Has the Great Reset begun?

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The Byre

The reset of the world's financial systems may have begun this week. But to explain what has happened, I must first delve into a bit of potted history -

On August 5th, 1971, a Frech warship loaded with dollar bills and paper US treasury bonds, docked in New York harbour. The captain was under orders from President Pompidou not to return until he could bring back, France’s gold, which had up until then, been stored in the vaults of The New York Federal Reserve Bank. France had asked politely for several years, but the NY-Fed stalled them.

This left the US Treasury and the NY Fed with a problem - refuse and this will unsettle the money markets and could cause a run on the dollar, despite being on the gold standard. Or give France its gold and wave goodbye to half of the NY Fed's gold reserves. A few days later, according to NATO records, the cruiser “Océan” (originally called the “Suffren” a training vessel based at Saint-Mandrier-sur-Mer) weighed anchor with Frances gold on board.

On August 15th, 1971, 50 years of the US dollar as a fiat currency began when Nixon ordered the dollar to be taken off the gold standard. For several days afterwards, US dollars were not accepted at European banks and US tourists waving travelers' cheques were stranded.

In 1974, Kissenger negotiated a six-page deal with Saudi Arabia in which the US would give SA military support and sell them advanced US military equipment in exchange for SA agreeing to accept only US dollars for oil. The dollar as a fiat currency was rescued and the fiat petrodollar was born. The Bank of International Settlement, based in Basel, Switzerland, declares the US dollar to be the one and only tier-one unit of exchange.

In 2017, after years of negotiations, the Deutsche Bundesbank manages to its gold back from the Bank of England and from Federal Reserve Bank - some 300 tons comes home to Mutti! Most other European central banks follow suit that year. This is followed over the next few years by central banks everywhere aggressively buying and storing gold.

In 2019, the Bank of International Settlement dropped a bombshell that I must admit I (together with almost everybody else!) completely missed - the dollar was no longer the only game in town. Gold was made a tier-one unit of exchange.

This bombshell means that any currency that can be exchanged for gold enjoys the benefits of having tier-one status - for example, bonds denominated in Chinese Huan that can be immediately exchanged for physical gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This means that the hugely ambitious Belt-Road Initiative that will link 75% of humanity, launched in 2020, can be paid for with gold.

In 2021, the world was both horrified and enthralled by the sight of the chaotic US withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan when it discovered that there was almost no Afghanistan Army - it was mostly just a paper army of phantom payrolls - a giant exercise in corruption! Blinded by these events, almost nobody noticed that one day after the withdrawal, Saudi Arabia tore up the petrodollar deal and signed up with Russia in a joint energy venture. The very next day, Russia and China signed a similar deal with Nigeria. Iran soon followed - and all in bonds denominated in Huan and exchangeable for gold.

Just to underline this de-dollarisation of the world's money markets, China has so far sold $100bn in US Treasury bonds this year and a multitude of countries including Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, Brazil and India agree to trade in gold or use gold-based currencies. Simultaneously, major banks around the world have moved from manipulating the gold price down to investing in gold. Hedge funds and pension funds are rather foolishly shorting gold - I would not bet against the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan!

But this week, two things happened -

Firstly, Putin issued a statement, part of which read "The economy of imaginary wealth is being replaced by the economy of real, hard assets."

With this, he makes clear that not only are commodities undervalued but that the wild fugazi of debt that the West has created is totally unsustainable. For example, Germany manufactures €2tn in goods but those manufacturers have been using just €27bn in energy. They could easily afford to swallow much, much higher energy costs. But the prices for assets such as shares and property are artificially inflated by absurdly and artificially low interest rates.

Secondly (and possibly most dangerously) governments and the ECB have hinted that they may indulge in yet more QE. The retail banks within the Eurozone have already borrowed €2tn and this has now been rolled over to 2024 and may be rolled over after that. And Britain's newly minted Prime minister has already stated quite clearly that she is going to visit Pinocchio's Magic Money Tree. These are all acts that are highly inflationary!

It was his belief in The Magic Money Tree that got Pinocchio thrown into prison for stupidity!

And now the wake-up call! Trade in precious metals by US registered banks has been steadily climbing over the years. 20 years ago it was only about $4bn a year. Last year it had climbed to $78bn. Q1 of this year saw $492bn being traded. That was just for the first quarter - the first quarter of this year saw over six times as much precious metal trading as for all of last year!

What's going on? Is this The Great Reset?
 
I would agree commodities are under priced, and will rise sharply due to the recession. I think forecasting the demise of the US currency is much harder, despite everything the US economy tends to recover and keep rolling better than most, and personally I think it is much stronger and resilient than most believe.

Russia is having major problems in Ukraine, China has 68 million properties empty or not fully built, the Eurozone is suffering due to energy supplies, Turkey has 80% inflation. So the rest of the world has plenty of its own problems to deal with as well.

So my tuppence worth, energy supplies will become more yet important and costly along with commodities, and the next major problem to be faced by the world will be drinking water shortages, very shortly.
 
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What needs to be realised is every other country in the world is effectively each other's enemy

If a customer in X,Y,Z wants to buy something

Countries A,B,C,D,E,F,G want to sell it to them

If the sales are being shared pretty evenly, we have few problems

If countries I,J,K,L start joining the market thinks get tenser

If one or two of these countries get overly more aggressive, we get wars

Some countries may not be selling but instead providing services, returns, security and safe harbour for other countries.

If those countries lose their safe harbour status, we get wars

If the UK wants to maintain its status, expect double figure interest rates, if the people won't stand for that, we get war
 
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Makes you wonder why all these governments are continuing to print and spend billions like there is no tomorrow when it is more than obvious that it is unsustainable and causing issues.

Could they possibly already know that the Great reset is coming and that fiat currencies are going to get wiped out regardless, so they are having a free for all and spending as much as they can before.
 
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The Doller overall has gained strength this year against many Asian currencies hence we have seen a slide in the spot gold price since around the beginning of April. From golds lofty $2,000 range in March, we have seen it pull back to around the £1,715 range (where it has some support) hence as you say many traders have been shorting.

Currently sitting at its 50-day moving average we have seen a slight blip to the upside as the Doller lost a bit of ground over the last week, however traders will be looking at the signs it will drop further towards the 100-day moving average with spot gold prices around $1,500

It’s a seesaw effect strong Doller weaker gold, weak Doller gold rallies. It’s no big secret traders in turbulent time move to safe havens precious metals being top of the list (not ****** as some members may hope)

As @The Byre suggests going to be one hell of a tree shake but traders will be hedging and protecting their positions
 
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Good post

I have been buying as much Gold , sliver and platinum as i possibly can for the last 2 years

a lot of people were laughing at me telling me precious metals are too old fashioned for modern investors to be interested in

Infact it would seem many have actually been brainwashed by various cult like internet communities that precious metals are actually worthless

It seems the modern investor likes to fantasise about waking up one morning and their "bitcoins" being worth 100,000 more than they paid for them the day before , with absolutely no consideration on the economic circumstances required to for that to realistically happen

Apparently it can just happen "because"

Many refused to accept the reason ****** had astronomical gains between 2020 -2021 was simply because of a black swan event such as the illusive covid-19

Given lots of free money idiots will find ways to part themselves of it .....and they did

over night a large portion of the world became ****** obsessed

we had pictures of rocks being sold for thousands of pounds , virtual land being flogged and bitcoin pumped up to 60K a piece
Makes you wonder why all these governments are continuing to print and spend billions like there is no tomorrow when it is more than obvious that it is unsustainable and causing issues.

Could they possibly already know that the Great reset is coming and that fiat currencies are going to get wiped out regardless, so they are having a free for all and spending as much as they can before.

I believe they are orchestrating a situation whereby one day it will be announced we either move to central bank digital currencies or your money becomes worthless , the current generation of ******'s are perhaps being used to preconceive the masses

It's a bit of a rabbit hole to go down but its the only thing that makes any sense

You can't tell me the banks and governments don't know what they are doing
 
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It all comes down to how much further fiat currencies can be devalued, the big currencies can still have a long way to go, some countries are basket cases already.

When the time comes, all the currencies will be re valued, by what method is yet to be known, probably the same as before.
 
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When the time comes, all the currencies will be re valued, by what method is yet to be known, probably the same as before.
Judging by the term 'Great Reset' I hope it doesn't mean literally resetting everything such as seizing everyone's assets and belongings and wiping out all debt. Everyone starts back from square one with no head starts. Just like starting a new game of Monopoly instead of joining in the game when a few people already own all the hotels, properties and all the Get Out of Jail Free cards.:p

Those who are truly productive and hard working will get ahead and those who are just rich by means such as inheritance and don't provide any value to society will fall out.
 
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Judging by the term 'Great Reset' I hope it doesn't mean literally resetting everything such as seizing everyone's assets and belongings and wiping out all debt.

I think that is meant by the term for the masses, but I doubt that the Duke of Westminster etc is going to get his assets seized, or even Tony Blair come to that. The really wealthy and elite will hold onto theirs, plus get a lot more from us, and it will be sold as a wonderful idea, like green energy, something for nothing.

As usual, most the public would fall for it.
 
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The market is the “market” driven a lot by sentiment, driven a lot by the MMs the reset I believe is not just the “market correction” in overpriced shares but on what basis a country can base the strength of its individual currency and how these are manipulated to suit their own needs. Printing endless supplies of the stuff will come back to bit you where it hurts. The Byre has plenty to say on this topic in other threads so worth a read.

The traders, institutions i.e. banks your pension funds will hedge their positions moving huge sums of money into safer havens albeit precious metals, bonds etc and of course we have the ability to short stocks down. Worth remembering the exchanges can suddenly limit that ability to short, sell or buy catching many a retail trader out.

Why anyone would think precious metals or other mined minerals have no place in one’s portfolio need to do a bit more research. First golden rule of a trader - do your own research and never listen to anyone else.

Digital currencies demonstrate some attributes for a currency, but its value lies in its restricted supply and of course the increasing demand of those trading it. The actual block chain software behind these is probably of more interest to central banks. Out of interest think I read somewhere if Bitcoins market cap reached $514,000 this would equate to 15% of the total global currency market but does not mean we will all be using it.

The one line for me that has always rung true is money makes money of course the more you have the easier it becomes and the easier it is to shift and influence the market.

We seem to live in the world of the get rich quick would-be traders or I want to be a social media star the only dead cert is only a few really win the rest is one big smoke screen. Maybe the great reset will be someone turns off youtube

DYOR
 
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You can't tell me the banks and governments don't know what they are doing
So I'll try not to tell you - but then there's . . .

"The current inflation we are experiencing is transitory." Jerome Powell, Chair of the Fed, 2021.
"I do not see a bubble. That's just normal investing." James Bullard, St.Louis Federal Reserve in 2021.

And then there are countless examples of governmental and banking incompetence right here and within Europe. Russia under that drunken buffoon Yeltsin, the US occupation of Afghanistan, the UK under Johnson, the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro, Turkey under Erdoğan.

The word we are looking for is kakistocracy - an old word meaning government by the worst. Government by the biggest idiot in the building. Or is someone going to suggest that Liz Truss is the best and most competent person within the Conservative party?

The problem with the way we choose political leaders and chairs of central banks is that the pushiest person who makes the right noises gets the job - not the best. And sadly, "the right noises" means pandering to some political agenda that comes over well in the superficial braying media that we have today.

Government by vapid sound-bites!

Post-war Britain had ONE competent leader, France has one competent leader, Germany had two, the US has had one - and none of those were in any way recent. MacMillan, Pompidou, Brandt, Schmidt and Eisenhower. These were the leaders that created prosperity, avoided war and civil strife wherever possible and sought alliances with and aided other nations. They also had the ability to reach out to those beyond their political parties.

(Interestingly - every one of those five leaders could deliver a speech without notes and without stumbling or saying well, er, you know and um. No politician today seems remotely capable of standing on their hind legs and speaking without reading what they are supposed to say!)

Their like has long since shuffled off the stage, to be replaced by a prancing gaggle of intellectually challenged jesters.

Some of those jesters managed to show glimpses of statesmanship, but people like Kennedy, de Gaulle and Thatcher were heavily tainted by political dogma that led to truly bone-headed mistakes.
 
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My wife has just reminded me that Mandella could also speak clearly and without reading - and was a great leader! So that's six so far that pass muster!
 
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Those who are truly productive and hard working will get ahead and those who are just rich by means such as inheritance and don't provide any value to society will fall out.
Can't see anything inherently wrong with that!
 
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I am sure I read a book once called the Peter Principle (when I get a chance ill have to do a quick google) It said everyone is promoted to their level of incompetence and there they remain I wonder if this is the governments problem

Ok a quick search:
 
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Those who are truly productive and hard working will get ahead and those who are just rich by means such as inheritance and don't provide any value to society will fall out.
Well that’s me stuffed then. I’m a lazy as it gets so the chances of success are slim.

In any case, there is never ever going to be a reset. The 1% won’t let it happen.
 
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The 1% are forcing it to happen.
Are they really? Can’t see Bezos and Musk saying there should be a reset. Can’t see any big corporations asking for a realignment of currencies and for all debt to be wiped.
 
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Well the general state of play at the moment looks a bit like this, we've had a few good days this week and seen a bit more of a positive move up but oh how easy this can all change: Asian markets slipped further back overnight, matching the gloomy mood in the US, investors are hunkering down ahead of another big rate hike in the US next week.

The mood overall has not been helped with global bodies issuing gloomier outlooks. The IMF said that it was too early to assume a global recession would occur in 2023 (nice to know) but it did downgrade its growth forecasts. Meanwhile, the World Bank warned of a global recession next year, prompted by the wave of tightening by central banks, seems like no one's quite knows when the reset switch will be switched.

US and European futures remain under a lot of pressure and we had a warning from FedEx last night about further weakness in the economy providing another reason for caution. So read into that what you will

Markets (UK) down this morning and like everything else in the UK will be closed on Monday.
 
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The mood overall has not been helped with global bodies issuing gloomier outlooks. The IMF said that it was too early to assume a global recession would occur in 2023 (nice to know) but it did downgrade its growth forecasts. Meanwhile, the World Bank warned of a global recession next year, prompted by the wave of tightening by central banks, seems like no one's quite knows when the reset switch will be switched.
I am very optimistic for the medium-term future because -

1. The markets need a correction. An average PE ratio of 30:1 is absurdly high and needs to come down. The coming shake-out will bring those silly valuations right down to where they belong and provide genuine returns for investors.

2. A correction will 'prune' the markets of those zombies that are staggering from one debt repayment to the next. That is capacity that is being wasted on activities better not done! Basket cases like Avid, Peleton, Rivian, DoorDash and all the other bundles of debt masquerading as companies need to fail in the same way we need to cut back fouling branches on an otherwise healthy tree.

3. Russia and China will find new and prosperous futures once they manage to rid themselves of their current misguided leadership cabals. The writing is already on the wall in Russia and Putin is sitting on a very 'shoogly' throne! China's economy is one giant debt bundle waiting to implode.

4. Warren Buffett once said, "Never bet against America!" US exchanges account for over two-thirds of the World's commercial capital. The NYSE is about half the World's commercial capital all on its own! When you turn on your computer, American chips built with Dutch machines in Taiwan come to life. When you fill up your car, American submersible motors power Danish pumps - and the same applies to sewage and water. Everywhere you look, it is Western industrial processes and technology that bring us wealth.

5. Neither Russia nor China will ever be able to counterbalance Western economic power. Russia is gradually breaking apart into its separate regions - Ukraine was already the third or fourth region to break adrift and we have seen just how powerless the Kremlin is in enforcing central control. John McCain called Russia "A gas station masquerading as a country!" It is in reality just a collection of third-world states supported by huge gas and oil reserves. To put its weakness into perspective - Russia collects $350bn in taxes. The US collects $4.8 trillion - 14-times as much!

6. The West has the rule of law. Until a country has the rule of law, investing in that country remains risky. Private enterprise requires the rule of law and the respect of property rights and civil liberties in particular. Russia, China, most of Africa and much of South America just do not have the rule of law. Corruption and crime prevent investment. For that reason, until these places have the genuine rule of law, they must remain merely suppliers of cheap labour, cheap raw materials and cheap goods.

7. So we had a massive (and largely self-imposed) supply shock. That will, in the medium term (i.e. a couple of years) an actual rise in productivity in the West. Our high wages and lack of skilled labour means that we shall have to introduce far greater levels of automation and that in turn will lead to greater productivity (that has been languishing for far too long, as a result of cheap goods from the Far East).

So get ready for the economic storms coming - but be ready to make the most of the good times that will follow (just my opinion of course!)
 
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