where applicable
• Updating (or writing) a Disaster Recovery Plan to determine what is critical, what is not, and how the critical stuff will continue
• for those with employees, ensuring sickness policy is up-to-date, arranging for homeworking etc, ensuring IT equipment/licenses etc will work for employees working from home
• Understanding contractual implications of your company not delivering due to reduced workforce e.g. building contractors could face penalties for not completing construction etc
• Examining insurance policies for Business Continuity cover, Key Man cover etc

 

[Mr D]

For those able to supply others, would suggest looking into figuring out who would want you in their supply chain if the current places are unable to supply in time.
Its early days yet but opportunities may well pop up so worth being prepared.

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

surely there must be a way of containing / stoping / virtually stopping the spread - even if it means shutting down full towns and cities for 20 days and telling people to stay at home unless they need to go to hospital because they have the disease or something else that's better than X number of people dying all over the rest of the world?

 

[alan1302]

surely there must be a way of containing / stoping / virtually stopping the spread - even if it means shutting down full towns and cities for 20 days and telling people to stay at home unless they need to go to hospital because they have the disease or something else that's better than X number of people dying all over the rest of the world?

Can you imagine trying to close down an entire city for 20 days? How are people going to get food to eat? How will people be able to earn mony?

 

[Newchodge]

surely there must be a way of containing / stoping / virtually stopping the spread - even if it means shutting down full towns and cities for 20 days and telling people to stay at home unless they need to go to hospital because they have the disease or something else that's better than X number of people dying all over the rest of the world?

It's already out there. People are infectious before they show symptoms. So taking the UK example of 2 chinese people who arrived in this country as one was a student at York university. They probably arrived at Newcatle airport on a flight from Dubai containing 400 odd passengers. Potentially all 400 odd passengers are infected and can infect others, plus all those in the passport control area when they passed through, and people in the terminal building. They either travelled to York on public transport or in a car or in a taxi, unknown potential numbers exposed there. In York they may have gone round the city, visited pubs, restauarants etc before they fell ill. Easily a thousand people potentially infected by those 2 people. That thousand people dispersed and potentially infected 10's of thousands of people. Please explain how you contain that?

 

[ComPropSolicitor]

I'm not saying it would be easy - but, surely the expected or, anticipated (predicted) loss to life would justify some kind of action. Even if it meant wearing masks compulsory?

 

[alan1302]

I'm not saying it would be easy - but, surely the expected or, anticipated (predicted) loss to life would justify some kind of action. Even if it meant wearing masks compulsory?

Give us some idea on how it would even be possible? Which city/town are you expecting to close? It's just a silly idea that is not possible.

Masks don't stop the spread of the virus either.

 

[Newchodge]

I'm not saying it would be easy - but, surely the expected or, anticipated (predicted) loss to life would justify some kind of action. Even if it meant wearing masks compulsory?

Mask wearing, by those already infected, may help limit the spread. Mask wearing by those uninfected is likely to aid spread as the virus can sit on the mask, which becomes moistened by breath and concentrates the virus making it more likely that an uninfected mask wearer will become infected.

 

[Mr D]

surely there must be a way of containing / stoping / virtually stopping the spread - even if it means shutting down full towns and cities for 20 days and telling people to stay at home unless they need to go to hospital because they have the disease or something else that's better than X number of people dying all over the rest of the world?

Yes there is a way.
Quarantine every town, every city, every village.
You won't have food delivery, you won't have anything more than emergency healthcare, you won't have GP surgeries or pharmacists open.
No public gathering places open - so no cafes, restaurants, theatres, cinemas, pubs etc.

And do that for at least 2 weeks. While also sealing off our borders entirely, so not anything enters the country by any means.

Brutal but effective. Ask yourself can you cope with staying in the house for 2 weeks with no shopping and no external electricity.


Its much cheaper and less invasive to simply deal with the fact people will get ill.

 

[Root 66 Woodshop]

surely there must be a way of containing / stoping / virtually stopping the spread - even if it means shutting down full towns and cities for 20 days and telling people to stay at home unless they need to go to hospital because they have the disease or something else that's better than X number of people dying all over the rest of the world?

Bit harsh innit?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-global-economy