Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
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- Original Poster
- #242
They will only try to punish us if we start doing something like this.
The EU will make a logical case for a settlement, and then try to achieve an amicable deal on the basis that the UK can't have better terms outside of the EU than it did while it was a member.
What constitutes "punishment" is subjective - particularly when it doesn't align with our exaggerated expectations. That's our problem though, not the EU's.
I'm not claiming that the EU is the angel in all this. But it's completely reasonable to argue that we cannot have a better deal outside of the EU than many EU members enjoy by being inside of it and dealing with all of the responsibilities that membership carries. That's vital to the integrity of the EU itself.
The scary part, however, is that it really seems we believe we can. If the UK doesn't obtain trade access similar to the single market, while restricting immigration and providing no financial contributions to the EU, it appears as though we'll consider this "punishment".
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Let's not get into a chicken and egg debate!
Just remember that we have the option of No Deal (which we would not have had/ will not have under a Labour govt). Under a No Deal we walk away and can legally refuse to make further payments. Such refusal will not even impact on our credit score and the price at which the UK borrows money!
So it's in the EU's interest to ensure we don't walk away with a No Deal. Having a few good cards in your hand is not a bad thing.
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The deal on people already settled is separate to the talks on trade.
But even here we have a negotiating advantage - there are far more EU nationals living here than UK nationals living in the EU. And the net flow of money is significantly from the UK to EU countries (including, to the annoyance of many, social payments like child benefit).
But even here we have a negotiating advantage - there are far more EU nationals living here than UK nationals living in the EU. And the net flow of money is significantly from the UK to EU countries (including, to the annoyance of many, social payments like child benefit).
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- Original Poster
- #246
That's exactly what it is though, and fairly typical of most "frosty" diplomatic situations.
Both sides act out of fear of what the other side will do. It's the defence from each side which ultimately causes the reason they need to defend.
Practically we don't have the option of no deal. Let's be realistic here.
You say the UK has some tricks up its sleeve. Maybe you're right. But how willing would the UK be to leave without a deal, severely damage EU relations, transfer to costly WTO rules with the entire world, take a massive drop in the pound and rattle the markets on a level not seen since 2008?
Maybe the UK could respond by turning itself into a tax haven. But how well would that go down domestically? A gigantic tax cut for corporations while ordinary people continue to be squeezed by austerity? Even if it did work, it would be political suicide.
Furthermore, would May even be able to get that through Parliament with her miniscule majority?
When Davis and May say "no deal is an option", what they really should be saying is "no deal is an option, but we are absolutely desperate to not use that option".
But hey, I suppose that would take the edge off the threat if they did.
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What a bunch of hysterical nonsense!
And why do people still talk about drops in the pound being a bad thing? I've explained it time and time again! Pay attention at the back.
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- Original Poster
- #248
Every point I've said there is 100% correct in that scenario.
As a man of your background, you should know better than most that the markets like stability and are easily spooked. The big headlines of walking away with no deal whatsoever would cause the markets to plummet - even if it's temporary.
Just imagine certain UK stock market sectors when it becomes clear that they're heading for 10%-30% trade tariffs - and quick.
As for the fall in the pound, it's not a universally good thing. It helps exports, but makes imports far costlier. What happens to the millions of people who see their energy bills, weekly shops and other consumables becoming more and more expensive?
What about cash savings? Due to the inflation/interest rate gap, savings are shrinking along with wages.
And if the pound drops significantly, we can wave goodbye to the large amount of seasonal foreign labour many UK sectors rely on (if they're still allowed in post-Brexit, that is). There are already a lot of workers going to Spain or France instead because the fall in the pound has made their UK-earned wages uncompetitive.
Don't get me wrong, the pound could have always done with a minor devaluation - particularly from its peak. But it could definitely go too low and cause real damage that the export sector alone would not be able to offset.
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Deleted member 59730
Dear Scott, you forgot a few other down sides to an uncontrolled drop in the pound.
It makes it more expensive for UK firms to buy into foreign companies. Also UK businesses importing unique parts from the rest of the world and it is not easy to find UK based alternatives.
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When the pound dropped immediately after the Referendum we heard doom and gloom stories about inflation jumping to 25%. It didn't happen. They then changed 25% to "double digits". That didn't happen either. They said, "Wait a bit longer, these things take a few months". So we waited and waited. And waited. It's been over a year now. It's time to give up on the inflation bogey man, it doesn't work.
As I've explained time and time again, there are some losers with a currency devaluation. And there are some winners. Overall, it's a major win for our economy (that's why so many other countries are deperately trying to devalue without any success)! Why are people not seeing that? Is it because they are hell bent on spinning everything as bad news? Possibly.
Today's good news: Claimant count change better than expected, unemployment rate drops (far better than analysts' expectations) and average earnings are exactly where they should be. The economy is doing very nicely considering the huge uncertainties ahead!
But the BBC is still trying to put a negative spin on the news. They accept that unemployment is the lowest since 1975 but, they say, but inflation is at a 4 year high of 2.8%. How desperate are this lot to wring bad news out of good? 2.8%. Wow. That's almost like, OMG, 25%.
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- Original Poster
- #252
But many of them aren't.
Don't forget tariff quotas. Goods imported into other countries will have a lower rate under a specific quantity threshold, and then often a far higher rate above that.
This is a good example well worth reading: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/hilton-beef-quota/
The EU already has quotas for products spread amongst a few routine nation suppliers. If we want to trade under the quota (and therefore pay the lower tariff) we'll have to negotiate for a share of the in-quota imports.
But that means reducing the allocated share already enjoyed by other countries (those we are supposedly going to form FTAs with to solve all our trading woes).
And as that article shows, some tariffs are even seasonal. The tariff quota for oranges only applies from February to April. The out-of-quota tariff then fluctuates between 3.2% and 16% depending on the time of year.
Hopefully it's becoming clearer as to why the single market is so valuable, because WTO trade is a colossal headache.
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- Original Poster
- #253
Very true.
There are a lot of UK exporters that rely on importing materials throughout their supply chain. In fact, I'd say there are very few industries where everything, right back to the raw materials, originates in the UK.
I suspect that most exporters will be enjoying greater revenue, but feeling their costs squeezed at the same time.
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Deleted member 59730
And the bad news from the same figures. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-data-ons-brexit-pound-sterling-a7836606.html
There is a group of millions of UK citizens who are seeing a very real drop. Those living outside the UK whose pensions are paid for in sterling. The British Embassy in Paris now mentions charities set up to help destitute Brits. In normal times this would be a scandal but in the new hard-hearted Britain no one cares.
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- Original Poster
- #255
The devaluation of the pound after the referendum will be a drop in the ocean compared to leaving the EU without any deal whatsoever.
The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because everyone assumes that both sides wouldn't be so stupid as to walk away with nothing at all.
And just for the record, inflation has increased and is already resulting in a practical shrinking of wages for millions of people. For those struggling to get by, the bogeyman is already knocking on their doors.
I'm not sure you appreciate how close to the edge a lot of people are.
Shrinking wages, more expensive goods, and possibly even greater debt burdens if the BoE eventually increases interest rates to curb inflation, could cause serious problems.
The damage will be mitigated if we come out of this with a good deal, but the "no deal" situation would cripple the UK economy.
That's why the UK's threat is rather empty in practical terms. We say we'll do it, but we are desperate to avoid it.
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Deleted member 59730
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Deleted member 59730
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...o-stay-five-days-michel-barnier-a7836911.html
If we cannot negotiate our way to 1st base after a year of thinking about it how the hell are we going to negotiate the difficult things?
If we cannot negotiate our way to 1st base after a year of thinking about it how the hell are we going to negotiate the difficult things?
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LOL. The only paper funnier than the Independent is the Guardian. They are both on a mission to convince the world that Brexit was a bad idea - they blow out of proportion the smallest bad news, refuse to cover any good news and twist everything else to give it a woe-is-us spin. Pathetic saps.
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OK who likes warm apple pie? (American Pie)
A different base than 1st base is needed then.
Being serious for a moment there is a little over a year to negotiate everything. Then all parties have to vote on it and all before the 2 years is up. Cannot see all parties agreeing to an extension any time soon.
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Deleted member 59730
Daily Express owned by multi-millionaire and pornographer Richard Desmond. Violently anti the EU.
Daily Mail owned by tax exile Lord Rothermere and edited by anti EU Paul Dacre. Has a history of telling outright lies and is banned by Wikipedia as a source. Also has a reputation along with the Sun and Telegraph of ripping off copyright.
The Sun and the Times Owned by Australian Rupert Murdoch. Known even in Australia as the Dirty Digger for his willingness to destroy the reputations of celebrities. ( I know one Australian celebrity personally whose career he destroyed)
The Telegraph owned by tax dodging residents of Sark the Barclay brother and son. The editor follows their anti EU ideas.
The i is a British newspaper owned and published by Johnston Press. The i takes a political stance on the centre of the political spectrum, with many front page headline articles being concerned with social issues and inequality - but it also prides itself on its balance, publishing points of view from both left and right.
The Guardian is wholly owned by Scott Trust Limited, which exists to secure the financial and editorial independence of The Guardian in perpetuity.
You pays your money and you takes your choice
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Interesting, I used to be a big fan of The Independent back in the day when it used to be a genuinely good read, considered journalism without offering its own politically-biased conclusion or slant. Sadly that's not been the case for some time; it's internet-only existence is now as far left you can get without blatant lying - they rely instead as Channel 4 News often does on subjective commentary taken as fact.
I had presumed the i was still part of the same group but obviously not. I might just pick up a copy, although I'm not sure the twitter-style reporting for "busy commuters" appeals.
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- Original Poster
- #269
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-accept-it-has-a-brexit-bill-negotiator-says
We really appear to be dragging our feet in all of this. We invoked Article 50 far earlier than we had to, and even now the pace appears very slow indeed given the deadlines involved.
Either the Government is just that incompetent, or this is intentional. It's hard to tell.
I still think there's a slim possibility that we're intentionally sabotaging the negotiations with a view to remaining in the EU. We'll say all the right things, but leave the situation in such a bad state that the only viable option is to remain.
It sounds crazy, and it probably is. But for the Government, life would be a lot easier if this all went away.
We really appear to be dragging our feet in all of this. We invoked Article 50 far earlier than we had to, and even now the pace appears very slow indeed given the deadlines involved.
Either the Government is just that incompetent, or this is intentional. It's hard to tell.
I still think there's a slim possibility that we're intentionally sabotaging the negotiations with a view to remaining in the EU. We'll say all the right things, but leave the situation in such a bad state that the only viable option is to remain.
It sounds crazy, and it probably is. But for the Government, life would be a lot easier if this all went away.
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Hard to tell, but the stance the EU is taking is making a walk away likely now.
The bill can be negotiated, it's only money, but the jurisdiction of the ECJ for EU citizens in the UK is wholly unacceptable, so that could well become an impasse. We simply cannot have two classes of citizens.
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- Original Poster
- #273
That's what I thought. But surely they wouldn't be that incompetent?
Even the man on the street knows that 2 years is a very short period of time to conclude this, yet we didn't start negotiating until 3 months after we invoked Article 50, and even now we don't seem in any hurry at all.
Then again, May did trigger a snap election (after we invoked Article 50) and lost her workable majority, so maybe they are just that incompetent. That alone is arguably the greatest political gaffe of the last decade or more.
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- Original Poster
- #274
You can understand their point of view, though.
The whole tone of Brexit has already eroded trust between the parties. For the EU to sacrifice having any legal influence at all on what the UK does with EU citizens is a big ask.
But hey, there was never a guarantee that there would be a viable solution for some of the issues. It's not necessarily that one side is right and the other is wrong. Some situations, such as this and possibly even the Irish border, can be just unworkable regardless of the goodwill from either side.
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It is not a big ask. We are leaving the EU. For EU citizens to remain here with the same rights and under the same law as British citizens is perfectly reasonable. And vice versa for UK citizens in the EU who should be allowed to remain under EU law. Or should we counter with British courts should have jurisdiction over UK citizens in the EU?
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Like they do now when British citizens are living in a foreign country outside the EU?
What system does the US have for British citizens living there? What system does New Zealand have for British citizens living there? What system does India have for British citizens living there?
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Deleted member 59730
Except that the proposals put forward by May fall far short of the EU proposals for Brits working in Europe. One example is a Brit working for an international company in Germany can go on secondment to Italy for a while and then return to Germany before working in the Dutch office. If it is one of the 60,000 French graduates working in London once they leave they cannot come back and they are being charged for the privilege.
Its only the Tory right who want out of the ECJ which is the last stop in holding our citizens rights, that's you and me.
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