Lockdown : lives "saved" ? Long term we'll be in deficit.

[simon field]

ladies and gentlemen. We are talking about boris johnson and the conservatives here. Look at them. Look who they actually are and what they actually do (and did). Look at the collective brain cell they have between them!

I can’t even believe that rational people could even begin to think that they nailed it. That they were honest and full of integrity.

I despair, I really do.

 

[Onthebrightside]

'Living the Dream!'

LOL - it's true. I went for a walk into town today, past the little church with chiming bells every quarter hour, sun shining, took a walk through the river path and dropped back to the high street. Literally, birds singing, ducks on the river (we have a sign for a duck crossing hazzard - triangle with a duck in it - I kid you not). Popped into all the little shops, gave the Greggs a swerve because I'm piling on the pounds just recently. But yeah, for a girl off a scummy council estate in London ... I'm living the dream . All I need now is a little puppy - job done, life perfect. I just can't decide what kind of puppy to get - but that's for another post if feel

 

[Onthebrightside]

Where do we know covid19 was in the uk by Nov19, all i have seen is various people saying they had or knew people who had or had treated people who had symptoms like Covid in Dec19/Jan20.

As samples are kept in sudden deaths (or even bodies can be exhumed) and can still be tested for presence of covid can you point me at a single official document pointing at provable evidence of a uk infection prior to Jan 1

Well the modelling was ( i have had a conversation with my son about this)

If we had locked down hard and fast we could have stopped it becoming endemic.

As long as you kept R<1 then each person infected <1 person and the outbreak would have died out. We could have locked down hard, opened up after a few weeks with localised lockdowns if any infections got in (via any travel that did take place), this is what NZ did and Aus. They had far fewer days of lockdown due to early isolation. That meant standard medical screening and cancer treatments etc were less impacted

The issue was was dithered and dallied and by the time we started lockdown it was too late to stop it becoming endemic and we were then trying to manage the infection rate to "flatten the curve". Then just as we were sorting it we decided to relax and have eat out to help out which was stupid.

If the plan was to help the economy it didnt as we had to lockdown again - if it was to spread covid further and faster for herd immunity it was marginally succesful

I so agree, I was staggered by the Eat Out to Help Out infection assistance, what was he thinking!

 

[Onthebrightside]

ladies and gentlemen. We are talking about boris johnson and the conservatives here. Look at them. Look who they actually are and what they actually do (and did). Look at the collective brain cell they have between them!

I can’t even believe that rational people could even begin to think that they nailed it. That they were honest and full of integrity.

I despair, I really do.

I think it's you that's not getting this. We're not on a political rant - it's only you doing that. Your whole point on this has been your wish to prove the current Government is not worthy in your opinion. We're discussing the 'save lives' part.

 

[Bob Morgan]

I think it's you that's not getting this. We're not on a political rant - it's only you doing that. Your whole point on this has been your wish to prove the current Government is not worthy in your opinion. We're discussing the 'save lives' part.

"If we do not talk about it - It might go away!"

 

[simon field]

I think it's you that's not getting this. We're not on a political rant - it's only you doing that. Your whole point on this has been your wish to prove the current Government is not worthy in your opinion. We're discussing the 'save lives' part.

All kinds of things we could do to ‘save lives’, if that’s really what you think all those pathetic attempts were about. They weren’t though, they were more about ‘saving face’, and not having the woefully inadequate nhs exposed for all to see.

 

[Bob Morgan]

LOL - it's true. I went for a walk into town today, past the little church with chiming bells every quarter hour, sun shining, took a walk through the river path and dropped back to the high street. Literally, birds singing, ducks on the river (we have a sign for a duck crossing hazzard - triangle with a duck in it - I kid you not). Popped into all the little shops, gave the Greggs a swerve because I'm piling on the pounds just recently. But yeah, for a girl off a scummy council estate in London ... I'm living the dream . All I need now is a little puppy - job done, life perfect. I just can't decide what kind of puppy to get - but that's for another post if feel

I heard that the Wethersfield Camp, North of Braintree, is to be used for Asylum Seekers . . . Surely a Tempest gathering on the Sunlit Uplands!

 

[Duke Fame]

Where do we know covid19 was in the uk by Nov19, all i have seen is various people saying they had or knew people who had or had treated people who had symptoms like Covid in Dec19/Jan20.

As samples are kept in sudden deaths (or even bodies can be exhumed) and can still be tested for presence of covid can you point me at a single official document pointing at provable evidence of a uk infection prior to Jan 1 2020

Talk amongst medics was it was definitely here in later 2019. My wife has a lot of doctor customers in various major North West hospitals and individually have mentioned this. One very senior medic in a hospital in Manchester said they started to see deaths in people with ‘flu & Influenza who’d they’d expect to pull through. Specifically with inflamed organs which later would be common to Covid victims.

This may all seem very anecdotal word of mouth evidence but a pal of mine who I share a drink with when I go to the football is a very senor Doctor, he has worked on many high level and prominent cases, inquiries including disasters, big NHS hospital investigations etc. I’m not going to name him but we have spoken about the whole Covid thing. We’ve had discussions since football returned and he is clear that the virus was in the UK before Christmas 2019. He speaks with the benefit of hindsight, there was no suggestion from him that they knew something was not right just that there were a few unusual cases. I contacted him for his thoughts during covid, this was his take.

“My own hunch (and I realise that we are in a PH evidence free zone again!) is that there were bound to have been unknown and untested cases in January, well before the supposed first cases on 29 January.”

“We’ve seen instances before Christmas where symptoms of fever, coughing and usually the reason for hospitalisation was severe breathlessness.”

“When my daughter's school resumed after the Christmas break, a number of pupils fell ill over the next week, including my daughter (14). Symptoms: very severe cough indeed, fever, feeling unwell, lasted two weeks plus. Within a few days, [name removed] (her mother) and I came down with the same symptoms, including in my case some breathlessness and I noticed altered small and taste. It wasn't flu like (and I'd had swine flu in 2008), and I put it down to probable respiratory syncytial virus. But there was no detectable outbreak of either RSV or flu in 2020 (and it would have been very severe flu), and there certainly was the mother of all outbreaks of Covid-19 with exactly the same symptoms. Oh, I almost forgot: two girls in my daughter's school year returned to school having visited relatives in China over the school holidays.”

“You are right of course that I could be mistaken and it was just some other virus. But I don't think so, and it ties in with the other - also circumstantial admittedly - evidence that it was widespread much sooner than admitted by China.”

To be clear, the notion that we locked down too quickly, too comprehensively and for too long is MY own view, not that of my pal. He is careful in what he says on this as you can tell from the above. He is however, scathing about the media coverage, particularly describing ‘super-spreader’ events such as Cheltenham and Lverpool vs Athletico Madrid before the lockdown. He points to all sorts of evidence that these events would have a very minor risk.

There are other proper articles on it but this is a ‘pop news’ report re. cases before

Fergus Walsh: Was coronavirus here earlier than we thought? - BBC News

 

[Duke Fame]

Well the modelling was ( i have had a conversation with my son about this)

If we had locked down hard and fast we could have stopped it becoming endemic.

As long as you kept R<1 then each person infected <1 person and the outbreak would have died out. We could have locked down hard, opened up after a few weeks with localised lockdowns if any infections got in (via any travel that did take place), this is what NZ did and Aus. They had far fewer days of lockdown due to early isolation. That meant standard medical screening and cancer treatments etc were less impacted

The issue was was dithered and dallied and by the time we started lockdown it was too late to stop it becoming endemic and we were then trying to manage the infection rate to "flatten the curve". Then just as we were sorting it we decided to relax and have eat out to help out which was stupid.

If the plan was to help the economy it didnt as we had to lockdown again - if it was to spread covid further and faster for herd immunity it was marginally succesful

We are not NZ or Australia.

If you visit the Capital of NZ, it's ridiculously quiet, has a rail station with a handful of trains an hour, mainly dealing with freight from the South Island and a bus station that mainly caters for tourists. My birth town is Reading, a medium sized UK town with a rail station and bus station that is absolutely rammed with people moving about.

Australia has a population density of 3 per sq KM compared to our's of 280 9and take away the mountainous areas, ours is closer to 800.

The horse had already bolted.

 

[IanSuth]

We are not NZ or Australia.

If you visit the Capital of NZ, it's ridiculously quiet, has a rail station with a handful of trains an hour, mainly dealing with freight from the South Island and a bus station that mainly caters for tourists. My birth town is Reading, a medium sized UK town with a rail station and bus station that is absolutely rammed with people moving about.

Australia has a population density of 3 per sq KM compared to our's of 280 9and take away the mountainous areas, ours is closer to 800.

The horse had already bolted.

Despite you "anecdotal" tales of symptoms like covid being in the uk pre dec99 there is no evidence. People have been looking for it, old samples have been retested and there is still no evidence.

When those tourists were brought back in and driven the length of the country in Horseman coaches (from reading and the same coaches used by my daughters school here) which was 29 Jan 2020 there was already lots of talk about shutting the borders and many many people were saying anyone like those people being flown into Brize Norton should instead of being shipped to a camp in cheshire taken to the bunker at Corsham (just down the road) which has a full hospital and is hermetically sealed and be treated in there. The local forums were full of it as it was our children's coach drivers we could see on the tv with people in biohazard suits stood behind them in the coach

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/r.../reading-bus-drivers-who-transported-17673379 story from 1/2/20 where it mentions no one had died outside china but was suspected in 23 countries

At the time there were 6 confirmed cases in the UK (so likely still under 100 infections), I am as adamant as certain people here that lockdown was wrong that instead if we had shut international travel immediately we got wind of Covid and instigated strict quarantine or even a lockdown immediately then we could have got away with very limited disruption compared with the 2 years of dithering/changing rules/about faces/political theatre and wastes of money.

I worked in reading town centre at the time within 100m of the station and yet early march we were still going to restaurants and my daughter played full contact rugby in a scrum on Mar 15th 2020 (it was stopped the following day), i know that date for definite as we went out with all her mates for her 18th on the Friday before and then she played her first adult game on that Sunday.

That is a clear 6 weeks after those tourists were shipped back

 

[Duke Fame]

Despite you "anecdotal" tales of symptoms like covid being in the uk pre dec99 there is no evidence. People have been looking for it, old samples have been retested and there is still no evidence.

When those tourists were brought back in and driven the length of the country in Horseman coaches (from reading and the same coaches used by my daughters school here) which was 29 Jan 2020 there was already lots of talk about shutting the borders and many many people were saying anyone like those people being flown into Brize Norton should instead of being shipped to a camp in cheshire taken to the bunker at Corsham (just down the road) which has a full hospital and is hermetically sealed and be treated in there. The local forums were full of it as it was our children's coach drivers we could see on the tv with people in biohazard suits stood behind them in the coach

https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/r.../reading-bus-drivers-who-transported-17673379 story from 1/2/20 where it mentions no one had died outside china but was suspected in 23 countries

At the time there were 6 confirmed cases in the UK (so likely still under 100 infections), I am as adamant as certain people here that lockdown was wrong that instead if we had shut international travel immediately we got wind of Covid and instigated strict quarantine or even a lockdown immediately then we could have got away with very limited disruption compared with the 2 years of dithering/changing rules/about faces/political theatre and wastes of money.

I worked in reading town centre at the time within 100m of the station and yet early march we were still going to restaurants and my daughter played full contact rugby in a scrum on Mar 15th 2020 (it was stopped the following day), i know that date for definite as we went out with all her mates for her 18th on the Friday before and then she played her first adult game on that Sunday.

That is a clear 6 weeks after those tourists were shipped back

I was very clear this was "anecdotal" but I shared it with you to give food for thought. I'm giving you the view of possibly the most senior Public Health and medical management consultant in the country.

i thought you'd consider it interesting but if you just want confirmation bias, I'll leave you to it.

 

[IanSuth]

I was very clear this was "anecdotal" but I shared it with you to give food for thought. I'm giving you the view of possibly the most senior Public Health and medical management consultant in the country.

i thought you'd consider it interesting but if you just want confirmation bias, I'll leave you to it.

Nope I don't think it is confirmation bias to say that despite it very much being in the interest of various people to say "we couldnt have done any more as it was already here" and despite massive amounts of testing (worldwide) to try and ascertain the source of the outbreak there is currently no publicly available evidence to show an earlier start to the pandemic.

Here is a study that tried to use novel methods to backtrack infection and predict an original date - best they can come up with is "most likely timing of the first case to be November 17, 2019" with a first overseas infection as in Japan on Jan 3rd and to quote - "The results suggest this was followed by the United Kingdom on January 22, 2020"

Dating first cases of COVID-19

Author summary While the COVID-19 pandemic continues, questions still persist as to its origins. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred before the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. We date the origin of COVID-19 cases from 203 countries and...

journals.plos.org

I am happy to go with that date, by then I was already talking about shutting the borders and the Chinese people on the coach were 1 week later.

The WHO give a first outside China infection as Jan 13 and declared it a Public Health Emergency of International COncern on Jan 30

 

[Onthebrightside]

All kinds of things we could do to ‘save lives’, if that’s really what you think all those pathetic attempts were about. They weren’t though, they were more about ‘saving face’, and not having the woefully inadequate nhs exposed for all to see.

Moving the goal posts again I see to try to continue with your political rant.

 

[Onthebrightside]

I heard that the Wethersfield Camp, North of Braintree, is to be used for Asylum Seekers . . . Surely a Tempest gathering on the Sunlit Uplands!

Some are out with their pitchforks it's true. But they feel the same about Londoners The Wethersfield Camp prior to that was being considered as an open prison.

My grandmother arrived in the UK just before the second world war, she was an eastern European gypsy who was a migrant worker who stayed (in hiding) because she'd seen the way it was going for migrant workers passing through Germany. I have a great tendency not the throw stones. She was fairly dark skinned and referred to all of her life in the street she lived as 'the gypsy woman'. After initial suspicions she was a spy, a stealer of children etc. the street came to love her.

During the war she became an ad-hoc midwife to the street when nurses were occupied helping the wounded. She had 15 children, the 10 that survived to adulthood all did really well for themselves

We have a lot of nursing homes in this area who are extremely short of people willing to take up positions in care and a lot of factories looking for unskilled labour

 

[Onthebrightside]

"If we do not talk about it - It might go away!"

Talk about???

 

[Bob Morgan]

Talk about???

Anything that might be 'Contentious' or that creates more than a little embarrassment. Apparently, it has become Government Policy - 'Housing' springs to mind.

 

[Onthebrightside]

Anything that might be 'Contentious' or that creates more than a little embarrassment. Apparently, it has become Government Policy - 'Housing' springs to mind.

Sorry I thought the post was on if the lock down saved lives

 

[Bob Morgan]

Sorry I thought the post was on if the lock down saved lives

Don't talk about it, and it might go away!

 

[simon field]

Moving the goal posts again I see to try to continue with your political rant.

Look, it’s quite simple. Do you agree that what those people like the best is power, corruption and lies?

Or, if you think they’re the caring sharing sort, just say so.

 

[MarkOnline]

Look, it’s quite simple. Do you agree that what those people like the best is power, corruption and lies?

Or, if you think they’re the caring sharing sort, just say so.

You think that this " power, corruption and lies " is some new political phenomenon. If you read some history (ancient and modern) you may find its been going on a while.
With that being said I think that most of the time they will say what they believe their voters and potential converts want to hear.

 

[MikeJ]

Look, it’s quite simple. Do you agree that what those people like the best is power, corruption and lies?

Or, if you think they’re the caring sharing sort, just say so.

Is your argument that those at the top of the Government were not creating the lockdown for the protection of the population?

If so, how do you argue that the four largest political parties all agreed with the lockdown, or thought we should lockdown earlier and/or tighter?

Just because you disagree with someone, it doesn't mean they're always doing something wrong, or for the wrong reasons.

 

[simon field]

You think that this " power, corruption and lies " is some new political phenomenon. If you read some history (ancient and modern) you may find its been going on a while.
With that being said I think that most of the time they will say what they believe their voters and potential converts want to hear.

I don’t think it’s new, no.

 

[Onthebrightside]

Look, it’s quite simple. Do you agree that what those people like the best is power, corruption and lies?

Or, if you think they’re the caring sharing sort, just say so.

Back to your political rant I see.

 

[Onthebrightside]

You think that this " power, corruption and lies " is some new political phenomenon. If you read some history (ancient and modern) you may find its been going on a while.
With that being said I think that most of the time they will say what they believe their voters and potential converts want to hear.

Agreed. It's true of the majority of the political parties. I'm voting Green. I hope, if they get into any positions of power they'll keep to their promises, but it might be that they put power and the economy over the needs of the planet.

 

[Bob Morgan]

Agreed. It's true of the majority of the political parties. I'm voting Green. I hope, if they get into any positions of power they'll keep to their promises, but it might be that they put power and the economy over the needs of the planet.

The Green Party needs all the support it can get - With only 1 MP!

 

[simon field]

Is your argument that those at the top of the Government were not creating the lockdown for the protection of the population?

If so, how do you argue that the four largest political parties all agreed with the lockdown, or thought we should lockdown earlier and/or tighter?

Just because you disagree with someone, it doesn't mean they're always doing something wrong, or for the wrong reasons.

My argument is that those at the top did things - some of which may have had a residual effect on the statistics at the time - not for the ‘good of the people’, but to make themselves look good (or less bad).

Examples:

1) You must stay home vs Eat out to help out.

2) Don’t kill Granny vs seeding care homes with untested oldies.

3) This is really serious vs Let’s party.

4) It’s really contagious vs Let everyone in on airplanes.

5) Let’s all build nightingale hospitals vs There’s nobody to staff them.

If you think these people care more about you than themselves, I’m afraid I think you’re deluded!

 

[MikeJ]

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

The Stay at home/eat out to help out were at very different times, and at different phases of the pandemic.
Are you saying they should kill granny? There was a lack of tests available at the time.
The partying was a gross lack of leadership.
Letting people in on aeroplanes was poor, but I'm not sure what else could be done. Although the previous posts helpfully point out we're an island, we're reliant on RoRo ferries (unlike Australia and New Zealand, that use container ships and can therefore quarantine the crews.
The nightingale hospitals were effective. We lacked isolation beds, and managed to increase capacity significantly. Fortunately we didn't need to fill them, but if they'd not been built and we'd had to have patients in corridors, then you'd be whining about that now.

Historically, I've always voted conservative. I didn't in 2019, because I really thought Johnson would be a bad PM and I was very anti-Brexit. I'm overjoyed he's gone, and while I don't agree with everything Sunak did, he's obviously a far better PM than Johnson could have dreamt of being. However, I will accept that some of Johnson's decisions around the pandemic were correct, based on what we thought at the time and what we were being told by the experts.

 

[simon field]

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.

The Stay at home/eat out to help out were at very different times, and at different phases of the pandemic.
Are you saying they should kill granny? There was a lack of tests available at the time.
The partying was a gross lack of leadership.
Letting people in on aeroplanes was poor, but I'm not sure what else could be done. Although the previous posts helpfully point out we're an island, we're reliant on RoRo ferries (unlike Australia and New Zealand, that use container ships and can therefore quarantine the crews.
The nightingale hospitals were effective. We lacked isolation beds, and managed to increase capacity significantly. Fortunately we didn't need to fill them, but if they'd not been built and we'd had to have patients in corridors, then you'd be whining about that now.

Historically, I've always voted conservative. I didn't in 2019, because I really thought Johnson would be a bad PM and I was very anti-Brexit. I'm overjoyed he's gone, and while I don't agree with everything Sunak did, he's obviously a far better PM than Johnson could have dreamt of being. However, I will accept that some of Johnson's decisions around the pandemic were correct, based on what we thought at the time and what we were being told by the experts.

Ok, that’s fair enough.

So, last question: who was going to staff the nightingale hospitals?

 

[IanSuth]

Ok, that’s fair enough.

So, last question: who was going to staff the nightingale hospitals?

the plan was military reserves until it was pointed out many of them with the correct experience were actually already working in the health service and couldn't be 2 places at once. Otherwise basically bandsmen I guess (their traditional job in wartime is stretcher bearers so they are all given a small amount of medic knowledge)

Found this which appears quite an impartial critique - https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/2021/04/nhs-nightingale-hospitals-worth-money

 

[Bob Morgan]

How did all of those Vaccine Freezers, Hospital Beds, and other equipment arrive so quickly? - Where did they come from? - And where are they now?

 

[MikeJ]

Most was repurposed from other duties. If you remember, regular hospital treatments were pretty much stopped other than emergencies.

Specialist items were in short supply though. Ventilators, PPE, etc.

 

[Justin Smith]

The Times
1 May 2023 p37
Mark Littlewood : Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs

"Florida pursued an enormously more libertarian approach to Covdi than most of America. This wasn't based on some trade off to seek the right balance between protecting the economy and protecting lives. but rather on a scepticism about the accuracy of modelling and forecasting and a firm belief in individuals being able to sensibly manage their own risk without being subject to a plethora of state diktats.
Data will be poured over and argued about for years, but at first blush it doesn't seem that this approach was especially bad for the literal health of Floridians and it was certainly good for their economy. While most of the western world is just about returning to pre pandemic levels of over all GDP, Florida's economy is about 10% bigger than when Covid hit".

 

[Justin Smith]

Well lucky i wasnt in charge then - my plan would have been a buy time to work out the science but harder at the beginning than we actually had.

I would have shut the borders for 30 days as soon as things looked iffy with a promise of review every 30 days

Those tourists from Italy flown into Heathrow then coached to cheshire if they had to come back they would have been flown into Lyneham and put into the bunker at Corsham (it is designed for a nuclear war and has a hospital inside). I would have allowed anyone to leave the country (via Ferry) who wanted but none coming in other than via that route until we knew the science of the outbreak. Airports would have shut down day 1

All cargo ships to sit off port for a week before docking (we didnt have testing at that point and weren't sure of incubation period) with no crew to disembark.

That would have given us time to work out what to do without huge issues for the economy but def wouldnt have instilled calm in the populace, we would still have had the great loo roll crisis.

All a complete waste of time, Covid was here in January.......

 

[Onthebrightside]

All a complete waste of time, Covid was here in January.......

You should run for Prime Minister your slogan could be - Money before peoples lives. You'd be so popular Mr Moneybags.

Weren't there links between lower Covid rates in high sunlight areas such as the sunshine state of Florida?

 

[alan1302]

You should run for Prime Minister your slogan could be - Money before peoples lives. You'd be so popular Mr Moneybags.

Weren't there links between lower Covid rates in high sunlight areas such as the sunshine state of Florida?

I belive that it was thought sunlight could kill Covid - although it can't - it is UVC rays that kill it which although the sun emits they don't reach us as they are blocked in the atmosphere.

 

[MikeJ]

It's more likely that people in warmer climates spend more time outdoors, and therefore there's a lower transmission rate.

 

[MikeJ]

The Times
1 May 2023 p37
Mark Littlewood : Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs

In or about 2019, on national radio station LBC, James O'Brien said that the IEA is a politically motivated lobbying organisation funded by "dark money", of "questionable provenance, with dubious ideas and validity", staffed by people who are not proper experts on their topic. The IEA complained to UK media regulator Ofcom that those remarks were inaccurate and unfair. In August 2021, Ofcom rejected the complaint

 

[IanSuth]

All a complete waste of time, Covid was here in January.......

You didnt read my post did you

I gave you evidenced opinion of a likely first uk infection on Jan 22nd - the coachloads of people being bussed the length of the country was a week later - I wouldnt have let them in and would have shut the borders during that last week of jan (i was saying that at the time so not 20/20 hindsight) - in which case it would have been with single figure cases in the uk and if we shut the borders at that point and started proper track and trace (not the stupid money making scheme we got) we could have eradicated it before it spread and kept the majority of the economy open.

Exports of goods to others countries badly affected as would anything tourism related (although the need for people to holiday in the UK would have compensated for less inbound tourists) with Airports/Cruise terminals still requiring govt support but at a fraction of the amounts that needed paying out through 21 months of the lockdowns

 

[Justin Smith]

You should run for Prime Minister your slogan could be - Money before peoples lives. You'd be so popular Mr Moneybags.

This is a travesty, you are misquoting me or misunderstanding me.
Having said that, money does unarguably come before lives because if there was no money around we'd all starve to death. Even in a richer country like ours money does correlate with lives because that's what pays for the NHS, and the NHS DOES put a price on lives, or, more accurately, quality life years, and how much they are prepared to pay for each additional quality life year. As was proved some time ago the amount spent on saving lives during Covid was way more than the NHS would spend on keeping anyone alive anyway :

The house of commons library says between £310 and 410 Billion, though that does not include the money lost individually by many people and businesses, nor the reduction in the output of the economy either. Nor does it include any allowance for people's loss of enjoyment, a subjective thing but still of value.
Let's go with £400 Billion.

The value of a QALY seems inconsistent, the highest I have seen is about £100,000 but some estimates I have seen suggest the usual range is 20 to 30 thousand pounds. Irrespective of that we will go with the top estimate : £100,000.

Bit of maths, £400 billion divided by £100,000 comes out at 4,000,000 QALYs.
The approximate life expectancy for the average Covid death (with or from Covid) is about 7 or 8 years (almost certainly much less if they had serious pre existing conditions, but we'll still go with 8).
4,000,000 divided by 8 = 500,000. So, 500,000 lives would have had to have been saved for it to even start qualifying for the NHS QALY criteria. But, not far off 200,000 died of (or with) Covid anyway, so the total death toll would have to have been 700,000, which was never going to happen. Even Ferguson only warned of "up to 500,000 deaths" in his hysterical prediction.

From the other end (very much guesstimates I grant) :
Florida was famously reluctant to suppress their society (and enforce masks). They had a slightly higher death rate than the USA as a whole :
USA = 3245 (av age 38.1)
Florida = 3798 (av age 42.2)
USA to Florida = 17% higher in Florida, but their average age is 11% higher than the USA as whole, so once that is taken into account the difference is even less, we'll go with 14% but it may well be less.

So if we'd had a death rate 14% higher in the UK that'd be an extra 27,500 lives, though that assumes every person who died within 28 days of a positive Covid test died of Covid, but we'll go with it anyway.
27,500 x 8 (av number of years of life lost) = 220,000.
£400 billion divided by 220,000 = about £1.8 million per QALY.

 

[Justin Smith]

Addition to above :

The worst death rate in the world was Peru (despite their really extreme mask mandate....), who were very much at outlier at 0.63% of their population dying from/with Covid, something weird was going on there. So, 0.63% of the UK population 65million would be 409,000, less the 197K who died would be 212,000. So, 212K x 8 = 1.7 million life years. £400 billion divided by 1.7 million equals about £235,000 per QALY. That is way over double what the NHS would spend per year to keep someone alive, because, err, there's only so much money available.