uk pound vs euro

[jamesy boy]

Hi all,

This may seem like a silly question (in essence it is)

Where is the best place to find out exchange rate predictions?

I know it is a difficult thing to predict but any recommendations would be really helpful.


What are your views on the pound vs euro over the next 3 months?

Do you feel that the pound is going to recover above 1.10 eur = 1gbp

we reached an all time low of parity of 1 gbp in eur at the end of december, do you think this will be repeated again or do you feel that we will see the pound getting stronger vs the euro?


Your opinions would be greatly appreciated.


James

 

[mke]

That's several questions. For predictions, track the forward and spot prices on the FT or similar FX pages.

I've thought for a very long time that the pound is not worth a euro and the overpricing is killing our exports, especially those from small business who cannot afford to set the hedging funds aside for long periods. For their sake I hope it stays low in the longer term.

We need a far stronger economic performance to justify any future rises above and beyond purely speculative activity.

 

[Morgy]

No one knows!
There are 'experts' sitting in offices trying to guess - they don't even know.

 

[scargill]

That's several questions. For predictions, track the forward and spot prices on the FT or similar FX pages.

I've thought for a very long time that the pound is not worth a euro and the overpricing is killing our exports, especially those from small business who cannot afford to set the hedging funds aside for long periods. For their sake I hope it stays low in the longer term.

We need a far stronger economic performance to justify any future rises above and beyond purely speculative activity.

Of course, for businesses based here, the current rate is getting better all the time - if you happen to have a property in for example Spain, it's not so good.

 

[jamesy boy]

cheers for the replies,

regarding spot prices and forward prices i find it really complicated to figure out how they work. Me sounding stupid could you pass me on a link or something to show a chart and the predictions of gbp vs euro please.


Thanks

Much appreciated

 

[mke]

First lesson: Buy a copy of the FT (£1.80), Wall Street Journal or similar and wade through the relevant charts. Repeat the exercise on at least sufficient days to get the hang of it.

Second lesson: Visit a good book shop and buy a title to the effect of "How To Read The Financial Times" (that one was quite popular in my undergrad days, don't know if it's still in print). Or any basic textbook on understanding statistics.

Scargill, now's the time to buy in the UK - can you get your money out of Spain? What's state of the property market there?

And no, thanks, I don't wish to discuss charts and suchlike here.

 

[jamesy boy]

ok.......

greatly clarified. :|



I need a source on the net for predictions which is for dummies.

Im not about to study a whole new subject. Im not an economist nor do i wish to be one. I need quick easy information.


Thanks

 

[mke]

Even at the most basic level, you need to understand the relationships between the relevant numbers, even if only as seen on a graph.

Do a google on fx news and view a few results. If you can get a picture from them, you are on your way. If not, you have some learning to do.

 

[Jeff FV]

Before I begin I must stress that I am no expert and this is only my opinion, which has as much chance as being right as being wrong (so probably not much help) but my two penneth (or should it be two cents) worth is this:

The pound has (understandably) taken a hammering of late and the GB economy is in a difficult position. However, there are turbulent times ahead for the euro, largely due to the differing needs of the member nations. For example, the needs of Greece, Italy, Ireland (amongst others) are very different from, say Germany and these differences will lead to instability in the euro. My best guess is that the GB pound will make a (small) rally against the euro, but that ultimately the dollar will once again be king.

 

[mke]

The combined economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Italy are too small to have much impact on the Euro, in my humble opinion. The stronger EU economies have something to sell. GB does not, comparatively speaking at least. The dollar is relatively strong due to its status as an international currency. But its comparative position there is weakening slowly and will continue to do so. The Euro is going to be relatively strong against the pound and dollar for some considerable time to come.

 

[Jeff FV]

The political impact of the weak economies of the smaller nations possibliy means that they have will have a greater effect than their ecomomies might suggest. Interesting to see what happens - I suppose my best piece of advice would be to not dabble in foreign exchange trading - OK, you could make a lot, but you could also lose a whole heap of cash very, very quickly: too many unforeseen and uncontrolable variables to make an informed choice!

 

[thebigIAM]

Did anyone mention Spain?

I'd say it's anyone's guess. I try to make predictions sometimes judging on interest rates and GDP, but I can't say it gives me any great accuracy.

I've read lots of comment suggesting that before the end of this year, the euro will perform badly against the pound but I can't remember on what basis this prediction was based. I think it was because "the UK will pull away from recession faster than Europe, because it is easier to sack people here". I wonder how accurate that will be?!

 

[jamesy boy]

Thanks for the replies guys.

My situation is i owe 25,000 euros to a company in bulgaria. I have taken a 90 day interest free credit with them and have to pay the full amount within this time and the deadline will be end of April. My problem is that i currently am finding it very difficult to predict when the right time to pay is.

I took the credit for materials on the 27th jan when the exchange rate was 1.05 , today it is 1.13 so i have made a saving already if i decided to pay today but i have a feeling it may rise to 1.20 which will be the perfect time to pay this debt of.


Whats your opinion? what would you do in my position?

its a hard to predict but your 2 cents is appreciated very much as i am finding it very difficult to figure out what to do.

James

 

[jamesy boy]

bumpy bump

 

[mke]

Bump the thread as much as you like, at the end of the day you're going to have to trust your own judgement. As has been stated elsewhere on this forum today, currency speculation is a dangerous game. That's especially true in the short run and with money that you need.

If you are, in fact, ahead at the moment my own instinct would be to take the money and run. But it's not my decision to make. It's yours.

 

[Tej]

If you are, in fact, ahead at the moment my own instinct would be to take the money and run. But it's not my decision to make. It's yours.

If I was in your situation, I would buy forward now, as has been suggested by Mke. Presumably you have costed your items, so you will be making a profit nevertheless.

 

[Mister B]

I agree...if you're ahead then cut and run. Personally, I think that the £ will strengthen over the next few weeks but that's only my opinion and I know diddly squat. It's like everything, it's a gamble. You'll cry if you lose and smile if you win. Only you can make the call!

Mister B

 

[jim_gold]

I agree with the guys above Euro will weaken vs the pound over the medium term. Depends how risk-averse you are as to whether to buy forward now, but as you admit you don't have a lot of currency trading experience I suggest this would be your best option. The pound is already up around 10p from its recent low.
You might want to read the parallel thread .

 

[Foremost]

I have a blog that looks at exchange rate predictions so feel free to look at it. its foremostcurrencygroup.blogspot.com

 

[talklife]

No one knows!
There are 'experts' sitting in offices trying to guess - they don't even know.

i totally agree

Talk about life
http://www.talfe.com

 

[JGOffshore]

ok.......

I need a source on the net for predictions which is for dummies.

Im not about to study a whole new subject. Im not an economist nor do i wish to be one. I need quick easy information.

Thanks

You might as well ask for one that will tell you the results of all next month's horse races.

There is no easy way I'm afraid, otherwise everone who be doing it. FX trading is really a form of betting and if everyone thought the same way no one would place a bet

 

[Interpaws]

One of the greatest reasons for a currency to fall back is when the powers that be print loads of it to pay a debt. At the moment the £ $ and€ are all printing like mad as one rises above one of the others it has a printing session to bring it back down. This would cause inflation but as people have no buying power at the moment prices are getting lower and lower to compete. Not fuel or other things that don’t actually have to compete on the open market. They show the real level of inflation.
If you want to predict the rise and fall of the £ against the € check out the forex charts they can give some indication as to how they could move but you will have to learn how to read them