Brexit negotiations

[Scott-Copywriter]

Funny how countries like Singapore manage.

Singapore is a city-state tax haven. It has significant geographical advantage in the Asian market which allows it to make large amounts of income via its cargo ports. Combine that with its large manufacturing and financial services sectors, and it's capable of comfortably supporting its 5m residents despite the lack of traditional tax revenues.

It's a completely different ballgame to support a country of 65m. We don't have the sea port, and our financial services and manufacturing sectors wouldn't come close no matter what we do given our x12 larger population. Even on the tax front, it would be very hard to sell that politically, nor could we afford to do anything as extreme as Singapore, as that wouldn't suddenly magic up alternative forms of revenue to replace what we lose.

If it was that easy for a large country to emulate Singapore, Monaco or whatever other country that seems like a bastion of wealth, it would have been done already.

Most of Asia seems to have done better than Europe without any EU like trading blocs (things like ASEAN are not even vaguely comparable - its more like the deal we have with the EU now).

Some of them are rapidly outgrowing the USA too, which is a country I suspect a lot of Brexiteers wish to implement in a range of ways. I say some of course, as many Asian countries remain nowhere near as wealthy as us or Europe as a whole.

There are also greater gains (Riccardian style) from trade with countries further away - its hugely misleading to just look at the value of goods and services traded rather than the economic benefit of that trade.

I wouldn't call it misleading. There's a pretty tight correlation between value of goods/services and how that translates into wealth that benefits normal people (jobs, wages etc).

Europe has always been our largest trading partner, and it always will be. Tariffs or no tariffs, there's simply very little further afield that's easier or more lucrative compared to what we can find closer to home when everything is factored in.

Again, I point to South Korea, which is one of the top 10 largest economies in the world. Where's all the trade despite an agreement being in place?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I was (I think) six years old when we joined the EU, so all my “conscious” life (ie since I’ve really been aware of much beyond my immediate family/home) we’ve been in the EU. Life has not always been simple, but honestly I can’t complain, I lead a good life, my children have security and a future. Leaving the EU is a risk, a big risk, and I just can’t see what are the benefits are. I worry that things will not be as good for those of us in the U.K. as they were, and I would love to be convinced that things will be better come Friday.

I am a lot older than you. I remember Europe before the EU. I drove through iron curtain countries and saw the effects of the poverty caused by war. When I arrived in London the city still had bomb sites.

I have taken advantage of the freedoms the EU brought. As a freelance photographer I've worked for Volkswagen, Heineken, and many others without the need for work permits. I regret that freelancers in the future will not have the same opportunities.

 

[Paul Norman]

I am a lot older than you. I remember Europe before the EU. I drove through iron curtain countries and saw the effects of the poverty caused by war. When I arrived in London the city still had bomb sites.

I have taken advantage of the freedoms the EU brought. As a freelance photographer I've worked for Volkswagen, Heineken, and many others without the need for work permits. I regret that freelancers in the future will not have the same opportunities.

Yes. I have built a career on cross border businesses. And I intend to continue it, although I have had to relocate to make that possible. But I regard that as worthwhile.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Again, I point to South Korea, which is one of the top 10 largest economies in the world. Where's all the trade despite an agreement being in place?

New Maldon! It has become little Korea

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Visa requirements are generally quite easy to get, and where difficult the reason is often to protect their own citizens jobs

The UK did not get its growth and buildings etc from joining the EU it built them by strong governments both Labour and the conservatives rebuilding from bankruptcy after WW2. well before the EU,

The governments took hard measures to curb the silly powers the unions had, government owned businesses and subsidies Like the Aircraft industry, British Rail, British Steel, Ship building and the Coal Mines forced industry to change, some of us remember the hardships many went through during this process, the end result quite a prosperous country

 

[Ian J]

Lots of fisherpeople have suddenly realised that they've just lost their businesses. They can't sell to the EU anymore due to administrative costs and related import/export issues, their biggest market. They also won't get full access to fishing rights for the next few years, so they cannot grow their UK business. They've been stuffed. They're in no mans land and now have a much smaller market to sell to.

Fishing is tiny in relation to the rest of our trade with the EU and in fact the UK has been a net importer of fish anyway

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Visa requirements are generally quite easy to get, and where difficult the reason is often to protect their own citizens jobs

Just plucking out of thin air. Imagine a film stuntman is over-running on a shoot in Scotland. He gets a call to do a days work in France. He can just make it by taking a direct flight from Edinburgh. Does the job and earns a nice fee. (See the film Day for Night for an example of how easy this was in the EU days)

Now imagine the film company can't use a UK stuntman. There isn't time to get a working visa. They phone a German instead.

 

[MBE2017]

Now imagine the film company can't use a UK stuntman. There isn't time to get a working visa. They phone a German instead.

Works in the reverse way as well? As time progresses things will become accepted, altered, changed or stay the same. The referendum was a simple binary choice, so such conflicts were bound to arise.

That said, several other countries are also seeing anti EU sentiment, so the UK is only unique in taking a referendum and carrying it through. I can see other countries doing the same, the only countries looking and wishing to join the EU tend to be the poorer ones who see years of gains ahead of them like Eire have received.

The net contributors to the EU, such as the Northern EU members might start to look jealously at UK money being spent 100% on their own people, not paying for Southern EU countries to retire mid 50’s at their expense.

Either way, our course is set now, at least for the next 20/30 years IMO.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Imagine if he was conscripted into the Planned EU army if we had stayed in the EU, it may well have happened in a few years time.

You never seem to look at the future where is becomes like the USA as a federal state controlling everything it can by stealth

Why is it you can lose your EU Pension if you worked for them and after you left you went anti EU, is that a democratic way

It's no doubt that the visa system will change and adapt new measures as time goes on to the benefit of all parties, as you well know there is still much to be agreed only the basics have been put in print to meet the deadline of the 1st

 

[alan1302]

Imagine if he was conscripted into the Planned EU army if we had stayed in the EU

There is no planned EU army.

 

[Scalloway]

The myth of a EU army has circulated for years but the official explanation is that the EU would need all is members to agree as it has no locus in individual state's security arrangements. Many EU states are against the idea. Also it would duplicate NATO.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

You have also not had to deal with stupid EU regulation yourselves so will deny that reality too.

You obviously have never dealt with stupid UK regulation. Nothing competes with the UK's stupidity when it comes to paperwork. When I was receiving monthly royalty payments from Germany I had to have a "proof of export" piece of paper. Every month I posted a recorded delivery EMPTY envelope to my agent in Germany and kept the proof of posting. That satisfied the VAT inspector.

Now tell me a single example of EU stupidity to match that.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Just plucking out of thin air. Imagine a film stuntman is over-running on a shoot in Scotland. He gets a call to do a days work in France. He can just make it by taking a direct flight from Edinburgh. Does the job and earns a nice fee. (See the film Day for Night for an example of how easy this was in the EU days)

Now imagine the film company can't use a UK stuntman. There isn't time to get a working visa. They phone a German instead.

I think this is what a lot of people without experience in the relevant fields don't understand.

Leaving the EU, for the most part, doesn't create impermeable barriers. But it takes a situation where EU trade with the UK used to be as easy as trade with France, Germany and Italy, to a situation where trading with the UK becomes notably more expensive, restricted and bureaucratic.

When that happens, there are thousands of situations where the extra friction will turn buyers off. Duties, VAT, carnets, working visas, qualifications, regulatory checks et al - it creates a lot of headaches where many businesses will even pay slightly more to buy from within the EU to avoid all the hassle.

And sadly, it tends to be the smaller players and freelancers that suffer most from this.

Losing freedom of movement in particular is a hammer blow. Not just for UK businesses and people, but for the country as a whole. We already have labour shortages in a range of sectors, and now it's significantly more bureaucratic, expensive and risky for EU nationals to move here and fill those gaps. Just imagine moving your life here with the knowledge that you may be kicked out again if you lose your job or have issues with renewing your visa. Businesses will suffer, not to mention the NHS.

All I see is a long, long list of things that will stunt our growth, wealth and freedoms. And while people mention wishy-washy lists of Brexit benefits, I have yet to see anything concrete, with a realistic chance of happening, that would even come close to counteracting the losses.

 

[gpietersz]

It looks like Angela Merkel is planning an EU army - she said so: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0122/1024688-france-germany-treaty/

There have also been moves towards a common Euroezone budget.

Anyone who still thinks that "ever closer union" means anything other than creating a united states of Europe is bordering on the delusional or inly interested in the short term (athough that is true of remainer arguments in general).

Again, I point to South Korea, which is one of the top 10 largest economies in the world.

A great example. South Korea is not part of a large union, and is a similar size to the UK. How has its economy been doing over the last few decades compared to the EU's?

There's a pretty tight correlation between value of goods/services and how that translates into wealth that benefits normal people (jobs, wages etc).

Yes and no. It depends a lot on what is being traded.

For example, there is a good reason why the UK (and Scotland in particular) exports whisky and imports tea, while Sri Lanka does the opposite. Have you seen the price of Scottish tea? Or tasted Sri Lankan whisky? There is a huge gain to be made from trading with countries that can make or do things much cheaper than you can (or vice-versa). If the UK tried to be self-sufficient in tea it would be a luxury drink.

Most UK trade with the EU is with western European countries countries that have similar economies which make similar goods and provide similar services at similar prices. There are relatively small differences in resources, skills, climate etc. so the difference that trade makes(compared to self sufficiency) is small compared to trade with, for example, China.

 

[gpietersz]

. We already have labour shortages in a range of sectors, and now it's significantly more bureaucratic, expensive and risky for EU nationals to move here and fill those gaps

On the other hand the post-Brexit immigration policies make it a lot easier for people from the whole of the rest of the world to come to the UK, at least of they have skills we need.

 

[gpietersz]

You obviously have never dealt with stupid UK regulation. Nothing competes with the UK's stupidity when it comes to paperwork

I did not say there ws no stupid UK regulation. The choice is between stupid UK regulation only or stupid EU regulation on top of stupid UK regulation.

 

[The Byre]

A great example. South Korea is not part of a large union, and is a similar size to the UK.

Er, yes it is. Several. For example, it has a free trade agreement with the US and with the EU. It is also a member of APEC.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

On the other hand the post-Brexit immigration policies make it a lot easier for people from the whole of the rest of the world to come to the UK, at least of they have skills we need.

We've always had control of our non-EU immigration policies, and the points-based system has always existed. We've simply created one for the EU now as well.

For skilled jobs, it's now much more difficult for the employer and employee, and risky too. If you have issues with your job or your visa renewals, you're at risk of expulsion. Will the best talent still move here when they're in equally high demand elsewhere in the EU and can feel much safer and more stable there? What do we have to do to counteract that? Pay even higher salaries and harm British businesses even further?

What about competing against the benefits of residency in the EU? If talent comes here, it's stuck here (unless it gets kicked out, of course, which will be a near-constant possibility). Meanwhile, those in the EU have the opportunity to live and work in 27 other countries if they wish to do so. How do we counteract that? Even more money?

All this emphasis on "skills" isn't necessarily a good thing either. Even if jobs don't need a PhD, and even if they don't pay so well, they can still be important for British businesses. Some of them are also jobs that a lot of Brits simply don't want to do.

At the stroke of midnight, recruiting needed talent and experience from abroad will become significantly more expensive and bureaucratic for British businesses, and it will become significantly less appealing for that talent to move here.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I did not say there ws no stupid UK regulation. The choice is between stupid UK regulation only or stupid EU regulation on top of stupid UK regulation.

I've never come across any stupid EU regulations or red tape. Quite the opposite.

 

[The Byre]

Another point of order - at the stroke of eleven. Even the time was dictated by Brussels.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

That said, several other countries are also seeing anti EU sentiment, so the UK is only unique in taking a referendum and carrying it through. I can see other countries doing the same, the only countries looking and wishing to join the EU tend to be the poorer ones who see years of gains ahead of them like Eire have received.

I actually think Brexit will solidify pro-EU sentiment quite strongly for the following reasons:

1). The UK clearly hasn't been able to have its cake and eat it. There's a long list of downsides and sacrifices already emerging, with many of those being relatable to normal people who would vote in such referendums.

2). Even the UK government's own analysis states that Brexit will stunt GDP growth, so it's unlikely we'll be able to magic up some figures that show the EU how much better off we are.

3). Some of the supposed benefits of Brexit that hard-line Brexiteers want are difficult political sells. Lower taxes and regulations for large corporations while ordinary people find it hard to get by? Good luck selling that as a plus point for leaving the EU.

4). There are psychological effects. The UK has been acting like an external threat that has increased unity amongst the EU member states. This will only get worse if we cosy up to the likes of the US, as mainland Europe has a consistently worse opinion of the US compared to what we think of them.

Also, anecdotally speaking, I know people living in the EU who had quite strong anti-EU sentiment, and after seeing everything that's gone on with the UK, with all the downsides brought into reality, their tune has completely changed. They simply don't want to go through what the UK has.

Now if the UK somehow becomes the land of milk and honey, then perhaps sentiment will change back, but I have yet to be informed how this will happen.

 

[gpietersz]

Er, yes it is. Several. For example, it has a free trade agreement with the US and with the EU. It is also a member of APEC.

None of those are unions like the EU. Does APEC have a parliament or its own courts.

The UK has a free trade agreement with the EU, and with Japan, and many other countries. It is a member of the Council of Europe. It is a member of many other international bodies.

Some of them are also jobs that a lot of Brits simply don't want to do.

That Brits do not want to do for low wages. Unskilled EU immigration is a way of keeping the wages of the lowest paid down.

We've always had control of our non-EU immigration policies, and the points-based system has always existed. We've simply created one for the EU now as well.

We now have a far more liberal immigration policy for non-EU immigrants than we did. We never showed the slightest sign of moving towards this type of policy while in the EU - and it would have made no sense to have done so.

 

[Mr D]

Perhaps at the next referendum on the subject - in a few dozen years - they'll be able to vote as they want. Just like last time.

 

[Mr D]

None of those are unions.

The UK has a free trade agreement with the EU, and with Japan, and many other countries.




That Brits do not want to do for low wages. Unskilled EU immigration is a way of keeping the wages of the lowest paid down.




We now have a far more liberal immigration policy for non-EU immigrants than we did.

Could always offer high wages for those jobs.

Of course that drives up the price of the goods. If there are any buyers for it.
Tesco says they will only pay £50 for that and you need them to pay £130 in order to break even - then what?

 

[gpietersz]

. Some of the supposed benefits of Brexit that hard-line Brexiteers want are difficult political sells. Lower taxes and regulations for large corporations while ordinary people find it hard to get by?

You have completely missed the point. We could just as well have higher taxes and tighter regulation. Brexiters disagree on what policies we should follow (how much policy do you think Nigel Farage and the late Tony Benn agreed on?), but agree that the decision should be made in the EU.

 

[gpietersz]

Of course that drives up the price of the goods.

You could say the same for having a minimum wage - and dire predictions were made about the effect that would have on inflation.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Brexit: Gibraltar gets UK-Spain deal to keep open border
#see
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55497084

Things and agreements change hour by hour

 

[Mr D]

You could say the same for having a minimum wage - and dire predictions were made about the effect that would have on inflation.

Yes I saw how that affected things.
Including cutting staff numbers so the wage bill remains the same. And cutting staff hours so they take home the same pay.

My dad worked for a hotel chain the year minimum wage came in. They lost a considerable number of staff - and cutting staff further was common some years.
I worked in hospitality industry myself in the first few years.
And seen it since elsehwhere.

You know yourself when business bills go up you reduce costs or at some point pass the increased costs on to customers.
No one else will complain if you take less profits from rising costs but you may be annoyed.

 

[Mr D]

Things and agreements change hour by hour

Pretty much, yes.

 

[Newchodge]

On the other hand the post-Brexit immigration policies make it a lot easier for people from the whole of the rest of the world to come to the UK, at least of they have skills we need.

But we DON'T WANT THEM. They don't have white skins. They are not welcome in England except as servants. Why doe no-one understand this fundamental issue?

 

[The Byre]

So that's Gibraltar joining Northern Ireland as part of the EU and the Schengen area.

The word 'Toldcha!' springs to mind!

 

[KM-Tiger]

I've never come across any stupid EU regulations

Visited any websites lately?

 

[Mr D]

But we DON'T WANT THEM. They don't have white skins. They are not welcome in England except as servants. Why doe no-one understand this fundamental issue?

Many of them have skins as white as the British people.

 

[MBE2017]

But we DON'T WANT THEM. They don't have white skins. They are not welcome in England except as servants. Why doe no-one understand this fundamental issue?

A remoaner myth, and an awful lie, which goes a long way to explaining why Brexit won the vote and remoaners did not. Instead of listening to people’s concerns, remoaners make up what they believe instead, which probably says a lot more about them than Brexiteers.

Every person I know simply wanted an controlled immigration policy to suit the countries requirements. How many roadside car washers does the UK truly require? So if Doctors, nurses, rocket scientists etc are required, recruit them if necessary, or better still put training in place for the unemployed to fill vacancies.

To allow uncontrolled immigration, under all political parties, was always going to cause friction in the long run, and put pressure on infrastructure and services. Whilst the UK Gov had some tools at its disposal, none used them. By shutting down honest conversations by throwing racist accusations around the problem does not get resolved, and largely led to Brexit in part IMHO.

Newchodge is not the only one to throw this accusation around, remember Gordon Brown accusing a woman of being a vile racist bigot, to later visit her and pretend he never meant it. After all, he blamed his handlers for even letting her ask him the question on immigration. Most importantly he wanted some votes, so truth soon went out of the window.

So for folk to be concerned about school place shortages, low salaries due to over supply of Labour, lack of housing available to them, Doctor shortages due to huge pressures etc, does not make them racists Newchodge, it makes them concerned for their families well being and future prospects.

Of course, if you live in a well off cosy bubble, you can ignore such things, most cannot.

 

[Mr D]

A remoaner myth, and an awful lie, which goes a long way to explaining why Brexit won the vote and remoaners did not. Instead of listening to people’s concerns, remoaners make up what they believe instead, which probably says a lot more about them than Brexiteers.

Every person I know simply wanted an controlled immigration policy to suit the countries requirements. How many roadside car washers does the UK truly require? So if Doctors, nurses, rocket scientists etc are required, recruit them if necessary, or better still put training in place for the unemployed to fill vacancies.

To allow uncontrolled immigration, under all political parties, was always going to cause friction in the long run, and put pressure on infrastructure and services. Whilst the UK Gov had some tools at its disposal, none used them. By shutting down honest conversations by throwing racist accusations around the problem does not get resolved, and largely led to Brexit in part IMHO.

Newchodge is not the only one to throw this accusation around, remember Gordon Brown accusing a woman of being a vile racist bigot, to later visit her and pretend he never meant it. After all, he blamed his handlers for even letting her ask him the question on immigration. Most importantly he wanted some votes, so truth soon went out of the window.

So for folk to be concerned about school place shortages, low salaries due to over supply of Labour, lack of housing available to them, Doctor shortages due to huge pressures etc, does not make them racists Newchodge, it makes them concerned for their families well being and future prospects.

Of course, if you live in a well off cosy bubble, you can ignore such things, most cannot.

We have had control of immigration for non EU people for many years. What we have not had is political will. In any party in power.
Doctor shortages? As I recall we recruited doctors and nurses from overseas in the past.
Part of that immigration.

 

[alan1302]

It looks like Angela Merkel is planning an EU army - she said so: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0122/1024688-france-germany-treaty/

Those two leaders are members of the EU and they may want to have an EU army but it's not official news of the EU wanting an army just those two.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

There has been lots of talk over the last few days of the loss of freedom for freelancers to work in the EU

The opposite side is that all these unregistered craftsmen from the EU, who pay no tax and work for low pay will slowly run down. giving the UK freelance craftsmen who do pay tax and VAT a better chance of earning a decent days work. in truth there may be far more of them who have been adversely effected by these street corner pay no tax people

 

[Chris Ashdown]

But we DON'T WANT THEM. They don't have white skins. They are not welcome in England except as servants. Why doe no-one understand this fundamental issue?

You are speaking i presume for yourself and not the UK as a whole, who I doubt accept your view of them

 

[Mr D]

Another point of order - at the stroke of eleven. Even the time was dictated by Brussels.

And 11 here is midnight where?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

It looks like Angela Merkel is planning an EU army - she said so: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0122/1024688-france-germany-treaty/

Talk about misreading a news story. This is a hoped for cooperation agreement considerably less than the one we have with the USA. No one suggests that because we have US nuclear weapons on our soil that UK civilians will be forced to join the US army as conscripts.