I have been 'reliably' informed that no one believed this and that it did not influence anyone's vote.
If it did, of course, those people would be very upset that they were misled.....
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Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
- Start date
I have been 'reliably' informed that no one believed this and that it did not influence anyone's vote.
If it did, of course, those people would be very upset that they were misled.....
Regretably, of course, the right to vote is not restricted to intelligent people.
I do, of course, have no idea how the IQ curve impacted on voting.
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Would you agree that NHS funding has increased since 31/1/2020?
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/nhs-budget
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In real terms? Applying medical inflation as opposed to ordinary inflation? I don't know. Neither is it relevant. We cannot have seen any financial advantage from leaving the EU by 31/1/2020, because of the transition period. If there has been a real increase in funding it has nothig to with savings from leaving the EU.
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Because?
As far as I know we've left the transition period and the graph clearly shows baseline (non Covid) funding increasing significantly.
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Did you check the link? Minimal increase in 2020, a larger increase in 2021 - as you'd expect, based on your comments.
Both figures ignoring Covid funding.
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NHS spending has increased, nothing to do with Brexit though:
NHS five-year funding deal
In July 2018, the Prime Minister announced a new five-year funding deal that would see NHS funding rise by £33.9 billion in cash terms (ie, not adjusted for inflation) by 2023/24 compared to 2018/19, a rate of increase that is closer to, but still lower than, the long-term average.
This long-term funding deal only applies to services within the scope of NHS England’s mandate, and excludes important areas of the Department of Health and Social Care budget such as capital investment, public health and the education and training of NHS staff.
It was all agreed back in 2018.
As I've said previously though. I believe the NHS has plentiful funding but it's spent in the wrong areas and the services are top heavy with management and IT infrastructure. Billions could be saved through simplification and increasing the number of frontline staff, as well as creating new 'hubs' to take the pressure off general hospitals. There should also be provision for specialist hospitals for events like pandemics/chemical outbreaks/large scale events. Isolating those with worrying or unheard of infections and having space to keep people away from others who are ill.
At the moment, if you have COVID, you go to the main hospital. It does have a separate entrance but the staff and car parks are all in the same location. You're mixing with people while trying to keep away from them.
NHS five-year funding deal
In July 2018, the Prime Minister announced a new five-year funding deal that would see NHS funding rise by £33.9 billion in cash terms (ie, not adjusted for inflation) by 2023/24 compared to 2018/19, a rate of increase that is closer to, but still lower than, the long-term average.
This long-term funding deal only applies to services within the scope of NHS England’s mandate, and excludes important areas of the Department of Health and Social Care budget such as capital investment, public health and the education and training of NHS staff.
It was all agreed back in 2018.
As I've said previously though. I believe the NHS has plentiful funding but it's spent in the wrong areas and the services are top heavy with management and IT infrastructure. Billions could be saved through simplification and increasing the number of frontline staff, as well as creating new 'hubs' to take the pressure off general hospitals. There should also be provision for specialist hospitals for events like pandemics/chemical outbreaks/large scale events. Isolating those with worrying or unheard of infections and having space to keep people away from others who are ill.
At the moment, if you have COVID, you go to the main hospital. It does have a separate entrance but the staff and car parks are all in the same location. You're mixing with people while trying to keep away from them.
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My mum came back from Qatar and developed a worrying chest infection - the local hospital near where she was at the time dealt with her in an isolation room used for worrying or unknown infections and kept her away from other people. That was at a town hospital, not a big city one.
Took over a week to diagnose what she had - perhaps bigger hospitals are just as capable of dealing with unknown infections too?
Initially they just thought she had MERS.
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You mean like all the excellent walk-in centres?
There go all the savings. It was probably cheaper to equip the Nightingale hospitals than keep such facilities marking time for the, er, how long since the last pandemic?
They already do that.
If you think you have covid and get yourself there then you should damn well be taking the usual precautions to avoid spreading it. If you are taken there by ambulance then they know how to deal with this.
Even if you don't have/don't know you have covid you are still segregated at A&E.
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You need to build a smarter circle of friends!
Anyway, £350m / week is roughly £18b for the year. According to the charts, 2021-22 will see an extra £11b for the NHS (outside of Covid spending). Or do you dispute that we're getting an additional £211m / week for the NHS?
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In your opinion, was 2018 before or after the Brexit vote in 2016?
And yet you claim this had nothing to do with Brexit. Are you claiming that the PM and Chancellor weren't aware that we were leaving?
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Ok, so you know several out of over 17 million voters, hardly conclusive anecdotal evidence. What about all the other millions?
I only know one person who believed the message on the side of the coach, we call her the mad cat lady in our area.
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Just to be sure, after reading the above, those in favour of leaving believe that leaving has, in fact, delivered a financial bonus, and that that financial bonus has, in fact, been deployed in significant measure to help the NHS?
Not the exact figure on the bus, of course. But a significant financial bonus.
I have not been able to turn up the exact value, thus far, of any 'Brexit dividend'. Because, instead of the theory, and vague arguments, it would be useful to debate hard facts on this issue. If Brexit is delivering a financial benefit, we need to see a detailed economic study that sets out the workings on that.
Not the exact figure on the bus, of course. But a significant financial bonus.
I have not been able to turn up the exact value, thus far, of any 'Brexit dividend'. Because, instead of the theory, and vague arguments, it would be useful to debate hard facts on this issue. If Brexit is delivering a financial benefit, we need to see a detailed economic study that sets out the workings on that.
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1. You are correct. Right now, there are no statistics because it is too early to tell.
2. You are also correct. There is unlikely to ever be any objective and conclusive study done. People will just claim their side was right. They already are, and we don't have any numbers yet because, as you rightly say, it is too early!
Of course, the fishing industry are already claiming it has damaged them, but they supported it, so their response is a bit confusing!
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It doesn't matter if it was after the vote as such, because in 2018, we still didn't know if there was going to be some sort of deal or how Brexit would actually look. The decision on funding was made before 2018, it was announced in that year but reports and assessments were completed months in advance.
The PM at the time was Theresa May wasn't it? She was chucked out for not being 'Brexity' enough and replaced with someone who wasn't a Brexit supporter but changed his mind when he got the opportunity to be PM.
NHS funding changes had little to do with the Brexit thing, because they've been going up for years and yet we seem to have continually reduced levels of service. Now, it could be that more people require NHS services and that any increase in spending has to be double or triple what is proposed. I'm not sure. All I'm certain of, is that NHS spending needs to be allocated better and to priority areas of public health and frontline. Less managers, more nurses.
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@Paul Norman , no, I'm not arguing that we're seeing the Brexit dividend. That will come over the longer term.
But the only way to deal will the silliness of people banging on about £350m on the side of the bus is to speak to them in their own language.
The facts remain as they've always been. I've consistently maintained that EU can do b*gger all to make a dent in London's position in the financial markets (despite all the faith Remoaners seem to have in how big the EU's economy is, and how insignificant we are in comparison etc etc).
They were making a big noise last week about how Amsterdam has overtaken London in equity trading. They were very excited about it. The Remoaner press were banging on and on about how this was indication that Brexit was a bad idea. What nobody disclosed was this chart:
So, all this fake news from the Remoaner side does need a response; it's good that it's getting that response here from several UKBF members.
But the only way to deal will the silliness of people banging on about £350m on the side of the bus is to speak to them in their own language.
The facts remain as they've always been. I've consistently maintained that EU can do b*gger all to make a dent in London's position in the financial markets (despite all the faith Remoaners seem to have in how big the EU's economy is, and how insignificant we are in comparison etc etc).
They were making a big noise last week about how Amsterdam has overtaken London in equity trading. They were very excited about it. The Remoaner press were banging on and on about how this was indication that Brexit was a bad idea. What nobody disclosed was this chart:
So, all this fake news from the Remoaner side does need a response; it's good that it's getting that response here from several UKBF members.
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T
The Byre
The only problem with that is the precarious state of the world's financial markets right now.
The US economy is no longer buoyed up by productivity in goods and services but by asset speculation. And it ain't no ordinary asset speculation neither - we are talking mass hysteria! People taking out second mortgages to buy shares in companies that have themselves been borrowing money to do a share buy-back to inflate their share prices.
Most of them 'stimmy' cheques have been gambled away on Bitcoin and tech stocks. Here's a typical example - MicroStrategies is a stock-analysis software maker and was worth about $1bn market cap until Autumn. Then they started buying Bitcoin. Then they followed Musk's example and borrowed to buy $3bn in Bitcoin. The Reddit crowd heard about this and like lemmings with mad-cow-disease, they piled in - now the company has a market cap of about $9bn!
And that is one of thousands of over-leveraged companies producing either nothing or very little. That house of cards is now a mighty edifice towering above the financial sector.
When it collapses, many of those mortgages, those company bonds, student debt, those boat and car loans will go begging.
The CDO crisis was triggered by just 5% of the market going delinquent. The CDO market got its' numbers wrong by just 5%. We are now waaaay over that!
According to Her Majesty's Royal Bean Counters, UK GDP in 2020 fell by 10%. "Bo-locks!" say I. That was just the NOMINAL GDP. That was just counting all the pounds exchanged - a currency that the BoE has been churning out in monetized QE. Real GDP is all the goods and services produced and NOT the money that changed hands.
My guestimate is that at least 20% of the UK and the US economies has been lost - and half of that probably ain't coming back no more! Every theatre, film studio, music venue, pub, restaurant, hotel, non-essential shop, amusement park, all dark.
Consumer durables - down 30%. Wholesale - down 20%. Auto parts - down 17%. Auto sales - down 12%. Energy - down 32%. Industrial supplies - down 12%. Property sales - down 12%.
And at the end of that sickly food-chain is the financial sector. An industry that went into stasis when CDOs had to correct by 5%.
And every time that there is a crisis, central banks everywhere are leaned upon to create more money to paper over the cracks - and when that happens, I reach for my copy of 'When Money Dies' by Adam Fergusson.
To see what our future looks like!
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I'm fairly sure that 21/22 is after 31/1/2020, and so an increase in 21/22 is an increase since 31/1/2020
What else could it be?
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Wait, you didn't know in 2018 that we'd be leaving the EU? 2 years after the vote and with negotiations going on, with a planned leave date of the end of 2019.
Did you think that it wasn't going to happen? Suddenly we'd decide to remain?
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The NHS has a fantastic appetite for money, my experience of the Norfolk and Norwich shows a glimmer of where the real money goes, 23 x operating theatres used every day, plus some smaller units for less major ops, 6 x multi million radiotherapy machines full to capacity, lots of CT and MRI scanner and that's just one hospital,
I must say that the service was first class and as both a in patient and out patient i could not find any faults and all things ran smoothly
I must say that the service was first class and as both a in patient and out patient i could not find any faults and all things ran smoothly
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@Paul Norman , no, I'm not arguing that we're seeing the Brexit dividend. That will come over the longer term.
But the only way to deal will the silliness of people banging on about £350m on the side of the bus is to speak to them in their own language.
The facts remain as they've always been. I've consistently maintained that EU can do b*gger all to make a dent in London's position in the financial markets (despite all the faith Remoaners seem to have in how big the EU's economy is, and how insignificant we are in comparison etc etc).
They were making a big noise last week about how Amsterdam has overtaken London in equity trading. They were very excited about it. The Remoaner press were banging on and on about how this was indication that Brexit was a bad idea. What nobody disclosed was this chart:
So, all this fake news from the Remoaner side does need a response; it's good that it's getting that response here from several UKBF members.
Personally, I am very much not interested in the specifics of the bus, but the actuality of how the economy now plays out.
I immediately discount arguments that revert to campaign language. What every was, or was not, understood by the bus message doesn't actually matter now. It's getting a bit dull talking about it.
So, of course, is using terms like Remoaner. It's fine for those locked in tabloid-esq single syllable debating language.
But the reality is, we should be monitoring the economy, and ensuring that the UK does deliver a world class outcome. Understanding the challenges leaving the EU might add to that will better facilitate it being achieved.
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Agreed, the economy will take a hit with the recession/depression heading our way, overdue since the markets were supported since 2008, all the way to today, so a large correction is overdue. With all this QE going on around the world, many economies are going to suffer badly for say a couple of years, then a new time of growth will surface again, and so on. The economic cycle is pretty constant, recessions every 10/20 years, depressions every 90/100 years.
Leaving the EU will bring opportunities with downsides for some, people need to wake up and get on with things instead of trying to win an argument lost many years ago.
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I only mentioned the bus because you suggested the referendum result had nothing to do with the economy, or something similar.
However, I entirely agree. The debate now needs to be about the reality and how to improve that going forwards. That has to include the reality for those businesses that are facing negative impacts. Exporting live shellfish to Vietnam instead of to the EU is really not a suggestion that will improve things.
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After reading many, many pages of this thread, going way back to specific points in the whole drama. It's fairly obvious that British business has delusions of grandeur... I guess that's why all the successful Brits leave! Many of which have more control over government policy now they've left than when they were living there.
British business has totally failed itself, it fails to even lobby the right politicians. (Though to be fair, the politicians don't even know who or what they represent. They're too busy throwing each other under buses left, right and center. Anything to avoid taking responsibility.) UK business is always secondary to foreign businesses/interest yet few seem to care.
The rest of the world would be mad to take any of you seriously. You literally spent 100 billion (Nearly a years worth of an NHS budget) on a testing regime that's totally counter intuitive. Yet a sizeable majority take pride in that. The ROW see a weak self-indulgent nation, ripe for the picking.
Do any of you want to leave anything positive to your offspring? Or is serfdom a kind of character building?
British business has totally failed itself, it fails to even lobby the right politicians. (Though to be fair, the politicians don't even know who or what they represent. They're too busy throwing each other under buses left, right and center. Anything to avoid taking responsibility.) UK business is always secondary to foreign businesses/interest yet few seem to care.
The rest of the world would be mad to take any of you seriously. You literally spent 100 billion (Nearly a years worth of an NHS budget) on a testing regime that's totally counter intuitive. Yet a sizeable majority take pride in that. The ROW see a weak self-indulgent nation, ripe for the picking.
Do any of you want to leave anything positive to your offspring? Or is serfdom a kind of character building?
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