Will your business be gone by 2020?

[Dot Design]

Think we've probably all seen or experienced the distruption to the Taxi industry caused by Uber, or the High Streets caused by out of town shopping centres.

There are lots of industries that have been distrupted by better technology in the last few years.

Accountants do you fear the increased use of more and more advanced software by businesses, worry you won't have a job in the future?

Designers, the software used by our industry is getting easier to use and cheaper. Whilst this can't replace good ideas and creative thinking, isn't it a worry, least a little bit? Amazon looking to replace (and in some place have already) it's workforce with robots.

Self driving cars, if they are a success (and it seems to me at some future point they will be) isn't that taxi drivers, truck drivers, delivery drivers plus lots of other industries out of a business?

There are alot of other industries currently that are being threatened by technology.

Are all of our businesses and industries going to be replaced by software and automation ultimately.

If so, how soon, 2020, 2030, it's not that far away really

 

[fisicx]

It's always been the case. 90% of businesses don't last past 10 years. A high percentage don't get past the first year.

HIgh streets however a coming back. Tesco has been sevely burnt with the out of town expansions and my wife (who knows this stuff) can see money coming back in the town centres. The hight street may not be the one you remember as a child but it's seeing a bit of a renewal if the local council is doing its job properly.

A business that adapts will survive, the one that don't will die. Saw an advert for ao.com where they are pushing the 'delivery when you are at home' thing. This is the sort of adaption that a business needs to adopt to survive. Robots and automation can only go so far.

 

[garyk]

A business that adapts will survive, the one that don't will die. Saw an advert for ao.com where they are pushing the 'delivery when you are at home' thing. This is the sort of adaption that a business needs to adopt to survive. Robots and automation can only go so far.

Agree it doesn't need radical changes just improvement shifts. I used to get lots of tech delivered 20-25 years ago and lived alone, net result; lots of trips to the post office and parcel depots to pick up items because I wasn't there. I was never going to be in mon-fri 9-5, the only time that all couriers operate, baffling! Quite scary that 25 years on the incumbents in this market have changed little but the supermarkets launched day 1 offering time and date delivery.

 

[DazRave]

You've aimed the thread title at if businesses will still be around, yet you've only given examples of how Jobs are at risk?

If there is no need for lorry drivers because lorries drive themselves, surely the transport company is still in business?

Personally, I feel it's employee's who need to open their eyes and realise some jobs are easily replaced by drones/robots/software etc therefore it's probably wise to start, i don't know, learning how to fix robots?

 

[MOIC]

As fisicx says, adaption is the key.

If a business is relying on moving forward with blinkers, they will eventually hit trouble.

Robots for sure will take over more jobs, but businesses will evolve.

Retail high streets can survive as long as the retailers have an online presence. Without one their chances are slim.

Good management is key.

 

[Urban Publications]

Self driving cars, if they are a success (and it seems to me at some future point they will be) isn't that taxi drivers, truck drivers, delivery drivers plus lots of other industries out of a business?

This is such a long way off, brake by wire has been around near on 20years and legislation is still against it becoming mainstream...all due to safety,, if you are a fan of F1 you will see that even the top gurus are still having problems with this system, even though the technology is there can you see any government letting a 20 tonne truck toddle off round the M25 under its own steam..not a chance

Like Fisicx mentioned "Tesco" who would of thought even 1 year ago that this company would be in the position they are now, perfect example of taking the eye off the ball and thinking the likes of Aldi and Lidl not to be a threat...they will certainly struggle in getting me back to shop with them.

One little trivial fact that always sticks in my head
70-80% of the things you will be using in 2024 have not even been invented yet,
so I am sure as one business closes another will open..unless of course like others have mentioned you adapt and embrace evolution/change

..

 

[DazRave]

This is such a long way off, brake by wire has been around near on 20years and legislation is still against it becoming mainstream...all due to safety,, if you are a fan of F1 you will see that even the top gurus are still having problems with this system, even though the technology is there can you see any government letting a 20 tonne truck toddle off round the M25 under its own steam..not a chance

I agree, although self driving car's might start appearing in the next 10 years, completely driverless cars won't. The 'self driving' parts will just be reserved for motorway driving and parking (I'm sure a car on the market can park itself already?).

When it comes to trucks, if i remember rightly there is a plan in the pipework to use 'land trains' like they do in america, really long trucks with multiple trailers attached. I presume something like that will be at least mostly automated with a single driver to over look it all.

 

[Urban Publications]

The 'self driving' parts will just be reserved for motorway driving and parking (I'm sure a car on the market can park itself already?).

Both these systems are already in use.

You also have to remember that peoples attitudes need to change for technology to advance, brake by wire is a fine example as it not only gives a totally different feel to the brake pedal it puts a niggle in the back of your head regarding safety

Toyota;s fly by wire accelerator pedal certainly upset their apple cart and cost them billions

 

[beasty]

The problem with the tech is people will take a long time to be convinced of it, decades not years
Stuff goes wrong, when that stuff weighs several tonnes and is moving at 70mph then there is a problem

SELF DRIVING CARS, surely the terrorists choice? just aim a car somewhere and pack it with explosives?

 

[DazRave]

The problem with the tech is people will take a long time to be convinced of it, decades not years
Stuff goes wrong, when that stuff weighs several tonnes and is moving at 70mph then there is a problem

SELF DRIVING CARS, surely the terrorists choice? just aim a car somewhere and pack it with explosives?

Although the DLR in London has been driverless for a while with no problems... i presume tracked vehicles will be first and foremost before any driverless road vehicles.

 

[Urban Publications]

Although the DLR in London has been driverless for a while with no problems..

Fail safe systems galore

 

[Philip Hoyle]

You also have to remember that peoples attitudes need to change for technology to advance, brake by wire is a fine example as it not only gives a totally different feel to the brake pedal it puts a niggle in the back of your head regarding safety

My OH has a car with an automatic handbrake powered by a tiny lever/switch. I hate it. Makes it far harder to do a hill start as you can't "feel" the balance as you release the handbrake at the same time as releasing the clutch. Also you can't actually release it manually at all, you have to physically move the car forward or backwards with the accellerator to release the handbrake. Our drive is on a steep slope - even the guy from the dealership who collects it for servicing (and must be used to them) has trouble getting it out of the drive and many times has nearly coasted back into the garage door. Never again - an old fashioned handbrake is an essential for next time.

 

[Urban Publications]

My OH has a car with an automatic handbrake powered by a tiny lever/switch. I hate it. .

Without trying to make your day, search for epb faults and see the problems/bad press VAG have had with their system, if they cant get it right for something simple to keep the car still then slowing the dam thing down is going to cause so many problems

 

[Hedgie]

I can't see delivery vans being unmanned. What happens when they get to someones house? Is the van going to knock on the door or go wandering up the street looking for a neighbour to take in a delivery

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

I have a plan yes we will be in business .
If the unmanned van is the new thing I will get them . If I cant afford them we will just have to get the old vans out of the brambles paint them up and drop the price as we will be finance free. Old vans maintained by me so no computer required !!!
Plan 2
The unmanned cars will crash a lot . I will buy a couple of old wreckers to recover them from the m5 and North Devon link road . I might also keep an old fire engine for when the new unmanned fire tenders go into safe mode

 

[Dot Design]

I can't see delivery vans being unmanned. What happens when they get to someones house? Is the van going to knock on the door or go wandering up the street looking for a neighbour to take in a delivery

We already get alerted by text when a parcel is about to be delivered from certain companies.
Potentially the alerts could just be more sophisticated, with a location given on your smartphone and a secure deployment of the parcel from the van. Either that or drones dropping them off. Either way less of a workforce involved in the process and more technology involved.

I'm not saying this is going to happen overtime, but bit by bit the processes will be refined until lower skilled jobs won't exist. In my view of course.

 

[beasty]

There is an impossible problem to solve

People can use unmanned vehicles as weapons, pack em with explosives send the van on a route through a nice busy place and kaboom

They may be capable of producing the vehicle but what you have produced would be described as the terrorists dream vehicle!

 

[Hedgie]

We already get alerted by text when a parcel is about to be delivered from certain companies.
Potentially the alerts could just be more sophisticated, with a location given on your smartphone and a secure deployment of the parcel from the van. Either that or drones dropping them off. Either way less of a workforce involved in the process and more technology involved.
.

Until the person getting the text is out or in the bath or whatever and the van arrives, no one collects the parcel and off goes the van with no deliver. Having done the home delivery courier work I can assure you there are a million reasons why that wont work. Human intervention is essential in that one

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

Although the DLR in London has been driverless for a while with no problems... i presume tracked vehicles will be first and foremost before any driverless road vehicles.

Until the person getting the text is out or in the bath or whatever and the van arrives, no one collects the parcel and off goes the van with no deliver. Having done the home delivery courier work I can assure you there are a million reasons why that wont work. Human intervention is essential in that one

Chuck it over the fence ..
Sorry I forgot there is no driver !!!

 

[Hedgie]

Chuck it over the fence ..
Sorry I forgot there is no driver !!!

Ha ha. Seen that happen many a time.

 

[DazRave]

People can use unmanned vehicles as weapons, pack em with explosives send the van on a route through a nice busy place and kaboom

To be honest Beasty, since terrorists don't mind blowing themselves up, I don't think unmanned vehicles will create extra risk. If anything, since there is no driver's seat, it would reduce terrorism?

Using better technology within vehicles, regardless of them being self-drive or not, is a massive safety improvement more than it is a risk.

 

[Lentinus]

"net result; lots of trips to the post office and parcel depots to pick up items because I wasn't there. I was never going to be in mon-fri 9-5, the only time that all couriers operate, baffling! Quite scary that 25 years on the incumbents in this market have changed little"

I have actually worked out a solution to this very thing, and the being in the bath when it arrives, and giving more security than a signature so sellers are protected. What I have not yet worked out is any way of implementing it so it can't be immediately ripped off by the likes of Amazon/ebay/UPS etc. Cant patent a system only a device!

​

 

[DazRave]

I have actually worked out a solution to this very thing, and the being in the bath when it arrives, and giving more security than a signature so sellers are protected. What I have not yet worked out is any way of implementing it so it can't be immediately ripped off by the likes of Amazon/ebay/UPS etc. Cant patent a system only a device!​

Oh really? Any way you can tell us more without giving the game away too much?

 

[Urban Publications]

Oh really? Any way you can tell us more without giving the game away too much?

When I read that I thought exactly the same thing, the only possible thing I could think of is like I think Hermes does it, have various retailers and local shops where they pick up the parcel but reversed so they get delivered there and a text message is sent to tell you its delivery status

I cannot possibly see any other way of a parcel being delivered securely when Im in the bath or out....unless I am missing something

 

[Hash and Bash]

Or you could install one of these secure delivery boxes
http://www.locktin.com/secure-home-delivery-locked-boxes/

 

[Urban Publications]

Or you could install one of these secure delivery boxes
http://www.locktin.com/secure-home-delivery-locked-boxes/

That looks like my Chimney. At 225 quid its cheaper to write a note to deliver next door

 

[DazRave]

Recent client of mine, Doddle, are trying to make a bit of an impact by allowing you to get deliveries to places you pass frequently (i.e. train stations).

http://www.doddle.it/

As for the secure delivery box, the solution has to be something everyone can use, so a high priced product that can't be used by houses with next to no front garden is never going to cut it, in my opinion. Doddle, in my opinion, have the right idea.

 

[Lentinus]

This is to do with the scenario that you have a safe place to leave the item or it can be put through your letter box - but won't be because the seller needs a/your signature. This accounts for a LOT of rural drop offs. (and probably people using those delivery boxes!).

 

[sirearl]

It is inevitable that many jobs will go to automation.

I believe the figure is that 7 out of 10 jobs are ripe for automation.

As for business I suspect only the larger ones that can afford the technology will survive.

http://www.wired.com/2012/12/ff-robots-will-take-our-jobs/all/

 

[DazRave]

This is to do with the scenario that you have a safe place to leave the item or it can be put through your letter box - but won't be because the seller needs a/your signature. This accounts for a LOT of rural drop offs. (and probably people using those delivery boxes!).

I don't really understand what you're trying to say?

 

[UKSBD]

Recent client of mine, Doddle, are trying to make a bit of an impact by allowing you to get deliveries to places you pass frequently (i.e. train stations).

I like the way John Lewis do it.
You order online and can have delivered to your local Waitrose where you can then just pick up at your leisure.

Collection hubs make far more sense to me if they are in places you visit or drive past anyway

 

[DazRave]

I like the way John Lewis do it.
You order online and can have delivered to your local Waitrose where you can then just pick up at your leisure.

Collection hubs make far more sense to me if they are in places you visit or drive past anyway

Doodle will probably start to become quite a well established company doing this then, one of the investors (to my knowledge) is the ex-boss of national rail and so he's been allowed to reuse a lot of derelict railway stations etc.

 

[David Griffiths]

Recent client of mine, Doddle, are trying to make a bit of an impact by allowing you to get deliveries to places you pass frequently (i.e. train stations).

.

The nearest one to me is Southampton, which they claim is 88 miles. As the crow (or jet more likely) flies perhaps but 130 in reality

Early days I presume but needs work

 

[DazRave]

The nearest one to me is Southampton, which they claim is 88 miles. As the crow (or jet more likely) flies perhaps but 130 in reality

Early days I presume but needs work

They are 'soft-launching' at the moment while they slowly increase the load on the system in place. I believe they have been given permission to use a great deal of empty station buildings around the country though, so yes, early days!

 

[Office Cleaning]

A slight aside, Peter Thiel (co-founder of paypal and loads of others) was talking about Uber and saw it as a logistics company, the taxi part being the initial stage. If you think of it those terms it is actually tremendously more powerful - matching all types of suppliers with consumers. He also then went on to say he had been having meetings with Wonga as he thinks the banking industry is ripe for disruption. Made me think when is enough enough?

If you are interested in this I’d recommend Jaron Lanier’s Who Owns the Future - interesting stuff.

 

[Deleted member 226268]

It is inevitable that many jobs will go to automation.

I believe the figure is that 7 out of 10 jobs are ripe for automation.

As for business I suspect only the larger ones that can afford the technology will survive.

http://www.wired.com/2012/12/ff-robots-will-take-our-jobs/all/

Don't need to be Nostradamus to see that Old Blighty has come right up to it's End-of-Shelf-Life !
Over the last 50 years, just about everything that was - No longer is.

Important major industries have closed down or moved out to another country where it is cheaper to operate.

We were forced to allow foreign companies to move in at preferential terms ( to them )
in order to give our own workers employment.
Even in the same job they had before, when it was a British company.

We now have to import coal, steel, textiles, cars, industrial machinery, etc. because there are no British companies left.

Everything left over that is still actually working, is now totally dependent on Computers and technology.

This will rapidly escalate the coming demise, because the instant internet communications will allow
foreign companies to do our work, at low foreign company pay - rates.
That means there will be no need for English workers.

Supermarkets installing robot check-outs, cheaper than employing minimum wage staff.
Now the Post Office is spending £ millions installing self-service machines in their post offices.

Andover Post Office has recently installed such a machine, it is so complicated to use, they have to employ
someone full time to sort out the inevitable disaster and confusion.
It is easier and less stress to wait in the queue to see a real person.

Cad and industrial design, accountancy, insurance, import-export, - a Chinese or Indian company will do it all at half price,
and twice as fast, by internet.

The only professions left soon will be Undertakers, call girls and food importers.

That Call-Me-Useless jerk in the government is giving £ billions of our tax money away in foreign aid every year,
to African dictator's private bank accounts, endless support for the Indian Space rocket development,
when we need the money here to support the start of new businesses.

Probably a futile dream now !

 

[Matthew1983]

I like to think it will still be around.. but would have preferred to have sold it by then