Well, place your bets, who is going to get it tomorrow?
- Thread starter asonda
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Umm, hard one. I think Obama will win the popular vote but with their Electoral College system that does not necessarily mean he will win the White House (Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 but won the White House).
McCain might just pull it off but I think it unlikely. So my money would be on Obama, but not by a huge margin.
McCain might just pull it off but I think it unlikely. So my money would be on Obama, but not by a huge margin.
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Obama will win the popular vote by a comparatively small margin - maybe 3-4%. He'll win the electoral college votes, however, by a large margin.
More than that, the Democrats will probably achieve a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate (60 of the 100 votes).
This is a business forum, so I'm looking at this from a business perspective: God help us because it's going to put many US companies out of business, lead to the imposition of new international trade barriers, and lead to massive government intervention through regulation and ideological programs.
More than that, the Democrats will probably achieve a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate (60 of the 100 votes).
This is a business forum, so I'm looking at this from a business perspective: God help us because it's going to put many US companies out of business, lead to the imposition of new international trade barriers, and lead to massive government intervention through regulation and ideological programs.
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So what you are saying Steve is that he'll only just win the popular vote in each state but when he wins a state he gets all the college votes so this is how he'll get a big margin?
I've not been following the policy stuff too closely. Why is it that Obama will be bad for business?
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Yes. If Obama wins Ohio by 51% to 49%, for example, he still gets 100% of the electoral college votes for that state.
Draw the analogy with British elections. Mrs. Thatcher never won a majority of the popular vote, but she won substantial majorities in the House of Commons. At the time, the Liberals won a significant percentage of the popular vote but had next to no MPs; you win nothing for coming second everywhere. It's the same thing here.
John McCain will win large majorities in some big states, such as in Texas and across the South, and will probably win a majority of states. Obama will win some contests, probably Ohio and Virginia and Pennsylvania, with razor-thin majorities, including some rather populous states. The net result is that the popular vote across the country may be close, but Obama will win many more electoral votes. This is why the candidates have spent all their time campaigning in only a handful of important states.
Some authors have written that the US is facing a new Civil War: urban versus rural, north versus south, and so on. This is quite true. The strength of feeling is very strong, and the wounds from this election are going to take a long time to heal. No matter who wins, about half the population is going to be in a state of deep depression on Wednesday morning.
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Several reasons, although this guy is such a chameleon he may yet back away from some of his more stupid ideas:
1) He wants to pull out of many free trade agreements. While free trade has hurt some traditional industries, such as car manufacturing, it has generated many millions of jobs. Exports are saving the US economy right now. Still, in populist campaign rhetoric, Obama has said he'll pull out of these unfair trade agreements and penalise companies that "send American jobs overseas". In practice, this means hitting small businesses like mine that can launch solely because we can obtain services at a fraction of the cost overseas. Take away that option (e.g., by excluding them as valid expenses or by imposing a penalty of some type), and we can no longer afford to compete with companies overseas.
2) He promises to use taxes and subsidies to fund ideological initiatives. For example, he plans to employ millions of workers to build windmills and solar panels. What he forgets is that no important technology is built 100 percent at home any more. For example, the typical Boeing plane consists of parts from many countries. Obama plans to stop all this and keep the jobs at home for American workers. This means less competition, lower quality, and the mentality of a nationalised industry. He's also said that he'll tax coal-fired power stations out of existence, and he won't drill for new oil or build nuclear power stations - so fuel prices will rocket.
3) He's introducing a wide range of expensive new programs - including a national healthcare system. How will he pay for this? He'll hit businesses with hefty new taxes. He keeps saying how the current administration rewards the rich and penalises the poor. A business owner would say the current policy rewards those who create jobs. Without doubt, heavy taxes on business, together with new regulations, will cost the US many millions of jobs. It will also throw the economy into a tailspin. History reveals that economies thrive when they are free; government intervention almost always fails.
Of course, people vote for a candidate for a wide variety of reasons, but this election will have a very big impact on small business owners in the US. This is very important because almost all new jobs are generated by small business.
I'll predict that there'll be a period of euphoria if Obama is elected - particularly in Europe. The dollar will rise and there will be a feeling of optimism for a while. If he does little and maintains the status quo, things will work out OK. If, instead, he starts to pursue his campaign promises, unemployment will go through the roof. With the rise in fuel costs, imposition of new taxes on business, and tariffs on imports, inflation will also begin to rise.
Maybe he'll have the sense to ignore most of his promises. While it may cause a furore initially, most people will forget after a while. Actually, I'm hopeful this will happen. Within weeks of his election, I'm sure he'll say something like "the financial situation is worse than I thought so I won't be able to launch this program or that program".
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Top man! Why does anyone in the UK care about an election in some backwater third world country where they don't even speak an International language like English, totally beyond me.
No if we were talking WWF my money would be on the dark bloke, apparently the old bloke has cancer and I think would probably struggle past 2 rounds.
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And here's an excerpt from an article published today where someone actually did the maths. It relates to a plumbing business in Pennsylvania that employs 52 people. The average wage at the company, including office staff, installers and service workers, is $31,200, or $15 an hour.
First, "Barack Obama and Joe Biden will require that employers provide seven paid sick days per year," states the Obama campaign's Web site. "I give three paid sick days," explained the business owner. His extra cost for this one new regulation would be $24,960 (4 extra days, 52 employees, at an average of $120 per day). "That's one of the women in the office," he said. "I can make up that cost by letting one of the office people go."
Second, Obama states that employers will be required to pay 100 percent of the cost of health insurance premiums for 100 percent of their employees or face a tax penalty. "I pay 75 percent of their coverage," explained the owner. "The family policy is about $11,000. For single guys, it's about $5,000." At an average annual cost of $7,000 per policy, his additional cost for 52 employees to cover the 25 percent of the premiums that he currently doesn't pay is $91,000. "That's the price of three installers," he said. "Just to stay even with where I am, I'd have to fire three more people or raise some prices and fire two."
Third, with the estate tax, Obama is calling for a top tax rate of 45 percent on estates valued above $3.5 million, producing an estimated "death tax" of $675,000 on an estate of $5 million. "You're kidding," he said. "They took half my income on the way up and now they want another half when I die?" He estimated that his business is already valued at more than $3 million, in addition to the value of his home and investments. "Why," he asked, "would I want to grow to 100 employees? What'll stop them from changing it to 75 percent?"
Fourth, Obama's economic plan calls for a hike in the minimum wage to $9.50 an hour within three years. The business owner's reaction? "That's bad for two reasons. I don't have anyone at minimum, but raise the bottom by $3 and a guy making $15 wants $18. Plus it's bad for productivity when people think their pay raises are coming from government instead of from their own individual effort."
Fifth, saying he'll "play offense for organized labor," Obama is proposing that workers should be denied the right to a private ballot at work in deciding whether to unionize. "That'll never be," said the plumbing entrepreneur. "I'm in business because I'm independent, not to take orders from a grievance chairman. I'd shut down."
Sixth, the increase in taxes on this small business owner from Obama's proposed hike in the income tax rate from 36% to 39.8% on incomes above $200,000 and the proposed increase in Social Security taxes comes to $32,000 per year. "That's another employee," he said, referring to the termination of another installer in order to just stay even.
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I can't vote, Michael, so I'm an independent observer and business entrepreneur. From the latter perspective, I know that Mr. Obama will mean the death knell to many small businesses. He's very much pro-union, government interventionist, protectionist, and general hater of anyone successful enough to make money.
It's such a shame that American voters had to choose such an extremist in order to voice their objections to the current president. For that's what this election is: not a vote for Obama but a vote against Bush.
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I agree with Steve about most of the things he has said here apart from Obama being bad for small businesses. If there are trade barriers it wil only hit the big multinationals and they will be forced to emply Amerccans instead ot outsoucing to cheap 3rd world countries.
As for some of his othe policies. He has yet to face DC and the political bargaining so a lot of those will be toned down and he knows it and lets not forget GW Bush has spent Trillions on the war in Irag - he also knows that the money can be found.
The bottom line is that does the world need another shrewd politician out to line his own pocket or someone with some basic ideals.
I would vote for Obama although I rather suspect that the the millions that do will be morning his death within 6 months because this is Jack & Bobby kennedy all over again and then some. Rob
As for some of his othe policies. He has yet to face DC and the political bargaining so a lot of those will be toned down and he knows it and lets not forget GW Bush has spent Trillions on the war in Irag - he also knows that the money can be found.
The bottom line is that does the world need another shrewd politician out to line his own pocket or someone with some basic ideals.
I would vote for Obama although I rather suspect that the the millions that do will be morning his death within 6 months because this is Jack & Bobby kennedy all over again and then some. Rob
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Steve, you are not an independent observer. Almost, all your posts point to the fact that you would like anybody but Obama to win. Why don't you just say that? If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck,.... you know the rest.
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- Original Poster
- #26
I do feel a bit worried for Obama.
Everybody seems to have got it into their heads he is going to be shot sometime in his early Presidency. I don't like seeing anybody get hurt, but he does seem to have put alot of time, money and effort into going for Presidency.
So Steve, are you saying that 'really' for America to continue on it's current path, no radical changes etc, then McCain is the one to go for. Yet..If you are pretty much pissed off with the Bush Administration, like radical ideas and and want to place everything in the hands of a hoper instead of a do-er you choose Obama?
Everybody seems to have got it into their heads he is going to be shot sometime in his early Presidency. I don't like seeing anybody get hurt, but he does seem to have put alot of time, money and effort into going for Presidency.
So Steve, are you saying that 'really' for America to continue on it's current path, no radical changes etc, then McCain is the one to go for. Yet..If you are pretty much pissed off with the Bush Administration, like radical ideas and and want to place everything in the hands of a hoper instead of a do-er you choose Obama?
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This is an excellent phrase. People are voting based on hope - which is a powerful emotion - but a business run on hope will fail rather quickly.
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You're right that I disagree fundamentally with his policies, but it's principally because, as the most left-wing member of Congress, he's extreme in his dislike of the business world.
Let's face it, Obama has never worked for a business. He doesn't know what a business is like. He doesn't know what brings or blocks business success. Never, in his entire life, has he had to work for a profit-based organisation. All he's ever done is work for institutions and groups who receive their money from government tax revenues. No wonder he believes that big government is the answer to everything.
It's no surprise he's so anti-business. When we're ignorant about something, we're often negative about it. It's easy to criticise companies when you've never worked for one.
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There is nothing wrong with hope. Look at what the past "do-er" republican government has achieved - turned Bill Clinton's surplus into a huge deficit.
I leave you with a quote from P.J.O'Rourke, the conservative writer, once remarked:
The Republicans are a party that says government doesn't work - and then get elected and prove it.
PS: It's pretty obvious that I am rooting for Obama.
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Two of my children are off school today because the schools are voting places. I drove another child to school, and parking at polling places are all over the place. I could see hundreds of people waiting in line.
There have been reports of intimidation in some places. One news channel reported two Black Panthers forcing people in Philadelphia to vote for Obama. When challenged, they replied that "white power doesn't rule there". Then the police showed up and escorted them away. In another precinct, volunteers were challenging old people to consider changing their votes. Voting machines are breaking down all over the place. Optical readers aren't working in some places because of rain - they can't read wet ballots. Here in Atlanta, all the machines broke down at one site and they ran out of paper ballots by 8am. It's amazing just how unprepared local government can be. As someone said, they are used to a low turn-out and the systems are being stretched to breaking point because of all the people showing up.
But, on the whole, it's all rather good.
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D
Dawg
Steve:
US Presidents since WW2
Truman: No business experience
Ike: Soldier, no business experience
JFK: No business experience
LBJ: Teacher, no business experience
Nixon: Lawyer, no business experience
Carter: Farmer, agro business experience
Reagan: Actor, no business experience
Bush: Oil business
Clinton: Professor (3 years), no business experience
Bush II: Oil business, sports industry
So, "lets face it", since the Second World War only the Bushs and Carter have had any business experience. And your point was?
US Presidents since WW2
Truman: No business experience
Ike: Soldier, no business experience
JFK: No business experience
LBJ: Teacher, no business experience
Nixon: Lawyer, no business experience
Carter: Farmer, agro business experience
Reagan: Actor, no business experience
Bush: Oil business
Clinton: Professor (3 years), no business experience
Bush II: Oil business, sports industry
So, "lets face it", since the Second World War only the Bushs and Carter have had any business experience. And your point was?
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G
Grassman
The new Coleman Young?
Look what happened to Detroit during Youngs back to back terms as mayor and it'll perhaps give some indication of what the good ole USA can expect under Obama, maybe.
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