Vaccine Passports
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Coronaviruses tend to be seasonal. Covid's infectiousness is linked to the relative humidity of the air. Hence when people switch on the heating it hangs around in the air infecting people.
When the heating goes off again it becomes less infectious. That and the high level of infection is the primary reason for infections going down. The vaccination is helping, however, when the figure were last available for the balance of admissions the higher ages were still about the same proportion, perhaps a bit less which did not indicate that much of an effect from vaccination.
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When do people switch on the heating????
Some nice weather recently, then a couple of quite cold days and now today is a little chilly in the wind but otherwise quite nice.
Will people use heating today? Or rely on a fire? Or not have any heat on at the moment?
Not sure the virus knows it has to follow uk central heating policies.
Went a year without getting infected despite central heating. Have not had it since, despite central heating.
Perhaps not going near people who have the virus also has an impact?
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It is not so much proximity as breathing the same air. There was a good piece of research from china that looked at the spread of the virus through an air conditioning fan. There was also research from the US where someone was infected breathing air 5 minutes after another person.
Hence ideally if you want to catch the virus you will have little spots on which people stand to breathe out the virus so someone else can then stand there and breathe that in. They kindly have this sort of thing in supermarkets.
The relative humidity matters because the virus hangs around for longer in dryer air.
Most supermarkets have heating.
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At a point when most of the population (those who have been vaccinated and those who have had covid ) are immune, by the time a vaccination passport scheme is introduced we will either have herd immunity or be very close to it.
A single dose of the Astrazenneca vaccine does not reduce the spread of the virus, cuts transmission by 67% https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-0...stained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval
A single dose of the Astrazenneca vaccine does not reduce the spread of the virus, cuts transmission by 67% https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-0...stained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval
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I
Interestedobserver
Well we don't want to be letting people into the UK who aren't vaccinated IMO
And we want to motivate as many of the UK population who can be vaccinated to do so
So for me vaccine passports are a good idea
Equally foreign countries will not want to let UK population in without them
All makes sense to me
Why let a minority make it less safe for the rest of us?
Those who are not sure about vaccinating will still be able to choose not to do so and sacrifice travelingl abroad or doing some of the things that require a vaccine passport
Their loss IMO
I would understand us doing something else to help anyone out there for whom it's not safe to be vaccinated
But not people who just choose to not do it
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Relative humidity not absolute humidity. So all about the use of systems that reduce that eg heating.
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Yes - and how many places have you been in that don't have heating but do have customers / students?
So are these places traditionalist and only have heating on from 1st October to 1st April or are they places that are required to keep the working temperature at least 16C?
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I am not quite sure what you are getting at. I have explained from the medical research what the mechanism for the seasonality of Covid is thought to be. I know that people keep places warm. That reduces the relative humidity and makes covid hang around for longer.
I, however, have no desire to have the last word on this and hope you won't think I am being impolite if I don't respond further on this.
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Here in the UK we have requirements for indoor work places. Minimum temperatures - hence heating or cooling systems of some sort used all year.
The very places people are going and according to you have higher risk of infection.
Been in an air conditioned office in past few years? Relative humidity tends to be lower than outside (thank goodness!). Can use same system for heating, warm air - also relatively low humidity - used as either an air curtain or simply warming the place.
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Long Covid is exaggerated, and it certainly is not worth changing our whole society for. But don't just take my word for.
The original definition of Long Covid was anyone who still experienced symptoms however mild three months after infection. AFAIK the biggest study indicated it was about 1 in 50 to 1 in 60 who were covered by this definition.
BUT, it really isn't unusual to still have symptoms a few months after a serious viral infection, I have experienced this before with other viruses despite being very fit for my age. A friend of mine got Long Covid quite badly in Aporil but he is susceptible to stuff like that, he admitted he often has had relapses in his Chronic Fatigue Syndrome when he gets a viral infection, and that was before Covid.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid
Overall, the team found that while most people with COVID-19 reported being back to normal in 11 days or less, around one in seven (13.3%, 558 users) had symptoms lasting for at least 4 weeks (i.e. 87% had no symptoms after 4 weeks), with around one in 20 (4.5%, 189 users) staying ill for 8 weeks and one in fifty (2.3%, 95 users) suffering for longer than 12 weeks. (21 Oct 20)
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Absolute BS, because, err, we have vaccines which prevent serious illness very effectively.
It is a completely different game now, in fact it's so completely altered it's not even a game anymore.
Get with it, wake up and smell the coffee, it (should be) OVER.
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Relatively few people will be going into hospital with Covid, and certainly not enough to put the NHS under strain. I'll let you into a secret, the Covid death till would be going down soon anyway regardless of the vaccine, because it's, err, a respiratory illness, like flu, and is seasonal :
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Like its going down to zero in Europe right now? France Germany and Italy just announced new lockdowm measures! Evidence isnt backing your theory. This outbreak in Europe is mainly the result OF A NEW VARIANT, the very thing you said was "nothing to worry about"Relatively few people will be going into hospital with Covid, and certainly not enough to put the NHS under strain. I'll let you into a secret, the Covid death till would be going down soon anyway regardless of the vaccine, because it's, err, a respiratory illness, like flu, and is seasonal :
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You do need to consider the level of prior infection. A simple statistical proxy for this is the number of deaths per million population.
There are a lot of problems with the worldometers data, but they do produce a table of results for each country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You can click on the top of the column and it will order the table by the colum clicked.
The UK is 11th at 1861, Italy is just below and Germany is about half that rate.
Hence it is not surprising that Germany has a problem as the disease has not spread as much. Because of the seasonality linked to relative humidity the herd immunity threshold will go down and that will assist in those countries.
We do additionally have vaccination which is a good thing which reduces deaths and hospitalisations and also will add to herd immunity. However, at the end of the day most of the cause of the virus reducing to spread is prior infection by this coronavirus or another one.
In Texas all sorts of warnings were given to keep restrictions.
https://www.aier.org/article/why-is-everyone-in-texas-not-dying/
The number of deaths per day, however, continue to go down in Texas.
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I have just heard that the only restaurant in our village will not be reopening. A tragedy for the owner and staff, but very upsetting for many of the residents, it was great being able to go out for a meal and not have to drive home.
This pandemic has resulted in the biggest over reaction in the history of the world, and if that point was arguable before the vaccine, it certainly is not now.
Am I angry ? You bet your rear end I am.
This pandemic has resulted in the biggest over reaction in the history of the world, and if that point was arguable before the vaccine, it certainly is not now.
Am I angry ? You bet your rear end I am.
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I
Interestedobserver
So you think that restaurant had it stayed open during the pandemic people would have used it in enough numbers and it would have survived?
Whilst the NHS collapsed
Get real
You live in some sort of dreamworld Justin
Someone else will take over that restaurant if and when the public are ready to start eating there again in the numbers it requires to be viable
Ps get ready for counltess more pubs and restaurants to never re-open
They will have way too much debt theyve built up that they know they can't afford to repay
But new owners will take them over as people start going out again
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Interestedobserver
Ps how upset are the local residents ? Why have they allowed this "tragedy" to happen?
Or maybe they are happy to wait to see if the next owners of the restaurant are better than the existing ones?
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Interestedobserver
This guy doesn't have a high enough IQ be allowed to post on here IMO
He's out of his depth
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Interestedobserver
John Ive read an awful lot on the internet about seasonality of viruses in the last 12 months as I personally like to know what to expect next
Now even the experts in this field don't really know what causes viruses to wane in the summer and yet you claim to have it solved and have the answers
The experts conduct experiments - think they've nailed a reason and then another experiment comes along and shows something different
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...seases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19
If the experts can't put their finger on why viruses etc wane in the summer how come you can?
Some have even simplified it down to the fact people just spend more time outside when the weather is warmer
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I have been reading the research papers on this and that is how I personally would summarise the situation. It does tend to fit with the facts. This sort of research has been done for quite some time and is not just about Covid.
I don't have all the links to hand and am posting on this forum because I am reinstalling some software which will take a little time, but I need to go back to that. If you chase me some other time I will hunt up the relevant links. I don't have time for that now, however.
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Interestedobserver
John - Here's one part from my link:
"Even for well-known seasonal diseases, it’s not clear why they wax and wane during the calendar year. “It’s an absolute swine of a field,” says Andrew Loudon, a chronobiologist at the University of Manchester. Investigating a hypothesis over several seasons can take 2 or 3 years. “Postdocs can only get one experiment done and it can be a career killer,” Loudon says. The field is also plagued by confounding variables. “All kinds of things are seasonal, like Christmas shopping,” says epidemiologist Scott Dowell, who heads vaccine development and surveillance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and in 2001 wrote a widely cited perspective that inspired Martinez’s current study. And it’s easy to be misled by spurious correlations, Dowell says.
Despite the obstacles, researchers are testing a multitude of theories. Many focus on the relationships between the pathogen, the environment, and human behavior. Influenza, for example, might do better in winter because of factors such as humidity, temperature, people being closer together, or changes in diets and vitamin D levels. Martinez is studying another theory, which Dowell’s paper posited but didn’t test: The human immune system may change with the seasons, becoming more resistant or more susceptible to different infections based on how much light our bodies experience."
"Even for well-known seasonal diseases, it’s not clear why they wax and wane during the calendar year. “It’s an absolute swine of a field,” says Andrew Loudon, a chronobiologist at the University of Manchester. Investigating a hypothesis over several seasons can take 2 or 3 years. “Postdocs can only get one experiment done and it can be a career killer,” Loudon says. The field is also plagued by confounding variables. “All kinds of things are seasonal, like Christmas shopping,” says epidemiologist Scott Dowell, who heads vaccine development and surveillance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and in 2001 wrote a widely cited perspective that inspired Martinez’s current study. And it’s easy to be misled by spurious correlations, Dowell says.
Despite the obstacles, researchers are testing a multitude of theories. Many focus on the relationships between the pathogen, the environment, and human behavior. Influenza, for example, might do better in winter because of factors such as humidity, temperature, people being closer together, or changes in diets and vitamin D levels. Martinez is studying another theory, which Dowell’s paper posited but didn’t test: The human immune system may change with the seasons, becoming more resistant or more susceptible to different infections based on how much light our bodies experience."
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Interestedobserver
By "we" I assume you mean you, your wife and your kids?
Or you are speaking for your entire village now?
As we know you are in the small minority of UK when it comes to your outlook on Covid and lockdowns
I assume the same would apply that you are in the small minority in your village as well
I take it you've had takeaways from them every week to help them through this?
And why don't you and the village set up a crowdfunding page for them?
To help avoid the tragedy
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You really do not know what you sound like do you ?
PS the locals could not use the restaurant, because, errr, it had been shut by the government.
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Interestedobserver
Some of the best local restaurants I know have made more money doing deliveries with less costs than they make when they have to open their restaurants
I'm talking about the good ones with owners who can adapt
And I'm an expert in this field
A village with a single restaurant in it that has good owners should have actually flourished during lockdown
Trust me Justin
Some will not want lockdown to end
They also get to finish work 2 or 3 hours earlier and not have to clean up their restaurant and toilets at the end of the night
However, they do need the ability to adapt and to change
Something you yourself have never shown any inclination towards embracing
Maybe they were too like you?
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To help avoid the tragedy
This really speaks volumes, I assume you are being sarcastic. You are being sarcastic over someone losing the business they have built up over years and his 3 staff are all out of work.
As I said before, you really do not know how badly you come across, particularly to anyone who is not a suppression enthusiast.
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Interestedobserver
And here's another quote from the article John
As I say the experts themselves have been unable to simplify seasonality of diseases as simply as you. And the research contradicts itself time and time again
If they could nail why it happens they could really impact how we deal with illnesses better
It's way more than just talking about humidity John
And right now we have the added complication of multiple variants all of which will act differently in terms of seasonality?
"Beyond the urgent question of what to expect with COVID-19, knowing what limits or promotes infectious diseases during particular times of year could point to new ways to prevent or treat them. Understanding seasonality could also inform disease surveillance, predictions, and the timing of vaccination campaigns. “If we knew what suppressed influenza to summertime levels, that would be a lot more effective than any of the flu vaccines we have,” Dowell says."
Despite all the years of research they've never understood the seasonality of flu to date let alone even starting to understand the seasonality of Covid
As I say the experts themselves have been unable to simplify seasonality of diseases as simply as you. And the research contradicts itself time and time again
If they could nail why it happens they could really impact how we deal with illnesses better
It's way more than just talking about humidity John
And right now we have the added complication of multiple variants all of which will act differently in terms of seasonality?
"Beyond the urgent question of what to expect with COVID-19, knowing what limits or promotes infectious diseases during particular times of year could point to new ways to prevent or treat them. Understanding seasonality could also inform disease surveillance, predictions, and the timing of vaccination campaigns. “If we knew what suppressed influenza to summertime levels, that would be a lot more effective than any of the flu vaccines we have,” Dowell says."
Despite all the years of research they've never understood the seasonality of flu to date let alone even starting to understand the seasonality of Covid
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Interestedobserver
I was using your words
You've described it as a "tragedy"
Ive then questioned if it's such a "tragedy" to the village then why haven't you and the villagers given the restaurant the support it needed to survive
Whilst also questioning whether the owners had the ability to adapt
And pointing out the best restaurant owners in villages have flourished during lockdown and adapted
You like to create drama on here
I like to challenge you back
And won't let you get away with flowery stuff and false sympathy for others that I don't buy
If you care so much about this "tragedy'" (your words not mine) post me a link to the restaurant in question
Let's Google it together and take a look what they've done the last 12 months and how the village has supported them through this?
Let's analyse it. It's a business forum. It will be good to analyse what theyve done
Please post a link
Like I say - I also assume you've been having deliveries from them every week because you value them so much in your village?
You've not answered that yet?
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Boris & the Johncocks should fully compensate any business that’s been closed due to the government’s panicking, period.
How would they like it if they had a business & were blockaded from operating it by a bunch of frightened rabbits?
How would they like it if they had a business & were blockaded from operating it by a bunch of frightened rabbits?
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Interestedobserver
Ps I have sympathy for restaurant in cities and other locations not surviving this
I find it hard to have sympathy for the only restaurant in the village failing at this stage
Knowing what the huge opportunities there were for them to adapt
And knowing what others have done including myself
Just roll your sleeves up and adapt
And the village and even surrounding villages will support in their droves if what you offer is good quality and priced well
(Be interesting to see what the restaurant owner does next as well)
Maybe they are just shedding debt to start somehwere else
I find it hard to have sympathy for the only restaurant in the village failing at this stage
Knowing what the huge opportunities there were for them to adapt
And knowing what others have done including myself
Just roll your sleeves up and adapt
And the village and even surrounding villages will support in their droves if what you offer is good quality and priced well
(Be interesting to see what the restaurant owner does next as well)
Maybe they are just shedding debt to start somehwere else
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I don't think t6hat ia a fair analogy - you could clear a blockade of frightened rabbits by kicking them into the long grass. Sadly, with this government .......
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I don’t get involved too much in discussions like this. My post to like ratio is MILES above yours. What helpful, actionable advice have you given to members of this forum regarding business issues? Sweet FA. What are you even doing here aside from massaging your superiority complex?
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Interestedobserver
I don't like it when it gets political on here
Especially when the opposition to the current Government has complained all along that what the current Govt has done has not been tough enough on Covid
But we are a nation of complainers after all
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Interestedobserver
Once you start calling other posters weasels because you don't like their point of view you lose any right to debate IMO
You've already lost the argument and any higher ground you would like to try and take when you do that
Simple as that
And wow do you actually monitor your post to like ratio?
Bless your little cotton socks!
Lol
I've made sure I've liked your last post so it can get a bit higher for you and you can improve your stats
Do you have little graphs at home you record it all on?
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Correctly, we have to start imagining living with coronavirus, it cannot totally vanish but the thing is we need to be precautioned and ready to fight for it. And yes it would not be for the international route. I recently started taking healthy food supplements fromSalubritas UK which keeps my immunity boosted. They also deliver at home.
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