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What are your thoughts on Brexit?

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simon field said:
Exactly. So cut out the extra, unnecessary layer of string-pullers & box tickers!
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Honestly, if you think for a moment that by leaving the EU, you'll be able to eliminate the bureaucracy, I'm afraid you couldn't be more wrong.

The Basic figures just don't add up:

The top export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($51B), Germany ($46.5B), the Netherlands ($34.2B), Switzerland ($33.6B) and France ($27B).

The top import origins are Germany ($100B), China ($62.7B), the Netherlands ($50.7B), the United States ($44.4B) and France ($41.5B).

One could take the approach based on a misguided belief that because we buy more we could possibly broker better deals with the individual countries. However, if you look at the EU as a whole, we don't even feature within the list of Top 15 trading partners.

So I would have to re-iterate my stance that I am still undecided, as to be honest neither side has provided any clear evidence that we will be better off either way.

However, I am slightly swayed by the remain camp, because as of now, there is a clearer picture of what life is like within in the EU. I would have to concede there has been some bad and some good. Some of which may have directly impacted me and my business both negatively and positively, and the whole I am satisfied.
 
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threenine said:
However, if you look at the EU as a whole, we don't even feature within the list of Top 15 trading partners.
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Can you clarify that for me please? I'm confused to what that means in real terms. We wouldn't appear on a list of countries that do trade with the EU, because we are in the EU. Or are you talking about us not even being the 15th biggest trader inside the EU with trades between EU countries?
 
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threenine said:
And businesses will make those deals. However, they will be hamstrung by the decisions and legislation that is imposed by the bumbling oafs!
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I have to agree that businesses will do the deals and it will have to be done around the frameworks set out by politicians and diplomats etc. The two are not exclusive and never will be.

With that in mind, what impact do you think that TTIP and giving China special trading status will have on the whole process? The EU appears to be rapidly heading towards both scenarios. From what I can gather, TTIP will give US companies the ability to sue governments within the EU if they dont open up their markets to them. It gives the Americans so much power Cameron is now struggling to get to get the NHS excluded from the deal. Wouldn't that American power greatly impact on the decision making by our own government? Would our government stand up to a big American corporation suing them for billions and risk an embarrassing defeat or will they just let them have their own way?
 
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Well yes, thats the entire point. At this stage we do not feature on the list of the Top 15, primarily because all our current trade within the EU, is purely based on the fact that we are in the EU.

If we were to exit, we would need to be able claim a position, and "re-negotiate" terms in order to claim our spot within the Top 15.

Exiting the EU would mean we would need to start from 0!
 
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threenine said:
I'll think you'll find the answer in the figures

export destinations of the United Kingdom are the United States ($51B),
top import origins : the United States ($44.4B) China ($62.7B)

China doesn't even figure in our export destinations below France!
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I think you are missing the dangers I'm trying to raise. The danger with the US being given greater access to our markets via the EU being in TIPP goes above who is selling who what and how much. American companies will have the direct ability to bully governments. If a big Wall Street company wants a share of the NHS and the government stops them, that company has the ability to sue the British government for billions in lost revenue. This will not take place in a British court either - these will happen in behind closed door tribunals. I can easily see governments across Europe (including ours) rolling over and giving in to their demands, rather than facing a big expensive, embarrassing defeat to a non UK company.

BTW The EU readily accepts that TIPP will cost jobs right across Europe as they will be powerless to stop US companies shifting jobs back to the states.

The danger with China is to do with the trade balance between us and them. At the moment China is flooding every country it can with cheap steel, destroying steel industries everywhere (apart from the US who sensibly slapped a 550% tariff on Chinese steel). If they are given a special trading status by the EU they will have even greater ability to do this to us. We may even have to remove the limited tariffs on Chinese steel we have. And that is just the steel industry. With a special trading status they could flood our markets with anything and take any number of industries out in the process.

I accept there are risks in going it alone, but these two risks seem to be at least equally risky.
 
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Carl "Excel-Expert" Nixon said:
The danger with the US being given greater access to our markets via the EU being in TIPP goes above who is selling who what and how much. American companies will have the direct ability to bully governments.
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I totally get what you're saying. In honesty I can't see any of the EU states actively signing up and making this arrangement possible. Irrespective of that the Daily Mail says.

The issues with China, Steel and other industries. When we look at the evolution of industry , I think we can honestly say that industries come and go. I don't think it's feasible for any nation to hang on to any specific industry. Things move across the globe. For the good and the bad. What matters is how nations innovate.

China, may be a dominant player today, but it's day of demise will come.

The fact I am most proud of as British person, is that some of the most innovative and break through inventions of our time, have come about because of British collaboration with other nations.

If we take the medium we are using for this debate, was made possible by Sir Tim Berners Lee who at the time was working for CERN.

Any financial planner will tell you, you cannot use the results of the past to guarantee the results of the future.

The future is an uncertain place. and as I have said. I don't agree with either side of this debate. I have yet to see any clear winning argument, and the vote leave are offering a box of uncertainty, and the Vote Remain are offering a box of uncertainty.
Of which the only compelling argument the Vote Leave can come up with is one of Sovereignty. Which I have to say, I don't completely buy into.

The future of this planet as a whole does not rely on individual nations retaining their sovereignty, I see it will pretty much depend on human race trying to break the shackles of patriotism and nationalistic identities and embrace union and working together to resolve issues that actually affect the survival of the entire human race and the planet as a whole.

I think I will end my contribution here, as I do feel I am bordering on trolling :-)
 
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Its not trolling, its debating and it is always welcome from someone who has thought through what they are saying.

On the steel industry I would say that it is physically possible to save it and make it competitive through modernisation and other measures such as renewable energy. Next to Port Talbot there are plans for a tidal energy plant and being south Wales we also have no shortage of wind energy. Unfortunately the UK government can not interfere and provide funding for those type of things.

While totally agreeing that industries move on, I would say steel is one of those sectors every country needs self reliance in. Energy is another. If China keeps going it will kill off the European steel industry and then it will be in their interest to jack the price up. Without our own steel industry we would have no option but to buy it at inflated prices just so we can still manufacture washing machines, make cars and build buildings. This is why the US has taken the extraordinary step of introducing a 550% tariff on Chinese steel so they can protect their own steel industry.
 
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I know Port Talbot well, my family are from there. My Mum lives in Margam, and she has a lovely view straight into the back of the Works :-)

I know a number of people you have either worked or are still working there. Those works are the life-blood of the town. Last week I happened to be on Aberavon beach, enjoying a remarkably sunny afternoon in South Wales. I looked up to the hills and noticed that they are now being turned into mass solar farms. So I had assumed these must be designed and introduced to supply the works . Not sure where this funding has come from EU or UK.

I appreciate that, people may be fearing the end of EU investment in local areas i.e. Wales, but at the same time all good things must come to an end, and areas do need to be able to stand and make progress by themselves and cut the dependencies.

I am not convinced that Leaving or staying in the EU, will bring further investment to these areas.

The one thing that really does make the whole Brexit argument hard to swallow, is that they are trying to use sovereignty and immigration as a justification. Two arguments I really are rather knee jerk.

If we have a problem with immigration, then we need to work with our European Partners to fix the issues that lead to emigration. Not try to run from the problem and try to build walls that American Buffoon.

This weekend I happen to talk with an English woman, who lives in Spain, is married to French Man, and who's daughter speaks spanish and goes to school in Spain. However, she wants to vote for leave. She lives in Europe! Her reasoning is, she doesn't want the EU to make the laws for Britain (which it doesn't ) , but she is prepared to live in the EU ?? The mind boggles!
 
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I think every country in the EU needs to be able to protect its steel industry, energy industry and several other key industries - but by no means not all industries. If we look at the Chinese dumping of cheap steel around the world, it is clearly designed to kill of other countries steel industries. Which means we have to ask what happens if they succeed? If we have no steel industry left, China can jack its prices up as much as it likes and we will have to pay it. We need steel in just about every industry in the country to build washing machines, cars, buildings etc. So almost everything Britain produces will have to go up in price to reflect the higher steel prices.

If we were talking about a different industry I would agree with you, if we cant do it profitably then dont do it. However, steel is a key industry that impacts on so much we need to retain some capability so we are not at the mercy of others.

I'm not someone who advocates immigration blockades, just immigration in a controlled manner, which we already do to some extent. We impose quotas on non-EU countries to control the numbers and to ensure we dont end up with a glut of specific skills. We just need to be able to apply this to the EU.

I have no faith in the EU fixing the immigration problem. We have the 3rd lowest unemployment rate at around 5%, so the countries in the 12% to 24% unemployment rate range love that their people can come here and work. It makes them look better, lowers their unemployment rate and cuts their social welfare bills. They are never going to vote for anything that stops that and because the EU uses a veto system it only takes one to say no.

Considering we have two countries in the EU that have 20%+ unemployment rates for over a decade shows how incapable they are solving the root causes.

One thing that hasnt been discussed is immigration good for the EU as a whole. Is mass movement from the poorer countries to the richer countries good for the poorer countries? Those countries then suffer from a brain drain which impacts on there ability to build their economies.

BTW - Nothing wrong with the view of the works LOL. Apparently, in that region we have tidal, solar, wind (on shore and off shore) and even thermal spring options for helping with their energy needs.
 
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KM-Tiger said:
Err, it does.

Many of them are done as regulations, as distinct from directives, which means they pass into law without even being debated in parliament.
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Provide me with an example of a regulation that came into UK law, without being debated in Parliament. Maybe possibly supply evidence of the direct detrimental effect it had.

I am really intrigued by this
 
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paul0123 said:
economists agrees that Brexit would be a disaster.
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The economists thought it was a good idea to join the Euro on at least two occasions so I wouldnt put too much weight behind their comments.

When anyone in the news comes out in support of remain I look at how they are funded. With the economists I have found any sort of backgrounds to, over half have some sort of direct funding from the EU. Half of the remaining economists I have dug in to have some sort of connection to EU money (for example they work in universities that receive EU money). It is not scientific in anyway and it is only a small pool of people, but it is enough for me to question if they are biased in some way.

When you hear a "professional" remain supporter it is worth checking their finances. For example the trade unions that are now telling their members to vote remain have all received direct EU funding. That puts huge questions over bias

http://order-order.com/2016/05/13/eu-paid-e160-million-to-pro-remain-groups/
 
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this brexit farce has me looking at so called ``honest`` MPs and the facts and figures they are ``spouting`` so i wrote this wee paper on the subject- it`ll help you make your mind up if your havoring- Fix company gb- a how to guide- by onepintleft on gumroad ,
 
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threenine said:
I know Port Talbot well, my family are from there. My Mum lives in Margam, and she has a lovely view straight into the back of the Works :)

I know a number of people you have either worked or are still working there. Those works are the life-blood of the town. Last week I happened to be on Aberavon beach, enjoying a remarkably sunny afternoon in South Wales. I looked up to the hills and noticed that they are now being turned into mass solar farms. So I had assumed these must be designed and introduced to supply the works . Not sure where this funding has come from EU or UK.
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The solar PV farms you refer to are privately funded and have no direct CAPEX funding from either the EU or UK.

The PV farms do receive tariffs for generation of power, paid by the UK Gov. These tariffs, and the level of tariffs payable, are in turn governed by some bizarre financial matrix and EU malarky that is contributing to the demise of the renewables sector, and in turn, the loss of jobs here in the UK.
 
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paul0123 said:
economists agrees that Brexit would be a disaster.
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Not quite the ipsos mori poll on brexit was sent to 3818 recipients, only 639 responded. Out of this 68% said we would be worse off, 22% said no difference and 8% said better off. On other factors like unemployment it was evenly matched. Not quite agreement and more of a straw poll given the numbers.

Source: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3739/Economists-Views-on-Brexit.aspx

krupuk said:
Except you wouldn't have any extra money because it would go straight back to the EU. Just as it does with Norway.
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Norway pay into the EEA, total contributions in 2015 were around 447 million euro but this is an annual figure. Source: http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financial-contribution/#.V15tBGQrK2w

You know brexit (I think) is edging the polls, not really because of great campaign on their part but because of the constant lies and completely invented figures/stories from the remain camp.

Its getting really tiring hearing the remainers saying if we leave 'this will happen', 'that will happen' when in fact they are just (educated perhaps) opinions and not matter of fact.
 
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garyk said:
Its getting really tiring hearing the remainers saying if we leave 'this will happen', 'that will happen' when in fact they are just (educated perhaps) opinions and not matter of fact.
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You have to remember who are delivering the fear campaign message. The Bullingdon Boys only understand force and bullying, it's what they are brought up to respect and presume the UK populous are so easily cowed.

A consideration of our history would have told them that we are for the most part an awkward, unruly obstinate bunch of little Islanders who when told forcefully to do something will do the exact opposite :cool:
 
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from a personal point of view i'm IN.

But out would mean a lower pound, which is good as I deal in USD!
 
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krupuk said:
Except you wouldn't have any extra money because it would go straight back to the EU. Just as it does with Norway.
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That is just an option open to us (we have about 3 or 4 main options). We don't have to buy back in to the EU free market - it is not the only alternative open to us.

For example, this is a list of countries the EU have free trade agreements (FTAs) with, there is no reason we couldn't go down that route.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements
 
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I think it will be a domino to the whole E.U and europe financial zone, probably Greece will follow and then.... nobody knows.
 
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I came across this tonight whilst searching for info on Bretix, makes for some interesting reading:

Open Letter to the UK citizens about the June 2016 Referendum

Dear British voters,

United Kingdom joined the European Community in 1973 and it is worth to mention that the people have not been asked prior signing the membership agreement. Only two years later, in 1975 you decided in a referendum if you want to stay in the European Community, which was approved by 66 percent of the voters.

The basic idea, as it was explained to the people in Europe, was a community of European nations infriendship, solidarity, mutual benefit and democracy: Basic European Values.


Unfortunately, these inviting promises proved to be false or failed. There is nothing about freedom, solidarity or friendship in the European Union. The European Union has proven to act on behalf of the interest of banks, multi-national enterprises and groups in the shadow, as advised by professional think-tanks and lobbyists, not in favor of its people. In fact, the European Union is an economic union with a common market (without internal borders) which enables a free circulation of money, goods and people/workforce, and an ongoing process to harmonize business standards. The European Union is designed as a cartel and typically, there is a lack of democratic structures and processes: democracy becomes a disturbing factor.

Democracy, and especially direct democracy, is against any fiber of this European Union

The peoples’ vote got lost in the bureaucracy of the European Union. The European Union is driven by technocrats and an agenda which will lead to the United States of Europe shortly, the loss of the national sovereignty and identity of the European countries. The national parliaments have already delegated to a large extend their responsibilities and sovereignty to the European Institutions and consequently the national voting becomes more and more irrelevant.

The European Parliament, the only institution in the European Union the people voted for, has a more or less decorative function, it cannot legislate as we know it from national parliaments. The European Commission, which is in fact the European government, is not elected. It consists of delegates from the national governments. As Horst Seehofer - Prime Minister of Bavaria - put it: Those who are elected do not decide and those who decide are not elected.

European Union has a track history of ignoring the vote of the people. Referenda are only welcome if they approve the official policy of the European Union. If the people didn’t vote as requested, the governments used to arrange an information campaign and repeat the referendum until the outcome is convenient or the referendum result is ignored or twisted.

Denmark voted in the referendum in June 1992 against the Maastricht treaty, the re-negotiated version was approved in a second referendum in May 1993.
In 2001 Irish voters rejected the Treaty of Nice, in a second referendum 2002 it was approved.

France voted in May 2005 against the proposed European Constitution. Referenda would have also to be held in Czech, Denmark, Ireland, Poland, Portugal and the UK. As the risk of more refusals was too high, the European Union decided to modify the text and sign them as treaty by the national governments, this is what we have today as Treaty of Lisbon.

We, the Greek people, voted in July 2015 against further austerity measures required by the Troika, and our vote was ignored. Prior the referendum even highest officials of the European Union warned the Greek people not to vote NO as this would lead to a Grexit, even this is not ruled in the European treaties.

In March 2016, the European Union signed a deal with Turkey on the migration crisis. Part of the deal is that the European Union takes over a quota of migrants and distributes them by a defined key within the European countries. Hungary has announced to hold a referendum on the enforced migration, this referendum was condemned as an undemocratic measure.

Some time ago, the Dutch people voted in a referendum against the EU-Ukraine agreement. EU officials mentioned in several interviews, that obviously referenda are dangerous and a threat against the European Union. Truly, referenda are dangerous to today’s E.U., but not dangerous to the people of Europe. In the meantime, there are serious discussions to prohibit referenda within the European Union in general in order to avoid further conflicts.

Even in Switzerland, the country with the most enhanced practice of referenda, the politicians fear more than anything else the vote of the people, as it may destroy their plans in case the people do not vote as they recommend them.

The European Alliance stop-TTIP is an initiative of more than 500 organizations all over Europe and has collected more than 3.4 million signatures in order to stop TTIP and CETA. Those agreements are considered as a threat to democracy, environment, consumers and labour standards. But the European Commission ignores them…

Dear friends of democracy in the UK,

We want to express our solidarity as we know that you have to take a historical decision for your country and for your people, as we did last summer.

On 23rd June 2016 you will have to decide in a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. A referendum is a direct democratic element, the highest expression of the peoples will, a privilege and a rare opportunity in the European Union.

You have now the historical chance to mark your national independence day and stop the further transformation of Europe into a European dictatorship.

Democracy is the key to freedom, peace and prosperity; it protects human rights and ensures respect and tolerance.
Our thoughts are with you, we send you best wishes from Greece for a democratic voting,

* * *
 
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I shall be voting remain, Brexit would be madness


I run a small business.
Not sure what Red Tape we're tied up in, I'm not aware of any. Any brexiter care to give a good example of red tape.
The EU is democratic, we vote for MEPs
 
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