The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic was always going to be minimal, if any, with security checks beefed up at airports and ports instead
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Does May want to win?
- Thread starter Newchodge
- Start date
The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic was always going to be minimal, if any, with security checks beefed up at airports and ports instead
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ffox
Way back at the beginning of May I posted this in another thread -
Take a long look at the GE campaigns and see how they were conducted. Despite continual negative press in mainstream media, the newspapers, TV and radio, the Jezza campaign targeted the young and used 21st century communication to mobilise a force for change.
For good or for bad, this has led to a hung parliament and inter party deals being made. A fairly similar situation to that under a system of proportional representation.
Get used to it folks. Modern communication speaks to the individual, instead of disenfranchising smaller groups it engages them. Perhaps the day of the massive parliamentary majority is over.
Take a long look at the GE campaigns and see how they were conducted. Despite continual negative press in mainstream media, the newspapers, TV and radio, the Jezza campaign targeted the young and used 21st century communication to mobilise a force for change.
For good or for bad, this has led to a hung parliament and inter party deals being made. A fairly similar situation to that under a system of proportional representation.
Get used to it folks. Modern communication speaks to the individual, instead of disenfranchising smaller groups it engages them. Perhaps the day of the massive parliamentary majority is over.
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No doubt loads of analysis will be done over the coming weeks and months and we will find out if there was much tactical voting that went wrong, how much was down to Theresa May's lack of TV persona, how much was down to poorly presented manifesto pledges and even how much was down to not utilising the popular Boris Johnson more.
One can understand the idealistic young voting for Jeremy Corbyn's jam today promises but the older generation who have lived through left wing Labour governments spend, spend spend policies know that it always leads to disaster and should never vote to bring back those days especially in times when the next terrorist outrage is probably just around the corner and the Labour party's number 2 has gone on record as wanting to abolish both MI5 and armed police
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ffox
The facts don't need in depth analysis -
2017 Votes - Con - 13.6 million: Lab - 12.8 million
2015 Votes - Con - 11.3 million: Lab - 9.3 million
Despite the poor persona, despite the poor manifesto Theresa didn't lose the 2017 election. She gained for the Con's nearly 1 million more votes.
It's just that Jezza made more gains for Lab.
There was a near 70% turnout, the highest for 25 years.
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@ffox, but the problem remains that they don't have a majority .
My own analysis is that it had nothing to do with advisers (though they took one for the team and lost their jobs).
Calling the election when May did was, strategically, the right thing to do. Labour was in disarray and there was an opportunity to increase their majority.
But the Tories miscalculated badly.
Their mistakes:
- They arrogantly assumed their lead was so far they could present a "tough" memorandum with no giveaways and no costings ... and get away with it.
- They relied on May's chrisma (yeah right) instead of wheeling out the BJs and others who do connect with the electorate.
- They fluffed their economic competence reputation with the social care disaster (which managed to take centre stage despite repeated gaffes from Diana Abbot and JC himself).
The election was theirs to lose ... and they lost it (well, sort of).
Part of the credit goes to Jeremy Corbyn, of course, let's not take that away from him. He promised jam today (and let's not worry about tomorrow) and that worked spectacularly for him.
My concern now is that this is all going to play out as a soft Brexit
which is the worst of all possible worlds, IMO.
My own analysis is that it had nothing to do with advisers (though they took one for the team and lost their jobs).
Calling the election when May did was, strategically, the right thing to do. Labour was in disarray and there was an opportunity to increase their majority.
But the Tories miscalculated badly.
Their mistakes:
- They arrogantly assumed their lead was so far they could present a "tough" memorandum with no giveaways and no costings ... and get away with it.
- They relied on May's chrisma (yeah right) instead of wheeling out the BJs and others who do connect with the electorate.
- They fluffed their economic competence reputation with the social care disaster (which managed to take centre stage despite repeated gaffes from Diana Abbot and JC himself).
The election was theirs to lose ... and they lost it (well, sort of).
Part of the credit goes to Jeremy Corbyn, of course, let's not take that away from him. He promised jam today (and let's not worry about tomorrow) and that worked spectacularly for him.
My concern now is that this is all going to play out as a soft Brexit
which is the worst of all possible worlds, IMO.
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You only need to communicate with one key influencer and they will do your marketing for you. This was the case in this GE. It wasn't about Labour tweeting to students in Canterbury, it was about Labour communicating with student union leaders and activists. They then communicated the free education messages. It's no difference to any other effective marketing campaign.
So while I agree that the method of communication has changed, it's still all about communicating to the right people rather than sending the message out to everybody.
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The country has ended up with the Gov it deserves, if youngsters are foolish enough to vote for unvisited bribes/promises, and the elderly are foolish enough to forget the previous Labour Gov disasters, then this is the result.
I can understand students falling for the bribe, but the more experienced voters have no excuses. Now we have JC strutting around grinning and acting like he won. He is so deluded it actually scares myself.
I can understand students falling for the bribe, but the more experienced voters have no excuses. Now we have JC strutting around grinning and acting like he won. He is so deluded it actually scares myself.
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ffox
No they don't. Perhaps that's a good thing, perhaps not. What Labour do have now is an opposition that is very left of centre and a leader who, despite a poor traditional media image, has given them hope and pride. I do hope that it will be the end of the pale blue labourites who flourished, and did so much damage, under Blair/Brown. We shall see.
Quite so. But, I believe that the Con campaign relied on old style messages. Sound Bites, stock character portrayals and a general blanket message. The approach cannot even be said to have been focussed on any particular key players (not the business community, not the banking community and certainly not the general public).
Even so, Theresa polled a huge number of votes. This was only upset by a focussed Lab campaign that had only one aim - to be attractive to the young.
Who knows, maybe this result will convince millennials that it's more fun playing Game of Thrones with real politicians than it is on the Xbox. Or is that too much to hope for?
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The Byre
Speaking as a gloating voter, I told you all that there will be no Brexit and that is what will happen. You can vote for the bloody moon or for women-only gravity, but that won't make it so.My concern now is that this is all going to play out as a soft Brexit
Brexit is impossible. The very best that the Alf Garnets of this World can hope for, is a Norway-esque solution of membership in all but name only. Anything approaching a hard Brexit will have many large companies just upping sticks and leaving.
We now have major industries making clear demands for the four basic freedoms to be maintained. The latest was Airbus, that directly employs 10,000 and a further 80-90,000 work for suppliers in the UK and about as many again would lose their jobs as a result of the multiplier effect.
Yesterday, Airbus CEO Tom Enders issued a statement, saying that his company is getting ready to close down UK operations if there are any tariffs, restrictions on the movement of labour and capital, or changes in regulations. In Germany, the new buzzword is 'Breturn' as behind the scenes, the German government and the EU Commission expect reality to dawn on the UK government.
"We still do not know if and when the negotiations will start, but we know when they will end - on the 29th of March 2019!" said head of the Commission Jean-Claude Juncker to the Süddeutsche Zeitung. "But the dust in Great Britain has to settle first, so that we have someone to negotiate with. We have been ready for months - it's now up to the British. The divorce papers are ready, they just have to come and sign them."
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I don't see why. McDonell was on TV this morning restating Labour's policy of leaving the single market. And if the youth vote was anti Brexit they would have voted LibDem?
In my dreams common sense will prevail and some sort of cross party committe will be formed to oversee Brexit. Labour have talented people like Frank Field and Kat Hoey who could make a valuable contribution.
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Deleted member 59730
Hear Hear!
We also haven't yet experienced the reality of the actual negotiations kicking in. To cite just one emotional issue; Fishing. What does Spain want, Gibraltar or fish? They don't really care twopence for Gibraltar, their NATO Navy can use the port at anytime and often do. What they do care about is fish and they will be using Gib purely as a bargaining tool to get what they want. The Mail and Telegraph care more about Gibraltar than fishing so we know which way the decision will go.
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The Byre
A hard Brexit would run the UK economy straight into a brick wall!
Imagine the glorious chaos, as the thousands of trucks a day deliver goods that suddenly have to be processed in customs sheds we don't have, stored in bonded warehouses that are not there and all inspected by customs officials that do not exist!
And the same chaos will be happening in Calais, Dublin, Holyhead and Ostend and possibly even in Newry, as the Irish border closes.
Those customs sheds, turn-round warehouses and sorting sheds and all the bonded warehouses will have to be all ready for the c.a. 250m tons of freight we import from the EU every year!
So where exactly are we going to build them? In Kent? Essex? Where?
And more to the point, when do we start?
Imagine the glorious chaos, as the thousands of trucks a day deliver goods that suddenly have to be processed in customs sheds we don't have, stored in bonded warehouses that are not there and all inspected by customs officials that do not exist!
And the same chaos will be happening in Calais, Dublin, Holyhead and Ostend and possibly even in Newry, as the Irish border closes.
Those customs sheds, turn-round warehouses and sorting sheds and all the bonded warehouses will have to be all ready for the c.a. 250m tons of freight we import from the EU every year!
So where exactly are we going to build them? In Kent? Essex? Where?
And more to the point, when do we start?
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Deleted member 59730
And I read that Ostend is already drawing up their own list for inclusion in Brexit talks.
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He talks such a lot of horsesh*t! There is no guarantee they will end on 29/03. The date can be extended. Not at our request, but at theirs. And they have no reason to stick religiously to that date. If there's some advantage to be gained in the negotiation by extending the date, they'll extend it. There are other circumstances, too, in which an extension could happen. So, no, not "they will end" but "they could end" on 29/03/19.
But that's a minor point compared with the rest of the crap in that quote. Divorce papers? Waiting for us to sign? Please tell the buffoon that there will be a negotiation before we sign anything and also that it's entirely possible that we do a WTO walk away without signing anything. If he's got a contract all drawn up waiting for a signature he's a bigger fool than I took him to be. It's way too early in the day to be drawing up contracts.
While I would have liked the Referendum to go Remain, it didn't. People are expecting a Brexit and they'll get a Brexit. If the UK government (current or future, Tory or Labour or Coalition) decides to not take the UK out of the EU, there'll be hell to pay.
And, if we're going, the only sensible ways to go are with a fantastic deal or with no deal at all. A "soft" Brexit is the worst of both worlds and TM may be forced to moderate her Brexit stand given the Tory party does have its pro-EU MPs. She doesn't have the majority she expected and needs all the support she can get including from these pro-EU MPs and she'll have to moderate her stand to get their support.
They really are such a deluded bunch!
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My concern now is that this is all going to play out as a soft Brexit
Why so?
"Soft Brexit" is quite ambiguous, of course. But if we assume it entails:
- Flexible movement of labour
- Minimal trade tariffs
- Continued financial passporting rights
- More alignment of regulatory frameworks
That will avoid most of the issues which could be detrimental to the economy.
The question is whether we will truly go it alone. But considering that pretty much every major economy is in a trade bloc of some type, we would be going against the grain. Even Switzerland is part of the EFTA.
If we don't cosy up to the EU, is it just a matter of time before we cosy up to something else?
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More important perhaps are the 30% of the electorate that couldn't be bothered to vote. They are the ones who most deserve this mess
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Couldn't be bothered? Or didn't feel represented?
I voted but wasn't totally sure which way to go. I agree with some of the Labour policies but I also agree with some of the Conservative policies. I don't feel there is a party that actually represents most of my views.
When I voted, I noticed a lot of young people (early 20s), all going in groups to vote. So, in my limited view of what actually happened, I'd say the youth vote went right up...good!
I feel that this election touched a wider range of voters than the previous one and the fall out from it has created even more debate, for all ages....good!
Online voting next time? Hope so.
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It's very reassuring that some people at least know exactly what "the truth" is.
There is no point in going for Brexit unless we can get a better deal than we have now.
The EU itself seems determined that we shouldn't leave with a better deal as that would set a bad example.
So any departure that involves terms widely agreed by the EU are going to be inferior to what we have now.
The only way to improve on our current position would seem to be to WTO our way, take a chance outside of the EU and, more importantly, to make clear right from the start of the negotiations that we are prepared to do that.
Or "No deal is better than a bad deal". But TM may have to compromise on that stand now, and that's to our detriment, AFAIAC.
That's why I've always taken the line that we shouldn't be negotiating - we should lay out what we think are reasonable terms and tell the EU to take it or leave it.
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I don't think there was ever a "performance based" point to all this.
The people wanted the UK out of the EU, regardless of the impact on the economy, jobs, wages, living standards or anything else.
In surveys on the run up to the referendum, many leave voters even acknowledged that there would be some economic damage, but wanted Brexit anyway.
The rest claimed that it wouldn't make much difference either way, so they voted on the assumption that the UK wouldn't be better or worse off.
But this would imply that the "take it or leave it" stance is a negotiating tool in itself, would it not? We essentially want to gain more leverage by making it clear that we will damage ourselves (and the EU in the process) by heading off on our own unless we get what we want.
This would therefore imply that going it alone is indeed the most damaging outcome for us.
To me, the question is whether we will ever realistically go it alone - regardless of what happens. If we completely cut ties with the EU, will we avoid ever joining another trade bloc as every other major economy is doing? It seems doubtful to me.
If hard Brexit eventually leads us to another trade bloc somewhere down the line, where we have the same issues, then we may as well take what we can from the EU. It is, after all, the 2nd largest economy in the world, and right on our doorstep, where we're already deeply integrated.
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T
The Byre
and they say "OK, there's the door. Good luck and off you go!"
And then?
Right now, UK politicians are squabbling amongst themselves like pigs at feeding time. The rest of Europe is not really interested, as there are more important things to worry about, such as about ten other national elections in Europe, not least of which is France and Germany, as well as the Czech Republic, Denmark, Norway, Austria and Portugal.
They are worrying about housing hundreds of thousands of refugees, unemployment, the madness that is Russia and America and further madness in the Middle East.
And up pops Britain, points a gun at its own head and squeaks petulantly "Gimmee special status, or I'll blow my brains out - and then you'll be sorry!"
I have never come across a country that is so completely deluded about its own importance as Britain. Nobody knows who the prime minister is, or if Scotland is a part of Wales, or what the difference is between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland. Germans see the Royal Family on TV and wonder why, with all that wealth, they don't have a dental plan.
A strange and haggard woman, pulling funny faces and representing England, pops up on the news and they assume that Tony Blair has had a sex change and it has all gone horribly wrong!
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Deleted member 59730
I am trying to remember a quotation when Lee Iacocca was fired by Henry Ford. It went something like, "you'll never hit 5 million cars a year again because you never knew how it was done in the first place."
We have a government and opposition who are struggling to make sense of the modern world but have no clue how to go about it. May goes on about the 'opportunities' we will have outside the EU without ever having made a list of the opportunities we will lose. Somehow selling arms to Saudi Arabia is her big idea for the future of the country.
The mind boggles.
We have a government and opposition who are struggling to make sense of the modern world but have no clue how to go about it. May goes on about the 'opportunities' we will have outside the EU without ever having made a list of the opportunities we will lose. Somehow selling arms to Saudi Arabia is her big idea for the future of the country.
The mind boggles.
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Inclined to agree with you on that.
It's a year since the referendum and there seems to be a dearth of ideas about how our new relationship with other European countries and the EU might work. I'd love to hear some positive and inspiring ideas.
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Not really. Some genuinely believed we are far better off outside the EU. They still do. Many Remainers, I'll wager, voted Remain because of the scare tactics and predictions of disaster. Similarly, many Leave voters bought into the better life outside of the EU package (savings on budget contributions, reduced immigration, whatever). It's not the case that people who wanted out were acting completely irrationally while everyone else was in full command of their faculties.
No, that's not the implication at all! The implication is that if you don't give us a deal that we like we'll take our chances out in the big, bad world. Don't forget that such an outcome is a scary prospect not just for us but for the EU as well. The UK taking its chances in the big bad world is a UK that's not within the confines and rules of the club. So they could drop their tax rates, for example, and attract a flood of businesses out of the EU and into the UK! A UK that's striking out on its own could, possibly, see huge success at the expense of the EU. This is not a given, of course, but it's a possibility ... and the EU is keenly aware of this.
So not "we will damage ourselves ... by heading off". You need to stop putting 2 and 2 together and getting 1.5.
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Nochexman
Ian, do you really think this is a 'mess'? It does seem like a huge success for parliamentary democracy. Any party that wants to get its ideas turned into action will have to compromise, which means listening to other peoples points of views - something that politicians of all parties seem to have difficulty with!
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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Sure, many thought we would be better off because of less immigration or more sovereignty, but very few people thought the UK would be economically better off if we left the EU.
This was clear as day throughout the referendum campaign. Even the most ardent leave voters spoke only of how there wouldn't be damage - not that we would become more prosperous.
I suspect the vast, vast majority of leave voters did so with the belief that there would be little change in the UK's economic strength, but if there was a decline, it would be a price worth paying.
But if a hard Brexit was such a prosperous solution, why wouldn't we skip all the hassle and go directly to that? Why are we waiting to see what sort of deal the EU will offer before we decide whether to accept it?
Because hard Brexit is damaging for the UK and the EU, but the UK wants to look unpredictable and prepared to damage itself to pressure the EU into giving the UK the deal it desperately wants.
I suspect the EU will call the UK's bluff, just because the EU knows that the UK is restricted in what it can do. Businesses won't like it, voters won't like it, and other countries won't like it either.
We can't just isolate ourselves. Nor can we isolate the damage we cause. If we take a maverick, self-absorbed, anti-bloc approach, it's going to alienate not only the EU, but also the USA, China, India, Japan and every other major economy as well. A tax haven status won't just attract a flood of business out of the EU alone.
If we manage to infuriate every major economy with dirty tactics, who will be left?
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T
The Byre
Another cringe-worthy economic fallacy, along with so many others (trickle-down effect, lump of labour, the saving fallacy and on and on . . . ) and here we have the ever-popular zero-sum fallacy.
This piece of muddled thinking is enjoyed by The Left and The Right in equal measure.
Wealth is not a zero-sum gain. If I am wealthy, my neighbour does not have to be poor as a consequence. If I attract trade, that does not mean that trade has to be taken away from others. Taxing the rich does not automatically benefit the poor. If VW builds a better car, that does not mean that Toyota has to build a less good car.
If wealth were a zero sum calculation, why then has international trade made the West so wealthy?
The answer is of course TRADE. Reducing taxes for large international companies does not increase trade. The Bahamas may have almost no taxes, but they trade with practically nobody. If we reduce corporation tax to zero, it does nothing for trade. It might mean that Microsoft moves its European headquarters to a garage outside Scunthorpe, but that does nothing for their turnover in Germany.
Why do you think there are biotech companies in Cambridge and Scotland? Why are there thousands employed in hi-res display technology in Berlin? Why are there so many dot-com and software start-ups in San Francisco? Why are nearly all the World's auto-racing industry based in the Midlands? Why is the international movie industry based in LA, NY and London? Why is Bollywood in Mumbai and Nollywood in Lagos?
Why (difficult one, this one!) doesn't 'Inverness Medical' up-sticks and move to Luxembourg or the Bahamas? Why has German audio-tech giant The Music Group moved all its R&D to Kidderminster? Why his the entire audio software division of Yamaha in Berlin? Why did they open a new music notation division in London?
Because the taxes are so low????
No, of course not!
Companies are where they are, because that is where the people are. That is where the know-how and the relevant infrastructure is located.
Inverness Medical is in Inverness because there was a small group of people with deep knowledge in the speciality of testing for diabetes - and they lived in (wait for it!) Inverness. Movies are made where they are, because of the people - not the taxes! If I want mathematicians with a deep knowledge of data compression and the use of extreme hi-res display technology, Scunthorpe would be a rotten choice - but it would be a perfect choice for finding engineers who understand the making high-grade steels.
Joke? Seriously?
Daimler-Benz is going to relocate from Stuttgart to Sheffield? Renault will move production of Dacia cars from Roumania to Rotherham? Deutsche Bank will up-sticks in Frankfurt and settle in Felixstowe?
The EU is 30% of the World's economy. The UK is 3% of the World's economy. Now let's see if you can work this one out! Which one is bigger?
Which one of those two trading areas is more important to a company?
(You may like to take your time about this question and additional marks will be awarded for showing your workings in the margin.)
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- Original Poster
- #475
While that is the only way to improve our current position it does not follow that it WILL improve our current position.
If we end up with a Norway style solution, and I cannot see the EU agreeing to anything better than that, we will have the free market, customs union, but we will have to contribute financially and we will have to allow free movement.
If that is what we get, what is the point in leaving? We end up with the same costs to us but no say in anything.
While I generally don't want a second referendum, I do think that parliament will have to vote on it, and if it is rejected, then, perhaps an informed referendum on staying. None of which has any point if we can't cancel Article 50. No one yet has established whether we can.
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These calculations are above my pay grade. Let me consult with the accountants who balanced the EU's books over the last few years and I'll get back.
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"The GRASPING EU has drawn the short STRAW FOR which they are going to pay dearly."
Am I on the right track?
Listen, the only reason I'm not dissecting your post (and Scott's post) line and line and providing a rebuttal is because it's so busy here and I really, really need to get on with work. So, sorry and all that old chap, but we'll have to continue this some other time.
Am I on the right track?
Listen, the only reason I'm not dissecting your post (and Scott's post) line and line and providing a rebuttal is because it's so busy here and I really, really need to get on with work. So, sorry and all that old chap, but we'll have to continue this some other time.
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It's not properly defined at the moment, but this article:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/c...need-to-make-this-a-sane-brexit-a3562946.html
contains some sensible proposals of what it might look like.
Significant that the Macron administration (who will be very influential) are saying that we could retain single market membership without free movement.
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Wow, that's a big deal.
When I suggested here some months ago that we could have our cake and eat it too - specifically, a restriction on free movement but with full market access - I was laughed at!
This Schrodinger's cake (sort of
) is far from a done deal, but it's looking more possible.
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