Err no.
All these people on here who think and say “he’s talking ballcox, underplaying this virus”. I’m saying this virus is burning itself out, my pet theory (but there may be another explanation) is a high proportion of the population is not susceptible to it and most of those who are have had it. Whatever the reason I’m convinced all these very expensive measures we’re taking are having a minimal, or even zero, effect. So please answer these points :
1 – Diamond Princess , a ship with 3800 people on it a lot of whom were older (passenger av age was around 70) where the very infectious virus was free to spread (with no social distancing and the normal social events) for two weeks to the 3rd Feb. Only 17% caught it and only 8 to 14 died, the numbers vary according to source (poss because some don’t include probably deaths from other causes ? ), but it certainly wasn't over hundred which one could have expected had the governments advice from its big expert (Neil Ferguson, OBE no less....) been correct.
It must be emphasised that the average age of the 2666 passengers was around 70, an age at which you are much more vulnerable to Covid.
2 – Our lockdown, the most draconian that could be introduced in a free democracy, was introduced on the 23rd Mar. For the first month or so it was quite well observed. The average time to die from catching the disease is 18 days. So if the lockdown was working we
could have expected a big fall off in in early to mid April, but it didn’t happen.
3 – As people became less strict about the lockdown (road traffic increased significantly)
we could have expected the death rate to go up, but it didn’t, it started going down. I’m not saying one caused the other I’m simply saying the lockdown was having a minimal effect on the death rate (but was having massively negative effect on society and the economy).
4 – We were told by “experts” that of we ease off the lockdown the death rate would go up, but it didn’t,
it actually continued to go down.
5 – We were told by some “experts” that reopening the schools would result in a “second spike”.
Not only was there no second spike the death rate actually continued to fall.
6 - No country in the world that has had deep exposure to this virus (as defined by a death rate of over 1 in 2000) has experienced a second spike as their lockdowns have been eased off.
In all of them the death rate has continued to fall. Belgium is the best example, their death rate is now on the floor.
7 - The total death rate
from all causes from mid June is now lower than the long term average. That wonderful piece of positive news should have been lead item on all news programmes, but wasn't. No big surprise there then.