Omicron could be the Covid end game.....
- Thread starter Justin Smith
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It’s genetics. @Justin Smith doesn't understand which is why he has got it wrong (again). Your genes determine susceptibility to certain diseases. Different races have different susceptibilities. It maybe that we react differently to omicron to those in South Africa.
Science not hearsay.
Science not hearsay.
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- Original Poster
- #244
You have not read my post have you ?You expect him to come round and sort out your PC?
It is not "my PC", the bug is on three different machines, on two different browsers, using two different Windows (7 and 10) and at two different sites using two different broadband connections. It can only a bug on the software on the site. Though I'm sure it's quite convenient for Ozzy and Fisicx though, making it more difficult for me to argue with them I mean.....
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- Original Poster
- #245
Genetics do of course have a big influence, but not, as far as I'm aware at population level. There are populations which seem less susceptible to Covid in Asia, but the most likely reason for that is previous exposure to SARS. The fact that, apparently, the Astra Zeneca vaccine may well give longer term protection to serious illness from Covid is linked to that :
Interesting article in yesterday's Times and will, apparently, be in todayss Telegraph. Quoting Dr Clive Dix, former chairman of the Vaccine Task Force :
Essentially UK deaths flat whereas European deaths rocketing.
He credits it with UKs rapid rollout of Astra Zenica vaccine. This is a modified virus not RNA vaccine. Says it doesn't stop infection but gives you cellular immunity that enables the body to sort the virus before it does the damage. He also says the effect lasts years, possibly for life.
In contrast in the European Union smeared the Aastrazenica and used the mRNA vaccines instead. While they give a rapid jump in antibodies in lab tests they don't give cellular immunity.
Says the lab testing of vaccines has been flawed because it has concentrated on antibodies not T-Cell effects *over time*.
Thinks the mRNAs are good as a short term booster in a crisis but not so much as a "main course" vaccine.
You have made your position clear, I am wrong about Omicron being the end of Covid, and (most of) the experts (and you, obviously) are right. Well, we will see won't we ?
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@Justin Smith not saying you are wrong. Just saying you cherry pick the articles you reference. Sometimes you will be right. Statistically that will always happen.
You also mention deaths. This is misleading as all countries have got better at keeping people alive. This unfortunately has the knock on effect of tying up hospital beds.
Like most of the UK I have accepted that we have to change how we live. The burden is very small. You seem to be constantly fighting everything without actually doing anything about it. If you feel things are wrong what actions have you taken? I’ve asked you this before but you conveniently ignore the question.
You also mention deaths. This is misleading as all countries have got better at keeping people alive. This unfortunately has the knock on effect of tying up hospital beds.
Like most of the UK I have accepted that we have to change how we live. The burden is very small. You seem to be constantly fighting everything without actually doing anything about it. If you feel things are wrong what actions have you taken? I’ve asked you this before but you conveniently ignore the question.
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Working fine for me on windows as it is for many others. Maybe a local cache issue on your network or ISP.
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What’s wrong with the NHS?
Is it happening on some kind of massive scale up & down the country? Or just isolated cases?
When people have car accidents and end up dead or permanently injured, do you consider stopping driving just in case it happens to you/someone you collide with?
No.
What you’re hearing is what makes the headlines. Misery sells!
Is it happening on some kind of massive scale up & down the country? Or just isolated cases?
When people have car accidents and end up dead or permanently injured, do you consider stopping driving just in case it happens to you/someone you collide with?
No.
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Oh come on please, surely you’re cleverer than that?500,000 deaths over two years if we did nothing.
Fact check: claim about Neil Ferguson’s Covid-19 predictions
[sc name=”FFS”] Among those who are sceptical about the impact of Covid-19, scientists advising the government on policy have become a target of criticism. One of the more high-profile people to face scrutiny is Professor Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College...theferret.scot
When was there ever going to be a scenario where we ‘did nothing’?
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Right at the very start. There was a short period when we carried on as normal. Then people started getting I’ll.
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- Original Poster
- #252
Hello Fiscx, Justin Here.
I have set up a temporary account "CheckUp" and it works absolutely fine on UK Business Forums on the same networks.
There is a bug associated with my original account, the question is how many other people's account does it also affect ? How can it only affect my account ? And how come Ozzy, whose website this is, seems unconcerned, that's the thing I really don't understand. If it was my site I'd want to be getting to the bottom of it PRONTO.
Just a reminder, I get the following error message (which I do not remember seeing anywhere else) :
"Oops we ran into some problems. Please try again later. More error details may be in the browser console"
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- Original Poster
- #253
There was never the remotest chance that everyone would carry on completely as normal so "modeling" fo that was misleading to pout it VERY mildly.
As an example, the w/e BEFORE "the three week lockdown to flatten the curve" we had arranged to visit an elderly relative living in her own home near Kiddermister and another in a home near Thornbury.
The Aunt living in her own home had already decided to self isolate, and the care home near Thornbury had already banned visitors. Not that it did them any good because they ended up getting Covid through there a month or so later anyway. And my 90 year old aunt had Covid asymptomatically !
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It was a headline, it was a simple journalist interview with a nurse in an ICU
It was one nurse's story, but it's repeated across the UK, that's why it's a relevant story; a human face on the statistics.
It makes me a little more careful - for a while, but then I understand relative risk.
COVID is a far, far greater risk to me than driving at the moment.
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- Original Poster
- #255
Are you sure about that ?
Have you been vaccinated, possibly triple vaccinated ?
Are you aware that Omicron has halved (very possibly much more than halved) your risk of serious illness and death from Covid ?
Covid deaths rare among fully vaccinated - ONS (13 Sept 21)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58545548
Out of more than 51,000 Covid deaths in England between January and July 2021, only 256 occurred after two doses.
They were mostly people at very high risk from illness from Covid-19.
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THAT'S WHAT THE PAPER PROJECTED THOUGH! NUMEROUS SCENARIOS, INCLUDING "DO NOTHING"
HOW MANY MORE TIMES MUST THIS BE SAID BEFORE YOU PEOPLE STOP QUOTING IT OUT OF CONTEXT?
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They're the 90% of people over 12yo that are vaccinated. Sadly that still leaves a few million that aren't.
Yes, they repeatedly say that because of the success of the vaccination regime, only a very few people will now end up in ICU and they will be less ill for less time than those unvaccinated. No-one from this government can answer any question at all without saying it. And, of course, the scientists say it regularly too.
Have you missed it?
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You may have noticed there's a fairly big annual event going on around us where people take time off work and chill with friends and family. I've been doing the same and I wouldn't call one of my developers back into work under our emergency outage protocol because of a little intermittent issue on the forum. There's only very few issues I would do that.
They return to work on the 4th January, and I see you've dropped a support ticket into our system so they'll pick that up when they're back in.
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- Original Poster
- #262
@Justin Smith[/USER] not saying you are wrong. Just saying you cherry pick the articles you reference. Sometimes you will be right. Statistically that will always happen
Ahh, when I'm right it's fluke, when I'm wrong it's my ignorance. Just so I understand.
Is that the same for these experts ? Like Jenny Harries (UK health chief Head of UK Health Security) who said :
Omicron likely biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far
And that was as late as the 15th Dec !
This unfortunately has the knock on effect of tying up hospital beds.
Omicron results in shorter hospital stays.
Like most of the UK I have accepted that we have to change how we live. The burden is very small.
It is for some people, and them being critical of others to whom the burden is much larger is hypocritical.
You seem to be constantly fighting everything without actually doing anything about it. If you feel things are wrong what actions have you taken? I’ve asked you this before but you conveniently ignore the question.
Essentially I have little power to fight this tidal wave of scaremongering, I do my best, including a huge sign on my shop (I can do that at no risk because 95% of our T/O is mail order sales) and talking on radio phone ins incl R4 actually ! I wrote to my MP a few times and she actually voted against putting off Freedom Day in June, and was one of the 100 Tory rebels against irrational vaccine passports.
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As said before the PCR test is like going to a casino and betting on red or black. Question now is if PCR test went into actual covid statistics. <<link removed>>
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Erm, do you have any other source from that, other than one bullshit website?
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Here's an article on that website you're referencing, btw...
thewalrus.ca
Now, off you go and find a nice padded room, and I'll send round some tin foil for a new hat for you.
Why Google Has a Responsibility to Fight Fake News | The Walrus
Google gives a platform to sites that deal in outright lies and innuendo—and that’s a problem
thewalrus.ca
Now, off you go and find a nice padded room, and I'll send round some tin foil for a new hat for you.
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It's worth noting that the owner of that website, Michel Chossudovsky, is well documented as a conspiracy theorist and feeder of false propaganda .
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Who have mostly had the initial full vaccination and been given a booster. That is more than enough to offset having an older population. We have 90% with at least one jab, 82% fully vaccinated and 57% (heavily skewed towards older people) who have had a booster.
What are the infaction and hospitalisation rates for older South Africans who have been fully vaccinated?
So far in the UK its mostly unvaccinated people in hospital with covid. A lot of them are anti-vaxxers - evolution in action. There are a lot of "incidental" covid cases where people who have tested positive are in hospital for something else.
Cases in South Africa are falling, and cases in London (which has low vaccination rates), cases in Lodon seem to have peaked https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...e_change_in_7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date , and even in London hospital admissions have flattened and the number of patients in mechanical ventilator beds is no higher than in early September: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London and has hardly grown at all over the last few weeks.
Genetic differences within human "races" (which are mostly a social construct rather than biological reality) are far greater than between races. In fact even genetically similar groups cross races. Human beings a lot less genetially diverse than species such as chimpnses.
Obviously some genes, such as for dark skin are very definitely assocaited with races, and some are strongly correlated with race but in a complex way (e.g. lactose tolerance).
So far in the UK and the US black people have done worse than white people with covid, so if there is a racial correlation you would expect South Africa to do worse.
In fact I do think that there may be a racial component, in that dark skins leave us more vulnerable to vitamin D definciency. I am generally sceptical about diet supplements, but in the case of vitamin D, but in the British climate, unless you are white AND spend a lot of time outdoors then you should take vitamin D supplements (or eat a lot of liver and and other vitamin D rich foods).
However, I still think culture and demographics are more important.
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- Original Poster
- #271
I have been doing a bit of research on this :
While the risk of dying in a road accident in any year in the UK approaches 1 in 20,000, the lifetime risk is 1 in 240.
(bandolier.org)
Covid deaths rare among fully vaccinated - ONS (13 Sept 21)
Out of more than 51,000 Covid deaths in England between January and July 2021, only 256 occurred after two doses.
They were mostly people at very high risk from illness from Covid-19.
(BBC news)
So, assuming you are double vaccinated (though it's more likely you're actually triple vaccinated), and we now have Omicron which is between 2X and 5X less deadly, I think you are wrong.
I think you are at more risk of dying in car accident than from Covid.
Edited 10 minutes ago by Justin Smith
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Not entirely. A lot of unvaccinated people get asymptomatic covid or mild symptoms - a high proportion had mild or no symptoms even before we had vaccines. That will be all the more so now with a largely vaccinated population and a mild variant being dominant.
Things are much better than they were this time last year.
I think both sides of this aregument are somewhat guilty of that. I do think Justin is right that the media are scaremongering, with a bias to bad news.
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Unfortunately more recent data doesn't show the vaccine to be as good.
4,500 double jabbed people have died in England after contracting Covid
Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that up to September 34,474 people who were unvaccinated and 4,479 people who were fully vaccinated died with Covid-19 this year
Hence the need for booster jabs.
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Why do you specifically say "I can do that at no risk because 95% of our T/O is mail order sales", as if your message you are spreading poses a risk to your business?
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If @Justin Smith isn't repaired to risk anything, it does suggest a lack of commitment to the cause.
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Well @NickGrogan ; I have been accused of censoring or over moderating on here if what is posted isn't aligned to my opinion (by Justin). Yet when I read that comment it stops me in my tracks and makes me think, well it's alright to use my company resources and money and "risk" my business ... ???
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That article is a great example of bad journalism. It is pretty mucha copy and paste of articles in The Mirror and Wales Online. Not exactly primary sources.
According to the numbers quoted people who have been double jabbed were one fifth as likely to die as unvaccinated.
As the ONS quote in that article says of these numbers:
"While the ASMRs provide evidence that vaccinated individuals have a lower risk of dying of coronavirus (COVID-19) than unvaccinated individuals, they cannot be used to determine vaccine effectiveness.
"This is because the populations in each vaccine status group are likely to differ in ways other than population size and age because of the selective roll out of the vaccination programme and differences in vaccine uptake."
Also, from the latest ONS data:
"Over the whole period (1 January to 31 October 2021), the age-adjusted risk of deaths involving COVID-19 was 96% lower in people who had received a second dose at least 21 days ago compared with unvaccinated people."
Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England - Office for National Statistics
Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status; deaths occurring between 1 January and 31 October 2021 in England.
www.ons.gov.uk
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Deaths are about a tenth of what they were in January, with three times the number infected.
There are fewer than a thousand deaths a week, which is already similar to the peak in a bad winter flu season. That is enough to infer that if you are vaccinated, especially if you have had a booster, you are less likely to die of covid than of flu. Its not just that they work, they have hugely reduced risk.
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