It's not over yet - EU

Scott-Copywriter

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Tax is. Not only do wealthier people pay more overall, but they even pay a higher percentage whilst many other people in the "club" are a net drain.

Is that fair? Should we just split up rich and poor people as well?



If taking money allows these businesses to establish themselves better so they become stronger trade partners and ultimately give me a net return on my investment, then yes.

For every £1 we put into the EU, we get £10 back through trade. If there are any business clubs out there which could give me a 900% return on my investment, then sign me up.

Can you link evidence to your £1 - £10 return claim?

Still waiting on that evidence....the only thing I could find online which said that came from the stronger IN website....strange that in the whole of the internet there is only 1 website coming up with that figure..
 
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Scott-Copywriter

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Still waiting on that evidence....the only thing I could find online which said that came from the stronger IN website....strange that in the whole of the internet there is only 1 website coming up with that figure..

I said for every £1 we put in, we get £10 back through trade. Not that the EU pays us 10x more than we put in.

We pay around £9billion to the EU every year. The Confederation for British Industry has stated that membership of the EU is worth £91billion per year to the UK economy.

You can do the maths.

These figures are difficult to get spot on, of course, but even if that figure was off by £20billion or even more, it's still a tremendous ROI for what the UK pays in.

This is why every pro-Brexit politician, apart from Nigel Farage, is currently assuring us that access to the single market will continue. It will be an unmitigated disaster if we lose access to that whilst all our trade agreements with the rest of the world are reset to zero all at the same time (as all our current FTAs are actually EU FTAs which we can use as a member).
 
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Ok then only 1 of 2 things can happen.

1: The countries in Europe decide that they need US to keep buying their products and they need ours too. They realise that they need us just as much as we need them. They need us to buy their german and french cars, they need us to travel to their country and spend money and with the extra EU fees they will now have to pay they need us now more than ever. The media and EU and remainers will have you think we are on the back foot here but we aren't we are the ones leaving them, we can control how and when we leave and we are the ones moving onto great things.

2: All the scaremongers are right and Europe decide to cut of their nose and stop all trade with the UK and loss out on all our lovely money...so what? The planet is a big place we have a whole new world to trade with now and trade agreements across the globe will help the UK become great again.

Europe is just a small fish in big pond, she has controlled our relationship decide who we can talk to and who we can't, she has lied to us and forced us to believe we can't do any better...now we have dumped her we can see through her controlling nature...we are now free to explore a new world with new agreements.
 
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Scott-Copywriter

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Ok then only 1 of 2 things can happen.

1: The countries in Europe decide that they need US to keep buying their products and they need ours too. They realise that they need us just as much as we need them. They need us to buy their german and french cars, they need us to travel to their country and spend money and with the extra EU fees they will now have to pay they need us now more than ever. The media and EU and remainers will have you think we are on the back foot here but we aren't we are the ones leaving them, we can control how and when we leave and we are the ones moving onto great things.]

Wishful thinking, I'm afraid.

The EU accounts for 45% of our total export trade. We only account for around 12% of the EU's trade. Even Germany, the country famed for being so reliant upon us, only sends 7.4% of their total exports in our direction. Meanwhile, Germany accounts for 10.8% of our export trade, so we are far more reliant on German trade than they are on ours. We are not in a favourable position whatsoever.

Let's not also forget import trade. Whilst we appear to hold the upper hand with countries which rely on us for their export trade, the fact is they hold a trump card in that respect as well. If they increase their prices, or add tariffs, then the prices British people have to pay for consumer goods will shoot up. Combine that with the drastic fall in the Pound, and severe inflation is a possibility.

It's a GDP of $17 trillion vs a GDP of $2.8 trillion. It's like us competing with the United States. The EU's total global exports alone are worth more than the ENTIRE GDP of the UK.

2: All the scaremongers are right and Europe decide to cut of their nose and stop all trade with the UK and loss out on all our lovely money...so what? The planet is a big place we have a whole new world to trade with now and trade agreements across the globe will help the UK become great again.

The UK is already one of the most deregulated countries in the world when it comes to trade.

There is simply nothing under the sleeve of the UK which would suddenly result in a surge of global trade from outside of the EU which would even come close to offsetting the losses of the single market.

Who do you expect us to trade so heavily with? Within the EU, we already benefit from over 25 favourable FTAs with over 40 more currently being negotiated. We'll lose all of those, so it will be a monumental effort just to get back to where we were before.

This also poses a problem for existing trade. As business people, we all know that it's just not that easy to stop existing supply routes and start buying products from different countries instead - especially when those other countries may have radically different regulations.

Then you have to consider our bargaining position. Every country in FTA negotiations tries to get the best deal for itself. If we lose access to the single market, and all our FTAs are reset to zero at the same time (putting us comfortably in the worst trading position of every developed country on earth), major economies will have us bent over a barrel.

They will know that we simply cannot afford to try and bargain too hard over more favourable tariffs or quotas for ourselves. We will have to accept what we can get as quickly as possible otherwise we will be in a highly unfavourable and restricted trade position relative to every other major economy for decades to come.

Then of course, you have to consider the trading bloc alternatives, like cosying up to the United States with TTIP or NAFTA. If you think the EU is bad when it comes to enforcing regulations, that's nothing compared to latching on independently to one of these trade blocs without any say in how they work whatsoever.

If there appears to be a lot of pessimism about the economic outlook for the UK, it's because it really is just that bad I'm afraid.
 
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I believe that no matter what the result was the pound would have fallen and we would be in this situation no matter what.

Lots of people lost money but a few will make millions from it collapsing and the few don't care about the many.

However it shouldn't be doom and gloom if you are prepared to adapt and change then it will only lead to great things.

What the news is showing is that people are scared of change but that's nothing new
 
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If there appears to be a lot of pessimism about the economic outlook for the UK, it's because it really is just that bad I'm afraid.

Yet again you are posting your opinion as fact. If this country goes into recession one of the main reasons is likely to be the number of people like yourself who are talking us into one
 
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Scott-Copywriter

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I believe that no matter what the result was the pound would have fallen and we would be in this situation no matter what.

Lots of people lost money but a few will make millions from it collapsing and the few don't care about the many.

However it shouldn't be doom and gloom if you are prepared to adapt and change then it will only lead to great things.

What the news is showing is that people are scared of change but that's nothing new

The Pound actually would have skyrocketed in value in the event of remain. It peaked at the highest value it has been in years when the polls closed and every opinion poll and betting market showed remain with a huge likelihood of succeeding.

However, when the Sunderland and Newcastle results came out looking far less favourable for remain, the value of the Pound plummeted to its lowest value in over 30 years. A far sharper drop than we experienced during Black Wednesday.

I'm all for optimism, but the fact remains that we've went through years of slow growth and strict austerity even with the highly favourable trading position we were in as part of the single market with plenty of FTAs to benefit from. They are now at risk of being wiped out, and if you combine that with years of uncertainty ahead, it's about to get a whole lot worse.

The only shred of hope we have is to thrash out an exit negotiation with the EU which gives us continued access to the single market. That way, at least 45% of our trade will continue with fewer problems whilst we spend the next few decades building our global trade agreements back up.

However, there will be a price to pay. Free movement of labour is a virtual certainty, as is continuing to abide by all current and future regulations.

When it comes to the fee, Norway pays more per capita into the EU than we do, and that's even whilst allowing free movement of people. We'll definitely lose our rebate, so payments to the EU are highly likely to be more than they are now.

When politicians, even the pro-leave ones, claim that the UK will be fine, that's purely on the basis that we will preserve as much of the existing trade infrastructure with the EU as we possibly can. In the decades ahead, I'm sure we can build back up to a similar situation we're in now when it comes to trade, but it's critical that we preserve what we've already got as much as possible and as quickly as possible.

Leave supporters won't like that one bit, but our next Government won't have a choice. Boris Johnson and Theresa May share this approach, as does Michael Gove, Dan Hannan and even Jeremy Hunt:

‘What I am making the argument for is what I call the ‘Norway-plus’ model. Norway is a member of the single market, they have full access to the world’s largest single market.

‘They get all the jobs and prosperity and we need that as a great trading nation. But what we need is something else, which is a sensible restriction on the free movement rules which have created the immigration that has worried a lot of people.’

You also have to consider something Boris, Hannan and others have already mentioned: the vote to leave was far from overwhelming. Almost half of the country still wants to remain in the EU, and as hugely pro-remain 15-17 year olds move into voting age in the next three years, the balance of the electorate is likely to shift back to remain.

The urge to keep 17,410,742 leavers happy suddenly isn't as universal as it appears when there are 16,141,241 remainers vying for closer ties to the EU, which is a number likely to increase considerably in the next few years.

There's every possibility that in two years time, our next Government could continue with a heavily integrated associate member status with the EU to give our economy hope, with most of the same requirements we have now, AND get the backing of a slim majority of the public to do that.
 
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Yet again you are posting your opinion as fact. If this country goes into recession one of the main reasons is likely to be the number of people like yourself who are talking us into one

You can't really blame him for believing the media/politicians and being scared...it's their job to make people scared that's how they control the sheep.

Remember Y2K? They had us convinced it was gonna be the end of the world and come midnight...nothing....everything just carried on as normal. The same thing will happen here
 
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quikshop

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As a 'dabbler' on the markets I'm genuinely looking around for the facts behind the £billions lost story.

I looked at 2 stocks I track;

TESCO: Price today £1.58 per share. Price in January, £1.39.
BARCLAYS: Price today £1.35 per share. Price in April, £1.47.

I could check more if anyone wants a more representative sample.

The price of shares rose dramatically in the days leading up to the referendum result. For those who want to know that was largely due to institutions buying up shares so their clients can take short positions... basically they all expected a Brexit win.

If you analyse the coverage, every report is pre-qualified with "In the last few days" or "since Brexit". It is highly selective reporting... there are a lot of institutions making an awful lot of money from this faux panic.
 
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Freedom is expensive
Freedom is priceless

"On Friday EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini will present top-secret plans which would see new European military and operational structures, including a headquarters.

Ms Mogherini's proposals say “security and defence is where a step change is most urgent.
The EU can step up its contribution to Europe’s security and defence.

"Our external action must become more joined up across policy areas, institutions and member states. Greater unity of purpose is needed across the policy areas making up our external action.”

However three years ago David Cameron said he would resist such a plan.

He said: "It makes sense for nation states to co-operate over matters of defence to keep us safer.

"But it isn't right for the European Union to have capabilities, armies, air forces and all the rest of it. "

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...llion-budget-NEXT-week-after-referendum-delay
 
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Scott-Copywriter

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You can't really blame him for believing the media/politicians and being scared...it's their job to make people scared that's how they control the sheep.

Remember Y2K? They had us convinced it was gonna be the end of the world and come midnight...nothing....everything just carried on as normal. The same thing will happen here

It appears I overestimated your attention span regarding this matter.

I've spelled out the exact reasons why this is going to go badly wrong economically and politically, and exactly why the next Government is going to cosy up to the EU far more than any leavers expect.

Your response is to claim that it's the media and politicians using mind control to make people scared whilst referring to us as "sheep". The real sheep are the people who believed a word the pro-Brexit politicians said.

Now you'll just have to wait and see for yourself. Brexit promises will be broken, and "project fear" will come true. It really is black and white, even if you can't see it yourself yet.

But sure. Leaving the European Union and setting our global trade infrastructure back 50 years is exactly the same as the millennium bug.
 
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quikshop

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Now you'll just have to wait and see for yourself. Brexit promises will be broken, and "project fear" will come true. It really is black and white, even if you can't see it yourself yet.

Some of your earlier stuff Scott was worth a debate, but this is just trolling.

Unless you are the reincarnate of Merlin, your predictions of future events are nothing but wishful thinking, which also raises the question why you want the UK to suffer... perhaps to get that "I told you so" moment?
 
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You also have to consider something Boris, Hannan and others have already mentioned: the vote to leave was far from overwhelming. Almost half of the country still wants to remain in the EU, and as hugely pro-remain 15-17 year olds move into voting age in the next three years, the balance of the electorate is likely to shift back to remain.

The urge to keep 17,410,742 leavers happy suddenly isn't as universal as it appears when there are 16,141,241 remainers vying for closer ties to the EU, which is a number likely to increase considerably in the next few years..

As that increasing young vote start to make a difference the whole political landscape could change. Will they really want to live in a right wing country dominated by the thinking of Farage, Johnson, Gove etc?
 
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It's the same scaremongering that they are doing now...that you are believing.

Let's see how this plays out before you make the same assumptions that is on the news.

Either that or it's just sour grapes that you didn't get your own way - if so you should grow up and accept democracy or go live in North Korea
 
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Now you'll just have to wait and see for yourself. Brexit promises will be broken, and "project fear" will come true. It really is black and white, even if you can't see it yourself yet.

Defeatism is in full swing. Set the country up for failure, and you will surely succeed. There are many countries NOT in the EU, and not only do they survive, but they actually do better than the EU. Now we can all give up and hope for the doom and gloom to infect the whole population so the Remainer can say 'I told you so', or we can go out and trade with the world.

Australia and New Zealand have put themselves at the front of the queue (so sod off Obama) and more are in the pipeline. It's early days but stop running our country down. We will do much better trading with the world instead of limiting ourselves to a very expensive, very restrictive, customs union that brings more disadvantages than advantages.
 
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Scott-Copywriter

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Some of your earlier stuff Scott was worth a debate, but this is just trolling.

Unless you are the reincarnate of Merlin, your predictions of future events are nothing but wishful thinking, which also raises the question why you want the UK to suffer... perhaps to get that "I told you so" moment?

Go and read my lengthy post above and tell me which parts you believe are untrue and why.
 
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As Boris says.. the EU is a an outdated federal system. It's time is up. It was (is) diluting the individuality, character and identity of each member country...
GB has done the only thing which has been able to force the EU to sit up and LISTEN, stop dictating and be more flexible in it's constitution. Harmony in diversity.. it is how were born to be.
Votes Stay = those that look at tomorrow (next 5 years) Vote Out = those who look 10 - 15 years ahead. It will be a tough next 5 years but the Brits are resilient (just read history books) and the end will be a better Britain.. (maybe :))
 
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Scott-Copywriter

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The fact that you're resorting to ad hominem demonstrates that you've got nothing worthwhile to contribute.

When I post this, and the only response anyone can muster is to blanket ignore every point and claim that it's fear conjured up by the media, it is rather exasperating.

When there's no "I disagree with your point, and this is why I won't think it will happen", but plenty of "that's your opinion", it really does say it all.

And if certain people honestly believe that our next Government cosying up to the EU, allowing free movement of labour, abiding by regulations and paying even more to the EU is nothing more than opinion-based "scaremongering", then certain people are in for a very rude awakening. It's all painted very clearly in everything the politicians set to lead the next Government have said so far.

But hey, let's wait and see.
 
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Pish_Pash

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As a 'dabbler' on the markets I'm genuinely looking around for the facts behind the £billions lost story.

It's also worth remembering that the companies actually listed on the stock market haven't lost a penny...NOPE, they've already trousered the dosh when they issued shares - it's the shareholders that got whacked - I concur that the ftse 100 has barely blipped in the great scheme of things (though the same can't be said of the ftse 250!)
 
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The reason no one is claiming otherwise is because unlike you no one will post assumptions as fact.

No one, including you, will know what's gonna happen other than media scaremongering NOTHING has happened so far NOTHING has changed yet but you seem to have all the facts....very strange
 
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When I post this, and the only response anyone can muster is to blanket ignore every point and claim that it's fear conjured up by the media, it is rather exasperating.

When there's no "I disagree with your point, and this is why I won't think it will happen", but plenty of "that's your opinion", it really does say it all.

And if certain people honestly believe that our next Government cosying up to the EU, allowing free movement of labour, abiding by regulations and paying even more to the EU is nothing more than opinion-based "scaremongering", then certain people are in for a very rude awakening. It's all painted very clearly in everything the politicians set to lead the next Government have said so far.

But hey, let's wait and see.

If you continue to post opinion as fact, then you shouldn't be surprised when people stop listening.

Your claim that Norway pays more per Capita than the UK is false. The UK is €139 and Norway is €107.
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-would-a-norway-style-relationship-with-the-eu-entail/

It's very easy for remainers to say that if we had stayed in the markets would have rocketed. But it's nothing more than one-sided opinion.
 
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Clinton

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    As a 'dabbler' on the markets I'm genuinely looking around for the facts behind the £billions lost story.

    I looked at 2 stocks I track;

    TESCO: Price today £1.58 per share. Price in January, £1.39.
    BARCLAYS: Price today £1.35 per share. Price in April, £1.47.

    I could check more if anyone wants a more representative sample.
    Individual stocks aren't an indication of the health of the wider market.

    Zoom out of the FTSE 100 chart and you'll see that where the FTSE is now, circa 6120, is where it was in the week before the referendum. In fact it's fluctuated above and below that point for the most of the last twelve months. The lowest point it hit in the aftermath of the surprise Brexit result was 5725. In Jan the FTSE was a lot worse at 5570 Jan. The low of the year was even lower than that 5465 in Feb.

    The biggest shock to the FTSE 100 since the financial crisis of 2008 caused it to cough, clear its throat, and return to exactly where it was.

    The FTSE 250 was always more likely to be hit and it was hit harder, but it dropped just to the point where it was in Feb this year (and it opened 3% up today). That's normal stock market fluctutations for you. Not the end of the world.

    I sympathise with the Remain arguments about our population being conned a bit, about this protest vote not being a good way to take long term decisions etc., but we should stick to facts. Like the pound, for example. That has been hit hard. And most people don't understand the repercussions of such a sharp adjustment to a currency.
     
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    I've spelled out the exact reasons why this is going to go badly wrong economically and politically, and exactly why the next Government is going to cosy up to the EU far more than any leavers expect.

    Your response is to claim that it's the media and politicians using mind control to make people scared whilst referring to us as "sheep". The real sheep are the people who believed a word the pro-Brexit politicians said.

    Now you'll just have to wait and see for yourself. Brexit promises will be broken, and "project fear" will come true. It really is black and white, even if you can't see it yourself yet.

    You have spelled out why you think things are going wrong, that doesn't mean you are correct. Everyone expected a shock to the markets, it is happening, a self fullfilled phrophecy.

    I agree the next Gov / Prime Minister will try to sell us out, they always do, but any politician wanting to go against the democratic will is unlikely to remain long either, many remainers might even join the leavers in the protection of the democratic will of the UK.

    The media is totally biased with the London bubble of superich, as with our politicians, totally out of step with the majority, has it occurred to yourself you could actually be controlled? It is a standard way for the Gov to operate, look at how project fear was seen through by many, despite understanding the risks some things are worth more than £ in your pocket.

    As for things being black and white, that all depends on whether you allow it to be.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    https://amp.twimg.com/v/0e750643-cb63-4867-89e7-cdb8e7bdc47e

    Nice to see Farage winding up the EU Parliament even further and then backtracking as he states the importance of a tariff-free deal. That will bode well for our negotiations.

    There's a good reason why many of the MEPs there held their heads in their hands in utter disbelief. The biggest flaw in this entire campaign to exit the EU is that Nigel, like many others, grossly overestimates just how important the UK is and how much leverage it has with an economy 6 times larger than our own.

    We risk losing 45% of our export trade. Individual EU members risk losing no more than 2%-10% of their export trade each. The mere statement of "the consequences would be far worse for you than they would be for us" is astonishingly false.

    The man is an ego-driven maniac who is using his deep, personal hatred of the EU as a political plaything as he openly mocks the people who are ultimately going to hold most of the aces.

    But what he said is really quite telling. With his limp warning of the consequences and pleading for a "sensible deal", he knows just how difficult the EU is going to be in these negotiations. Unfortunately, he's no doubt just made those negotiations even worse.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    Meanwhile in a speech to the German parliament, Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the EU was strong enough to survive without the UK.

    She said she respected the result and warned the bloc would not tolerate British "cherry-picking" when it came to negotiations.

    "There must be and will be a noticeable difference between whether a country wants to be a member of the European Union family or not," she said.

    But what about all those German carmakers who surely wouldn't tolerate such a thing?

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36646251

    Matthias Wissmann, from the German Automotive Industry Association, said the UK would have to accept the "bitter pill" of free movement.

    Restricting access to the UK was a key promise of the Leave campaign.

    Leave campaigners also argued that, to help car exports, Germany would push for a generous trade deal with the UK.

    However, the German carmakers appear to be taking a tough line.

    "We don't like to build new barriers... but any bid to secure full access to the single market would necessarily come with conditions. Everyone who negotiates on the British side will understand that," Mr Wissmann said.

    "If you want full access to the market, that comes necessarily with the free movement of people. That's the bitter pill the Brexiteers have to accept," he added.

    Oh. Seems they agree with Merkel.
     
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    Toby Willows

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    Hitler promised not to invade Czechoslovakia....Obama said we would be back of the queue....welcome to the real world

    Ah yes, there's a contradiction. As I recall that Hitler chap was almost certainly a touch racist, but he was defiantly in favour of a united Europe, I believe he actually put more resources and effort into uniting Europe than anyone else before or since. People didn't want it then either, so doesn't that actually make "remain" voters racist? And why are the remain brigade so surprised by Thursday's result?

    BTW, I'm using "remain" logic here!
     
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