How high will inflation go ?

I an very worried about inflation, I cannot emphasise how bad things are, every time I want to order stuff, esp stainless steel stuff, I have to get the latest rates from suppliers because the prices are going up so often, it's madness and very frustrating.
I was thinking of buying a newer car the other week till I saw second hand car prices are 20 to 30% higher than they normally would be....

I suspect Brexit has had an effect, but no where near the effects of the pandemic, or, more accurately what the government(s) have chosen to do to suppress it. They shut down, or slowed down (with all the rules on social distancing etc), much of the economy for months on end, and, at the same time, pumped billions and billions of pounds into it. If that is not a recipe for inflation disaster I do not know what is

Personally I think if we get away with inflation at only 5% I will be surprised (and disbelieving).
 
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fisicx

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@The Byre will no doubt be along soon will the details but we could easily see inflation into double figures. I saw one report estimating 17%

Used car prices are high because there is a shortage exacerbated by the lack of chips for new cars.
 
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WaveJumper

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    Until world supply can catch back up with demand caused by this pandemic those suppling will make hay whilst the sun shines, just look at the shipping industry. And with the likes of China still completely in a mess (to put it politely) there will be a lot more pain to come and endusers / customers are going to have to get used to higher prices as costs are passed on.
     
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    Until world supply can catch back up with demand caused by this pandemic those suppling will make hay whilst the sun shines, just look at the shipping industry. And with the likes of China still completely in a mess (to put it politely) there will be a lot more pain to come and endusers / customers are going to have to get used to higher prices as costs are passed on.

    So how long do you think it'll take till the world wide supply chain gets over its Covid interruption ? And how high do you guess inflation will go ?
     
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    @The Byre will no doubt be along soon will the details but we could easily see inflation into double figures. I saw one report estimating 17%
    Used car prices are high because there is a shortage exacerbated by the lack of chips for new cars.

    10 to 17% ! That really is frightening, especially when ones savings are getting between 0 and 1.5% interest (depending on how long one wants to lock them in).....

    Used car prices are not unique, much of economy is in exactly the same boat, lack of supply and excess of demand.
     
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    I was thinking of buying a newer car the other week till I saw second hand car prices are 20 to 30% higher than they normally would be....

    I don't suppose anyone on here has any guess as to how long it'll be before second hand car prices return to sanity ? I could do with knowing because I'm debating how much money to spend on my present car, how long has it got to last me ? ! ?
     
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    gpietersz

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    10 to 17% ! That really is frightening, especially when ones savings are getting between 0 and 1.5% interest

    Good for people with net debt at locked in rates though! I think that is quite a high proportion of the population? Probably a good time to lock in rates on debt too (mortgages and credit cards at least).
     
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    NickGrogan

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    So how long do you think it'll take till the world wide supply chain gets over its Covid interruption ? And how high do you guess inflation will go ?

    What makes you think we'll get over it?

    As an example, Europe took 300 years to recover from the Black Death.
     
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    WaveJumper

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    The markets have already been reacting to recent data coming out of the ONS, FTSE has been pulling back with the expectation of a rate increase coming in December (buried no doubt government hope within the Christmas festivities) One of the key indicators they have been looking at are the employment figures and strength of the labour market since the ending of the furlough scheme.

    So expect an increase next month.
     
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    DontAsk

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    Two kg box of 'No Nonsense' powder filler from Screwfix has gone up 25% recently. I seem to be using a lot of it at the moment. Timber prices are through the roof, where I need it, LOL.

    Your personal inflation rate will almost certainly very greatly from the 'official' figure, unless you are a very boring 'average' person :)
     
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    Financial-Modeller

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    I don't suppose anyone on here has any guess as to how long it'll be before second hand car prices return to sanity ? I could do with knowing because I'm debating how much money to spend on my present car, how long has it got to last me ? ! ?

    Presumably, whilst the cost of the replacement car will be higher than it would have been historically, the value received for your current car will be, too.

    The cost to change may not be that different to that expected pre-Covid?
     
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    WaveJumper

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    Two kg box of 'No Nonsense' powder filler from Screwfix has gone up 25% recently. I seem to be using a lot of it at the moment. Timber prices are through the roof, where I need it, LOL.

    Your personal inflation rate will almost certainly very greatly from the 'official' figure, unless you are a very boring 'average' person :)
    My son was telling me only yesterday scaffold boards which they were buying at £7.00 are now over £27.00 each and the price of "longens are through the roof" if you can get them. I need to work out builder slang :)
     
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    John Hemming

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    I would not be surprised by double figures, but I perhaps would expect it to peak under 15%. The central bank's problem is that the economy is not used to material interest rates and those could easily cause more unemployment.

    What will happen, however, is that employees will look for some form of inflation increase of the order of inflation. For the small number of staff I have I will pay that as well (as will many other employers).
     
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    gpietersz

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    As an example, Europe took 300 years to recover from the Black Death.

    The Black death killed at least 30% of the population of Europe. Covid is not really comparable.

    It also left ordinary people better off because a labour shortage increased their wages. The decline in the economy was a result of a reduced population: per capita GDP increased during the black death: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/eri/bulletin/2010-11-1/broadberry
     
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    NickGrogan

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    What makes you think we'll get over it?

    As an example, Europe took 300 years to recover from the Black Death.

    With respect Covid was a long long way from the Black Death.
    But your point about if we'll ever get over it is valid.
    Many people may never get over being half scared to death by the government in its efforts to ensure compliance for its policies. IMO it was the biggest over reaction in the history of the world and we will be paying for it for years to come, I am certain most of this inflation is down to that over reaction.
    But as regards inflation, I can remember in the 70s when we had a drought and the price of potatoes went through the roof, the price of chips at our local chippy went up by some ridiculous amount. BUT, the price never came back down again even when the price of potatoes did. And that, when I was in my teens, was the start of my cynicism.....
    Having said that, there was only one chippy in our village, it'll be competition which brings prices back down.
     
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    NickGrogan

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    The Black death killed at least 30% of the population of Europe. Covid is not really comparable.

    It also left ordinary people better off because a labour shortage increased their wages. The decline in the economy was a result of a reduced population: per capita GDP increased during the black death: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/eri/bulletin/2010-11-1/broadberry

    It depends where you look, different countries had different effects.

    It also left ordinary people better off because a labour shortage increased their wages.

    Sounds familiar
     
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    NickGrogan

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    With respect Covid was a long long way from the Black Death.
    But your point about if we'll ever get over it is valid.
    Many people may never get over being half scared to death by the government in its efforts to ensure compliance fr its policies.
    And as regards inflation, I can remember in the 70s when we had a drought and the price of potatoes went through the roof, the price of chips at our local chippy went up by some ridiculous amount. BUT, the price never came back down again even when the price of potatoes did. And that, when I was in my teens, was the start of my cynicism.....
    Having said that, there was only one chippy in our village, it'll be competition which brings prices back down.

    In terms of deaths, I agree.

    In terms of disruption to supply chains, changes to people's behaviour, changes to the economy, etc maybe not be as different as it first appears.
     
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