How high will inflation go ?

[Paul Carmen]

Regards cars, I'm not sure that a significant reduction in used prices is ever going to happen. If there is a correction, its more likely to be small/gradual and largely soaked up by BOE base rates staying low and GBP currency deflation.

The UK was always cheap for used cars compared to the EU, plus, the lack of used cars in the market now is driven by low build numbers for 2020 and 2021.

October 2021 was the worst month for 30 years for new car sales due to build availability. This low build quota is now predicted to continue into at least early 2023:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58721085, due to chip shortages.

This drives a knock on impact for used availability for at least another 18-36 months, as new, nearly new and then older used volumes will be extremely low for this extended period. With used car prices predicted to keep rising gradually in this period, at least until new car manufacturing gets back on track for a sustained period of time.

The other thing to keep in mind is the noise from the car industry suggests it won't really ever get back on track in the same way in the UK; e.g. pre registering far too many UK cars, lots of low spec high volume models etc.

More and more production is being switched to higher end models, based on better new lead times being offered for these, and more production capacity is going electric. Plus all the manufacturers have realigned new car pricing upwards to make much better per unit margins and deal with inflation. Once this pricing shift happens, although volume production may go up again at some point, actual unit pricing is very unlikely to go back down.

With October, November and December traditionally seeing drops in used car pricing, as demand suffers post summer, before recovering in Jan sale time, we've just not seen this happen in 2021. October showed a decent rise and even November to date posted a flat performance/small rise: https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/pub...-prices-as-boom-shows-signs-of-slowing/243974

This all means you may lose some money in real terms due to inflation over a 2 to 4 year period, but, in actual pound note value you're unlikely to take a bath buying now, and many are predicting you'll actually pay even more for a used car in the next couple of years.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

High is the inflation level answer, with a gradual reduction in inflation over a few years being likely, with the real value of money reducing significantly over that time.

Far too little attention is paid to exchange rates. The pound is no longer the stable currency some wish for. Try negotiating supplies from China, Taiwan, Korea etc in Sterling compared to Dollars or Euro. Even before the Brexit shambles when rates were fairly even I was being quoted 12% extra for Sterling payments. This is on orders worth around £50,000.

 

[Justin Smith]

How is people not going to Creswell Craggs hurting the economy? It's hurting Creswell Craggs, whatever that is. But the money will just be spent elsewhere.

That's not how the economy works. Consumption / productivity makes the cake bigger.

I am not suggesting that Creswell Craggs being unable to run their tours with a full number of people is a significant drag on the economy. But if they're doing it then it's good bet thousands of other businesses are as well, and it all adds up. Worst for continuing to enforce "Covid limits" will be organisations linked to the public sector bodies, they are infamous for their H&S overkill. As an example few weeks ago Doncaster museum were also limiting numbers in their galleries are as well.

 

[NickGrogan]

An increase in the working population or in productivity makes the economy bigger.

Spending at particular businesses doesn't. As an example, Debenhams closed down. Did this lead to a decrease in spending on clothes, or did all their customers just shop elsewhere?

If the money is spent elsewhere, the economic effect is more or less the same. If the money is saved, that this increases the amount available for investment, which also boosts the economy.

 

[Justin Smith]

An increase in the working population or in productivity makes the economy bigger.

Spending at particular businesses doesn't. As an example, Debenhams closed down. Did this lead to a decrease in spending on clothes, or did all their customers just shop elsewhere?

If the money is spent elsewhere, the economic effect is more or less the same. If the money is saved, that this increases the amount available for investment, which also boosts the economy.

That's partly what I said. In the example of the "Covid" restricted cave tours at Creswell, if they had their normal numbers "about 24", that's FOUR times more productive than limiting it to 6 people....

 

[gpietersz]

That's partly what I said. In the example of the "Covid" restricted cave tours at Creswell, if they had their normal numbers "about 24", that's FOUR times more productive than limiting it to 6 people

Good point.

Spending at particular businesses doesn't. As an example, Debenhams closed down. Did this lead to a decrease in spending on clothes, or did all their customers just shop elsewhere?

Debanhams but other shops can easily supply their customers. They were excess/underused capacity so closing does not significantly affect the productive capacity of the economy. Hopefully the space will be used by someone else and the staff will get othr jobs, thereby increasing the productive capactiy of the economy.

In the case of the cave tours they are reducing productive capacity. It is more like car manufacturers having to restrict output because they cannot get chips, and all the other effects of the supply chain issues. Assets are unused and people are not working.

 

[NickGrogan]

That's partly what I said. In the example of the "Covid" restricted cave tours at Creswell, if they had their normal numbers "about 24", that's FOUR times more productive than limiting it to 6 people....

They wouldn't be 4 times more productive, they'd be returning to normal production.

The money that would be spent at Creswell is being spent at other businesses, increasing their productivity, whilst decreasing Creswell. The net effect is almost zero on the regional and national economies.

 

[NickGrogan]

Hopefully the space will be used by someone else and the staff will get othr jobs, thereby increasing the productive capactiy of the economy.

No, returning the productive capacity back to the previous level, is not increasing it.

 

[Justin Smith]

1 - They wouldn't be 4 times more productive, they'd be returning to normal production.

2 - The money that would be spent at Creswell is being spent at other businesses, increasing their productivity, whilst decreasing Creswell. The net effect is almost zero on the regional and national economies.

Point 1 - You cannot have it both ways. If going back to 24 people on each tour is "going back to normal production" then limiting it to 6 people must be a massive cut in production.

Point 2 - This only works if you believe the economy is a zero sum game. Fortunately, it isn't.

 

[The Byre]

You may not have to worry about inflation if the stock markets around the world crash -

The so-called 'Buffett Indicator' shows that the markets are at nearly double fair value. When they correct (and as you can see, they always do) that could bring costs and prices down with a bang - unless, of course, we get stagflation.

Legendary hedge fund manager Jeff Grantham came out of hibernation earlier this year to warn of a 75% market crash. Other fund managers of similar status have been making the same noises. The obvious question is when will all this happen? All I can say is 'Fairly soon!'

As the average age of market traders being around 40 (if I remember rightly) they have never seen a major correction in their working lives - all they know is a long-term bull market with a few bumps along the way. And the fact that you can get wealthy by riding a bubble is not lost on anyone. Just get off the train before it crashes!

I really do not know what that means for SMEs and how it will affect them. We have had cheap money for so long, that 1970s levels of 20% base rates will wipe out anyone with more than minor debts. House prices will have to halve. If you have money saved up, I would be buying something of value that is under-valued today, i.e. gold and silver.

2022 will be the year everything changes - commodity prices will soar (battery metals in particular!) and therefore make the green revolution impossible to fulfill. All sorts of iconic modern technologies will dwindle to nothing - just as the VHS players, Hi-8 tape, the CD, the DVD and MySpace did in the past, so will Facebook, the EV, Kindle and a whole host of other dead-end tech products just start to sink quietly below the waves in 2022.

The completely bogus CPI measures will become subject to public ridicule (if they're not that already!) The US figure of 6% does not include food, energy, or house prices. The UK and other national figures are measured using ever-changing baskets of goods and services. Poland 7%, Germany 6% - all heavily manipulated to cover the basic truth that central banks everywhere have been reaching for the Magic Money Tree as an all-too-easy option.

My prediction for 2022 - The Year of Reckoning.

 

[Red Wood]

Almost every post you make on this forum @The Byre is interesting, well written with a sprinkle of spice. I enjoy them.

I believe there will be a reset, and when it happens, we will all be in the worlds biggest sinking ship that it wont really matter. Save for the 1% of course, they have the means to weather any storm.

 

[Justin Smith]

You may not have to worry about inflation if the stock markets around the world crash -

The so-called 'Buffett Indicator' shows that the markets are at nearly double fair value. When they correct (and as you can see, they always do) that could bring costs and prices down with a bang - unless, of course, we get stagflation.

Legendary hedge fund manager Jeff Grantham came out of hibernation earlier this year to warn of a 75% market crash. Other fund managers of similar status have been making the same noises. The obvious question is when will all this happen? All I can say is 'Fairly soon!'

As the average age of market traders being around 40 (if I remember rightly) they have never seen a major correction in their working lives - all they know is a long-term bull market with a few bumps along the way. And the fact that you can get wealthy by riding a bubble is not lost on anyone. Just get off the train before it crashes!

I really do not know what that means for SMEs and how it will affect them. We have had cheap money for so long, that 1970s levels of 20% base rates will wipe out anyone with more than minor debts. House prices will have to halve. If you have money saved up, I would be buying something of value that is under-valued today, i.e. gold and silver.

2022 will be the year everything changes - commodity prices will soar (battery metals in particular!) and therefore make the green revolution impossible to fulfill. All sorts of iconic modern technologies will dwindle to nothing - just as the VHS players, Hi-8 tape, the CD, the DVD and MySpace did in the past, so will Facebook, the EV, Kindle and a whole host of other dead-end tech products just start to sink quietly below the waves in 2022.

The completely bogus CPI measures will become subject to public ridicule (if they're not that already!) The US figure of 6% does not include food, energy, or house prices. The UK and other national figures are measured using ever-changing baskets of goods and services. Poland 7%, Germany 6% - all heavily manipulated to cover the basic truth that central banks everywhere have been reaching for the Magic Money Tree as an all-too-easy option.

My prediction for 2022 - The Year of Reckoning.

Very worrying.
The impossible question :
If cash savings are losing a fortune, you think the stock market will crash, and most people think house prices must come down in the not too distant future (particularly when they put up the interest rates)...... What should one do with ones savings ? ! ?

 

[Justin Smith]

Just got the Jan 22 price from my cable supplier, 18%.... And that is typical of the rises this year (albeit many suppliers put in two smaller rises over the past 12 months).
If the inflation rate is only 4% I do not believe it.

 

[Justin Smith]

Omicron raises uncertainty around inflation, says Powell
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59480099

The emergence of Omicron raises the uncertainty around inflation, the chair of the Federal Reserve has warned.
Rising rates of Covid, plus the new variant, pose new risks to the US economy, Jerome Powell told a Congressional committee.
However, the emergence of Omicron has shaken global markets, raising the prospect that restrictions on travel, social and economic activity could be extended further.

We cannot afford to keep doing this, forget Covid, we need to get society and the economy back to normal....

 

[UKSBD]

Having something new is perfect for all governments.

Covid rates are rising - Blame Omicron
Imposing more restrictions - Blame Omicron
Inflation is going up - Blame Omicron

These things were going to happen anyway, but now they have something to blame it on.

 

[The Byre]

Year on year, Sept '20 to Sept '21 - Houses went up by 10%. Food production costs went up by 13.5%. Farming input costs went up by 22%. Energy costs went up by 34%. Cars went up by 25%. Used cars went up by 30%. Laptops and TV sets went down in price.

So I suppose the ONS has weighted the basket with lots of laptops and TV sets, but left cane sugar out (up by 40%).

True inflation in the US is now 15% using an old basket (shadow-stats) and the inputs into that basket are mostly international. Trying to pretend that inflation is only 4% and claiming that it is 'transitory' is wearing very thin indeed.

The real problem is - What can governments and central banksters do about it?

1. Print even more money? That will, in the long run, will cause superinflation, followed by hyperinflation (50% per month). That was the mistake made by the Weimar Republik!

2. Put up base interest rates? That will cause many companies and homeowners to be unable to repay their debts. The UK government is now spending MORE on interest payments than on defense. Just where do you put interest rates if you want to tame 15-20% inflation?

3. Reduce the money supply? It's never been tried before, but nearly every economist is of the opinion that would certainly cause the economy to crash into a bout of severe stagnation.

My guess (wild guess here!) is -

4. Talk about raising interest rates, but do nothing. Then blame Omnicron when the stock markets crash.

We cannot afford to keep doing this, forget Covid, we need to get society and the economy back to normal....

Too late!

Having something new is perfect for all governments.
Covid rates are rising - Blame Omicron
Imposing more restrictions - Blame Omicron
Inflation is going up - Blame Omicron
These things were going to happen anyway, but now they have something to blame it on.

A spot-on analysis!

 

[fisicx]

We cannot afford to keep doing this, forget Covid, we need to get society and the economy back to normal....

At which point in time do you consider it to be normal? Even in December 2019 the world economies were in trouble.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

We cannot afford to keep doing this, forget Covid, we need to get society and the economy back to normal....

Wear a mask for the next 9 years and we'll be back to normal.

 

[Justin Smith]

Oh dear, again....

The Times 29 Nov 21 (p37)
Third of manufacturers close to "tipping point"
More than a third of manufacturers fear their businesses could be in peril from a piling up of pressures including debt, rising costs and *multiple hurdles to doing business as usual*.
The latest producer prices index showed input costs up 13%.

 

[Justin Smith]

At which point in time do you consider it to be normal? Even in December 2019 the world economies were in trouble.

My normal, economically, would be Dec 2019. Domestically Feb 2020.

 

[fisicx]

My normal, economically, would be Dec 2019. Domestically Feb 2020.

Ah, the point when economically things were already starting to fall to pieces. In any case it's never going to go back. The whole world has changed and it will continue to change. What you have right now is normality. Next year (when economies begin to collapse) it will be normal. Life as you knew it has gone and gone forever.

 

[IanSuth]

My normal, economically, would be Dec 2019. Domestically Feb 2020.

For a lot of companies you have to go a bit further back, late 2019 was a period of companies stockpiling inputs from overseas pre Brexit and holding off hiring decisions whilst they waited to see what would happen.

I would say spring 2019

 

[The Byre]

What should one do with ones savings ? ! ?

The possibilities are -

1. Gold and silver. (Silver is totally underpriced and both will always hold their value.)
2. Gold and silver miners. (Precious metal in the ground is often worth more than in the vault.)
3. Gold and silver junior miners, i.e. mines that have not come in yet. (Very, very speculative and you have to pick several mines very carefully, making sure that the main investors know what they are doing and have long records of success in safe areas such as the US, Canada and Australia.)
4. Battery metals. (A Swiss or Luxembourg index fund is probably a good way to go here.)
5. Spend it on stuff you always wanted!

(I'm doing 3, 4 and 5. I might do a number two as well!)

I regard all other assets as being dodgy. And at the moment, that includes property. But if house prices crash, a place in the country with good coms would be a good bet.

Remember that all those funds and anti-inflation linked funds and bonds and all those other High Street retail financial products are just different sides to the same foul box of products put out there by the banksters. If there is a total failure in the money markets, the UK High Street banking sector showed us in 2009-10 just how fragile (in debt and asset-poor!) they really are. (Only this time, there can be no bail-out, but the law now allows them to do a bail-in, i.e. take your money!)

The textbooks on investing tell us to diversify and then list rubbish like different types of stocks in different areas and mix with other financial products. If there is a stock market crash or the money markets fail (again!) then ALL types of assets get sold off.

REASON - low interest rates have meant that assets were largely bought with borrowed money, so good positions in profitable and/or equity-rich companies have to be sold to cover all those bogus positions in zombies.

 

[IanSuth]

What about lumber/forestry companies. They own land whose price is based upon it's economic output and that output is able to be used for energy production (wood pellets/bio ethanol) or housing/construction products

 

[The Byre]

What about lumber/forestry companies?

Good question!

In 2020, US lumber prices for construction went through the roof - as in X 4 or worse! With the lockdown, very few people were building and so the mills closed and therefore nobody was working the slopes. But then, when things eased up just a little, nobody had any timber and prices exploded.

So all the lumberjacks went back onto the slopes and the mills got going again - and prices crashed down to Planet Earth. Speculators who had bought lumber futures were wiped out!

I watched all that happen via a guy with a mill in Oregon. I didn't get involved, but just observing the market taught me two things -

1. Commodity markets can be bonkers volatile!
2. I know F-all about commodity markets.

I understand technology and what one needs to build those silly milk floats we are all supposed to be driving, but I know nothing about the workings of grain, meat, wool, timber, spong, or aardvark markets. I do know that if you are going to build millions of milk floats, you need nickel, cobalt and lithium, as well as gold, silver and copper.

 

[The Byre]

Very out of date (see heading) but it does allow one to compare the various economies. With inflation accelerating, annualised figures are becoming less relevant.

It must be pointed out that so-called 'core inflation' takes out food and fuel/energy costs (no, I don't know why either!) and uses rental equivalents for housing costs, instead of combining actual rental costs with house prices and mortgage costs. (Well, actually I do know why! Governments prefer core inflation because inflation strikes food and fuel faster and QE and interest rates affect house prices more or less directly!)

Turkey is further down the inflationary path and core inflation for November was 21%. Germany is now at 6% and the Eurozone is at 5.5%.

Turkey teaches us what the effects are of political intrigue, nepotism and a dogmatic belief in Modern Monetary Theory (keep interest rates low and keep visiting the old Money Tree) especially when combined with ineptitude.

Erdoğan believes that high interest rates cause high inflation, the exact opposite of conventional economic thinking and has insisted that he will keep rates low.

President Erdoğan blamed the lira’s troubles on foreigners sabotaging Turkey’s economy and claimed that the Turkish lira's decline was the work of a secret group of Americans, English, Dutch and "some Jewish families" who all want his administration to fail.

He believes lower rates will fight inflation, boost economic growth, power exports and create jobs. The president has dismissed three central bank governors who opposed his strange economic policies since 2019.

Having a lunatic in charge of the asylum did not just happen here and in Retardistan.

 

[Justin Smith]

Ah, the point when economically things were already starting to fall to pieces. In any case it's never going to go back. The whole world has changed and it will continue to change. What you have right now is normality. Next year (when economies begin to collapse) it will be normal. Life as you knew it has gone and gone forever.

I seem to remember you, and one or two others on here, were saying this early this year. Yet from July till a few days ago, we were fairly near normal. Not entirely, still too many irrational restrictions (travel hoops to jump through and some - mainly public sector - organisations still limiting stuff) but well on the way to normality. Or, to put it a different way, things were, until a few days ago, much much more normal than they were at the point you said "this is the new normal".
Omicron has shagged that but the positive side is that once Omicron has joined the other scariants in the bin marked "over reaction" people will hopefully think to themselves, we're sick of all these cries of wolf, and take no notice next time.

 

[WaveJumper]

Fill up your cars now before the Christmas break crude oil is hitting new highs in the markets today no sign of it falling back

 

[MBE2017]

In addition to filling up on fuel, I would recommend getting at least a weeks worth of cash in hand, atm machines and banking automation normally get hit around now, Nationwide had a days outage earlier this week.

 

[WaveJumper]

In addition to filling up on fuel, I would recommend getting at least a weeks worth of cash in hand, atm machines and banking automation normally get hit around now, Nationwide had a days outage earlier this week.

Your right there its the same story every year

 

[John Hemming]

Fill up your cars now before the Christmas break crude oil is hitting new highs in the markets today no sign of it falling back

I am confused by this. At the end of November Brent was around USD80 and is USD75.29 as I type.

 

[Justin Smith]

Inflation now at 6.2% (except it isn't we all know it's higher than that...), yet it's funny how almost everyone is blaming it on the Ukraine war. Did that start in early Nov last year than ?

(16 Nov 2021) I am very worried about inflation, I cannot emphasise how bad things are, every time I want to order stuff, esp stainless steel stuff, I have to get the latest rates from suppliers because the prices are going up so often, it's madness and very frustrating.
I was thinking of buying a newer car the other week till I saw second hand car prices are 20 to 30% higher than they normally would be....

I suspect Brexit has had an effect, but no where near the effects of the pandemic, or, more accurately what the government(s) have chosen to do to suppress it. They shut down, or slowed down (with all the rules on social distancing etc), much of the economy for months on end, and, at the same time, pumped billions and billions of pounds into it. If that is not a recipe for inflation disaster I do not know what is

Personally I think if we get away with inflation at only 5% I will be surprised (and disbelieving).

 

[Justin Smith]

Sorry, it's now officially 7.0%, and predicted to go to 10%, which is what a few of us said on here last year.....

 

[Ecommerce&MailOrderGuy]

What happens next though?
I am an importer bringing in goods from China (sorry, but everyone else is doing it and to be fair they are extremely reliable producing manufactured goods).

Ocean freight is still high.
Though now getting charged $11k for a forty foot high cube as opposed to $15-19k just two months ago.
Note: Shop around as many freight agents will still charge you $15k.

Chinese suppliers still increasing product costs by 6% (ie, on top of previous early-2022 price that was already up +10%)
Sterling has tanked. Had long forward contracts at 1.37 but now down to 1.23 (ouch).

Think 2022 will be tough but 2023 will be a lot harder.

2022 is weird as we're seeing a lot of competitor retailers discounting. Actually dropping prices to consumers despite the escalating costs. Suggest market panic as companies desperate for cashflow.

 

[Justin Smith]

What happens next though?
I am an importer bringing in goods from China (sorry, but everyone else is doing it and to be fair they are extremely reliable producing manufactured goods).

Ocean freight is still high.
Though now getting charged $11k for a forty foot high cube as opposed to $15-19k just two months ago.
Note: Shop around as many freight agents will still charge you $15k.

Chinese suppliers still increasing product costs by 6% (ie, on top of previous early-2022 price that was already up +10%)
Sterling has tanked. Had long forward contracts at 1.37 but now down to 1.23 (ouch).

Think 2022 will be tough but 2023 will be a lot harder.

2022 is weird as we're seeing a lot of competitor retailers discounting. Actually dropping prices to consumers despite the escalating costs. Suggest market panic as companies desperate for cashflow.

There is a lot of worry over China and what will happen with their Zero Covid policy as regards disrupting supply chains. TBH I really cannot see what they are hoping to gain from all of this, even if they do stamp out Omicron (which is unlikely) what are they going to do then ? Cut themselves off from the rest of the world forever ?
I think this is more about politics, they are an authoritarian state and must be seen to be able to do pretty much anything with their population "for the good of the people". But sooner or later the Emperor will be seen to have no clothes in this matter, it will be proved the Chinese communist party is not all powerful and they will then have planted a seed in the minds of the people.
Playing with fire, just like Putin.

 

[NickGrogan]

They'll claim inflation will be under 10%, so I'd expect a maximum of around 9.7, but probably lower.

The real rate is already well above that.

 

[Justin Smith]

UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9% as energy bills soar

UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9% as energy bills soar

UK inflation rises to its highest rate for 40 years in the year to April, jumping to 9% from 7%.

www.bbc.co.uk

Soon be at 10%, but, bearing in mind it would have got to that without the Ukraine war, how much higher will it go ?
I think the Beeb blaming it all on energy prices is ludicrous nonsense.

 

[MBE2017]

Very worrying.
The impossible question :
Z...... What should one do with ones savings ? ! ?

In addition to The Byers suggestions, having given this at least two minutes of thought, I would buy rental property. People will always need somewhere to live, a monthly income producing asset will be good, even if the value of the property goes down for a few years, the rental income will possibly keep increasing year on year.

 

[The Byre]

In addition to The Byers suggestions, having given this at least two minutes of thought, I would buy rental property. People will always need somewhere to live, a monthly income producing asset will be good, even if the value of the property goes down for a few years, the rental income will possibly keep increasing year on year.

If interest rates go up (and up they must go if the BoE is to get ahead of inflation) then house prices and rents must come down. The very rough rule of thumb is a 1% change in the base rate --> a 7% change in house prices.

What people still do not understand is that the party is over! Stocks, bonds, CDOs, MBS, house prices - well, pretty much all assets - are coming back down to Planet Earth. People are going to have to learn how to get real jobs making real things. And not pushing bits of paper around or selling cheap tat on eBay and Amazon.

 

[The Byre]

UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9% as energy bills soar

UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9% as energy bills soar

UK inflation rises to its highest rate for 40 years in the year to April, jumping to 9% from 7%.

www.bbc.co.uk

Soon be at 10%, but, bearing in mind it would have got to that without the Ukraine war, how much higher will it go ?
I think the Beeb blaming it all on energy prices is ludicrous nonsense.

RPI is officially at 11.1%. The real rate will be far higher - the ONS figures are massaged by the basket being constantly replaced with cheaper alternatives as people alter their purchasing habits to cope with higher prices.

We have had oil at over $100 between 2010 and 2014 without high inflation.

I was not in the UK for 27% inflation in 1975, so I missed all the fun! (Though I was bathing with a friend! Often!)

This government is making a bad situation far worse because -

1. It has been handing out BBLs and grants to people (like me!) who didn't need them and didn't do anything to stimulate the local economy. I bought capital goods like machines imported from China and Germany and let the rest sit in a bank account, doing nothing. That is typical.

2. The people who needed all that extra cash didn't get any - or very little. i.e. the poor. And the poor spend any extra cash almost immediately on things like food and heating that do boost the economy. The economic multiplier effect of the poor is many, many times greater than giving it to me to spend on imports (but thanks anyway!)

3. All that extra money came from QE and (unless the BoE reduces its balance sheet after the QE has happened) QE = inflation. First, it goes into asset prices like houses, land and stocks, but then it bleeds through onto the High Streets and onto the Interweb via eBay and Amazon and all the other online outlets. And the BoE, along with the Fed and the ECB, stared right into the headlights of that inflation truck, like deer that have never seen a vehicle before. "It's transitory!" Yer, like F it is! Here comes that truck - BANG!

4. Governments everywhere are still pushing the busted flush of The Green Agenda. And they are forming their geo-economic policies in accordance with a nutty 16-year-old schoolgirl and some lunatic called Derrick who glued his face to the M25. The results are a stop on fresh oil exploration, a stop to German use of nuclear power, more mining of brown coal (the dirtiest form of power imaginable!) and the pushing of milk floats that are far more polluting than Diesel or petrol cars - they just move that pollution to the Congo, Chile and the power stations. It also is resulting in valuable farmland being used to plant trees in order to harvest subsidies instead of food.