Brexit negotiations

[KM-Tiger]

If this new agreement does not get passed by the MP's then what are the chances that the some members of the EU will say enough is enough and not grant any extension, remember it only takes one vote to stop it

Varadkar and Macron have already said that.

So it looks like the choice is deal or no deal.

 

[RobinBHM]

If this new agreement does not get passed by the MP's then what are the chances that the some members of the EU will say enough is enough and not grant any extension, remember it only takes one vote to stop it

The noise from across the channel is just to encourage UK MPs to vote through the deal.

The 27 would 100% agree to an extension......

The idea that the EU would not agree to an extension rather contradicts Brexiteers argument that no deal has to be on the table to force the EU to get a better deal.

if the deal gets the votes then the EU can get on with other business, they really dont want to dragged into UK politics, they want to get on with other business.

 

[Mr D]

Well, I guess they'll be grateful they can buy it tariff-free today - as we have a trade deal with Japan (being part of the EU). (Maybe they'll start stock-piling too.)

Great to have a provisional agreement that will mean we can still sell one product, tariff-free to a country that has minimal interest in the product.


Karl Limpert

Minimal interest?
Like UK has for Mcdonalds or KFC? Like the Japanese have for non-Japanese alcoholic drinks?

 

[Mr D]

If this new agreement does not get passed by the MP's then what are the chances that the some members of the EU will say enough is enough and not grant any extension, remember it only takes one vote to stop it

So even if Boris complies with the Surrender act fully, still may be the same two options available next week as we have now.
Can we call Noel Edmunds in? Deal or no deal...

But will the MPs who were so against leaving with no deal vote for this deal or vote for no deal to happen????

 

[RobinBHM]

But will the MPs who were so against leaving with no deal vote for this deal or vote for no deal to happen????

A vote for this deal is a vote for no deal.

"A MP calling for a hard Brexit has said he could vote for Boris Johnson’s deal with the EU because ministers have assured him it leaves open the possibility that the UK could crash out of Europe on World Trade Organization terms."

 

[Clinton]

So you weren't happy with May's deal and you are not happy with Boris's deal. Exactly what deal would you have been happy with that the EU would agree?

A Remain deal!

Haven't you not been paying attention?

No deal is better than that deal?

I've not read it all, but I've read chunks and it's not pretty.

Regardless of what side of the debate you stand, I think this is the worse agreement possible.

Agreed. It's a great deal for the EU. Which is why they want to reduce other options and force Parliament to accept it (that and the fact that they're fed up with Brexit).

 

[Mr D]

A Remain deal!

Haven't you not been paying attention?


I've not read it all, but I've read chunks and it's not pretty.


Agreed.

UK government are in favour of leaving and the opposition may be in favour of leaving - if it keeps people unsure what the party wants.
Just think, this could have all been avoided by simply agreeing to a general election when the request was done last month. Or even a no confidence vote in the government since the last one.

 

[MBE2017]

Varadkar and Macron have already said that.

So it looks like the choice is deal or no deal.

Let’s hope it does get voted down and the EU refuse an extension, but we all know it is about the money, the EU will give as many extensions as required, to get such a one sided deal signed.

I prefer WTO clean break.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Let’s hope it does get voted down and the EU refuse an extension, but we all know it is about the money, the EU will give as many extensions as required, to get such a one sided deal signed.

I prefer WTO clean break.

That could be true of France and Germany but there must be plenty of the less influential countries who don't have large trading with the UK, who may feel inclined to put a spanner in the works rather than being dominated over by the big two

 

[RobinBHM]

I prefer WTO clean break

It may the direction the UK is headed, but its not a solution, although it might be fun seeing the UK try.

A former WTO negotiator explains:

And despite Farages claim it is the opposite of a clean break, from the EU.

We have been conditioned to think trade deals are simply tariffs, they arent, the biggest barriers to trade are regulations.
Ask the experts in chemical and engineering fields about the nightmare of divergence.

 

[Clinton]

At the IMF:

In an exclusive interview on the fringes of the IMF's annual meetings, Gita Gopinath (the IMF's chief economist) said if the draft deal agreed by the UK government and the EU is approved by parliament on Saturday, it will be unlikely to compromise its forecast for UK economic growth which sees Britain growing at a faster rate than Germany or France this year and next.

And also

Britain has already absorbed almost all the economic pain of Brexit.

That is so funny.

The IMF are the people who predicted an immediate recession and major economic disaster in 2016 if we didn't vote the way they wanted us to vote.

Dear IMF, I voted Remain and there was no economic disaster immediately after the vote, no evaporation of FDI (FDI has been very strong), no massive Greece-style unemployment (our employment levels are the highest they've been for 40 years), no immediate double digit interest rates....nothing.

What were you smoking when you made those predictions?

But then you said the disaster is still to come." Oh, you haven't left yet, wait till you leave, your economy will crash." OK, so you changed your predictions and that all this damage will happen not after the vote but after Brexit.

Now that Brexit is about to happen, you do a 180* turn and say that "Britain has already absorbed almost all the economic pain of Brexit".

Almost all? So hardly any pain to come?

Not only will our economy not crash, but we'll do better than France and Germany?!

WTF, IMF, WTF?

 

[gpietersz]

@Clinton complex models with limited data (like economic or climate change, or financial risk ones, to take important examples) are too hard to test so:

1. you never really know if you have got it right
2. precise predictions are not credible
3. you can get the forecast you want by twiddling the assumptions a bit

It is much better to have simple models and live with their limitations, however economists want to feel like real scientists so they want lots of numbers and complex models.

I hardly need comment on complex financial risk models, given what they did to banks.

In the case of Brexit people went a bit further though. For example a lot of remainer economists like "gravity models" which assumes that trade with nearby countries is worth a lot more than trade with distant countries, and on that basis says leaving the EU would be a disaster. Its a silly assumption as (especially for the UK) give the opposite results to comparative advantage, the main reason for believing international trade is a good thing in the first place.

 

[Newchodge]

Let's take back control was meant, by many, to mean taking back control and giving it to our democratically eleted parliament. Given Johnson's statement at the end of the amendment vote today, followed by Rees-Mogg's point of order, is any Brexit supporter satisfied that our democratically elected parliament has any control?

 

[gpietersz]

Taking back control from the EU to the UK.

The balance of power within the UK is a different question, and the main problems there are 1) the courts making law to allow them to intervene in political decisions 2) MPs who will neither support the government nor remove it.

 

[Newchodge]

Taking back control from the EU to the UK.

The balance of power within the UK is a different question, and the main problems there are 1) the courts making law to allow them to intervene in political decisions 2) MPs who will neither support the government nor remove it.

To what or to whom can control be returned if it is not to the UK parliament? Whatever their balance of power, beliefs or intentions. Or are you trying to say that Parliament can only have control if they exercise it in a way that is 'approved' in some way by someone?

 

[gpietersz]

To what or to whom can control be returned if it is not to the UK parliament?

To the UK's system of government as a whole - which means parliament and minister and judges, and even (to a small extent) the monarch.

 

[Newchodge]

To the UK's system of government as a whole - which means parliament and minister and judges, and even (to a small extent) the monarch.

That diesn't fit with your previous response.

 

[gpietersz]

@Newchodge why not? I want the power moved back to the UK. Even though I am not happy with the current UK parliament's behaviour a lot them will be out at the next election, and I think the UK's system, if not perfect, is preferable to staying in the UK

 

[Deleted member 59730]

and I think the UK's system, if not perfect, is preferable to staying in the UK

I am sure that Scotland agrees with you, probably Wales!

 

[Newchodge]

I want the power moved back to the UK. Even though I am not happy with the current UK parliament's behaviour a lot them will be out at the next election,

That is the problem. It doesn't matter whether you, or I are
" happy with the current UK parliament's behaviour" they are the ones whose role it is to decide on these things.

 

[Mr D]

That is the problem. It doesn't matter whether you, or I are
" happy with the current UK parliament's behaviour" they are the ones whose role it is to decide on these things.

Until the next general election or, if you are lucky, a by election in your area.

 

[MBE2017]

Many of these MP’s living in their Westminister bubble are in for a huge shock come the next GE. Loads of the public will not forgive their behaviour. Time to drain the swamp, cannot come soon enough IMO.

 

[Newchodge]

Many of these MP’s living in their Westminister bubble are in for a huge shock come the next GE. Loads of the public will not forgive their behaviour. Time to drain the swamp, cannot come soon enough IMO.

How, exactly, do you expect that to work? Do you mean sitting MP's will be deselected in favour of other candidates? Do you mean people will vote for different parties? Which ones? What will happen in seats when the only candidates are Tory, Labour or Lib Dem?

Given the huge number of leave supporters who have declared that they will never vote again, how do you think that will work?

 

[Mr D]

How, exactly, do you expect that to work? Do you mean sitting MP's will be deselected in favour of other candidates? Do you mean people will vote for different parties? Which ones? What will happen in seats when the only candidates are Tory, Labour or Lib Dem?

Given the huge number of leave supporters who have declared that they will never vote again, how do you think that will work?

I can imagine a lot of those angry at their sitting MP will find someone else to vote for.
Local labour party may select the sitting MP, what happens if lots of the previous voters for that person move their vote elsewhere?

Are there many seats where there are only 3 parties standing? Over multiple general elections in multiple areas I've not had less than 5 parties standing, once had 11.

 

[Newchodge]

I am a lifelong Labour supporter angry at my MP because of their Brexit stance. I cannot vote Tory, I believe in the sanctity of human life, I cannot vote Brexit, I would rather poke pins into my eyes. I cannot vote Lib Dem, I remember their betrayal when they formed the coalition. I can vote for Elsie down the road, whose ideas I agree with. Not many others agree with her ideas, so she will not win. That'll work.

 

[Mr D]

I am a lifelong Labour supporter angry at my MP because of their Brexit stance. I cannot vote Tory, I believe in the sanctity of human life, I cannot vote Brexit, I would rather poke pins into my eyes. I cannot vote Lib Dem, I remember their betrayal when they formed the coalition. I can vote for Elsie down the road, whose ideas I agree with. Not many others agree with her ideas, so she will not win. That'll work.

Lots of people who believe in the sanctity of human life vote tory.

Up to you who you vote for but if you vote for your sitting MP despite their Brexit stance you are changing nothing.

My parents are lifelong Labour supporters. They have said next time they aren't voting any of the main parties, disgusted with the lot of them. If Brexit is standing in their area they will vote that.

In your area all Elsie has to do is not annoy those annoyed at the actions of parliament. And she's in with a chance.

 

[simon field]

To what or to whom can control be returned if it is not to the UK parliament? Whatever their balance of power, beliefs or intentions. Or are you trying to say that Parliament can only have control if they exercise it in a way that is 'approved' in some way by someone?

It's nice that at the moment, it feels more like the people have the power - how it should be

 

[Clinton]

I cannot vote Tory, I believe in the sanctity of human life...

I'm not voting Tory, but the sheer arrogance in how you dismiss all Tory voters, millions and millions of them, is breathtaking!

Ditch the hate. It's okay to have different political opinions, but it's immature to trash all those who don't agree with you as lacking respect for human life (and, presumably, indirectly killing a load of people). Get a grip!

 

[Chawton]

Funnily enough, as a former labour voter the sanctity of human life informs my decision to no longer support the party. It's leadership (PLP and membership) is essentially communist, which, lest we forget is the most murderous political ideology of the 20th Century.

The experiment has been run numerous times. I don't know how high the pile of bodies needs to be before people finally decide it's not a very good idea.

 

[Mr D]

Funnily enough, as a former labour voter the sanctity of human life informs my decision to no longer support the party. It's leadership (PLP and membership) is essentially communist, which, lest we forget is the most murderous political ideology of the 20th Century.

The experiment has been run numerous times. I don't know how high the pile of bodies needs to be before people finally decide it's not a very good idea.

Ah but it previously it wasn't 'true' socialism the disciples cry.
Besides the point that each time the believers knew they were implementing 'true' socialism.
As a former labour party member the issue of sanctity of human life hasn't impacted my voting. I don't demonise people who have different ideas, even if I believe they hold the wrong ideas.

 

[MBE2017]

I am a lifelong Labour supporter angry at my MP because of their Brexit stance. I cannot vote Tory, I believe in the sanctity of human life, I cannot vote Brexit, I would rather poke pins into my eyes. I cannot vote Lib Dem, I remember their betrayal when they formed the coalition.

Strange, for someone who believes in the sanctity of human life, how can you support a party that led the country into an illegal war that killed hundreds of thousands under Blair?

Or is it because they were called New Labour, it doesn’t count in your eyes? Or do foreign lives not count? What about the just under 200 British forces lives lost in that illegal conflict? Do they not count either?

 

[MBE2017]

Sad to see how politicians from all sides required police escorts for protection today, the vile abuse shouted at Rees Mogg and his son was particularly uncouth.

I might disagree with remoaners, but I wouldn’t verbally or physically attack them. A lot of people need to look at their actions today.

 

[Mr D]

Sad to see how politicians from all sides required police escorts for protection today, the vile abuse shouted at Rees Mogg and his son was particularly uncouth.

I might disagree with remoaners, but I wouldn’t verbally or physically attack them. A lot of people need to look at their actions today.

Yes, must admit the politicians, while they deserve to lose their jobs, don't deserve abuse.
The same people hurling abuse at them will hurl abuse at those who are not politicians and just believe different than them.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

How, exactly, do you expect that to work? Do you mean sitting MP's will be deselected in favour of other candidates? Do you mean people will vote for different parties? Which ones? What will happen in seats when the only candidates are Tory, Labour or Lib Dem?

Given the huge number of leave supporters who have declared that they will never vote again, how do you think that will work?

For years and years supporters have just backed a party rather than the person

I strongly expect nearly all people, but the die hards, will if they bother to vote, to be very selective of the candidate manifesto, and beliefs rather than just follow a party

I also think that local candidates will be more likely to be selected rather than the candidates brought in from outside the boundaries by the party's

It will also be the best chance for independents to nail their colours to the mast and get elected

I don't think the parties understand the displeasure of the present MP's by the electorate especially the parties offering a second referendum, who make a mockery of all the voters who voted originally

 

[Mr D]

It will also be the best chance for independents to nail their colours to the mast and get elected

I don't think the parties understand the displeasure of the present MP's by the electorate especially the parties offering a second referendum, who make a mockery of all the voters who voted originally

Indeed - the biggest plus point the other parties have is 'we are not these parliamentary parties that have caused problems'.

Wonder if monster raving loony party will be standing? They always used to do good leaflets and once got some money from Screaming Lord Sutch. Chocolate coins.

 

[MBE2017]

I don't think the parties understand the displeasure of the present MP's by the electorate especially the parties offering a second referendum, who make a mockery of all the voters who voted originally

They are going to find out shortly, I expect a high turnout at the next election and expect Labour to do particularly badly due to JC fence sitting on Brexit.

 

[Newchodge]

Strange, for someone who believes in the sanctity of human life, how can you support a party that led the country into an illegal war that killed hundreds of thousands under Blair?

I resigned from the Labour party ober the Iraq war and I believe that Blair and Bush should be tried for war crimes.

 

[RobinBHM]

For years and years supporters have just backed a party rather than the person

Prior to the referendum I had little real knowledge of politics, I just always voted Tory because come from a Telegraph reading middle class family.

But the Brexit debate has made me realise the shortcomings of Tribal politics and the 2 party FPTP system here.

Now I ignore party politics and look for policies wherever they come from.

Corbyn has been a pretty awful leader, but he does have some good policies in amongst the madness.

 

[Mr D]

I resigned from the Labour party ober the Iraq war and I believe that Blair and Bush should be tried for war crimes.

Hopefully with the same judges they used for Saddam Hussain.

 

[Mr D]

Looking at the Monster Raving Loony Party on Wikipedia at the moment (my wife thinks I'd be a good fit). Political position - sitting, facing forward. Banning greyhound racing, stop the country going to the dogs...