General Election (blues)

[NickGrogan]

This was just for bank nurses, apparently they get very high wages as self employed through agencies who vary prices depending on available staff to meet a requirement, if they want to have bank nurses it should be at a fixed contract cost for all their nurses i.e £xxx per hour so they don't milk the system

Why not just write "I think nurses should be paid less"?

It's not the agencies that vary the prices, it's the nurses.

You try getting a nurse to work on a night shift/bad location/bank holiday/short notice (frequently all of the above) for the same money that they'll work on a standard weekday shift at a local hospital with a good reputation.

 

[NickGrogan]

This election is all but guaranteed to be a Labour win.

Support for the SNP has weakened considerably in Scotland, and for the first time in a long time Labour lead the SNP in the polls, and I believe they will win more seats than the SNP.

Reform will also take a lot of votes from the Conservatives but whilst it is unlikely so see them getting any seats, it will be enough to gift Labour victory in a not insignificant amount of constituencies.

The Conservatives will probably clear 100 seats, and I think Labour are on course for a majority of at least 250.

The Conservative’s are in a mess all of their own making, and they’ll be in opposition for at least the next decade.

Labour aren't winning the election - no one has any idea what the policies are, except those that are the same as the Tories. I don't see anyone passionate about Labour winning and what they will do when they win. Apart from not being tories.

Starmer seems to be trying not to say anything so he doesn't offend anyone and lose votes. It's not a bad policy, but you can't call it winning.

The Conservatives are working very hard to lose the election and I'm pretty sure they'll suceed.

But there is always a chance for Labour to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a hung parliament or tiny majority (single figures).

If the odds are good enough, I'll bet on Trump and Conservatives both winning.

 

[WaveJumper]

Well it will be interesting to see what they try to pull out the bag today in their last bid to win back voters but I am more minded to be thinking they are going to muddy the waters for a future labour win rather than worrying about yours or mine concerns over broken Britain.

A lot of career politicians are probably now looking over the abyss and thinking "sh**" I am going to have to get a proper job

 

[tony84]

Can anyone tell me anything that has improved in 14 years?

2009/2010 is 14 years ago.

That is the question I asked.

 

[NickGrogan]

That is the question I asked.

yes and then you quoted 2010/11 in a response.

 

[tony84]

Both figures include 2010 which is 14 years ago.
Best case scenario it has remained the same up to the latest figures available, worst case scenario it has got worse - but on the basis that the figures since the latest results are inevitably going to worse, I do not think it is unfair to say that it is only going to have got worse.

The fact is, I asked what has got better and so far I have:
Tescos pays the national living wage,
Poverty is not worse,
CO2 emissions are down.

For a government that has been in power for 14 years, its not exactly compelling is it? The fact that they even think they have a chance of winning the next election is almost as sad as the job they have done.

 

[NickGrogan]

So we're ignoring...

Gender pay gap has been reduced
The manufacturing sector ranking improved on a global scale
Education in maths, reading and science have all improved, at least compared with other countries. In 2009 we were 27th, 25th and 16th respectively. We're now 11th, 13th and 13th.
4G roll out
5G roll out
Fast Fibre roll out - internet speeds increasing from 5Mb to around 69Mb on average
1GB internet being available

That's cool.

Assuming Labour win, what will get better in the next 14 years?

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Well it will be interesting to see what they try to pull out the bag today in their last bid to win back voters but I am more minded to be thinking they are going to muddy the waters for a future labour win rather than worrying about yours or mine concerns over broken Britain.

A lot of career politicians are probably now looking over the abyss and thinking "sh**" I am going to have to get a proper job

I would not be surprised to find a very low turnout and great gains by independent MP's leading to new parties forming in a few years meaning coalition government. the three big present parties offer nothing to Mr and Mrs average

 

[tony84]

So we're ignoring...

Gender pay gap has been reduced
The manufacturing sector ranking improved on a global scale
Education in maths, reading and science have all improved, at least compared with other countries. In 2009 we were 27th, 25th and 16th respectively. We're now 11th, 13th and 13th.
4G roll out
5G roll out
Fast Fibre roll out - internet speeds increasing from 5Mb to around 69Mb on average
1GB internet being available

That's cool.

Assuming Labour win, what will get better in the next 14 years?

4G, 5G and faster internet... Pretty sure all of those things would have happened no matter who was running the country. Infact I recall Corbyn wanting to roll faster internet out to the countryside and he was laughed at.

The gender pay gap would have reduced also.

Its quite interesting you mention education as I read earlier in the week that kids are going to high school unable to read and are also joining infants unable to dress themselves. Lets also not forget that schools were closed due in part to Rishi cutting back on repairs/replacement of schools when he was chancellor.

When you say manufacturing and education has improved on a global scale, is that because it has improved or that other countries have dropped? There is a difference?

I have nothing against education in fairness, I reckon it has done fairly well compared to other areas which have government input. But it is not enough to give them any more time running the country.

Far more is worse than is better. At the very least standards should be maintained and your talking about 4G internet and 1GB broadband which half the the country will not even benefit from because they either will not have access to it or it will not make any difference to their lives. Give me 100mb broadband and I would not know the difference, I can watch netflix with my 35mb broadband. 1gb will make no difference, infact if anything I am guessing this role out is why the cost of broadband is rocketing.

Trussle trust had 35 foodbanks in 2010.
Trussle trust had 1,300 foodbanks in 2019.

 

[MikeJ]

The time for new parties was in 2019, when Corbin and Johnson were leading their parties. The centre ground was ripe for a new party, but nobody seemed to want to take the leap.

 

[UKSBD]

The time for new parties was in 2019, when Corbin and Johnson were leading their parties. The centre ground was ripe for a new party, but nobody seemed to want to take the leap.

Maybe Keir Starmer should rename the Labour Party - New, New Labour or Even Newer Labour

 

[DontAsk]

4G, 5G and faster internet... Pretty sure all of those things would have happened no matter who was running the country.

So what would have happened had Labour been running the show?

What good things will happen in the next 14 years, if Labour are elected, that wouldn't happen anyway?

 

[DontAsk]

I am more minded to be thinking they are going to muddy the waters for a future labour win rather than worrying about yours or mine concerns over broken Britain.

This ^^^

It's very difficult for Labour to object to a cut in NI, for example, that helps "the workers" rather than a tax cut that helps those living off investment income.

 

[tony84]

So what would have happened had Labour been running the show?

What good things will happen in the next 14 years, if Labour are elected, that wouldn't happen anyway?

You cant really prove something that never happened can you.

Would Michelle Mone, her husband and however many tory donors been millions for dodgy PPE?
Would they have wasted was it £20bn on HS2 just to dump it a few days after buying a load of houses/land?
Would the NHS be as bad as it is now?
Would the NHS have been privatised? (google totally plc, mastercall and all of the private ambulances)

Im not pushing any particular party, what I am doing is calling out the absolute shisters we have had running the country. They should be locked up for the amount of money they have rinsed from us. Yet they are running for reelection rather than just accepting they are useless.

Look at Nadhim Zahawi, he ended up with a £5m fine for not paying his taxes. HMRC came out and said they do not fine people for mistakes, which I read as being a dodgy scum bag. He also bought land in the freeport areas the week before the freeport areas were announced.

 

[ecommerce84]

Labour aren't winning the election - no one has any idea what the policies are, except those that are the same as the Tories. I don't see anyone passionate about Labour winning and what they will do when they win. Apart from not being tories.

They’re light years ahead in the polls and, I do agree that they aren’t necessarily winning on their own merits but rather being the “least worst option”.

And you’re spot on, a lot of people will vote Labour simply because they are not the Conservatives, and enough of them will do so to see Kier Starmer as PM within the next 10 months.

And today’s budget is nowhere near enough to convince the many people who voted Conservative for the first time to elect Boris in 2019, to do the same for Rishi in 2024.

Irrespective of what they’ve achieved over the past 14 years, the Tories are toast in the next election.

If the odds are good enough, I'll bet on Trump and Conservatives both winning.

I’d definitely stick some money on Trump - if the Democrats insist on fielding Biden against him, I can see Trump snatching it.

Biden isn’t for for office now, heaven knows what he’ll be like in 2 or 3 years.

The worlds most powerful democracy and the best they can offer their voters are a couple of guys who should be in retirement homes.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

The Monster Raving Loony Party will be getting my vote...

manicfesto proposals​

26m tonnes of waste plastic bottles are discarded every year in the UK of which only 45% are recycled. The Loony Party has the answer.. Stop making them..
Before you ask…We have found an alternative. Its called glass.

To make things fairer we will introduce a Court of Human Lefts

We will reduce hospital waiting lists by using a smaller font.

To get more children reading, fish and chips will once again be wrapped in newspaper

 

[japancool]

26m tonnes of waste plastic bottles are discarded every year in the UK of which only 45% are recycled. The Loony Party has the answer.. Stop making them..
Before you ask…We have found an alternative. Its called glass.

It won't reduce the weight of unrecycled bottles though. Glass is heavier than plastic.

 

[NickGrogan]

You cant really prove something that never happened can you.

You can apply that to anything, so not really relevant.

You mention 100mb being enough, but you didn't have that 14 years ago.

Its fine to say the government had nothing to do with anything good, and you might be right.

So what's going to change if Labour win?

The £20B the government spent on HS2 - was mainly paid to UK-based companies, who in turn paid it to UK-based subcontractors and employees, right? So most of the £20B is currently circulating in the UK economy. Can you explain why that's a bad thing?

The NHS hasn't been privatised - when was the last time your GP asked you for payment?

 

[japancool]

Can you explain why that's a bad thing?

Because the ROI on that £20 billion is far lower than it would have been had it been spent efficiently - if, indeed, it makes any return at all. I suspect the rump line will run at a loss for a significant amount of time, if not forever.

You could make the same argument about most government spending. Paying nurses more, paying more benefits all circulates in the UK, so it's not a bad thing.

 

[BubbaWY]

Labour aren't winning the election - no one has any idea what the policies are, except those that are the same as the Tories. I don't see anyone passionate about Labour winning and what they will do when they win. Apart from not being tories.

Starmer seems to be trying not to say anything so he doesn't offend anyone and lose votes. It's not a bad policy, but you can't call it winning.

The Conservatives are working very hard to lose the election and I'm pretty sure they'll suceed.

But there is always a chance for Labour to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with a hung parliament or tiny majority (single figures).

If the odds are good enough, I'll bet on Trump and Conservatives both winning.

Starmer doesnt need to say what his policies are yet. He appears to be quite happy to sit back and watch the continued mess of the Tory party. It is the Tory party who are under pressure to overturn the landslide defeat the polls are forecasting and improve their reputation given the last 14 years of Conservative government.

The Conservatives have also been riddled with right wing controversies, which obviously plays to certain element of the electorate. Similarly to how Corbyn failed due to his left wing ideologies, which appealed to a percentage of votes. But as a nation we are reasonably centrist. Blair understood this, which is why New Labour took the centre ground and succeeded. And its a similar path to what Starmer has taken i.e. hes more centrist than left wing which I think is what will take him through the doors of No.10.

 

[japancool]

I know one thing - neither party will do anything to fix the underlying issue of house price growth outstripping wage growth. In fact, they're both likely to make it worse. That probably applies to all parties across the board, since they've all bought into the ideaology that says houses should be an investment, not a place to live.

 

[TMark]

The only positive thing the Tory government has done in the last 14 years is legalise same sex marriages. For this I give them kudos.

It was the Lib Dems who pushed for same sex marriage as part of the coalition deal. And the collective power of the Lib Dems plus Labour/SNP/Plaid/etc who got the vote over the line. The vast majority of Tory MPs voted against it. Even Cameron had to be dragged into supporting it by his wife (though a small bit of kudos to him for changing his mind and agreeing to back it).

As to the wider question of who will win the GE - I don't think it's in the bag just yet. Certainly not a landslide anyway. A general election campaign can throw up all sorts of unexpected events. A significant debate slip-up. A car crash leader interview. Smears and dossier dirt from the right wing press. A Gillian Duffy moment. I also think Labour haven't fully grasped the resonance of culture war issues among large swathes of the electorate - something that the Tories will be taking full advantage of right up until polling day.

Labour need to keep a tight grip of that ming vase just a bit longer!

Will the outcome effect me? Probably not much. I will say that, personally, I felt that Labour were more generous for small businesses in the 2000s than the Tories have been since 2010. I'm certainly poorer than I was, though that's a combination of unfortunate personal events as much as wider economic ones.

 

[MikeJ]

Biden isn’t for for office now, heaven knows what he’ll be like in 2 or 3 years.

The worlds most powerful democracy and the best they can offer their voters are a couple of guys who should be in retirement homes.

Bill Clinton first stood for president 30 years ago. He's younger than Trump and Biden.

 

[NickGrogan]

Because the ROI on that £20 billion is far lower than it would have been had it been spent efficiently - if, indeed, it makes any return at all. I suspect the rump line will run at a loss for a significant amount of time, if not forever.

You could make the same argument about most government spending. Paying nurses more, paying more benefits all circulates in the UK, so it's not a bad thing.

Correct, as long as the nurses stay and work in the UK, then paying them more makes perfect sense - see my earlier post about student funding.

Whether the train line is any good or not doesn't really matter; £ 20Bn has been spent in the UK economy, which stimulates growth.

 

[NickGrogan]

Starmer doesnt need to say what his policies are yet. He appears to be quite happy to sit back and watch the continued mess of the Tory party. It is the Tory party who are under pressure to overturn the landslide defeat the polls are forecasting and improve their reputation given the last 14 years of Conservative government.

The Conservatives have also been riddled with right wing controversies, which obviously plays to certain element of the electorate. Similarly to how Corbyn failed due to his left wing ideologies, which appealed to a percentage of votes. But as a nation we are reasonably centrist. Blair understood this, which is why New Labour took the centre ground and succeeded. And its a similar path to what Starmer has taken i.e. hes more centrist than left wing which I think is what will take him through the doors of No.10.

Kind of, but as you say at the beginning of the post, Starmer hasn't actually taken any path. He's just hiding and waiting for Sunak to mess it all up. It's effective, but not good.

At least with Blair and Corbyn they stood for something and people voted for/against them for a reason. Same with the SNP.

Starmer is just Not Sunak. You could replace him tomorrow and nothing much would change for Labour.

 

[Mark James]

Come on let’s address the core of the state of the problem here.

'If you flood the country with more people it's going to get worse if you don't fix it first'

crumbling public services cannot properly function while demand is surging due to mass immigration.

 

[Fagin2021]

Starmer is just Not Sunak. You could replace him tomorrow and nothing much would change for Labour.

Or as George Galloway put it "Two cheeks of the same bum."

 

[Newchodge]

Come on let’s address the core of the state of the problem here.

'If you flood the country with more people it's going to get worse if you don't fix it first'

crumbling public services cannot properly function while demand is surging due to mass immigration.

Except the figures don't back that up. Some public se4rvices are crumbling because they have relied on migrant labour that is no longer there. Many migrants are young healthy men who don't use much in the way of public services. Migration is not responsible for the literally crumbling state of our schools and hospitals. How has migration destroyed our justice system?

 

[tony84]

You can apply that to anything, so not really relevant

You mention 100mb being enough, but you didn't have that 14 years ago.

Its fine to say the government had nothing to do with anything good, and you might be right.

So what's going to change if Labour win?

The £20B the government spent on HS2 - was mainly paid to UK-based companies, who in turn paid it to UK-based subcontractors and employees, right? So most of the £20B is currently circulating in the UK economy. Can you explain why that's a bad thing?

The NHS hasn't been privatised - when was the last time your GP asked you for payment?

I do not have 100mb broadband, I have no need for it. I think mine is about 30mb (but could be wrong). The point I was making is that rolling out 1gb speeds is not needed for 99% of the population but guess who is going to end up paying for that infrastucture...99% of the population!

I am assuming you do not understand the definition of privatisation... Its not a case of me paying for it at point of use that makes it private. Its to do with who owns it. Im not saying the NHS has been privatised btw, I am saying parts of it have been, typical tories doing it bit by bit and before you know it, its the vast majority and they probably all have shares in those companies.

You are in favour of the government spending £20bn and getting nothing for it then? Just because its kept people in jobs... Wow. Just imagine what £20bn could have done, we could have trained 1,000 doctors and kept 1,000 people in work for their whole careers rather than just the duration of a failed vanity project. It would have cost about £350m to train them - We would still have £19.5bn to pay them for the duration of their careers. Add in to that nurses and new medical equipment and we could have fixed the NHS or at the very least vastly improved it AND had something to show for it rather than a train line that goes from near birmingham to near London (it cant even do the full journey!).

 

[IanSuth]

Very likely. But no point in funding the training if people are going to leave. That's just wasting more money.

When you say reduce bank nurse costs, what you're saying is pay nurses less.

Hospitals could use their power to pay nurses less.

What effect would that have on the economy?

Hence my idea that rather than upfront bursaries for public sector workers like nurses, teachers police you write off their tuition loan after 10 years service in the public sector - reduce attrition and lower wage demands with one simple policy

 

[IanSuth]

Here is a report from the Nuffield trust on the current cost benefit to the nhs of recruiting nurses from non EU overseas

Basic conclusion is they cost less even taking into account recruitment fees than training our own and they stay in post longer than homegrown

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-10/1633336126_recruitment-of-nurses-lessons-briefing-web.pdf

Reason for need from that paper


Why is increasing the number of nurses a priority?

There are a huge number of nurses in England; some 342,300 are recorded as working in NHS hospital and community health services and 23,900 working in general practice.1 However, there were 39,000 full-time equivalent nurse vacancies by mid-2021, representing a 10% vacancy rate. The equivalent figure for doctors is 7%. The 2019 NHS Long Term Plan committed to reducing the nursing vacancy rate to 5% by 2028. Later that year, the government pledged to increase the number of NHS nurses by 50,000 by 2025

 

[IanSuth]

I couldnt find a ROI on training nurses but i did find one on general investment in Health interventions done by the BMJ - if you were given those number in your own business I am pretty sure you would be asking where to sign off on the investment immediately

Results We identified 2957 titles, and included 52 studies. The median ROI for public health interventions was 14.3 to 1, and median CBR was 8.3. The median ROI for all 29 local public health interventions was 4.1 to 1, and median CBR was 10.3. Even larger benefits were reported in 28 studies analysing nationwide public health interventions; the median ROI was 27.2, and median CBR was 17.5.
Conclusions This systematic review suggests that local and national public health interventions are highly cost-saving. Cuts to public health budgets in high income countries therefore represent a false economy, and are likely to generate billions of pounds of additional costs to health services and the wider economy.

 

[Mark James]

Except the figures don't back that up. Some public se4rvices are crumbling because they have relied on migrant labour that is no longer there. Many migrants are young healthy men who don't use much in the way of public services. Migration is not responsible for the literally crumbling state of our schools and hospitals. How has migration destroyed our justice system?

Ok you quote figures but who are sending these massaged stats out, c’mon Cinds have you been to a hospital or school lately.

Plus - why are we putting young, fighting, male-only immigrants in hotels and building camps for them? Why no women and children? They’re raping and killing our women & children. Explain this please, I mean do you feel safe walking the streets at night in any of our major cities? You got kids? You feel them safe out and about?

 

[Newchodge]

Ok you quote figures but who are sending these massaged stats out, c’mon Cinds have you been to a hospital or school lately.

Plus - why are we putting young, fighting, male-only immigrants in hotels and building camps for them? Why no women and children? They’re raping and killing our women & children. Explain this please, I mean do you feel safe walking the streets at night in any of our major cities? You got kids? You feel them safe out and about?

I feel perfectly safe walking the streets of our cities. Please cite examples of 'illegal' immigrants raping and killing our women and children in greater numbers than British people in this country. Pleasre include British police officers in those figures.

 

[Mark James]

Muslims taking Control of our Streets, Threatening Jews & other innocent victims & Muslim Rape Gangs throughout the UK

You think this is ok and are you denying the rape gangs in Rochdale especially and the recent gang in Newcastle (do your research)

Let’s look after our own first including homeless ex service personnel instead of landing 1500 immigrants a day and housing and feeding them and putting pressure on all our services.

Cindy and the woke left have destroyed our country and until this attitude changes we are doomed, doomed I tell you.

 

[IanSuth]

Ok you quote figures but who are sending these massaged stats out, c’mon Cinds have you been to a hospital or school lately.

Plus - why are we putting young, fighting, male-only immigrants in hotels and building camps for them? Why no women and children? They’re raping and killing our women & children. Explain this please, I mean do you feel safe walking the streets at night in any of our major cities? You got kids? You feel them safe out and about?

Are you real ?

I feel safer wandering around Reading now (as do my 17 & 22 daughters) The town is a lot more diverse now than when i was a student around 1990 and a lot safer - in 1991 i had a mate hospitalised for several weeks after being beaten senseless for the sake of it.

My elder daughter is on the borders of Hillingdon & uxbridge in nw London and other than normal sensible precautions (don't go down a dark alley at 1am) has never said she feels unsafe.

So explain where you get ANY evidence of "They're raping and killing our women & children" at any greater incidence than the normal rate per 1000 population

 

[tony84]

Ok you quote figures but who are sending these massaged stats out, c’mon Cinds have you been to a hospital or school lately.

Plus - why are we putting young, fighting, male-only immigrants in hotels and building camps for them? Why no women and children? They’re raping and killing our women & children. Explain this please, I mean do you feel safe walking the streets at night in any of our major cities? You got kids? You feel them safe out and about?

Jesus.
If I put rapist in to google and click on news, 7 of the first 10 are white (some are in the army and police), 2 are asian. The 10th is just another article on one of the other 9.

There is a hotel near us which houses asylum seekers/immigrants whatever you want to call them. I go past the hotel maybe once a week. It was about 6 months before I even knew they were there.

I have had 6 fights as an adult male. Every single one of them was with someone who was white and I live in Manchester so its not exactly like I do not come across non whites.

My daughter is 6 and goes to school with asian kids. One of her best mates is asian, the girls grand parents came from pakistan (her parents were born in england I think). We go to birthday parties for asian girls and boys... Do I feel like she is safe around asian people?

Turn off GB news.

 

[Mark James]

75% of all rape gangs are *******

A taxi driver rapes a woman on average every 12 days, the perpetrators are almost invariably ********

******* men are 3% of the uk population but 18% of all rapes are carried out ********

Over 75% of all stranger rapes are carried out by people born overseas.

 

[Newchodge]

the recent gang in Newcastle (do your research)

I live in Newcastle. I take it you are referring to the 1 man and 3 children who raped and abused 2 girls? Where are your white comparators?

 

[Newchodge]

75% of all rape gangs are *******

A taxi driver rapes a woman on average every 12 days, the perpetrators are almost invariably ********

******* men are 3% of the uk population but 18% of all rapes are carried out ********

Over 75% of all stranger rapes are carried out by people born overseas.

Sources?