I just came across this via Twitter:
http://www.brugesgroup.com/blog/import-excess-tax-a-brexit-game-changer
It's not an easy read and the concept is complex, but it does seem to me to present a viable solution to a lot of issues.
As Newchodge has pointed out, it's often regulations that are some of the most complex issues when it comes to trade agreements. And it's the alignment of regulations which has some of the largest impact on facilitating trade.
May's position on this is fairly logical. If we align with the EU on regulations (which we largely agree on anyway), we automatically align with 27 of our regional trade partners in one go. This would also include the majority of our top 20 largest trading partners, and any countries where the EU has already signed FTAs and will do in the future.
In my view, what this plan has done, and what a lot of pro-Brexit plans seem to do, is massively oversimplify the issue of trade deficits. There's this idea that if we export more than we import, then we win, and in the reverse situation, we lose.
What this fails to take into account is that imports can be integral parts of British business, particularly in our own manufacturing sector. And often, it's not a matter of choice. The UK cannot source everything internally. We don't even have the natural resources in a lot of cases, or even suitable weather in the case of perishable foodstuffs.
There's a lot of successful British businesses that require imports as part of their supply chain. Many resulting products are then exported back out or sold to consumers in the UK. Any forced attempt to penalise imports would therefore impact these two sectors massively.
This idea seems to take the extreme approach of:
1). Give the EU tariff-free access to the UK (which already exists)
2). Charge British businesses a tax if they import from the EU more than they export
3). Pay these tax revenues to British exporters to offset EU tariffs
Combine that with a fall in the Pound in the event of no-deal, and what do you think will happen to the many British businesses that rely on imports, and all the consumer prices for a huge selection of items in our shops and supermarkets?
And what about the exporters that rely on imports as part of their supply chain, of which there are many? The lower pound, and this suggested tax, could negatively offset any export savings or reimbursements from this plan, and then some.
This is, once again, an idea of inducing suffering on both sides, and then hoping that the EU blinks first.
Let me ask you this:
This proposal involves giving the EU tariff-free access and creating a tax in an attempt to force the EU to reciprocate with tariff-free terms. If this idea is so great, and if it works so well in our favour, why not just keep it? Why try to use it as a tool to give us tariff-free access to the EU when we can trundle along with this as a long-term solution instead?
The solution is proposed as an "FTA in all but name", but one that gives us "powerful leverage" in talks. If it's fantastic for the UK, but bad for the EU, why even have the talks? Just to be nice?