It's not over yet - EU

[APW]

One mans racism is another mans cleansing....it's all about perspective.

Just like the remainers think (or know in Scott's case) we are all doomed while the outers don't know what will happen except there will be a change that they desire.

 

[Clinton]

This is a classic today: video of Farage addressing the chamber

Numerous great moments. My favourite: Farage looks around him and says that almost nobody there has done a day's work in their lives, it's priceless. When noisy protests interrupt him , Scultz stops to announce, "Ladies and gentlemen, I do notice that you're getting emotional, but you're acting like UKIP normally acts in this chamber. So, please, don't irritate them". Don't irritate them!

I spat my coffee all over the keyboard.

 

[Mark T Jones]

You wouldn't want him on your PR team, would you?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...rats-fight-election-halting-brexit-tim-farron

Interesting. I wonder how the Lib Dems will perform by appealing so heavily to the 16,141,241 who voted remain.

 

[Clinton]

Correction to my previous post: Shultz may have been saying "immitate" and not "irritate", the audio is not very clear.

 

[boring-friday]

it has with an economy 6 times larger than our own.

We risk losing 45% of our export trade. Individual EU members risk losing no more than 2%-10% of their export trade each. The mere statement of "the consequences would be far worse for you than they would be for us" is astonishingly false.

Lol you can't switch between talking about the EU has a whole and the shitty little countries that it comprises of when it suits.

Either 6 times bigger than our economy and losing more trade than we are or smaller than our economy and losing less trade

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Lol you can't switch between talking about the EU has a whole and the shitty little countries that it comprises of when it suits.

Either 6 times bigger than our economy and losing more trade than we are or smaller than our economy and losing less trade

Of course you can.

Either way, the numbers remain similar obviously, as the total EU exports to the UK are made up of the export shares of all members within it. EU exports alone with the rest of the world are worth more than the entire GDP of the United Kingdom. Whether you consider the EU together, or you split it up into its constituent parts, we still rely on the EU far more than they rely on us.

Even with Germany, their exports to the UK account for only 7.4% of their total.

So you have to consider it in two ways:

1). The collective EU - because the collective members will decide on the same agreement together, and individual members are not allowed to conduct independent FTAs with us. It's either an FTA with the entire EU, or nothing.

2). The individual members - because these members will still have to vote individually on the negotiation deal where their own personal interests come into play. Whilst some individual EU members have a good chunk of trade with us, the majority do not. This means that most EU members will have very little vested interest in giving us a more favourable trade deal than they think we deserve.

It's not the EU we have to convince to give us the terms we want. It's the qualified majority of its members who all get to vote independently. Most of them obviously refuse to undermine their own EU membership and won't allow free single market access unless we accept free movement and continue to pay like everyone else does.

If we're lucky, we might get to continue with free movement of labour only, but even that will not necessarily be accepted.

 

[john1989]

Even with Germany, their exports to the UK account for only 7.4% of their total.
QUOTE]

Do you realise how big and important that 7.4% is to the German economy?

 

[MBE1]

Most of them obviously refuse to undermine their own EU membership and won't allow free single market access unless we accept free movement and continue to pay like everyone else does.

If we're lucky, we might get to continue with free movement of labour only, but even that will not necessarily be accepted.

Or we might have something completely different, people are blinkered to keep bringing up free movement of labour, the main plank of the leave campaign was to gain control of our own borders, I don't think such a deal would gain public support.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Do you realise how big and important that 7.4% is to the German economy?

Yes. 7.4%.

Some of that will be things like car components going to the BMW assembly plant in Cowley. BMW have already moved some car production to Holland and could easily move more.

 

[john1989]

Yes. 7.4%.

Some of that will be things like car components going to the BMW assembly plant in Cowley. BMW have already moved some car production to Holland and could easily move more.

Oh dear.

 

[ShirleyM]

Some of that will be things like car components going to the BMW assembly plant in Cowley. BMW have already moved some car production to Holland and could easily move more.

Holland may be unlucky. It may go to Poland, or even Turkey! The EU has hardly protected UK jobs, has it? As you say, they can move anytime they like and many already have, and they were not linked to Brexit at all. At least it won't be our money that is used to bribe companies to take jobs away from the UK. That was adding insult to injury. At least Brexit means we will be able to save the jobs in our UK ports from being ruined by the EU.

 

[bharris]

Well don't buy a BMW or a pollution cheating VW. Buy a car that comes from outside the EU (preferably made in the UK). For years we have had our manufacturing industries bought by none UK organisations stripped and then relocated. We have now ended up with a low skilled workforce and a country that imports far too many products. We have a great opportunity to readdress this, start investing in ourselves and stop selling any of our good ideas and businesses to the highest bidder.

As a serious question do you think there will be a backlash against EU products if they play hard-ball?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Do you realise how big and important that 7.4% is to the German economy?

Do you realise how big and important 45% of the UK's export trade is to the UK economy?

I don't understand the supposed idea that Germany will bend over backwards to save 7.4% of their export trade, whilst apparently risking 45% of our export trade is no big deal.

If tariffs and quotas come in, then 54% of our imports become more expensive and our consumer prices go up, whilst 45% of our export trade becomes more restricted and less competitive.

No other country in the EU even comes close to being in that situation. It will affect 4-5 times more of our imports and exports than any other EU member. Be as optimistic as you like, but the EU has us over a barrel in these negotiations. It's as simple as that.

 

[john1989]

Do you realise how big and important 45% of the UK's export trade is to the UK economy?

I don't understand the supposed idea that Germany will bend over backwards to save 7.4% of their export trade, whilst apparently risking 45% of our export trade is no big deal.

If tariffs and quotas come in, then 54% of our imports become more expensive and our consumer prices go up, whilst 45% of our export trade becomes more restricted and less competitive.

No other country in the EU even comes close to being in that situation. It will affect 4-5 times more of our imports and exports than any other EU member. Be as optimistic as you like, but the EU has us over a barrel in these negotiations. It's as simple as that.

Please for the love of god start comparing like for like. It's starting to get embarrassing.

You are comparing Germany export figures to the UK with the UK's export figures to the EU which comprises of 27 countries.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Or we might have something completely different, people are blinkered to keep bringing up free movement of labour, the main plank of the leave campaign was to gain control of our own borders, I don't think such a deal would gain public support.

Exactly!

My whole point here is that the next Government is extremely likely to allow the free movement of labour in exchange for continued access to the single market. Dan Hannan, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have all advocated (after the referendum of course) continued single market access with continued free movement of people or labour. See for yourself:

And believe me, the EU will not budge on free movement. Norway and Switzerland must abide by it as well. There's no guarantee they would accept free movement of labour, either. Even that is pushing it.

So we are highly likely to find ourselves in the situation in the next 2 years where the EU exit agreement involves continued payments, continued following of regulations and the free movement of labour. Will leave supporters be happy? Certainly not. That is when the penny drops and the fireworks really start to happen.

The biggest flaw in the Brexit vote: believing that a vote to leave is also a vote for what the UK will do once we've left. They're two very different things.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Please for the love of god start comparing like for like. It's starting to get embarrassing.

You are comparing Germany export figures to the UK with the UK's export figures to the EU which comprises of 27 countries.

You don't seem to understand how this works.

As an EU member, you are not allowed to negotiate independent trade deals with other countries. You can only arrange them with the EU which negotiates on behalf of everyone for a EU-wide FTA with the partnership country.

If we could negotiate our own FTAs with individual EU members, then great. Problem solved. We could just sort out amazing trade deals with Germany, France, the Netherlands and a few others, and then who cares about the rest.

Unfortunately, we can't do that. It's a free trade arrangement with the whole EU, or it's no FTA at all.

So for that reason, whilst every individual EU member risks disruption of only 3-10% of their export trade, we risk disruption to 45% of ours.

It will never just be a bad deal with only one of the EU members. It can only ever be the same bad deal with all 27, which make up 45% of our exports.

This has always been one of the main negotiating strengths of the EU. However, we are now unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of it.

 

[ShirleyM]

We will not have free movement of people.

The UK will always bear the brunt of free movement while in the EU/EEA, merely because it is English speaking, and many Europeans have English as their second language. There will be serious consequences (I'll try doing a Juncker!) if we do not control our borders and limit immigration to the type of people we need. In particular, we want people with health insurance and no criminal record. We spend a fortune housing EU criminals in our prisons, and are often prevented from deporting them.

 

[ShirleyM]

You don't seem to understand how this works.

If we could negotiate our own FTAs with individual EU members, then great. Problem solved. We could just sort out amazing trade deals with Germany, France, the Netherlands and a few others, and then who cares about the rest.

Unfortunately, we can't do that. It's a free trade arrangement with the whole EU, or it's no FTA at all.

Of course we understand it. Leavers feel that the advantages (which REDUCE every year) do NOT outweigh the disadvantages (which INCREASE every year). Time to let go of this crap trade deal before it swallows us whole and we become a mere state of a federal EU we do not want to be in.

 

[Ian J]

And believe me, the EU will not budge on free movement.

Jean-Claude, how do you manage to find the time to fit in so many posts on an internet forum with your job as President of the European Parliament?

 

[simon field]

Isn't there a big difference between free movement of people and free movement of labour?

 

[Toby Willows]

Isn't there a big difference between free movement of people and free movement of labour?

All depends whether you are a doom and gloom scaremongering remainer who wants to make out we won't get control of our borders back, therefore leavers voted for something we won't get, so we better have another referendum (which is bloody ironic as some of them have been previously insisting we had control of our borders all along). Or someone who can think rationally, without an agenda, and realise the difference between free movement of labour and free movement of people.

However, seeing as a minority of the minority remainers know what's best there obviouy is no difference.

 

[john1989]

You don't seem to understand how this works.

As an EU member, you are not allowed to negotiate independent trade deals with other countries. You can only arrange them with the EU which negotiates on behalf of everyone for a EU-wide FTA with the partnership country.

If we could negotiate our own FTAs with individual EU members, then great. Problem solved. We could just sort out amazing trade deals with Germany, France, the Netherlands and a few others, and then who cares about the rest.

Unfortunately, we can't do that. It's a free trade arrangement with the whole EU, or it's no FTA at all.

So for that reason, whilst every individual EU member risks disruption of only 3-10% of their export trade, we risk disruption to 45% of ours.

It will never just be a bad deal with only one of the EU members. It can only ever be the same bad deal with all 27, which make up 45% of our exports.

This has always been one of the main negotiating strengths of the EU. However, we are now unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of it.

I understand perfectly well.

You seem to be under the impression that exports and imports to the EU are going to grind to halt. What do you know that I don't?

If a supplier stops supplying you, you find another supplier. If a customer stops buying from you, you find another customer. Businesses adapt, and if the EU play silly buggers, the UK will adapt too.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I understand perfectly well.

You seem to be under the impression that exports and imports to the EU are going to grind to halt. What do you know that I don't?

If a supplier stops supplying you, you find another supplier. If a customer stops buying from you, you find another customer. Businesses adapt, and if the EU play silly buggers, the UK will adapt too.

When Vodaphone, Nissan, BMW, the Banks and others relocate to the EU then our exports will reduce and our imports will increase.

Have you ever been involved in trying to get overseas customers?

 

[john1989]

When Vodaphone, Nissan, BMW, the Banks and others relocate to the EU then our exports will reduce and our imports will increase.

Have you ever been involved in trying to get overseas customers?

'When'.
Again, who says they are going to move exactly?

I've never worked in sales. I work in accountancy. But I don't need sales experience to know the challenges of acquiring customers both domestic and overseas. You learn and understand these challenges when you are frequenting management meetings.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

'When'.
Again, who says they are going to move exactly?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36656039

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/richard-branson-reveals-cost-brexit-8299788

http://news.sky.com/story/1718832/brexit-jobs-threat-at-credit-card-giant-visa

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...test-jobs-single-market-effects-a7104351.html

They do, and we're only 6 days in.

And this is all after the referendum result, so claims of "project fear" are redundant now.

You're right. Businesses will adapt. They'll adapt by moving their operations out of the UK and back into the EU. The EU and its members will also be more than happy for that to happen as it brings more productivity, economic growth and tax revenues back to them.

 

[simon field]

In fairness though Scott, it seems those are dependent on being in the single market.

 

[john1989]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36656039


‘Warned’. Also, other than employment, Vodafone don’t have a good track record for contributing to the economy. If they left, I would hope another provider captalise on it. It would save jobs and ensure tax is paid.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/richard-branson-reveals-cost-brexit-8299788


Branson was scaremongering from the start of the campaign. Any claim by him has to be taken with a large pinch of salt.

http://news.sky.com/story/1718832/brexit-jobs-threat-at-credit-card-giant-visa


‘Could’.

‘No decisions about relocating jobs has been taken and is unlikely to be until the detail of Britain's future trading arrangements with the EU are close to being finalised.’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...test-jobs-single-market-effects-a7104351.html


I’m glad it mentioned it further down the article, because I was going to mention it. HSBC already threatened to take a lot of UK jobs to Hong Kong.



The fact is Grim, that these are just knee-jerk reactions and nothing is set in stone. None of those articles confirm anything.


If jobs leave the UK for the EU, then one would hope that the UK government put things in place that hinders their ability to see to the UK, which would create business opportunities for those remaining in the UK.

 

[SamLH]

They do, and we're only 6 days in.

One of the very first lines say - It was too early to "draw any firm conclusions regarding the long-term location for the headquarters".

Seriously.... do you not have any evidence so your resulting to inconclusive news reports which are only wrote to get advertising revenue from idiots that will read any junk and have very little academic or factual substance?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Isn't there a big difference between free movement of people and free movement of labour?

In theory, yes.

In practice, not a lot.

It means that anyone who has secured a job of any type in the UK will have free right to live in the UK and take up that job.

According to trade data, just under 50% of EU nationals come here with a job offer already in place. This may mean that net EU migration will drop by 50%, but considering that non-EU migration is already higher, this may reduce the overall net migration into the UK by 20-25% at the most.

It's a reasonably big chunk, but perhaps not the huge drop in immigration Brexiteers were expecting - and at what cost to the UK economy?

 

[Clinton]

Scott, I know a lot of people are upset at the result and there are good arguments for staying within the EU, but the vote is done and is being widely accepted as final - by the PM, all the candidates for next PM, the EU. While there are protests, a massive petition etc., the likelihood is that we are going.

I hear all that you say about hits to the economy and other disasters awaiting us. And you may be right. In the short term there will be damage. But you underestimate the talent and entrepreneurial spirit of the Brits. Unfettered by the EU they will reach new trade deals with other countries, trade deals which the EU can't reach because it's so big and cumbersome and has so many competiting interests. It's possible that after a period of economic shock and adjustment we emerge much, much stronger, more happy and more wealthy.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Seriously.... do you not have any evidence so your resulting to inconclusive news reports which are only wrote to get advertising revenue from idiots that will read any junk and have very little academic or factual substance?

It's just very, very, very basic common sense.

1). Businesses base their European operations here.
2). Single market access becomes disrupted and regulations change.
3). These businesses move their operations out of the UK and back into the EU which solves all of these problems.

Why on earth would so many businesses - which are based here within the EU, within the single market and within a consistent regulatory framework to serve the whole European market - NOT move back into the EU when we are completely cut loose?

Why would they keep their EU-wide operation bases outside of the EU and deal with all of the future uncertainty, passporting, carnets and regulatory problems that will bring?

Why stay when moving back into the EU dramatically reduces their own risk and dramatically reduces their own vulnerability to the effects of Brexit whilst putting them in a MORE favourable trading position with the majority of their own customers?

It's an absolute no-brainer.

Of course, all these problems would be solved if the UK remains in the single market and continues to align regulations, but like every other country, there's a price to pay for that. Like every other non-EU country with single market access, you pay into the budget, abide by legislation changes and allow the free movement of people. Even access with free movement of labour only has never been allowed before and may not be enough, but we'll see when that is proposed.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I hear all that you say about hits to the economy and other disasters awaiting us. And you may be right. In the short term there will be damage. But you underestimate the talent and entrepreneurial spirit of the Brits. Unfettered by the EU they will reach new trade deals with other countries, trade deals which the EU can't reach because it's so big and cumbersome and has so many competiting interests. It's possible that after a period of economic shock and adjustment we emerge much, much stronger, more happy and more wealthy.

I sincerely hope you're right. My business is based in the UK. I'd obviously rather see the UK as prosperous as possible.

At least you accept that there will be economic damage. My concern is just how long that economic damage is going to last before prosperity returns, as I'm sure it will eventually as we build everything back up.

Considering we may lose full single market access, and we will lose the 25 EU-based FTAs we currently benefit from, and the other 40 EU FTAs which are part-way through negotiations, I do think that it may be 30+ years before we are no longer lumbered by the effects of Brexit.

FTAs take on average 10 years to complete, even just between two individual countries. Frankly, the UK Civil Service doesn't have the manpower to do it any faster. With public sector cuts, they struggle just to run the country never mind taking on this massive task as well.

Switzerland are doing fine now, but they do have single market access through the EFTA (still requiring the free movement of people), and have also had a 30 year head start over us:

https://www.seco.admin.ch/seco/en/h...iste_der_Freihandelsabkommen_der_Schweiz.html

We'll get there, I'm sure, but it's going to be a long road ahead to build back up from square one.

 

[Clinton]

Scott, alongside the economic damage there are be economic opportunities to exploit as well.

At the moment we've got a ridiculously low pound. Remember, how just a few months ago nations around the world were competing to devalue their currency and central banks got together to discuss how to stop the race to the bottom?

We were in that race. We won it. By a country mile.

Now we've got a pound that's at its lowest level for decades. And guess what? We're still in the EU complete with all the FTA advantages! This could persist for the next two years or more (depending on when we trigger Article 50).

If I were the next PM, I'd stall and stall and stall on Article 50. Play those cards right and we could show more economic growth in the next couple of years than India (with its own political problems particularly with the RBI, their central bank) ... and China with its huge debt problems.

So the case for huge immediate economic loss is not set in stone.

You're right that the UK has lost a lot of its FTA negotiating talent, but we've got talent used to arguing our case in the EU and they could be redeployed. Do we need to wait 10 years for new FTAs? Not at all. We need to wait probably for the 2 years of Article 50 and till we're properly out of the EU, but I'll put a lot of money on a bet that we'll have half a dozen new trade agreements with a year or two of leaving. No question about it.

The EU, too, will benefit from us leaving. They've got their heads so far up their asses they've lost all touch with reality. And nobody is disputing this, not even the EU. Perhaps Britain leaving will bring about badly needed changes. In fact, Britain on the sidelines stalling on Article 50 will cause enough panic about contagion and collateral damage to get some action going.

Brexit could possibly be the best thing the EU has seen in its history: One country that, at a huge economic and political risk, was big and bold enough to stand up and say that the emperor has no clothes.

 

[bharris]

If the word "could" was banned form being used in factual news reporting. It would stop all this pointless chit chat and enable people to get on with there work and have a more enjoyable life.

Just my observation from TV news flicking today, there has been a shift from a re-vote in attempted manipulation towards the UK never actually triggering article 50. This is not what the people voted for.

Yesterday Jean-Claude Juncker made a speech categorically stating that ANY discussions regarding the UK leaving are completely forbidden until the UK triggers article 50. Today Nicola Sturgeon is going to see the corrupt dictator to have discussions! The whole situation is completely corrupt and there comes a time that you have to say enough is enough, have a look at your self and cancel your membership of a evil club. The EU in its current guise will not survive. As rest of the world gets more powerful the EU is becoming weaker and weaker and saddling it self the more debt in a desperate attempt to force political and monetary union across incompatible countries. The sooner we leave the better off we will be and watch the EU implode.

 

[SamLH]

It's just very, very, very basic common sense.

1). Businesses base their European operations here.
2). Single market access becomes disrupted and regulations change.
3). These businesses move their operations out of the UK and back into the EU which solves all of these problems.

Why on earth would so many businesses - which are based here within the EU, within the single market and within a consistent regulatory framework to serve the whole European market - NOT move back into the EU when we are completely cut loose?

Why would they keep their EU-wide operation bases outside of the EU and deal with all of the future uncertainty, passporting, carnets and regulatory problems that will bring?

Why stay when moving back into the EU dramatically reduces their own risk and dramatically reduces their own vulnerability to the effects of Brexit whilst putting them in a MORE favourable trading position with the majority of their own customers?

It's an absolute no-brainer.

Of course, all these problems would be solved if the UK remains in the single market and continues to align regulations, but like every other country, there's a price to pay for that. Like every other non-EU country with single market access, you pay into the budget, abide by legislation changes and allow the free movement of people. Even access with free movement of labour only has never been allowed before and may not be enough, but we'll see when that is proposed.

The UKs mobile industry is worth over £14bn, it's Vodafones biggest source of European income and now Vodafone are just going to leave because you don't agree with some vote. Good one.

Do you even know what point your trying to make, it's like you are just complaining because you didn't get your way.

 

[APW]

Scott, you say your business is based in the UK but can I ask....are you British? (ie born and raised in Britain). This is by no means a racism questions but British people have a resilience and determination that is greater than any other nation in the world

 

[Christine Hough]

As I see it we voted to have more influence and self-determination.

So what are we determined to do now?

All this talk still comes from a victim mentality (on both sides), but my question is, 'Now we have at leat a finger on the steering wheel, where do we want to go?'

It might not be an easy ride. But start with where you want to go and then look at the obstacles in the frame of, 'How to we get around them?'

Or we could sit like a rabbit caught in the headlights wondering what external forces are keeping us there!

 

[Clinton]

APW, the ability to recognise the extent of British resilience is not determined by where one was born.

 

[APW]

APW, the ability to recognise the extent of British resilience is not determined by where one was born.

This is true however Scott doesn't seem to realise what our nation is capable off.

Or he is in his early 20's who blames old people while forgetting the sacrifice they made in their youth for the British people.