Liz Truss PM - Gone Within a Year?
- Thread starter MOIC
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Extensively briefed and answers prepared. Did you notice how on virtually every answer she mentioned Putin's illegal war, as if that had relevance to each question.
To be frank, there was only one agenda on Starmer's likely 6 questions, all connected.
They are as bad as each other, damp squibs.
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I was speaking to a guy last night who is director of a headhunters' global markets & hedge funds division. He sees the change to bankers bonus rules making zero difference in the short to medium term with regard to bankers recruitment/uk employment levels as the banks already restructured remuneration packages to get around it anyway - it is just a signalling event that we want to do something the Eu wont allow.
Separately though he told me yesterday the £ would crash today and said that is a greater issue - if you are a banker doing worldwide deals you want to be paid in a stable currency as they can basically pretty much choose where they want to be based employment wise and just work in whichever office/place takes their fancy.
He also said +.75% rate rise next week so that might be a way to check the accuracy of his sources
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According to the BBC the £ is at irs lowest for 37 years https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62923994 possibly not a crash, but not good news.
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did you ask why the pound is so weak? I think it's since Truss got elected. I think the pound would have be stable at 1.25usd had sunak been elected.
Sadly people are just social media zombies these days, they want character and personality in their politicans and we have these loony characters in cabinet.
I'm not even a Tory and I miss the days of bland conservative government like david cameron. michael howard, IDS, hague etc. They were bland but at least they weren't unhinged.
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young anti royal liz truss seems so much more natural and authentic. the current versions comes across like a robot.
looks like she had some sort of brain transplant.
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I caught her in Parliament just before the Queen died and she did quite well.
Obviously with meeting Biden and to a lesser extent Macron she will take on board their points and then expect some announcements.
I don't know the detail on her energy support yet if she gets this right it could help her in the next election.
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I agree whole heartedly.
I hate the current crop of Tory politicians with a passion, but look across the benches and see no coherent opposition. As it stands, it wouldn't suprise me if the Tories secured another term. Not through their own ability, but purely because of the lack of opposition with a set of teeth.
If this does happen, then Starmer will have to go and the Labour Party can reset as well. Possible with somebody like Andy Burnha, heading them up.
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I met Andy Burnham briefly a long time ago at an event (before I knew who he was) and a few years later, once he became MCR Mayor, he was also a surprise speaker at another event. Both times I was left impressed by him.
He was, if I remember rightly, gunning for Labour Leader until he pulled out of the race really early and set his sights on Mayor? I would fully expect this is him playing the long game. For me, he's done pretty well for my area and I have to say I'm a fan.
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My position - that Truss would be safe until the next GE, which would not happen until late ‘24 - hasn’t changed, but as of today, I am less certain, and I do think her position is much less safe than it was 24 hours ago. (I still don’t think there will be a GE until late ‘24, I can’t see why the Conservative Party would call one, given that their chances of winning are not high)
Yesterday we had fracking, and JRM attacked by MPs from his own party. Fracking has few fans, and many opponents, particularly in the red wall seats which contain potential fracking sites.
And today we have had the bat $hit crazy mini-budget. The optics of what they have done are bad, and the economics of it worse. They have taken one mighty big roll of the dice, I don’t think Trussonomics, or the KwamiKarsi budget will work, but I could be wrong (often am), however, if I am wrong its going to take a long time for any positive impact to “trickle down” and with two years to a GE, I don’t think there is enough time.
So I could now see Truss gone by Easter, following a winter of discontent (and a sniping, media backed Johnson undermining her with a view to coming back to the top job. But whilst the ageing party faithful in the shires may be calling for his return, I can’t see enough MPs willing to put him on the ballot sheet. So I’m not sure who would replace her)
As @MBE2017 says, there is now a clear dividing line between the conservatives and Labour. Labour will be loving this - much easier to attack the tories on tax cuts for the rich, than levelling up
Yesterday we had fracking, and JRM attacked by MPs from his own party. Fracking has few fans, and many opponents, particularly in the red wall seats which contain potential fracking sites.
And today we have had the bat $hit crazy mini-budget. The optics of what they have done are bad, and the economics of it worse. They have taken one mighty big roll of the dice, I don’t think Trussonomics, or the KwamiKarsi budget will work, but I could be wrong (often am), however, if I am wrong its going to take a long time for any positive impact to “trickle down” and with two years to a GE, I don’t think there is enough time.
So I could now see Truss gone by Easter, following a winter of discontent (and a sniping, media backed Johnson undermining her with a view to coming back to the top job. But whilst the ageing party faithful in the shires may be calling for his return, I can’t see enough MPs willing to put him on the ballot sheet. So I’m not sure who would replace her)
As @MBE2017 says, there is now a clear dividing line between the conservatives and Labour. Labour will be loving this - much easier to attack the tories on tax cuts for the rich, than levelling up
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This ^^^^
For the next two years, it is only her own MPs that can oust her.
Perversely, battles with the unions could strengthen her position - being strong in face of union demands plays well with the Tory base.
But this ridiculous “mini-budget” has weakened their position enormously: very hard to argue that there is no money for a pay rise for a train driver/nurse/teacher, but there is money for tax cut for the richest in society.
48 hours on, and I still can’t understand why they cut the top rate of tax for those earning over £150K - economically any effect will be marginal, politically, its dynamite
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If they had really wanted to help those who need it they should have increased the basic tax free allowance by 2,500. That would give most tax payers £500 which would have mainly been spent in the economy, creating growth. All would get the same amount, except the very lowest paid. The fact they chose to do what they did tells me what I already know - their only interest is in making the super wealthy wealthier.
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Even the rich are puzzled. Loads of well off people phoning in on the radio last few days. Some saying the feel guilty because they're keeping extra money while the poor people are getting nothing.
In the end, someone on 200k might have a few extra quid in their bank but if all the small shops are closing down. The average man and woman is holding onto their pennies and not spending anything what good is your top rate tax cut.
A lot of successful people will be thinking that their businesses are going to take a battering. They'd rather have an economy that functioning as it should than have tax cuts with massively reduced trade.
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..but the government don't care about 'business' in the same way we do. They see it differently. They see success or 'business' as being a banker, investor, hedge fund manager etc. if you own a chain of restaurants you're just a rich poor person, they don't really rate you very much.
If you have a yacht in the Middle East and move digital money about, transferring from the poorest to the richest, they bow and kiss your feet. You are rich. You don't dine with the great unwashed. Your finger nails are clean and your hands are soft. Most pleasing!
The economy they want is service based. Servicing the worlds richest people and moving money around on a laptop. They despise heavy and dirty industry and that's why they're changing planning laws, because they want the great unwashed to be pushed out of the cities and in to the shires, where they cannot be seen or heard. They don't want them darkening their doorsteps every evening, begging for scraps of food from the silver serving trays.
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chasing the banking industry is really just shutting the stables after the horses bolted. It's not enough to bring the bankers back into the UK, For one thing, UK government is unstable - look how often our government have changed during the last 3 years. No big bank is going to make 10-15-20 year commitment to the UK when they don't know what sort of government will be in power next week.
They've made the momentum to move their European offices into an EU country and just keep the UK business in the UK. Nothing is going to change that tide.
They've made the momentum to move their European offices into an EU country and just keep the UK business in the UK. Nothing is going to change that tide.
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I think some will come, like deal makers yet think half of what they hope for.
I expect It will have a secondary knock on effect with London's theatre-land and other London based leisure activities damaged by COV-ID lock downs.
The markets seem to be reacting to Truss reducing the ability of UK to repay national debt with the gamble of growing private enterprise to increase tax returns. Short term an interest rate rise might be needed.
Very short sighted by her economic team to not know the markets would react in this way.
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Or they're genius, everyone is flabbergasted at the idea of reducing tax revenues and borrowing money to pay for public services.
Conservatives seem to be more annoyed with borrowing more money than the reduced taxes.
You know the next move is going to be to cut public spending, worse than 2008. To bring public spending down. She will turn around and say she was forced to by the the parliament and public.
This is looking terrible already, should have just rode out with existing policies until we go through winter and if /when gas prices settle in spring do your budget in April.
Conservatives seem to be more annoyed with borrowing more money than the reduced taxes.
You know the next move is going to be to cut public spending, worse than 2008. To bring public spending down. She will turn around and say she was forced to by the the parliament and public.
This is looking terrible already, should have just rode out with existing policies until we go through winter and if /when gas prices settle in spring do your budget in April.
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britons have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot.
I'm a labour supporter and I would say getting rid of boris over these frivulous things was just stupid. The media and public were bashing him over partygate and the pincher guy (something that was nothing to do with him).
We just have a habit of self-sabotage, getting rid of leaders and replacing them with worse ones.
There is just no point in getting rid of truss when the pound gets this low. We're in the gutter and further government change will just agitate the situation and make it worse.
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T
The Byre
You underestimate the dogged tenacity of politicians!
Also, the Old School Tories on the backbenches are delighted with the non-budget! One Right-wing Tory looked up at the Telegraph's man in the front row of the Parliamentary press gallery and texted “Rejoice we are Conservative again.”
A second Tory MP collared him as he left the Commons chamber with the words “Isn’t it great to have a Conservative government?”
Even Nigel Farage tweeted “Today was the best Conservative budget since 1986.”
It really does remind one of chancellor Barber’s disastrous “dash for growth” budget in 1972, designed to win the Tories the 1974 election and yes, you've guessed it - inflation went bananas and the Tories lost.
Even the Telegraph stated "Kwarteng and Truss are putting all of their roulette chips on black in the political casino and the wheel is spinning!" In 1972, as now, the government was hoping for a miracle and stated "We shall stay the course!"
The real problem is not high taxes, but the nature and structure of government spending. We have had several dreadful years of profligate waste on a scale we have never had before. And all that unbelievable profligacy has been financed by printing currency and government borrowing. Add to that, two years of needless lockdown, fuelled by media hysteria and compounded by leaderless government chaos.
A perfect recipe for inflation.
The real problem is that the world is marching into a worldwide depression because much of the world is doing more or less the same thing. But the money markets have given their initial verdict and marked down the UK economy the most.
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The main problem no politician wants to admit is this is a Worldwide recession, whilst we can fiddle a bit with things history shows the World HAS to go through the pain.
Before people dump on the UK too much, most countries, and Germany is not so far behind have the same problems. In Germany producer costs are up over 45% in the last year, completely unsustainable. If Germany goes into a bad recession as well, the EU could be finished, who will bail them out?
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The problems were similar in 2008 but they just invented a way of kicking the can down the road. Now, we have the 2008 issue coming back PLUS all the recent debt that's been added during Covid PLUS in the UK they've just gone and thrown another 100+ billion on the pile for their mates.
Instead of being calm and gently wiggling things around, they've gone full blown mental and are lobbing grenades in to every bank and every government department. This is insane.
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