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Is the Retail Future Bright...or Dark?

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thetiger2015

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Aug 29, 2015
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I was going to place this in eCommerce but think Retail is a slightly better fit, as it crosses in to B&M too.

How does the future look for British retail in general? Whether that be high street or internet?

Looking at the latest news stories, it appears very doom and gloom. MultiYork are on the brink, BrightHouse, Toys r Us are on the brink, Sainsburys and Tesco (plus eBay??) are cutting jobs in the thousands across the UK.

Apparently it's the fastest rate of job cuts since 2008 according to The Independent.

There are some big names announcing increases in jobs and new store openings but I'm always sceptical of those, as they rarely seem to be based on organic growth and they're more related to those companies grabbing some fresh investment or taking out a huge loan to increase retail space and thus footfall, in the hope of shifting stock faster to bring the wholesale price down a little and raise their margins.

I know of two companies in our sector that are likely to flat line in January, if they have a bad Christmas. They've opened a couple of shops to try and clear their warehouses quicker but if it doesn't work, the loan repayments will outstrip the income and they'll be dead in the water.

I'm just curious about the general trend. Is the retail sector remaining steady or is it slowly falling in to a hell hole?
 
If a few companies are in trouble and reduce their market share or shut down, their buyers will have to look elsewhere for the goods / services.
Making other businesses stronger or providing additional gaps in the market that smaller businesses can utilise to start up or grow. If toys r us shut down will other toy retailers have a better year next year without the competition?

Some growth, some shrinkage. The retail figures so far this year appear to point towards a bad year in general though of course with so many businesses some will do well and some badly in any year. Hopefully not the same businesses doing badly every year. :)

It does appear we have a couple of different issues affecting things this year that we haven't had in previous years. Brexit (with probably both positive and negative impacts). Universal credit rollout (to a much lesser degree).
 
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I think B&M retail as we know it is on the brink of a very big change.

I think the likes of convenience stores, in general are safe, but the big boys are about to be bitten on the backside with Amazon being the proverbial attacker.

I envisage staff-less stores in the not so distant future with an atm style hole in the wall where you simply enter a catalogue number or product code for instance, pay for your goods and they are then picked by robot and delivered to a door beside the terminal.

The future of retail is bright for retailers but retail workers will be staring into the abyss very soon.
 
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UrbanRetail said:
I think B&M retail as we know it is on the brink of a very big change.

I think the likes of convenience stores, in general are safe, but the big boys are about to be bitten on the backside with Amazon being the proverbial attacker.

I envisage staff-less stores in the not so distant future with an atm style hole in the wall where you simply enter a catalogue number or product code for instance, pay for your goods and they are then picked by robot and delivered to a door beside the terminal.

The future of retail is bright for retailers but retail workers will be staring into the abyss very soon.
Click to expand...

Bit like ordering at Argos? Order and pay, wait several minutes, collect from the counter and leave. Just without so many humans.
Or Mcdonalds, order at the screen and then sit and wait for your order to arrive.

The process exists, just need to remove the human cost.
 
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Retail is evolving.

In some sectors - such as fashion, for example, there is right now a huge over supply resulting is silly discounts. But that will correct itself, as brands disappear and adjust.

Right now, E commerce is rising, and it is alleged that this is creating problems for bricks and mortar retail. Yet I see innovative stores flourish.

I think the future for retail is much as the past. It is a tough, evolving gig, requiring sharp management, good cash flow controls, top buying skills, and some flair. But overall, the long term future for the top 50% of retailers remains largely unchanged.
 
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UrbanRetail said:
I think B&M retail as we know it is on the brink of a very big change.

I think the likes of convenience stores, in general are safe, but the big boys are about to be bitten on the backside with Amazon being the proverbial attacker.

I envisage staff-less stores in the not so distant future with an atm style hole in the wall where you simply enter a catalogue number or product code for instance, pay for your goods and they are then picked by robot and delivered to a door beside the terminal.

The future of retail is bright for retailers but retail workers will be staring into the abyss very soon.
Click to expand...


You are correct, of course, in your last sentence. And already it is happening. Certainly we employ fewer people per transaction than before - as most transactions are online, or very quickly completed with customers who visited specifically to buy something they had previously chosen online.
 
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Paul Norman said:
Retail is evolving.

In some sectors - such as fashion, for example, there is right now a huge over supply resulting is silly discounts. But that will correct itself, as brands disappear and adjust.

Right now, E commerce is rising, and it is alleged that this is creating problems for bricks and mortar retail. Yet I see innovative stores flourish.

I think the future for retail is much as the past. It is a tough, evolving gig, requiring sharp management, good cash flow controls, top buying skills, and some flair. But overall, the long term future for the top 50% of retailers remains largely unchanged.
Click to expand...


Ecommerce creating problems for bricks and mortar retail has been alleged for 22 years now.
Perhaps bricks and mortar have figured ways to fight back.
 
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People now are time challenged as well as many hit by negative pay rises over the years since crash. They do not want to drag themselves and their families around the sheds and shopping complexes that are in decline. But retail is constantly evolving. Online will become dominant but not exclusively so. Amazon of course overshadows the internet, certainly in the Western countries (they carry half a billion lines now!) so I do believe that shop based retail will continue to decline and more will close. Shop workers should be retraining in technology skills to be in continual employment in the years to come.
 
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Mr D said:
Ecommerce creating problems for bricks and mortar retail has been alleged for 22 years now.
Perhaps bricks and mortar have figured ways to fight back.
Click to expand...


I believe bricks and mortar is doing better than many think, and that ecommerce does not have the power to finally kill it. And it won't.

The internet itself is more and more, in reality, Amazon. And a number of important brands are saying no to that.

I do not anticipate the end of bricks and mortar for some time. If ever.
 
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I think B&M shops will concentrate in particular areas so that eventually some shopping locations will disappear and become residential, leisure or services and the remaining ones will strengthen.

The London Westfields, Bluewater and Brent Cross seem really busy still. High streets are very variable.

Tunbridge Wells, a once thriving shopping destination, for example looks as though it is dying - a huge number of empty shops - although the shopping centre has changed hands again and is due for redevelopment. Traffic and most definitely ever increasing parking charges are deterring people from visiting and the Council is extremely short sighted in this regard. As long as business rates are payable for empty properties, there is no incentive for the Council to promote the retail areas. If they were not getting income from empty shops, they would probably try much harder.

Conversely, I was in Staines yesterday and there are very few empty shops and there was a much larger footfall. It really looked as though it was thriving.

I was trying to think of the differences between the two centres and one factor is that the former is hilly and the latter is flat so you see a lot more people with pushchairs and wheelchairs about. And the parking charges are much cheaper in the latter. The former is choked with traffic and the latter is easily accessible. One is compact and the other is spread out.

I think only the convenient shopping locations which are supported at local authority level will survive.
 
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8 years ago when I joined the forum we were all told that shops were dead and the internet would take us over. Every year since we have been told how much the internet is rising and the B&M shops are dying. Yet we are still here and still refuse to play the "race to the bottom" that the internet so often becomes. What has happened is that many small internet Retailers have gone to the wall as the Amazon monster sucks the profit out of them. This year more than ever, we are having people telling us they don't trust the internet. Slowly the wheel is turning back to the days of good quality you can feel and the service people want.

Don't get me wrong, over that period we have closed three shops and it's been sad to see so many High Streets being taken over by barbers, coffee shops and charity shops but the quality we sell, the service we try to give, and the hard work we put into finding products that are difficult to sell on line means we are confident to sign another round of three year leases. I am under no illusions it won't be hard, and the government seem intent on making it harder for small employers, but we plod on- and our customers seem to appreciate it. - only 28 sleeps till Santa !

Edit - I lied, we have closed 4 shops in the last 8 years !
 
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I do think that it is crazy that the government is paying money to Amazon to build their warehouses, when they won't pay corporation tax, and tend to hire staff from abroad, while it destroys British jobs with Tax paying UK based companies who don't get money from the government.
 
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Sam Drury said:
I do think that it is crazy that the government is paying money to Amazon to build their warehouses, when they won't pay corporation tax, and tend to hire staff from abroad, while it destroys British jobs with Tax paying UK based companies who don't get money from the government.
Click to expand...

Amazon do pay corporation tax. Here. For amazon.co.uk ltd.
Just the bookshop in Luxembourg cannot be charged corporation tax here as it's not based here.
The same way that you yourself do not pay Corporation tax personally on your wages. It's not payable.
The good news is that British companies selling in the EU from UK bases also do not get to pay part of their corporation tax to the foreign countries. Not based there.

Do not know about hiring from abroad, around where I am they hire lots of local staff.
 
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Reactor said:
Drop ship furniture so you don't have to outlay the capital
Click to expand...

Ah the joy of returns, taxes, delivery costs, quality, delivery time etc.
I remember one guy was dropshipping furniture from China and the returns due to poor quality were expensive. He had to refund shipping both ways as well as item price.
 
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I think it's all about supply and demand. There will always be a demand for physical stores however this has decreased drastically over the past 20 years. We are seeing some companies suffering for this but eventually it will plateau IMO. Physical locations can be more cost efficient than E-commerce when you consider delivery costs.
 
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Alexander Sadlier said:
I think it's all about supply and demand. There will always be a demand for physical stores however this has decreased drastically over the past 20 years. We are seeing some companies suffering for this but eventually it will plateau IMO. Physical locations can be more cost efficient than E-commerce when you consider delivery costs.
Click to expand...

Yes if right by the physical location.

Went to pick up a present from Argos this afternoon. What with the drive there and the car park charges the item would have been cheaper to have delivered.
That was a 8 mile round trip.
Lots of places selling stuff I want are further away than that.

An item I am after for early next year is in Germany. I either ask a relative to get it and bring it next time they are over or nip and get it myself around 50 miles from where I plan on going.
Or can order it online with 5 euros shipping.
May well order that one as it's so cheap compared to hiring a car, travelling hundred mile round trip in a day and parking at location.
 
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I believe the answer is "it depends". The future for internet "retailers" in the UK like Amazon is bright--dare I say blindingly bright. However, shopping destinations like Tunbridge Wells appear to be on the downward trend. The retail industry is dynamic and unforgiving and those retailers that can't compete will be "naturally selected to die" I did find a quote from Warren Buffet back in May of 2017 regarding this topic where he said..............."I think retailing is just too tough for me, just generally," Buffett said. "We bought a department store in 1966, and I got my head handed to me. I've been in various things in retailing. ... I bought Tesco over in the UK and got my head handed to me. Retailing is very tough, and I think the online thing is hard to figure out." and this is from one of the richest people in the world.
 
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Interestingly Mothercare who had a bad retailing season now do 42% of their sales online

I am of the it all depends school of thought - though more and more will go to ecommecre

Hey how long before the retailers that are left charge suppliers to show their wares

Sounds daft ?

Supermarkets have been doing it for years

PS I realised some years back that B&M were going to undergo a sea change when I was in a store with an item in my hand to buy for an xmas present - and I thought stuff it I cannot be bothered to carry it around while I do other shopping I will order it online
Nothing to do with price etc
 
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I dont know about most industries but i do know about Vaping,
the industry as a whole does a lot online but most individual small companies who start this way to avoid the overheads of a B&M store struggle, some do make it big however with the right product selection and clever marketing, on the whole though i find that people prefer to visit an actual shop to see and hold the product (or Sample the liquid) before purchasing, and they like the safety of knowing that where they bought an item from is legitimate and not a scam site,
all of this means that any retail locations that are vacant due to online shops putting them out of business are being snapped up, so shops will still be there, they will just be different shops selling different products
 
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The next Carillion will be possibly in retail. Most of the large chains in the UK are just giant debt-bubbles, waiting to burst.
 
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A wise man once told me (about 15 years ago) we're all digital businesses now. I don't see any difference between an internet retailer and an in store retailer. Aren't they one in the same or at least they can be? The days of £10,000 expenditures to get started selling online are gone, this can be a big advantage to small retailers who were previously priced out of selling online.
 
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AirPOS CEO said:
A wise man once told me (about 15 years ago) we're all digital businesses now. I don't see any difference between an internet retailer and an in store retailer. Aren't they one in the same or at least they can be? The days of £10,000 expenditures to get started selling online are gone, this can be a big advantage to small retailers who were previously priced out of selling online.
Click to expand...

Its a pretty decent start to selling online. With that amount of money I could have an income of £60 a week and still grow the business.
 
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We predominantly see two types of retailer. The retailer who's been around for 10+ years and are thinking about selling online (and have thought about that for years typically without actually doing so) and the retailer born in the internet era who think that they absolutely must sell online in order to compete / survive.
 
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There are very few businesses I would now advise to start selling on line

The big thinning out has started and is ongoing

If people with knowledge and experience and rankings are giving up - then as a new comer you have to ask why - what are you going to offer that is different
 
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The future does not look bright for major high street stores .... any more.

Marks and Spencer, Homebase, will be following Toys-R-Us down the drain soon.

Soon all high streets will only be occupied by charity shops, hairdressers and Starbucks.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/closure-britains-high-street-stores-11843184

Online or bust is the only option left.
Unfortunately there will be thousands of minimum wage shop people on no wage at all.

I don't see any county councils offering to cut rates and taxes to help the stores
( and jobs ) survive.

.
 
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Yes perhaps the high street will only be occupied by those businesses providing a service or product the buyers want.
If charity shops, hairdressers and starbucks are all that's wanted then that's all that will remain on the high street. If other businesses find a need they can meet at a price the buyers want to pay....
 
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Hi all, I am new to the forums but I am currently in the final year of studying BA (hons) Business Management, I have chosen to do my dissertation study on the future of bricks and mortar retail stores, would you all mind spending 5 minutes completing my survey with your opinions please? It looks like because I'm new I cannot post the direct link so if you are happy to complete my survey please message me, thanks in advance!
 
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Hi all, I am new to the forums but I am currently in the final year of studying BA (hons) Business Management, I have chosen to do my dissertation study on the future of bricks and mortar retail stores, would you all mind spending 5 minutes completing my survey with your opinions please? It looks like because I'm new I cannot post the direct link so if you are happy to complete my survey please message me, thanks in advance!
 
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I can see the problem you are having, for some reason it's saying that my link is not recognised on Survey Planet - any other ideas on how I can post it?
 
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