Brexit negotiations

[Cobby]

The question is whether we will be able to negotiate better trading arrangements than we have at present. I suspect we will be able to do so with some products, but it can work both ways. Some countries could see it as an opportunity to negotiate a better deal for themselves as they will be negotiating with a smaller player than the EU is.

It's also worth remembering that we're currently seen by the international community as a bit of a joke; inflicting great personal harm to our country for no sound reason.

But what's worse is that the actions of our government are very visible and they have been burning through future negotiating capital by showing that what they agree in negotiations may not reflect what they publicly claim to have done or what they claim they will do in the future. The government simply aren't trustworthy and that's one of the weakest negotiating positions you could hope to start from.

We've got ~170 (IIRC) agreements to negotiate just to get back to where we are now, let alone provide a structure for economic growth in the future, and it's incredibly naive to expect it all to be completed within 2 years anyway, let alone headed by a government that has already shown they lack any good faith.

 

[Cobby]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/15/trump-threatens-use-us-trade-talks-force-nhs-pay-drugs/

Can we update "Remoaners" to "ReToldYouSos"?

 

[Cobby]

I find it kind of laughable that while he's crowing over this, his leader Corbyn is holding firmly onto his line that we can't remain in the EU because it stops us being able to nationalise.

I can't tell if Corbyn is as incompetent as May, as ignorant as May, as dishonest as May, or perhaps all three?

 

[Jasondb]

The Nationalization point by Labour in regards to EU policy is an interesting one.
I'm one of those that think some things are better under government and national control or at least companies that are deemed to be UK institutions.

 

[Mr D]

The Nationalization point by Labour in regards to EU policy is an interesting one.
I'm one of those that think some things are better under government and national control or at least companies that are deemed to be UK institutions.

What successes have there been under government control?
I'm trying to think of any and cannot at the moment.

Part of the problem with the recent issue of the trains is that Network Rail didn't do the upgrades that were promised. Network Rail is state owned.
Lets see - BBC - they are known as a well run organisation?
NHS known as a well run organisation?
Crown post offices are great? I rarely use one - those who use them regularly would you suggest all post offices should run as efficiently?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Mark Carney has just told the Treasury Select Committee that real household incomes are around £900 lower than forecast in May 2016 due to the Brexit vote.

The worry for me is that we still haven't even left yet.

 

[Mr D]

Mark Carney has just told the Treasury Select Committee that real household incomes are around £900 lower than forecast in May 2016 due to the Brexit vote.

The worry for me is that we still haven't even left yet.

Another 10 months and we can find out what that is like.

 

[Cobby]

Another 10 months and we can find out what that is like.

With a bit of luck we won't have to!

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44221524

What is it with Brexiteers and vehicles?

The big red bus, Nigel's boat and now Boris' Brexit plane.

Now we just need to scale this up and we can have a Brexit hot air balloon, too.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44229606

It turns out that the technology-based customs solution, the supposed answer to all our customs woes, is likely to cost businesses an average of £32.50 per customs declaration.

This could cost businesses up to £20bn per year, or almost double the amount we pay for EU membership after the rebate is factored in.

No great surprise, of course. These are the sort of costs and points of friction that a customs union is designed to avoid.

 

[Mr D]

Is there any reason why this charge would be made while presumably a different charge is made for places that the country exports to that are not in a customs union with us?

 

[Newchodge]

I thought that the point of leaving the EU was to, well, leave the EU. So why does Britain think we can pick and choose which bits we leave. Latest in many examples of our government stamping its feet and bursting into tears because of the foreseeable (and predicted) consequences of our decision.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44232269

If the EU Galileo project is for EU members, and others wishing to use it can do so for a fee, why do we think we should not have to pay for it?

 

[Cobby]

I thought that the point of leaving the EU was to, well, leave the EU. So why does Britain think we can pick and choose which bits we leave. Latest in many examples of our government stamping its feet and bursting into tears because of the foreseeable (and predicted) consequences of our decision.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44232269

If the EU Galileo project is for EU members, and others wishing to use it can do so for a fee, why do we think we should not have to pay for it?

The most ironic thing about this is that it was us that demanded the exclusion of third-party countries from the service. Now we're cross that, as a third party country, we'll be excluded? Madness.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I thought that the point of leaving the EU was to, well, leave the EU. So why does Britain think we can pick and choose which bits we leave. Latest in many examples of our government stamping its feet and bursting into tears because of the foreseeable (and predicted) consequences of our decision.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44232269

If the EU Galileo project is for EU members, and others wishing to use it can do so for a fee, why do we think we should not have to pay for it?

In its position paper, the UK government repeats its threat to build its own satellite navigation system - which has been estimated would cost up to £5bn - as a rival to Galileo.

That'll teach 'em.

The irony, of course, is that we'd probably pay a large chunk of that money to the European Space Agency to launch the satellites into orbit.

As much as I wish that the UK gets the best deal possible, I actually hope the EU stands its ground on this. It's starting to become farcical how often we are complaining about leaving the EU and then being treated like any other non-EU country.

If we do end up with stronger benefits and rights than the average non-EU nation, that's going to be a favour, not a right. It was entirely our choice to walk away.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

It turns out that the technology-based customs solution, the supposed answer to all our customs woes, is likely to cost businesses an average of £32.50 per customs declaration.

This could cost businesses up to £20bn per year, or almost double the amount we pay for EU membership after the rebate is factored in.

Scroll back to when I predicted this months ago. I know of at least 3 smallish Cornish bakeries who have a profitable line in exporting frozen and part-baked pasties all over Europe. Some are making several shipments a day. Just imagine their paperwork proving that they haven't used any of Rees-Mogg's and Fox's US hormone beef.

 

[Newchodge]

But it's all right, because we have got back control.

 

[Cobby]

This week in Brexit:

== HEAD BREXIT CHEERLEADER RECANTS: ADMITS IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A SUCCESS ==
Nigel "I'm not racist but" Farage, has spent a lifetime claiming that we'd be much better off outside the EU.

We would be substantially better off not being in the EU because the opportunity cost of us not being able to make our own trade deals with the emerging economies of the world is holding back British business. In terms of trade, the EU is now a millstone around our neck.
- Interview on Radio 4, May 2015

He now admits that leaving the EU will not leave us better off and that he never said Brexit would be a success.
https://bit.ly/2xMgYfn (LBC radio, 29 May).

The head cheerleader of the Leave movement and he is back-pedalling from his previous rhetoric like mad. I mean, it's really not a surprise that he was wrong, just that he'd get so close to admitting it.

=== FIGURE-HEAD FOR BREXIT ADMITS HE DIDN'T WANT BREXIT ===
Daniel Hannan, who, prior to the referendum, famously argued that Brexit didn't mean "leaving the single market", and afterwards spent a lot of energy denying he'd meant that, now admits he expected a 52/48 result would simply be leverage to get more concessions while remaining within the EU.
https://twitter.com/EenVandaag/status/1003677539980664832

=== AS PREDICTED, 'RULES OF ORIGIN' CAUSING HARM TO UK ECONOMY ===
As expected, there's more damage in the pipeline from brexit, before we've even left the EU, from the 'Rules of Origin' regulations. With the UK "choosing to leave" the EU, we're finding that EU manufacturers are being advised to diversify their supply lines to avoid taking inventory from soon-to-be-third country, the UK.
https://ind.pn/2JdWgKO

=== GOVERNMENT TRYING TO BYPASS PARLIAMENT (AGAIN) ===
The government are pushing through the debates and voting on all 15 of the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill in a one day session in an attempt to starve Parliament of the opportunity to properly debate them. It's astonishing given the importance of this document.

Surprisingly, Labour came out in fierce criticism of this Conservative thumb-bite to sovereignty, but this morning I read that the Shadow Cabinet have allegedly been briefed to abstain on all of these votes and there may be a whip to follow.
https://ind.pn/2LhkVKQ

=== TWO YEARS AFTER THE VOTE, GOVERNMENT STILL HAVE NO BREXIT PLAN ===
There is still no coherent (let alone viable) plan for our Brexit negotiations that solves the government's "trilemma": leave the SM and CU but with no border between RoI and NI, and no border between NI and GB.
You have to give Bonkers Points™ to David Davis though for his suggestions which include a 10-mile wide 'border zone' between RoI & NI.

 

[Jasondb]

I get the impression with Brexit the Tories are hoping to get leverage by means of another country causing issues so we get an easy exit agreement; Poland, Austria and Hungary (immigration), Italy (Banks). Poland (Court sovereignty).
If this is their plan it is a dangerous one.

 

[Mr D]

I get the impression with Brexit the Tories are hoping to get leverage by means of another country causing issues so we get an easy exit agreement; Poland, Austria and Hungary (immigration), Italy (Banks). Poland (Court sovereignty).
If this is their plan it is a dangerous one.

28 parliaments / governments agreeing on a deal that causes 27 of them to either have to pay more or receive less money?
What are the odds that one or two may disagree?

Our own parliament are on the face of it unlikely to agree simply because they weren't the ones negotiating it.
I've no clue what the Labour position is at any one time, I know the Conservatives have differences about the position even within the cabinet.
About the only party I'm fairly sure the MPs agree on Brexit is the Green Party.

 

[Cobby]

UPDATE: David Davis threatens to quit because Theresa May refuses to timetable the implementation of a policy that Davis has yet to come up with, and, in all probability, can't actually find a solution to at all.


And Brexiteers think it's "Remoaners not getting behind Britain" that is undermining the UK's 'negotiating' position

 

[Gecko001]

About the only party I'm fairly sure the MPs agree on Brexit is the Green Party.

You can be certain that all Green Party MP's agree on Brexit. There is only one Green Party MP.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

== HEAD BREXIT CHEERLEADER RECANTS: ADMITS IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A SUCCESS ==
Nigel "I'm not racist but" Farage, has spent a lifetime claiming that we'd be much better off outside the EU.


He now admits that leaving the EU will not leave us better off and that he never said Brexit would be a success.
https://bit.ly/2xMgYfn (LBC radio, 29 May).

The head cheerleader of the Leave movement and he is back-pedalling from his previous rhetoric like mad. I mean, it's really not a surprise that he was wrong, just that he'd get so close to admitting it.

=== FIGURE-HEAD FOR BREXIT ADMITS HE DIDN'T WANT BREXIT ===
Daniel Hannan, who, prior to the referendum, famously argued that Brexit didn't mean "leaving the single market", and afterwards spent a lot of energy denying he'd meant that, now admits he expected a 52/48 result would simply be leverage to get more concessions while remaining within the EU.
https://twitter.com/EenVandaag/status/1003677539980664832

I saw this coming a mile away.

In the referendum campaign the figureheads were whipped up into a frenzy, and without thinking it through properly, started claiming everything they could imagine to sway people towards voting leave.

In some respects, this was down to emotions getting the better of people (which, in fairness, happened on both sides). In other respects, it was simply because they didn't think Brexit would happen, so they could say what they liked and would never be proved right or wrong.

Not only did they claim that leaving the EU would be good for the country, many of them painted it as a paradise where all of the UK's woes would be solved. Jobs, housing, immigration, the NHS, education - they'd all be so much better, and we'd all have more money in our pockets to boot.

Now though, they've won, and reality is starting to set in. It's not that they believe Brexit will be a disaster. It's that they know it won't be anywhere near as great as they claimed it would be, even if it is successful.

Immigration will barely change, the economy will take a whack, and the Government will ultimately end up with less money than it had before, at least for quite a while. Those who voted leave in the poorer regions of the UK are in for a shock, because there is nothing about leaving the EU, whatsoever, that would lend itself towards improving their lives.

Of course, there are some leave voters who see this coming and have always been prepared to take the hit in exchange for the benefits of political freedom. But plenty of people are expecting great things and will start asking questions when they don't happen.

 

[Gecko001]

I get the impression with Brexit the Tories are hoping to get leverage by means of another country causing issues so we get an easy exit agreement; Poland, Austria and Hungary (immigration), Italy (Banks). Poland (Court sovereignty).
If this is their plan it is a dangerous one.

I am not so sure if it is UK government minsters who are getting leverage, but business people in the UK talk to their counterparts in the 27 countries. They no doubt also talk to politicians in the 27 countries on an unofficial basis. That is where the leverage is. They have long ago left behind the hysterical Brexiteers and hysterical Remoaners to waffle among themselves and looking after their businesses interests.

 

[Mr D]

You can be certain that all Green Party MP's agree on Brexit. There is only one Green Party MP.

I'm only fairly sure because its the Greens. Other parties if they had just one MP I'd be certain.

 

[Mr D]

I am not so sure if it is UK government minsters who are getting leverage, but business people in the UK talk to their counterparts in the 27 countries. They no doubt also talk to politicians in the 27 countries on an unofficial basis. That is where the leverage is. They have long ago left behind the hysterical Brexiteers and hysterical Remoaners to waffle among themselves and looking after their businesses interests.

Of course they are looking after their business interests. Cannot trust the public to do it for them.
Though with us leaving next March there will already be companies looking to source parts within the EU rather than from UK. Whether we leave in March or not its likely supply chains will feel impacts.

 

[The Byre]

They have long left behind the hysterical Brexiteers and hysterical Remoaners to waffle among themselves.

As indeed have most sensible people!

The outcome is obvious - but nobody on either side is prepared for the obvious or even wants to mention the obvious. Just think about it for a moment - how can the UK 'honour' the outcome of that rather pointless referendum and at the same time, not crash the economy and simultaneously keep both sides of the Irish question happy?

But Brexit is already costing the UK economy dearly - as Carney (BoE) pointed out - £900 per household fall in GDP and rising!

The 55% requirement for EU sourced products means that cars being designed since the referendum are already excluding all UK parts. It takes about eight years to build a new car and this is done in close consultation with all parts manufacturers.

And it's not just cars. It can take a couple of years to get some certificates for components (try getting drinking water clearance just for the cables for a fresh water pump!) Just the technical hurdles required for some products, means that TODAY British components are off the table!

 

[Jasondb]

Bloomberg have an article today about German factory orders falling against expectations, no particular explanation yet it might if a trend develops help facilitate some concessions, well at least I am hoping so.

 

[Mr D]

Bloomberg have an article today about German factory orders falling against expectations, no particular explanation yet it might if a trend develops help facilitate some concessions, well at least I am hoping so.

Concessions? Or a rush to change suppliers away from UK?

 

[Gecko001]

The worrying thing about the recent car parts Brexit story is that even if the UK parts meet the EU regulations, manufacturers on the Continent using them post Brexit could find that the % of parts coming from non-EU countries is increased to such an extent that the cars are considered non-EU cars under international trading rules. Hence agreed very beneficial tariffs between the EU and the rest of the world might not apply.

 

[Jasondb]

Yes those people in the parts industry could well be losers if companies start moving processes before Brexit has even been finalised.

 

[Gecko001]

The losers will be car part manufacturers in the UK. The EU car manufacturers will not want to import car parts which are not of EU origin for fear of breaching international trading rules of origin. The UK will be a non-EU country after Brexit.

 

[Mr D]

Yes those people in the parts industry could well be losers if companies start moving processes before Brexit has even been finalised.

And they'd be fools if they waited until after Brexit has been finalised.
Remember we are leaving next March unless a later date is agreed by all governments. How long to arrange and put into place new tooling / facilities / orders?

 

[The Byre]

They are not using UK suppliers NOW. (See what I wrote above!) The pipeline from looking at a potential supplier, through to actually being able to use them is seldom a matter of months, but years. Pirelli in Berlin spent several years applying for drinking water safety certification for its confectioned cables and one of the stipulations to be considered as a strategically important supplier for many manufacturers is that you are in the EU.

You cannot just pick up the phone and say "We need a cable tree for our new model of Nissan!" and expect them to be able to deliver in a few months time! You consult with the manufacturer and then, when the whole thing has been priced and designed, a couple of years of testing for fire safety, behaviour under shorting, water testing, in-car testing, production of gasses when burning, etc., etc., etc. all have to take place.

That's just the cable - now lets start all that all over again for every brake pad, pipe, clamp, sensor, plastic bits, anything and everything.

Once a concept has been given the green light, it takes about eight years and one billion dollars to turn that into a production car - unless it is a major international launch, in which case, it is far, far longer and requires far, far more money.

You do not put that kind of investment in jeopardy by 'hoping' that the UK will remain in the single market. No, you dump ASL in Manchester like a hot brick and get on the phone to Bosch in Roumania - and you made that call as soon as the result of the referendum came out!

 

[Gecko001]

The UK parts industry will continue to make parts destined for the Continent with full EU regulation compliance as they have been doing over the las few decades and these will continue to be acceptable to EU car manufacturers as far as EU regulatory compliance is concerned for models now and in the future if the UK car parts manufacturers choose to follow the EU regulations. They can chose to follow them whether the UK is in the EU or out of it. However that is not what the recent Brexit story on car parts is about. It is about country of origin of the parts. See:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/970103/Brexit-news-EU-car-industry-Dutch-Europe-trade

 

[Cobby]

Now though, they've won, and reality is starting to set in. It's not that they believe Brexit will be a disaster. It's that they know it won't be anywhere near as great as they claimed it would be, even if it is successful.

It smacks of blind ideology. A thing they believed in - an end point in heaven, nirvana, paradise, etc. They know they want to get there but they don't know how. All they know is what they don't like, so blaming that (whatever it is) is their starting point. The rest is just them trying to draw the straightest line they can between the two.

I remember seeing a guy on a forum once asking for medical advice so he could argue with his doctor as he disagreed with her. He explained what he wanted and used the phrase "I don't understand it like she does but want to tell her she's wrong, please help."

But you can actually see that a lot. Remember the leaked WhatsApp conversation where Nadine Dorries (Tory/Leaver) had to ask several times what the Customs Union was and how it worked? She used the phrase "You have just convinced me what my gut always knew", although she'd been campaigning and arguing it for some time.

 

[Cobby]

The UK parts industry will continue to make parts destined for the Continent with full EU regulation compliance as they have been doing over the las few decades and these will continue to be acceptable to EU car manufacturers as far as EU regulatory compliance is concerned for models now and in the future if the UK car parts manufacturers choose to follow the EU regulations. They can chose to follow them whether the UK is in the EU or out of it. However that is not what the recent Brexit story on car parts is about. It is about country of origin of the parts. See:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/970103/Brexit-news-EU-car-industry-Dutch-Europe-trade

That's what I was saying and it's not only car parts, this effect will no doubt spread in similar forms through other sectors.

It's a sure fire route to job losses here and it's astonishing that Labour still push the "Jobs First Brexit" sound-bite like it's any different to May's "Red, White and Blue Brexit". Meaningless fantasy.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

The outcome is obvious - but nobody on either side is prepared for the obvious or even wants to mention the obvious. Just think about it for a moment - how can the UK 'honour' the outcome of that rather pointless referendum and at the same time, not crash the economy and simultaneously keep both sides of the Irish question happy?

Exactly.

Brexit really is a task that's impossible to do in a successful way - at least for the next decade or two.

With the Irish border, the ONLY way it has been able to remain open and frictionless between two different countries is because we are both in the customs union and single market. That's it. We may not have the peace agreement we have today if it wasn't for this factor allowing an open border to exist.

Now we're removing this factor, we are seeing how difficult it is to maintain customs integrity and keep every side happy.

When it comes to the economy, I've said it before and I'll say it again: you can't just dump out of the most frictionless and incentivised trade bloc on earth with GDP near that of the United States (the single market), and lose 60+ existing trade agreements, and expect to avoid any kind of economic damage. It's nonsense.

It's completely pulling the rug from under the 70% of the UK's international trade and disrupting the trade infrastructure we've taken decades to build.

To solve this, we aim to reach out with new trade agreements while the major economies are in the midst of a trade war. Avenues like the United States are not going to take down barriers while they're in the process of putting them up.

Meanwhile we see retail stores facing difficulties and closing across the UK with thousands of jobs at risk, in part because of the devaluation in the pound which has driven up the cost of imports.

Yes, exports have improved due to this, but that's going to be short lived when impending tariffs and quotas wipe out any gains.

I'm all for being patriotic and trying to put a positive spin on things, but this is the reality. Yes, we will leave, and yes, we will regain some aspects of control, but there will be a price to pay.

 

[Gecko001]

It is not true that there is presently an open and frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. For a start there are two different currencies ; pound sterling in Northern Ireland and the Euro in Republic of Ireland. Different rates of VAT, different rates of income taxes, different rates of corporation taxes. There is no open border for the respective armies and police forces. There is no open border for criminals and suspected criminals who must be extradited in the same way as a French person is extradited to Germany.

In fact the border between France and Germany is more open than the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as those two countries have the same currency, whereas NI and RoI have different currencies.

 

[Mr D]

It is not true that there is a presently a open and frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. For a start there are two different currencies ; pound sterling in Northern Ireland and the Euro in Republic of Ireland. Different rates of VAT, different rates of income taxes, different rates of corporation taxes. There is no open border for the respective armies and police forces. There is no open border for criminals and suspected criminals who must be extradited in the same way as a French person is extradited to Germany.

In fact the border between France and Germany is more open than the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as those two countries have the same currency.

Does the border currently make a lot of difference to the locals in Ireland and NI?

 

[The Byre]

In fact the border between France and Germany is more open than the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as those two countries have the same currency, whereas NI and RoI have different currencies.

No. They share currencies in the same way that all boarder regions have always done. You can pay in Euros in NI and in Pounds in the RoI, just as you used to be able to use Deutsche Mark everywhere in Strasbourg and Luxembourg. Every business has a separate cash desk and credit cards work all over the World.