How high will inflation go ?

[Justin Smith]

Actually I have recently thought a really good business would be a van and ladder and go around offering to remove old roof top aerials now laying across roofs or half supported on rusting brackets - before they fall and crash through a roof. You might even be able to get a kick back from insurers like the windscreen repair people as it will save money in the long run.

I mean just look next time you drive down a residential street at the number of now disused aerials just sat there waiting to fall

This is undeniably true, though I do wonder how many people might want to start using their aerials for FREEview once they decide to junk Netflix / Sky / Amazon etc to save money.....

 

[fisicx]

This is undeniably true, though I do wonder how many people might want to start using their aerials for FREEview once they decide to junk Netflix / Sky / Amazon etc to save money.....

Most people can get freeview on a smart TV. No need for an aerial. There is also an app for your phone and tablet.

 

[Justin Smith]

Most people can get freeview on a smart TV. No need for an aerial. There is also an app for your phone and tablet.

I think you are looking at this from an IT specialists POV.
Isn't that mainly catch up services, it isn't all the channels, plus you have to watch the effin' adverts.... We watch nearly all our TV through our Freeview recorders, the odd time we watch anything on catch up it's incredibly annoying that you cannot fast forward through the adverts.
As an aside I do wonder if one of the reasons the commercial channels want to push online TV is they can probably charge more for the ads as viewers cannot FF through them !

 

[IanSuth]

This is undeniably true, though I do wonder how many people might want to start using their aerials for FREEview once they decide to junk Netflix / Sky / Amazon etc to save money.....

I reckon a lot will find they need new/repaired ones to get a decent reception looking at the stae of most around here. From my window I can see maybe 2 or 3 on a vertical pole - the rest are at a "jaunty" angle

 

[IanSuth]

I think you are looking at this from an IT specialists POV.
Isn't that mainly catch up services, it isn't all the channels, plus you have to watch the effin' adverts.... We watch nearly all our TV through our Freeview recorders, the odd time we watch anything on catch up it's incredibly annoying that you cannot fast forward through the adverts.
As an aside I do wonder if one of the reasons the commercial channels want to push online TV is they can probably charge more for the ads as viewers cannot FF through them !

Years ago I had a great machine think it was a LiteOn, it had a HDD and a DVD recorder as well as a freeview receiver. It allowed you to pause and run a buffer of up to 1 hr but the best thing was it had a +3min button which was great for adverts, and you could watch recordings at 1.2x or 1.5x with sound. I used to be able to watch an entire episode of things like Time team in well under 30mins without missing anything (Tony Robinson sounds hilarious at 1.5x).
Plus before the internet had as big a repository of films on it easily you could burn the films from the HDD to DVD

 

[DontAsk]

Most people can get freeview on a smart TV. No need for an aerial. There is also an app for your phone and tablet.

It doesn't work without the aerial connection. Something to do with the guide. It is supposedly being addressed,.

 

[MBE2017]

Interest rates raised by 0.5% to 2.25%, highest for fourteen years. Extra pain being poured on gradually.

 

[IanSuth]

Interest rates raised by 0.5% to 2.25%, highest for fourteen years. Extra pain being poured on gradually.

But less than the markets has priced in (they were all expecting .75% like the Fed) expect the £ to drop more vs the $ (I am wrong again - it appears to have risen slightly to $1.13)

 

[MBE2017]

But less than the markets has priced in (they were all expecting .75% like the Fed) expect the £ to drop more vs the $ (I am wrong again - it appears to have risen slightly to $1.13)

I was taken back by just 0.5%, only time will tell if this is going to be a costly mistake. Personally I think a straight 1% would have sent a much more effective signal, but the question is with such worldwide inflation, would we be inflicting such pain for very little gain?

There are signs of Asian goods starting to get lowered, we will probably now have the high demand and too little supply phase hitting us in the next six months, the bullwhip is still in play.

 

[Justin Smith]

I was taken back by just 0.5%, only time will tell if this is going to be a costly mistake. Personally I think a straight 1% would have sent a much more effective signal, but the question is with such worldwide inflation, would we be inflicting such pain for very little gain?

There are signs of Asian goods starting to get lowered, we will probably now have the high demand and too little supply phase hitting us in the next six months, the bullwhip is still in play.

But there is still loads of money around that many people saved up during the pandemic and were unable (or unwilling) to spend at the time.
Does anyone know what the figures are for cash savings at the moment ?

 

[Stedurham]

Personally I change any carpet after four years as standard when a tenant moves out, it makes renting properties much easier than trying to clean old dirty ones with furniture imprints and different shades all over them.

I put down top quality underlay but mid value carpets on top, you can strip the carpet that way and reuse the underlay, which is the most important thing quality wise.

wow your the sort of customer I need lol 4 years is a short amount of time

 

[MBE2017]

wow your the sort of customer I need lol 4 years is a short amount of time

I just find it easier and cheaper to make a place look good, rather than trying to clean an old carpet.

Plus I am a perfect landlord lol.

 

[IanSuth]

But there is still loads of money around that many people saved up during the pandemic and were unable (or unwilling) to spend at the time.
Does anyone know what the figures are for cash savings at the moment ?

Irrelevant

Those that saved cash are those whose natural inclination is to save for a rainy day, tomorrow looks rainy so they won't start spending now it will just sit in the bank (likely in the hope of a property market crash where they can buy in) or be used to pay down property based loans as interest rates start to rise.

The vast majority of those cash savings are not money the general economy is going to see any time soon - if you want to stimulate that you need to put cash in the hands of those living hand to mouth who will spend it next day (or week max) and get it straight into the economy and flowing around

But here is where the stat would be if anywhere https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth

 

[DontAsk]

But there is still loads of money around that many people saved up during the pandemic and were unable (or unwilling) to spend at the time.

Is there? Round here it looks like it's all being/been spent on home improvements and new cars.

 

[simon field]

Restaurants, cafes, coffee shops etc round here all busy.
I don’t think people are too concerned about money these days!

 

[IanSuth]

Restaurants, cafes, coffee shops etc round here all busy.
I don’t think people are too concerned about money these days!

Empty around here

Pub I have gone to for a meeting almost every Monday for the last 15 years has now decided Thu eve to Sun lunchtime opening only as not enough custom to keep open (that is with 5-15 of us each week and cribbage every other week as regulars)

 

[UKSBD]

Wetherspoon have put 32 pubs up for sale

 

[Justin Smith]

Irrelevant

Those that saved cash are those whose natural inclination is to save for a rainy day, tomorrow looks rainy so they won't start spending now it will just sit in the bank (likely in the hope of a property market crash where they can buy in) or be used to pay down property based loans as interest rates start to rise.

The vast majority of those cash savings are not money the general economy is going to see any time soon - if you want to stimulate that you need to put cash in the hands of those living hand to mouth who will spend it next day (or week max) and get it straight into the economy and flowing around

But here is where the stat would be if anywhere https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth

>>they won't start spending now it will just sit in the bank<<

What and lose 10% in value every year !

 

[Justin Smith]

Wetherspoon have put 32 pubs up for sale

Now that is worrying, particularly as Tim Martin told us how much better things would be if we left the EU !

 

[IanSuth]

>>they won't start spending now it will just sit in the bank<<

What and lose 10% in value every year !

If they think it is going to earn more by buying property when it drops yes

If i gave you 200k now what would you do with it - splurge on short term fun things or sit it in a fairly easy access place to invest when you saw an opportunity or pay off a debt

Now what about if I gave 200,000 families with kids on free school meals £1k each - what do you think they would do with it ?

 

[MBE2017]

Now what about if I gave 200,000 families with kids on free school meals £1k each - what do you think they would do with it ?

Splurge it on a holiday or the latest iPhone?

 

[NickGrogan]

>>they won't start spending now it will just sit in the bank<<

What and lose 10% in value every year !

Only if its in a UK bank.

Dollars just went up in value compared to £

 

[Justin Smith]

Can I just confirm something here, which, if true, means we are even more in the **** than I thought we were......
When we are talking growth (as in change in yearly growth since the figure for the last month), we are comparing the month with the same month last year.
Well last year we weren't fully out of Covid suppression, so if we are at about zero percent growth over the previous year things really are pretty bad.

As an example, travel restrictions were still in place up to March 2022. Basically in Sept 2021 many people were still lacking confidence in things staying normal (which they didn't anyway, remember the Omicron over reaction ?).

 

[DontAsk]

We are still 0.2% below pre-covid but not in recession according to the latest corrected figures.

 

[The Byre]

so if we are at about zero percent growth over the previous year things really are pretty bad.

Yep! That's about the size of it!

Here's a little factoid for you -

In 1993 the UK had a $1tn economy - the eqivelent of 2.6 billion ounces of gold.
In 2007 the UK had a $3tn economy - the eqivelent of 4.2 billion ounces of gold.
In 2021 the UK had a $3.2tn economy - the eqivelent of 1.8 billion ounces of gold.

In reality, the UK economy is shrinking as a result of accelerated borrowing by governments, private enterprise and private households.

Because of absurdly low interest rates, house prices in the UK have been shooting up to unrealistic levels - but they reached their genuine peak in 2007 and not today. Yes, the fugazi number on the average house was £250,000 last year and only £160,000 in 2007, but that was the equivalent of 444 ounces of gold and last year's price was the equivalent of 183 ounces.

In the 90s, people were moaning about being in negative equity, but their ave. £51,000 house was worth 201 ounces of gold! In other words, they could buy one hell of a lot more with £51k than you can buy today with £250k!

In the 17th Century, some judge said "I get three types of witnesses before my bench - liars, damned liars and specialists."

Mark Twain adapted that to "There are three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics!"

Sadly, governments everywhere have made the bending of statistics to show anything they want to show into a new art form. That means that today, nobody knows where we really are - until you measure things in real things - oil, wheat, gold, silver, things that are not usually bought on credit.

Large country estates are hardly ever bought on credit. And their prices have been falling since about 2010. Well, just a minute! Actually, no, they have not! Not if we price those estates in gold - then they have remained remarkably stable.

We must learn to look at the VALUE of things - and not the price!

 

[IanSuth]

Splurge it on a holiday or the latest iPhone?

Neither can be got for £1k

I think it more likely they would buy the kids xmas presents early and have a spend up.

The final place the £ ends up may be overseas but would go all those shops etc in the meantime

 

[IanSuth]

Large country estates are hardly ever bought on credit. And their prices have been falling since about 2010. Well, just a minute! Actually, no, they have not! Not if we price those estates in gold - then they have remained remarkably stable.

We must learn to look at the VALUE of things - and not the price!

Value on country estates in last 15 years has been based upon what grants/tax breaks you could get

MinL sold her farm/farmhouse back to the manor when Zak Goldsmith took it over (was originally the home farm), when he sold up the entire estate (following divorce) the biggest part of the sale catalogue was the bit detailing all the indemnities you had to sign to recompense him if you did something that made him have to repay a grant/tax break. They added up to more than the cost of the estate (it is now owned by a hedge fund manager who uses it at weekends only with a estate manager in her old house)
(at the time he was editor of the ecologist magazine - he took fields that had been reclaimed from dartmoor over hundreds of years and planted rubbish scrub trees on them, he also let pigs into a steeply angled field - within a year it had bare granite at the top and a pile of sludge at the bottom as the pigs broke up the grass which was holding the soil together)

 

[Talay]

.... he also let pigs into a steeply angled field - within a year it had bare granite at the top and a pile of sludge at the bottom as the pigs broke up the grass which was holding the soil together)

Proof indeed, if it were needed, that shit truly does roll down hill.

 

[Justin Smith]

Of interest :

Covid lockdowns start : which lowers supply and demand (and confidence, hence the stock market going down)

Vaccine roll out starts : confidence returns, demand (fuelled by massive government injections of money) soars, but supply only recovers slowly. And the stock market rebounds.

 

[Newchodge]

Of interest :

Covid lockdowns start : which lowers supply and demand (and confidence, hence the stock market going down)

Vaccine roll out starts : confidence returns, demand (fuelled by massive government injections of money) soars, but supply only recovers slowly. And the stock market rebounds.

That's a chart about CPI. Nothing to do with the stock mark
et, as far as I can see.

 

[Justin Smith]

That's a chart about CPI. Nothing to do with the stock mark
et, as far as I can see.

It is about inflation, I just added the info on the stock market because it explains even more about what happened and why and when. It's all linked.

 

[Justin Smith]

Inflation at about 10% ?
Don't make me laugh.
We always buy Colmans Tartare sauce and it always cost £1.
Earlier this year it went up to £1.25, which was bad enough.
But just now in Asda, it was £1.50 !

 

[fisicx]

Inflation at about 10% ?
Don't make me laugh.
We always buy Colmans Tartare sauce and it always cost £1.
Earlier this year it went up to £1.25, which was bad enough.
But just now in Asda, it was £1.50 !

That’s not how inflation works.

 

[Bob Morgan]

Inflation at about 10% ?
Don't make me laugh.
We always buy Colmans Tartare sauce and it always cost £1.
Earlier this year it went up to £1.25, which was bad enough.
But just now in Asda, it was £1.50 !

My mother always told me that Mr Colman made his fortune from NOT what was eaten - But from what was left on the plate.

 

[Justin Smith]

Justin Smith said:
Inflation at about 10% ?
Don't make me laugh.
We always buy Colmans Tartare sauce and it always cost £1.
Earlier this year it went up to £1.25, which was bad enough.
But just now in Asda, it was £1.50 !

That’s not how inflation works.

Prices rising is not how inflation works ?

 

[Justin Smith]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63465935
Treasury warns of tax rises to fill financial hole
A Treasury source did not put a figure on what they called "the fiscal black hole", but the BBC has previously been told it may need to be at least £50bn.
"It is going to be rough," the source said. "The truth is that everybody will need to contribute more in tax if we are to maintain public services."

Chickens coming home to roost ?

 

[fisicx]

Justin Smith said:
Inflation at about 10% ?
Don't make me laugh.
We always buy Colmans Tartare sauce and it always cost £1.
Earlier this year it went up to £1.25, which was bad enough.
But just now in Asda, it was £1.50 !

Prices rising is not how inflation works ?

Do some research. You have simplified a very complex mathematical model. 50% increase in the cost of a product does not mean 50% inflation.

 

[Justin Smith]

Do some research. You have simplified a very complex mathematical model. 50% increase in the cost of a product does not mean 50% inflation.

I never said it was a 50% increase or not, I simply pointed out it was way over 10%.

 

[fisicx]

I never said it was a 50% increase or not, I simply pointed out it was way over 10%.

That makes no sense at all. You can't take the increase of a single product and extrapolate anything.

 

[Justin Smith]

That makes no sense at all. You can't take the increase of a single product and extrapolate anything.

Everyone knows that inflation is way over 10%.