Vaccine anyone?

[Justin Smith]

So is it serious or is it not?

It can be serious, but almost always for vulnerable groups, who are due to be vaccinated within months. For the rest, esp the youngest, it is not serious at all, for example, no child without a serious (I think they actually mean very serious) health condition has died from Covid. And, when I last checked, even children with very serious existing conditions, only half a dozen have died of Covid. Even that is tragic, but we have to put it into perspective, I'm pretty certain far more than 6 kids will have died from falls since March

 

[Mr D]

It can be serious, but almost always for vulnerable groups, who are due to be vaccinated within months. For the rest, esp the youngest, it is not serious at all, for example, no child without a serious (I think they actually mean very serious) health condition has died from Covid. And, when I last checked, even children with very serious existing conditions, only half a dozen have died of Covid. Even that is tragic, but we have to put it into perspective, I'm pretty certain far more than 6 kids will have died from falls since March

Its not just dying that is a factor.
You focus on that aspect but its one of the smaller aspects of the virus.

How about people being off work for a few weeks? How about businesses without half their experienced staff for a time?
How about hospital beds filling up? How about knock on effect on those of us waiting for routine medical investigation / treatment?

The more the virus spreads the more impact on society, on the NHS, on the very things you want to be able to do as you wish.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

We are, it seems, in a post rational age, logic has disappeared over the horizon .....

Your logic. Your reason.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/29/covid-theory-dangerous-health

 

[fisicx]

For the rest, esp the youngest, it is not serious at all, for example, no child without a serious (I think they actually mean very serious) health condition has died from Covid.

The number of deaths hasn't been a meaningful statistic for many months. The NHS has got a lot better at keeping people alive. This unfortunately means more an more beds are occupied - now higher than in the March peak. And of those surviving, the number with long term health issues is increasing.

So yes I agree for many, covid isn't serious. But that doesn't mean it's not a serious illness. Many of those with long covid weren't even on the vulnerable list.

 

[simon field]

. Many of those with long covid weren't even on the vulnerable list.

How many? And how many with ‘Long Covid’ have only mild lingering symptoms, ie a bit of a cough, loss of taste/smell, just a bit tired?

These would be the figures required to balance out the sensationalist media headlines - figures which would enable people to evaluate the risk and probability & make decisions for themselves.

There seems to be a general feeling that Long Covid is serious - when it is in fact serious for only a small minority.

 

[Mr D]

How many? And how many with ‘Long Covid’ have only mild lingering symptoms, ie a bit of a cough, loss of taste/smell, just a bit tired?

These would be the figures required to balance out the sensationalist media headlines - figures which would enable people to evaluate the risk and probability & make decisions for themselves.

There seems to be a general feeling that Long Covid is serious - when it is in fact serious for only a small minority.

And you cannot know its serious only for a small minority.
Could be serious for a lot more than you know. Or a lot less than I know.
We don't have the data because its not available to us.

 

[Aniela]

There seems to be a general feeling that Long Covid is serious - when it is in fact serious for only a small minority.

But we don't know that. Don't have enough data and haven't had enough time to come to that conclusion...

Where you're getting "it is in fact serious for only a small minority", I'll never know.

You keep talking about things like it's factual, when you're just pulling assumptions out of your backside.

You may be right, you may be wrong... but stop talking about it like a fact. Not even scientists, healthcare professionals etc know yet.

 

[anthony constantinou]

Its better to take precautions and work on immunity rather than just depending on vaccines

 

[Mr D]

Its better to take precautions and work on immunity rather than just depending on vaccines

Your choices appear to be vaccine or the virus.

Is a few decades of social distancing, masks, deep cleans, lockdowns, shielding, school closures, business closures etc a better option than a year or two of getting people vaccinated who want to be vaccinated????

 

[John Hemming]

We can now find out which parts of London have herd immunity and which don't
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ame=Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust

 

[Mr D]

We can now find out which parts of London have herd immunity and which don't
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust

No we cannot from that data.

We can find out how many patients are in the hospital with covid, how many admitted in latest daily total, patient total cumulative figure admitted with covid, patients on ventilation.

Nothing in that says where people are from and nothing about infection numbers.

 

[John Hemming]

No we cannot from that data.

We can find out how many patients are in the hospital with covid, how many admitted in latest daily total, patient total cumulative figure admitted with covid, patients on ventilation.

Nothing in that says where people are from and nothing about infection numbers.

Guys serve a particular geographical area as do most general trusts.

Generally a relatively reliable proportion of people who are infected go to hospital and about a quarter of those die.

Hence it states that this particular area had herd immunity back in April.

 

[Mr D]

Guys serve a particular geographical area as do most general trusts.

Generally a relatively reliable proportion of people who are infected go to hospital and about a quarter of those die.

Hence it states that this particular area had herd immunity back in April.

And those of us on the edge of a trust area can use resources from either trust.
Not to mention travellers, people staying with family and so on will skew the figures too.

Herd immunity? Wow so how how did that area achieve such an accomplishment so long before anywhere else in the world by probably at least a year?
What was their secret?

 

[John Hemming]

What was their secret?

Its no real secret. Its called "The Tube"

 

[Mr D]

Its no real secret. Its called "The Tube"

So when are they announcing to the world they have beaten all other areas by at least a year to achieve this herd immunity?

Why has no other trust copied this scheme to do herd immunity elsewhere?

Or is it simply you making it up?

 

[Justin Smith]

Your logic. Your reason.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/29/covid-theory-dangerous-health

Covid overwhelmingly impacts older people or those with serious existing health conditions.
It is they who should be doing everything possible to limit their contact with other people, particularly at the moment when this should be all over within 2 or 3 months, and less for those in vulnerable groups who should be vaccinated within a month or so. And the government should be doing everything within its power to help them self isolate, not spending billions on a useless track and trace system and then forcing vulnerable people to go to A&E, more on this further down.....
This crap about "we should treat everyone the same" and "we're all in this together" killed my own father. He died with Covid a couple of weeks ago. I admit he was 92 and was receiving palliative care for other issues at the time but Covid meant he left us earlier than he otherwise would have done.
My father has been self isolating since March but my sister had to take him to A&E and they both caught Covid there, she is certain of it as the dates all add up. But the point is that if they'd been putting all their resources into aggressively protecting the vulnerable he should never have had to go to A&E, a doctor would have come out to him. And if he, or some other very vulnerable person, had to go to A&E they should have had separate channels for vulnerable and everyone else. It could have been done, but that would mean they would then be a them and us system, which the government didn't want. But as far as Covid goes it is them and us, that is the fact of the matter. So their political correctness killed my father, that's what I truly believe.

 

[Justin Smith]

And you cannot know its serious only for a small minority.
Could be serious for a lot more than you know. Or a lot less than I know.
We don't have the data because its not available to us.

No it is, they now reckon it's 1 in 60 has "Long Covid" as defined by anyone with symptoms however mild after 3 months of infection.
I predict Long Covid will prove to have been a minor issue, numbers wise. We will see when the histories of this are written.

 

[Mr D]

No it is, they now reckon it's 1 in 60 has "Long Covid" as defined by anyone with symptoms however mild after 3 months of infection.
I predict Long Covid will prove to have been a minor issue, numbers wise. We will see when the histories of this are written.

1 in 60.
So in UK population that would be better part of a million adults eventually if everyone had the virus?
Rather problematic for the NHS? Certainly problems for those people.

For every million people getting the virus, over 16,000 long term effects people.

Aren't you glad people are getting immunised now!

 

[Mr D]

Covid overwhelmingly impacts older people or those with serious existing health conditions.
It is they who should be doing everything possible to limit their contact with other people, particularly at the moment when this should be all over within 2 or 3 months, and less for those in vulnerable groups who should be vaccinated within a month or so. And the government should be doing everything within its power to help them self isolate, not spending billions on a useless track and trace system and then forcing vulnerable people to go to A&E, more on this further down.....
This crap about "we should treat everyone the same" and "we're all in this together" killed my own father. He died with Covid a couple of weeks ago. I admit he was 92 and was receiving palliative care for other issues at the time but Covid meant he left us earlier than he otherwise would have done.
My father has been self isolating since March but my sister had to take him to A&E and they both caught Covid there, she is certain of it as the dates all add up. But the point is that if they'd been putting all their resources into aggressively protecting the vulnerable he should never have had to go to A&E, a doctor would have come out to him. And if he, or some other very vulnerable person, had to go to A&E they should have had separate channels for vulnerable and everyone else. It could have been done, but that would mean they would then be a them and us system, which the government didn't want. But as far as Covid goes it is them and us, that is the fact of the matter. So their political correctness killed my father, that's what I truly believe.

Yes yes - these people are already shielding. How do you suggest shielding them more than they have already been doing?????

2 or 3 months? Be longer than that to get some of the first lot of people injected to have the 2nd injection!

We won't get all the population immunised any time soon. There simply isn't enough vaccine going to be available.

Your father has been self isolating since March, mine started in January.
Probably both would like to do what they want again.
Its not happening soon. Summer or later to get 2nd injection for some. Heck, later than that for the non urgent non essential worker youngsters.

 

[Justin Smith]

1 in 60.
So in UK population that would be better part of a million adults eventually if everyone had the virus?
Rather problematic for the NHS? Certainly problems for those people.

For every million people getting the virus, over 16,000 long term effects people.

Aren't you glad people are getting immunised now!

How long term and how debilitating though, that is the question.

On this we can certainly agree :
Aren't you glad people are getting immunised now?

 

[Justin Smith]

Yes yes - these people are already shielding. How do you suggest shielding them more than they have already been doing?????

2 or 3 months? Be longer than that to get some of the first lot of people injected to have the 2nd injection!

We won't get all the population immunised any time soon. There simply isn't enough vaccine going to be available.

Your father has been self isolating since March, mine started in January.
Probably both would like to do what they want again.
Its not happening soon. Summer or later to get 2nd injection for some. Heck, later than that for the non urgent non essential worker youngsters.

I thought they said the second injection was more about how long the protection lasted ?
In fact some "experts" on the radio were saying generally vaccine's effects lasted longer if there was a bigger gap between the 1st and 2nd dose.

What's so sad about my Dad is he lasted 9 months, he only missed the vaccine by perhaps a few weeks..... I don't know how much longer he'd have lived anyway, hopefully months, but he could at least have had some real "normal" time with his family.

 

[Mr D]

How long term and how debilitating though, that is the question.

On this we can certainly agree :
Aren't you glad people are getting immunised now?

No one knows.

However some of those with ME got it from viral infection - and can last years / decades.
Not saying this is ME - far as I know its a couple of years too soon to find it from this virus yet. Could be some of what we call long covid turns out to be ME. But no way of knowing at this very early stage.

We'll know more in about 5 years. What we know at the moment is that some of those with long covid have it lasting to date.
Impacting their ability to do what they would like. Impacting productivity, employment, leisure, childcare etc.

 

[Mr D]

I thought they said the second injection was more about how long the protection lasted ?
In fact some "experts" on the radio were saying generally vaccine's effects lasted longer if there was a bigger gap between the 1st and 2nd dose.

What's so sad about my Dad is he lasted 9 months, he only missed the vaccine by perhaps a few weeks..... I don't know how much longer he'd have lived anyway, hopefully months, but he could at least have had some real "normal" time with his family.

Not sure what studies have been done about the timescale.
From what I've read - bearing in mind they are providing a narrative - the first injection gives some protection.

It becomes a political decision to use limited number of vaccine doses to cover twice the number of people at some level versus instead a number of people at higher level.

I'm looking around April for my first dose unless I jump the queue on grounds other than health.

Would not surprise me if the priority details change multiple times before summer.

 

[DontAsk]

This crap about "we should treat everyone the same" and "we're all in this together" killed my own father. He died with Covid a couple of weeks ago. I admit he was 92 and was receiving palliative care for other issues at the time but Covid meant he left us earlier than he otherwise would have done.
My father has been self isolating since March but my sister had to take him to A&E and they both caught Covid there, she is certain of it as the dates all add up.

This may sound harsh but you simply cannot prove that he would not have caught something else and died even sooner had he not been self isolating.

You can't build policy on one outcome, no matter how personal and emotive.

 

[Justin Smith]

This may sound harsh but you simply cannot prove that he would not have caught something else and died even sooner had he not been self isolating.

You can't build policy on one outcome, no matter how personal and emotive.

I am fully aware he was dying anyway hard as that was to accept, and he'd had a bloody good and long life the lucky sod ! But he almost certainly caught Covid at A&E which he should never have been required to go to, and, going by his symptoms, it was the Covid that actually did for him in the end.

 

[gpietersz]

It becomes a political decision to use limited number of vaccine doses to cover twice the number of people at some level versus instead a number of people at higher level.

Agreed. Another factor is which has the greater immediate effect on the R number. If a single does is more than 50% effective its definitely the latter.

Would not surprise me if the priority details change multiple times before summer.

One serious omission are essential workers outside health and care, especially those who come into contact with many other people or are known to be at high risk: bus drivers, shop workers etc.

 

[Mr D]

Agreed. Another factor is which has the greater immediate effect on the R number. If a single does is more than 50% effective its definitely the latter.




One serious omission are essential workers outside health and care, especially those who come into contact with many other people or are known to be at high risk: bus drivers, shop workers etc.

Yep, though adding all the essential key workers in delays other people by say 10 million places.... and I fully agree that some workers do need to be covered if they wish.

Always knock on effects.

 

[gpietersz]

@Mr D agreed, but they should be on their somewhere. Given that they are both at risk and likely spreaders they should arguably have a similar priority to health and social care workers (there was a study that showed bus drivers and those in some other blue collar occupations were at higher risk than doctors and nurses).

Another approach would be to move them up from where they are now: so, a 55 year old key worker would get moved up to the same level as 65 year old who is not one.

 

[Mr D]

@Mr D agreed, but they should be on their somewhere. Given that they are both at risk and likely spreaders they should arguably have a similar priority to health and social care workers (there was a study that showed bus drivers and those in some other blue collar occupations were at higher risk than doctors and nurses).

Another approach would be to move them up from where they are now: so, a 55 year old key worker would get moved up to the same level as 65 year old who is not one.

Whatever method there will be millions left at risk.

A police officer is essential - but if he takes a bus to work then surely the bus driver is equally as essential as is the person cleaning the bus every night.

Eventually you can end up with a bigger number of people that should have priority for vaccination than the number who don't have priority.

Or even end up like the claims regarding austerity, over 100% of the population were hit hardest by that if all the claims are added up.

Regardless of what you and I want the odds are most of us will have to wait months to get any vaccine at all.

 

[gpietersz]

Eventually you can end up with a bigger number of people that should have priority for vaccination than the number who don't have priority.

That is not a problem, because there are groups within priority. We could have 15 or 20 priority groups covering the entire population with the last group containing those at the lowest risk.

When we are at the point where everyone the (current) priority groups have been offered the vaccine, why not extend it so, for example, a 40 year old takes priority over a (healthy) 20 year old?

I am in the lowest priority group, and would be quite happy to move further down so key workers can have the vaccine.

Regardless of what you and I want the odds are most of us will have to wait months to get any vaccine at all.

Definitely, but with high risk groups getting it first we are going to get a lot of benefits (much lower death and hospitalisation rates) very soon. Its also possible that we can greatly loosen restrictions and still keep R below 1, but the spread of the new infectious variant threatens that (otherwise it would be a near certainty)

 

[Newchodge]

I am in the lowest priority group, and would be quite happy to move further down so key workers can have the vaccine.

I think I know what you mean, but how do you move below lowest?

 

[gpietersz]

I think I know what you mean, but how do you move below lowest?

Add more groups above the lowest or increase the number of people in the higher groups.

 

[Mr D]

I would also add caregivers as a priority group.
Mum and dad become sick it can be problematic dealing with the children.

Just my half pence worth of adding to priority.

 

[Clodbuster]

I think I know what you mean, but how do you move below lowest?

 

[Justin Smith]

I read that Israel has already vaccinated 12% of its population, so its death rate in about 3 weeks will reveal a lot. Assuming they're vaccinating the most vulnerable first (which I'm pretty sure they will be) I would expect their death rate to be way down within about 3 weeks.
Time will tell.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55514243

 

[fisicx]

I read that Israel has already vaccinated 12% of its population, so its death rate in about 3 weeks will reveal a lot. Assuming they're vaccinating the most vulnerable first (which I'm pretty sure they will be) I would expect their death rate to be way down within about 3 weeks.
Time will tell.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55514243

You keep banging on about death rates. The number of deaths is of far less importance. Hospitals are now very good at keeping people alive, it’s those with long term complications that are a more important statistic.

If you read the article you will see they are not prioritising the most vulnerable.

 

[Justin Smith]

You keep banging on about death rates. The number of deaths is of far less importance. Hospitals are now very good at keeping people alive, it’s those with long term complications that are a more important statistic.

If you read the article you will see they are not prioritising the most vulnerable.

Not sure where you got that :

Israel began vaccinations on 19 December and is delivering jabs to about 150,000 people a day, with priority given to the over-60s, health workers and people who are clinically vulnerable.

As for your point about long term complications, after they over egged the "Long Covid" thing I am not inclined to believe much of what they say. Having said that the vaccines are reputed to eliminate serious illness, not just death, with nearly 100% effectiveness.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I read that Israel has already vaccinated 12% of its population, so its death rate in about 3 weeks will reveal a lot. Assuming they're vaccinating the most vulnerable first (which I'm pretty sure they will be) I would expect their death rate to be way down within about 3 weeks.

Not sure how that works. All the old and vulnerable people I know have been shielding since March so have an almost zero chance of catching Covid. Vaccinating them first will surely make little difference to the infection figures.

 

[Jeff FV]

Not sure how that works. All the old and vulnerable people I know have been shielding since March so have an almost zero chance of catching Covid. Vaccinating them first will surely make little difference to the infection figures.

Rob Eastaway (a maths educator) wrote a really thought provoking blog the other day, about who should be vaccinated first. He offers no answers, but identifies 6 different groups, and presents a reason why each should be the first to be vaccinated.

It’s only about a 3 minute read, I do recommend you all take a look at it and think what you decisions you would make.

https://robeastaway.com/blog/vaccination

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Rob Eastaway (a maths educator) wrote a really thought provoking blog the other day, about who should be vaccinated first. He offers no answers, but identifies 6 different groups, and presents a reason why each should be the first to be vaccinated.

It’s only about a 3 minute read, I do recommend you all take a look at it and think what you decisions you would make.

https://robeastaway.com/blog/vaccination

Mathematical solutions do not work with this government.

From the vaccine queue calculator. The date range was 21/12/2020 to 14/1/2021 when they started so they have slipped 3 months already. This is for an 80 year old.

Your vaccine queue results

Based on your profile, there are between 503,378 and 4,384,545 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your two doses of vaccine and be fully protected by between 04/04/2021 and 28/05/2021.

‍ Use advanced mode to change the vaccination rate and uptake of the vaccine.