The Budget & business

[Duke Fame]

In summary, it sounds like:

• Inflation forecast cut for this year from 7% to nearer 4% and to provide a sunnier picture of economic growth, revising the projected fall from 1.4% to nearer 0.5%.
• 30 hours of free childcare for one- and two-year-olds and a boost to funding for existing provision for three-year-olds at a cost of £4bn. This could be paid for in part by scrapping tax-free childcare for school-age children.
• Childcare refunds will be paid upfront to those on universal credit, and there could also be an increase, possibly worth several hundred pounds a year, in the cap.
• Pension Lifetime Allowance is expected to rise to £1.8m, up from its current cap of £1,073,100. The annual allowance – the most a worker can save in their pension pots in a year before paying tax – is set to rise to £60,000 from its current mark of £40,000.
• Tech hubs clustered around universities in England will benefit from almost £1bn in extra funding.
• Personal allowances are to be frozen, pushing more people into higher-rate tax bands and increasing the overall tax rate to 37% of GDP by 2027.
• Extension of the energy price guarantee until July, adding about £3bn to the taxpayer bill, bringing it to £29.4bn overall.
• Ease the cost pressures on swimming pools with a one-year donation managed by Sport England.

EDIT: Several points that Labour will find hard to address emerging through the day - 1) If the Tories are bankrupting the country as they say, why is economic growth looking better than expected under Sunak, and why is inflation starting to level off (and making it more likely that Sunak will hit his goal set out last year). 2) The childcare offer addresses many criticisms of the current system, Labour haven't really pushed on this in an organised, concerted way in recent months (or well, seem to have any defined policies at all, instead preferring some nebulous 'missions'). 3) Energy bills outlook looking healthier than it has in a year. 4) Pension allowance thing, while looking like a giveaway to Tory voters, actually also significantly helps the NHS (see https://www.nhsconfed.org/news/nhs-...n-tax-calculations-needed-tackle-waiting-list for details).

Not too much for small businesses I'm afraid

 

[IanSuth]

Several points that Labour will find hard to address emerging through the day - 1) If the Tories are bankrupting the country as they say, why is economic growth looking better than expected under Sunak, and why is inflation starting to level off (and making it more likely that Sunak will hit his goal set out last year). 2) The childcare offer addresses many criticisms of the current system, Labour haven't really pushed on this in an organised, concerted way in recent months (or well, seem to have any defined policies at all, instead preferring some nebulous 'missions'). 3) Energy bills outlook looking healthier than it has in a year. 4) Pension allowance thing, while looking like a giveaway to Tory voters, actually also significantly helps the NHS (see https://www.nhsconfed.org/news/nhs-...n-tax-calculations-needed-tackle-waiting-list for details).

Not too much for small businesses I'm afraid

1. They will say "appears larger due to inflation - taking that into account we are not growing

2. Just giving money to childcare will do little unless companies also change hiring practices. Everyone looking for people with 2 years experience of x is the issue, companies are all chasing the same 3 people who can hit the ground running as no one has the spare capacity to train people on the job. That is what really needs addressing with some form of incentive to take on people and train them and/or expansion of evening class provision at FE colleges and in the community. Especially important for small businesses with less internal resources.

3. Labour ought to say "well done" on helping people ride out the storm now let's put in place policies to make the UK less dependant on Russian gas / Diesel going forward. Simply whinging about anything and everything does no one any favours

4. Helps the NHS in keeping consultants who were refusing extra shifts or retiring early due to hitting caps as it hadn't risen in line with inflation. Sorting out a problem of their own making. Still think a better way of sorting issues lower down (like junior Dr's) would be to say Student Loan Company tuition fee loans will be wiped at end of yr10 working for NHS - lots of the commentary this week has been about Jnr Dr's starting with 80-90k of debt they need to service so pay not enough hence leave for Aus etc as soon as qualified. Rather than throwing £ at them in salary do something to stop them leaving by tieing service to debt forgiveness which counters the argument for greater early pay and helps retention

 

[japancool]

3. Labour ought to say "well done" on helping people ride out the storm now let's put in place policies to make the UK less dependant on Russian gas / Diesel going forward. Simply whinging about anything and everything does no one any favours

Just a point - the UK isn't reliant on Russian gas. Before the invasion, I think the UK only imported 5% of its gas from Russia.

 

[Duke Fame]

1. They will say "appears larger due to inflation - taking that into account we are not growing

2. Just giving money to childcare will do little unless companies also change hiring practices. Everyone looking for people with 2 years experience of x is the issue, companies are all chasing the same 3 people who can hit the ground running as no one has the spare capacity to train people on the job. That is what really needs addressing with some form of incentive to take on people and train them and/or expansion of evening class provision at FE colleges and in the community. Especially important for small businesses with less internal resources.

3. Labour ought to say "well done" on helping people ride out the storm now let's put in place policies to make the UK less dependant on Russian gas / Diesel going forward. Simply whinging about anything and everything does no one any favours

4. Helps the NHS in keeping consultants who were refusing extra shifts or retiring early due to hitting caps as it hadn't risen in line with inflation. Sorting out a problem of their own making. Still think a better way of sorting issues lower down (like junior Dr's) would be to say Student Loan Company tuition fee loans will be wiped at end of yr10 working for NHS - lots of the commentary this week has been about Jnr Dr's starting with 80-90k of debt they need to service so pay not enough hence leave for Aus etc as soon as qualified. Rather than throwing £ at them in salary do something to stop them leaving by tieing service to debt forgiveness which counters the argument for greater early pay and helps retention

On Point 4, an incentive to stay + earn in the UK generally would help, not just doctors. It's the main reason why I'm against a graduate tax instead of loans as leaving the Uk is then an incentive.

On point 2, the childcare ratios need to be relaxed, if we still need 1 educator to 3 kids, the sums say that a parent has to earn £30k just to cover the basics.

 

[The Byre]

There's going to be more fiddling at the edges with various changes that will make an already convoluted tax code even more absurdly complex.

The true problem is that the various public bodies get enough money - they just waste it. The NHS gets enough. Social security gets enough. Even the cash-strapped MoD gets enough.

BUT

The NHS is badly managed and grossly inefficient.

The MoD has 60,000 civil servants (about ten times too many), more generals than working battle tanks, and an old and unnecessary nuclear deterrent.

The government spends two-and-a-half times as much on interest payments than on defense and is now refusing to give up on this stupid HS2 project and has wasted unbelievable sums digging a prestige hole under London.

Hundreds of billions were totally wasted on an hysterical over-reaction to a novel cold germ.

The government made a complete dog's breakfast of Brexit, damaging large parts of the UK economy and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The problems are not the result of some shortages - but of bad management and stupid knee-jerk decisions.

 

[japancool]

The NHS is badly managed and grossly inefficient.

But.. but... but... it's been privatised!

 

[Duke Fame]

But.. but... but... it's been privatised!

Ha ha, so they will tell you!

Perhaps it should be?

 

[The Byre]

Listening to the budget speech - Hunt seems to be reporting on a country I do not recognise. He began with "We have returned to sound money!"

Say what??? 10% inflation is his idea of sound money???

R&D and science leading the World??? Half as much per capita as other comparable countries is leading the World??? Is he mad?

The only bit he got right is the UK film industry is growing. Apart from that, he seems to be announcing measures to be implemented in Cloud Cuckoo Land!

He is now banging on about AI - jumping on the latest irrelevant tech bandwagon. The last time a chancellor did that was when that little twerp Sunak told us that the UK would become the ****** capital of the World! That stupid idea seems to have been quietly dropped.

 

[WaveJumper]

Listening to the budget speech - Hunt seems to be reporting on a country I do not recognise. He began with "We have returned to sound money!"

Say what??? 10% inflation is his idea of sound money???

R&D and science leading the World??? Half as much per capita as other comparable countries is leading the World??? Is he mad?

The only bit he got right is the UK film industry is growing. Apart from that, he seems to be announcing measures to be implemented in Cloud Cuckoo Land!

He is now banging on about AI - jumping on the latest irrelevant tech bandwagon. The last time a chancellor did that was when that little twerp Sunak told us that the UK would become the ****** capital of the World! That stupid idea seems to have been quietly dropped.

I think he's going to be relying on AI to work it all out ?

 

[Bob Morgan]

Listening to the budget speech - Hunt seems to be reporting on a country I do not recognise. He began with "We have returned to sound money!"

Say what??? 10% inflation is his idea of sound money???

R&D and science leading the World??? Half as much per capita as other comparable countries is leading the World??? Is he mad?

The only bit he got right is the UK film industry is growing. Apart from that, he seems to be announcing measures to be implemented in Cloud Cuckoo Land!

He is now banging on about AI - jumping on the latest irrelevant tech bandwagon. The last time a chancellor did that was when that little twerp Sunak told us that the UK would become the ****** capital of the World! That stupid idea seems to have been quietly dropped.

He's under the illusion that he is dealing with a First World Economy!

 

[japancool]

I've heard nothing for small businesses.

 

[The Byre]

I've heard nothing for small businesses.

Nor are you likely to - it was just a crowd-pleaser budget of vapid soundbites with some extra jam for those who have enough already.

"A poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

 

[japancool]

There's a policy on swimming pools. ???

 

[IanSuth]

On Point 4, an incentive to stay + earn in the UK generally would help, not just doctors. It's the main reason why I'm against a graduate tax instead of loans as leaving the Uk is then an incentive.

On point 2, the childcare ratios need to be relaxed, if we still need 1 educator to 3 kids, the sums say that a parent has to earn £30k just to cover the basics.

It is currently 1:4 being moved to 1:5 i beleive

 

[japancool]

When I was in kindergarten, I think there were 2 teachers for about 20 kids.

 

[IanSuth]

Just a point - the UK isn't reliant on Russian gas. Before the invasion, I think the UK only imported 5% of its gas from Russia.

It is more about being dependant upon fuels whose prices are dependant upon Russia i was using shorthand (although i believe a lot of our diesel was Russian) and through stupidity of succesive govts our electricity supply has become dependant upon gas fueled power stations meaning both gas and electric are slaves to the gas market.

Hardly risk mitigation

 

[IanSuth]

When I was in kindergarten, I think there were 2 teachers for about 20 kids.

How old were you, this is the current situation in uk

What are the current childcare ratios?​

The childcare ratio refers to the number of qualified staff necessary in an early years setting to the number of children, and the qualification level of the staff. The current regulations concerning child to staff ratios in England are in the EYFS Statutory Framework (paras 3.28 to 3.44). In early years settings in England, the ratios are:

• One adult for every three children under two years olds;
• One adult for every four children aged two;
• One adult for every eight children aged three and over (the ratio is 1:13 if led by a teacher).

In fact it is a bit more nuanced as apprentices and anyone 17 don't count as adults and you need various paediatric first aid quals plus a min number of people with a lv3 qualification and at least half of the rest with lv2 etc etc see https://assets.publishing.service.g...a/file/974907/EYFS_framework_-_March_2021.pdf

 

[japancool]

How old were you, this is the current situation in uk

5 or 6, I think. I might be wrong, it was a long, long time ago.

Although for clarification, this wasn't in the UK.

I remember the teachers were Irish.

 

[Duke Fame]

It is currently 1:4 being moved to 1:5 i beleive

Yes, it's 1:3 for under 2s currently. I don't think the 1:5 has gone through yet but at 1:3 or 1:4, a quick calculation on NMW tells you it's never going to be affordable.

 

[IanSuth]

And just seen this which makes the entire policy Chocolate teapot, over a year until the very first changes kick in.

I guess the second dates covers all those conceived before today just so nobody can use it as an excuse for ignoring birth control tonight and Sep 25 will be after another election

When will free childcare changes begin?​

Working parents of two-year-olds will be able to access 15 hours of free care from April 2024.
From September 2024, 15 hours will be extended to all children from 9 months upwards.
And from September 2025 every single working parent of under-fives will have access to 30 hours free childcare per week.

 

[Newchodge]

When I was in kindergarten, I think there were 2 teachers for about 20 kids.

How many of those were 18 months old?

 

[japancool]

How many of those were 18 months old?

The teachers? Neither of them...

Seriously though, none of the kids were under 18, it was a bit later than that.

 

[IanSuth]

The issue is going to be this

To cover the extra childcare needs extra nursery staff (as there is not enough available even at present) and in fact extra premises.

Whilst the lv2 is a free online course you can do in 6 weeks (yes really)

The lv3 of which 1 is needed per "room" is a 2 year course which tends to start in Sep and which you would be applying for about.....now.#

So IF you can persuade people it is a good career and you get the colleges to up the number of places all within about a month maybe 2 then you may start to see a few more qualified people by July 2025.

Of course you could hope that the present lv2's would train up but the nurseries are currently understaffed (friends daughter who is a lv3 is doing double shifts and taking no lunches so they stay compliant), they can't afford to pay more until the money comes in from any changes so catch22

Go and try and find the closest course to yourselves as a challenge - closest i could find is at an agricultural college as despite a link being given to Reading college they dont seem to offer it anymore at lv3 - https://www.berkshireopportunities....416c6-e826-4b67-accb-c1b8b911e8c5&serviceid=e

 

[japancool]

and in fact extra premises.

On which they will pay the unreformed business rates, of course.

 

[IanSuth]

Oh i forgot to mention you can't get the lv3 signed off unless you have a A*-C in Maths and English at GCSE (or equivalent qualification)

 

[japancool]

I can speak English, I learn it from a book.

 

[japancool]

45p tax band will now start at £125,140 instead of £150,000.

 

[Newchodge]

45p tax band will now start at £125,140 instead of £150,000.

I didn't hear there were any changes in tax thresholds. Where has that come from?

 

[japancool]

I didn't hear there were any changes in tax thresholds. Where has that come from?

I didn't hear it either, but the BBC has reported it here:

What the 2023 Budget means for you and your money

Childcare, energy bill support, pensions and more will affect your finances. This is the impact on you.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Newchodge]

I didn't hear it either, but the BBC has reported it here:

What the 2023 Budget means for you and your money

Childcare, energy bill support, pensions and more will affect your finances. This is the impact on you.

www.bbc.co.uk

It was announced last time round:

Another announcement made in the last big statement is that the highest rate of income tax - which is 45% currently on earnings above £150,000 - will be paid on earnings of more than £125,140 from April.

 

[Duke Fame]

The issue is going to be this

To cover the extra childcare needs extra nursery staff (as there is not enough available even at present) and in fact extra premises.

Whilst the lv2 is a free online course you can do in 6 weeks (yes really)

The lv3 of which 1 is needed per "room" is a 2 year course which tends to start in Sep and which you would be applying for about.....now.#

So IF you can persuade people it is a good career and you get the colleges to up the number of places all within about a month maybe 2 then you may start to see a few more qualified people by July 2025.

Of course you could hope that the present lv2's would train up but the nurseries are currently understaffed (friends daughter who is a lv3 is doing double shifts and taking no lunches so they stay compliant), they can't afford to pay more until the money comes in from any changes so catch22

Go and try and find the closest course to yourselves as a challenge - closest i could find is at an agricultural college as despite a link being given to Reading college they dont seem to offer it anymore at lv3 - https://www.berkshireopportunities....416c6-e826-4b67-accb-c1b8b911e8c5&serviceid=e

This is where the ratios are wrong, the lower the ratio, the more child-carers we need.

 

[japancool]

OBR expects house prices to drop 10%.

Finally, some good news.

 

[Newchodge]

This is where the rations are wrong, the lower teh ration, the more child-carers we need.

ration?

 

[MBE2017]

Level 3 childcare is paid in most areas just above NMW, cleaners earn more in this area. My disabled daughter is a level 3, with almost ten years experience.

Most nurseries treat their staff very badly IMO, very overworked on the whole and the work is relentless.

 

[japancool]

ration?

Bully beef and chips.

 

[Duke Fame]

It was announced last time round:

Another announcement made in the last big statement is that the highest rate of income tax - which is 45% currently on earnings above £150,000 - will be paid on earnings of more than £125,140 from April.

Yep, that was in the Autumn statement. Hunt took a leaf out of the Gordon Brown book and set the threshold to pay the higher rate to just above an Mp's (cabinet member's) pay, funny that!!

It would not affect me sadly but I can see some wondering if Kwasi can come back!

 

[Duke Fame]

ration?

Apologies, autocorrect going mad. The Child - educator ratios, it's this that is making costs too much, especially with NMW increasing.

 

[IanSuth]

Level 3 childcare is paid in most areas just above NMW, cleaners earn more in this area. My disabled daughter is a level 3, with almost ten years experience.

Most nurseries treat their staff very badly IMO, very overworked on the whole and the work is relentless.

100% agree with this and lv3's seem to get it worst. responsibility without reward and expected to cover for absent lv2's , lv3's on leave, failure to recruit enough lv3's

A govt pronouncing £ for parents in 2 years time does nothing for those staff now as the employers have no extra money now to pay them.

 

[japancool]

Yep, that was in the Autumn statement. Hunt took a leaf out of the Gordon Brown book and set the threshold to pay the higher rate to just above an Mp's (cabinet member's) pay, funny that!!

The total salary of a Minister of State is £167,192 (including their MP's salary).

 

[Duke Fame]

The total salary of a Minister of State is £167,192 (including their MP's salary).

Oh really, I think I could go for that then!!

I've always thought an MPs salary should be linked to what they earn pre-election.