Brexit negotiations

Well said - I now understand what modern day sovereignty looks like:)

There was no Brexit. That balls-up was not the Brexit that UK voters voted for.
  • The UK has handed Northern Ireland to the EU and thereby made union with the RoI inevitable.
  • The UK has created a border between Northern Ireland and Rest-UK.
  • The EU fishing fleet gets to keep access to UK waters.
  • The UK must continue to pay for access to free trade with the EU.
  • The UK must continue to pay into the EU defense fund.
  • UK services will lose their automatic right of access to the EU.
  • UK qualifications are no longer recognised in the EU.
  • UK manufacturers must continue to comply with EU rules.
  • Migrant labour will continue to have to come into the UK (for health care and farming!)

We kept hearing the slogan "No deal is better than a bad deal!"

Well, if you are a Brexiteer, that was a very bad deal. All J & Co have achieved is to prevent those with intelligence and initiative from working abroad. i.e. no Brexit.

It will lead to the unification of Ireland (which I favour, but should have been a subject for democratic debate) and Scottish independence (which I also favour). Exactly how Englandshire is supposed to remain fiercely sovereign with two EU counties using the Euro right on its borders remains a clouded mystery!

I shall watch developments with much amusement!
 
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gpietersz

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    The UK has handed Northern Ireland to the EU and thereby made union with the RoI inevitable.

    Stormont gets a chance to revoke current arrangements every four years. Union with RoI would require a vote. It probably makes a vote for union with RoI more likely but things have been going that way for years, and even you do not think its a bad thing.

    The EU fishing fleet gets to keep access to UK waters

    Reduced access and subject to review every few years.


    • The UK must continue to pay for access to free trade with the EU.
    • The UK must continue to pay into the EU defense fund.
    • UK manufacturers must continue to comply with EU rules.

    I cannot find any of these. Can you tell me what the relevant parts of the agreement are?

    As far as the last goes the agreement seems to say just the opposite - and even most remainers seem to agree with that (as they are complaining about needing separate approval for Uk and EU standards).

    UK qualifications are no longer recognised in the EU.

    And vice versa. It also only matters for people doing regulated jobs. Its a good thing that people from 27 countries with wildly varying standards cannot work in such jobs the UK without their competence being tested.

    Migrant labour will continue to have to come into the UK (for health care and farming!)

    To the extent the UK decides to allow it, and from where the UK decides to allow it.

    It will lead to the unification of Ireland (which I favour, but should have been a subject for democratic debate) and Scottish independence

    It makes Scottish independence a lot harder. Having to adopt the Euro alone is going to put a lot of Scottish voters off the idea. What about customs checks at the border, loss of freedom of movement with in the UK, access to UK funds and so on? It will be far more of an economic shock than the UK leaving the EU.

    Scotland wOULD have to simultaneously negotiate deals with both the UK and the EU, both far larger (the Scottish economy is less important to the UK, than the UK's economy is to the EU), that satisfy both.
     
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    They have effectively been abandoned.
    Along with much of the creative industries.

    It seems as though the unadventurous, stay-at-home, stick in the muds are pleased with Bojo the Clown's brexit deal.

    They don't care that we are to drop out of the Erasmus scheme which helped 54,000 UK students gain valuable educational opportunities abroad. Instead our students are to have a different scheme for 35,000 students supported to the tune of less than £3,000 each.

    For the past 40 years the UK's creative industry has truly been a world beater. Many of those creators, from musicians to costume designers, actors to artists, photographers, stylists, models, set builders, roadies, sound engineers, illustrators and many, many more are predominately freelance sole operators. They have been a very useful addition to the UK's export earnings especially in the EU. Thrown under a bus with £350 million painted on the side.
     
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    For the past 40 years the UK's creative industry has truly been a world beater. Many of those creators, from musicians to costume designers, actors to artists, photographers, stylists, models, set builders, roadies, sound engineers, illustrators and many, many more are predominately freelance sole operators. They have been a very useful addition to the UK's export earnings especially in the EU. Thrown under a bus with £350 million painted on the side.
    THIS!

    Those industries account for c.a. 10% of the UK economy and are hugely capital intensive. A commercially viable theatre, recording, TV, or film studio costs real money - you don't get any change out of a healthy seven-figure sum. And I have yet to see a film being made that had fewer than 50 people (not counting actors, etc.) working on it and most run into hundreds.

    And most of the output of those various industries is exported.
     
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    gpietersz

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    They don't care that we are to drop out of the Erasmus scheme which helped 54,000 UK students gain valuable educational opportunities abroad. Instead our students are to have a different scheme for 35,000 students supported to the tune of less than £3,000 each.

    So fewer students, roughly the same amount each, and a far wider choice of countries. Better suited to a world no longer dominated by Europe.


    And most of the output of those various industries is exported.

    As it no doubt will continue to be
     
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    Deleted member 59730

    So fewer students, roughly the same amount each, and a far wider choice of countries. Better suited to a world no longer dominated by Europe.
    Far less money each. Bojo said it was to save money so nothing like the same.

    Go and stand on the cliffs just north of Dover on a sunny day and then tell me that the continent clearly in sight is no longer going to dominate us.
     
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    gpietersz

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    Far less money each. Bojo said it was to save money so nothing like the same.

    When did he say the new scheme was cheaper?

    It looks like the Erasmus scheme has only 2,500 EUR per student ( https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/era...-proposal-next-erasmus-programme-2021-2027_en ) so if your £3k each is correct its UK replacement a lot more generous.


    Go and stand on the cliffs just north of Dover on a sunny day and then tell me that the continent clearly in sight is no longer going to dominate us.

    Get rid of your 19th century imperial delusions of grandeur. Europe has a shrinking share of the world's economy, and a shrinking share of the world's population, and even a shrinking share of the UK's overseas trade even before Brexit.


    And now please explain how abandoning Gibraltar to a country that was a fascist dictatorship until very recently is of benefit to the UK!

    Is Spain a fascist dictatorship now? Its jingoistic claptrap to hold their past against them.

    How is Gibraltar abandoned? Its still UK territory, the Spanish have promised to let Gibraltarian workers commute to Spain: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...ar-workers-to-keep-free-movement-after-brexit regarldess of trade agreements.

    Gibraltar is tiny - its population is half that of Wimbledon. The benefits to 67m people in the UK easily outweigh the problems caused to so few.
     
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    MBE2017

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    Also, we were told the following by the government themselves:

    "We hold all the cards" Gove 2016
    "Getting out of the EU is quick and easy" Redwood 2016
    "The free trade agreement with the EU will be the easiest in history" Fox 2017
    "A free trade and customs agreement should be completed by March" Davis 2017

    Not arguing this is a poor deal which suits no-one, but regarding the above, don’t forget, one main reason the deal has turned out poor is due to remoaner collusion with the EU, who until the last year or so thought Brexit would be cancelled or called off indefinitely.

    On top of that Mays original plan was BRINO, so a lot of the blame lies with the non acceptance of the referendum by a large portion of the establishment, media etc. The UK is saddled with this half way house agreement no-one is happy with. I think if the last negotiatior had been in control from day one things could have turned out differently, but the UK lost any decent deal the day they let a Barnier set the agenda, the divorce bill first, trade agreement later. It should have been all done together.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    Get rid of your 19th century imperial delusions of grandeur. Europe has a shrinking share of the world's economy, and a shrinking share of the world's population, and even a shrinking share of the UK's overseas trade even before Brexit.

    It's still $13 trillion vs $2.6 trillion. Just one member of the EU alone (Germany) out of 27 members is 42% larger than us.

    And with a much wider range of economies, there's something for everyone in terms of international trade. Many non-EU countries will export products that the UK doesn't have a large market for, but it will exist somewhere in the EU due to the significantly larger range of cultures and income levels.

    EU countries will prioritise fellow members of the single market over us. Non-EU countries will prioritise the EU single market over us. If a country or business is given an ultimatum, they'll choose the EU over us 98% of the time. It's basic economic sense, much in the same way we'd always prioritise the US over India or Japan.

    It's not that we're weak. It's just that the EU is so much larger and more lucrative when it's 27 countries combined. There's a good reason why they banded together and why trade blocs are becoming more common. It's the only realistic way for smaller countries to have any kind of leverage over behemoths such as China and the US.

    As for the future EU/UK trading relationship, we'll always be heavily tethered to them in some form or another. Geography is hugely important. The further away you go, the more time zones become an issue for services, and logistics become an issue for goods. There's a reason why we've had a trade deal with South Korea for over 5 years now (via the EU) but it still only accounts for 1.5% of our export trade.
     
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    Wise words. That's the problem. So no matter what the deal involves, to the diehards it's a worse outcome than what they would have liked.

    Both the EU and the UK made concessions - that's how frigging deals work. And the EU made huge concessions, concessions that nobody thought they would make. That's a testament to our negotiating team. We should celebrate this instead of whining.

    But the diehards won't acknowledge that. Instead they will focus on the concessions made by the UK. They need to find some way of justifying the position they maintained all along.

    We got a lot more than any of the Remainers thought that we'd get. That riles them because it's contrary to what they've been claiming.

    Will it all be rosy and smooth sailing? Of course not. Not for us, not for the EU. It will take a while to unravel many of the intricate involvements. But the UK has shown that it is possible to leave the club and that the club, devious as it was in building disincentives to any member leaving, will hopefully learn lessons from this.

    If Britain thrives outside the EU, let me predict that some Remainers will still find stuff to b*tch about. Anything outside of full membership is anathema to them so they will continue to be unhappy about outcomes, whatever those outcomes are.

    The rest of us will try to make sense of the new world, navigate it, explore opportunities.

    Let me say that for those EU citizens who want to gain British residency, there's the route available of buying a UK business. :) Go talk to a good immigration lawyer.

    Well, if you want to short UK sausage meat, there's an opportunity there for you. We're about to have a surplus.
     
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    Chris Ashdown

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    I wonder how the EU will evolve over the coming years, just a week or so ago. two of the new members held the EU to ransom to get their way; and won the consesions they wanted.

    Over the last 20 years or more, the EU has basically been run by Germany and France, now with all the newer members flexing their vote as power, How long will the western EU members accept paying for something, they are slowly loosing control of

    What I have never understood is the lack of understanding of the word sovereignty, and that so many people do not appreciate what it means to control your own destiny , yes it can be David and Goliath sometimes and consesions have to be made, but far better that than total control by a bad mixture of other countries some of which are only slightly more than third world countries

    You now vote for your government who control's your destiny, and not controlled by unelected commissioners who the EMP's play lip service to
     
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    gpietersz

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    as one of those 67m people I’m still waiting for someone to tell me just one of these tangible benefits

    I wish we had had years of public debate over this where the cases for and against was put.

    If you live in an echo chamber where you never hear one side of the argument its your fault. Luckily the majority of people were more open minded.

    It's not that we're weak. It's just that the EU is so much larger and more lucrative when it's 27 countries combined.

    Funny how countries like Singapore manage. Most of Asia seems to have done better than Europe without any EU like trading blocs (things like ASEAN are not even vaguely comparable - its more like the deal we have with the EU now).

    The EU is also more cumbersome and often prevent trade because its protectionist.

    There are also greater gains (Riccardian style) from trade with countries further away - its hugely misleading to just look at the value of goods and services traded rather than the economic benefit of that trade.
     
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    Jeff FV

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    I wish we had had years of public debate over this where the cases for and against was put.

    If you live in an echo chamber where you never hear one side of the argument its your fault. Luckily the majority of people were more open minded.


    .

    So here’s your chance to burst my echo chamber, and give me one tangible benefit of leaving the EU.

    I have been asking for years for someone on the other side of the argument to answer this question. I have been listening to all the arguments as I know that, shelfishly, I would be a lot happier if I could see the positives of leaving the EU.

    I have the utmost respect for @KM-Tiger as, whilst we disagree on whether leaving the EU is a good thing or not, he has always engaged in sensible, reasoned argument, directly answering my direct questions.

    He (KM tiger) has been consistent, saying it is fundamentally about sovereignty, which I respect. He hasn’t tried to sell me vague tangible benefits.

    But you @gpietersz spoke a few posts ago of the benefits to “67 million people in U.K. ... “. Both the @The Byre and I asked you what those benefits are.

    We are still waiting, one tangible benefit will do ...
     
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    gpietersz

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    We are still waiting, one tangible benefit will do ...

    I assume that by tangible you mean economic? I mean things like self determination do not apply to the UK for remaineres (although we have a whole group of remainers and a political party whose entire case is that it matters for Scotland but not the UK - very consistent).

    I also assume you will just deny the risks of the EU project of creating a new nation despite its failures and despite the lessons of history on how hard nation building is. You will also similarly just deny the long term advantages of being outside the EU. You have also not had to deal with stupid EU regulation yourselves so will deny that reality too.

    So just one short term economic gain? Lower import duties, and therefore lower prices, on a huge range of foodstuffs from non-EU countries, from rice to oranges.
     
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    Deleted member 59730

    You have also not had to deal with stupid EU regulation yourselves so will deny that reality too.
    I've had to deal with a huge amount of UK regulation. In my business being in the EU removed an enormous amount regulation. I was as free to do business in Italy and Spain as I was in the UK.

    Brexit has blown a hole in those opportunities for the entire creative sector.
     
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    I've had to deal with a huge amount of UK regulation. In my business being in the EU removed an enormous amount regulation. I was as free to do business in Italy and Spain as I was in the UK.

    Brexit has blown a hole in those opportunities for the entire creative sector.

    ?????? being a bit dramatic.
     
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    I celebrated my 70th birthday yesterday by reading the deal (I know, don't tell me! Get a life!)

    And the more I read, the worse it gets. I strongly suggest that every Brexiteer sits down and actually reads this deal - well, everybody should read it before spouting an opinion.

    Free market access is a myth.

    If a U.K.-based company wants to serve customers in an EU member country by setting up an office there, for example, its market access and regulation will vary from country to country and therefore, must be determined country by country and industry by industry.

    For example, anyone who doesn’t speak German or Spanish will need a legally verified translation for financial services or access to criminal records in those languages.

    Similar to Gibraltar, financial services are left out in the cold of "To be dealt with." - an agreement to try to reach a memorandum of understanding by March 2021 is all that was signed - a golden opportunity for the EU to tie financial services to Euro-only transactions. Financial services are a rare area where the U.K. has a clear competitive advantage over the EU. Meanwhile, the EU is seeking to onshore far more of its financial services activity, particularly in terms of bond trading and with contracts tied to the Euro.

    Rules and an overseeing body governing state aid and fair competition have NOT been agreed upon or established. This is another 'To be dealt with!" area.

    Medical products and procedures - the U.K. and EU will “endeavour to consult one another, as permitted by their respective law, on proposals to introduce significant changes to technical regulations or inspection procedures. Both parties agree to endeavor to cooperate with a view to strengthening, developing and promoting the adoption and implementation of internationally agreed scientific or technical guidelines.

    In plain English - another 'To be dealt with!" That is yet another can down the road. Four F'ing years that Billy Bunter had to come up with something substantial and the best he and his hapless cronies could bring back from Brussels was "agree to endeavor to cooperate with a view to". Imagine finding open-ended and unenforceable waffle like that in your next contract with a supplier!

    Specified occupations have visa-free travel for 90 days (six months for EU citizens working in the UK). But that does NOT include sports professionals, artists, actors and musicians. That means that a UK actor promoting a film cannot appear on French or German talk shows and Adel (and thousands of smaller acts) will be banned from performing in Europe.

    Temporary "passports for goods" (carnets) are back.

    That is what I have found so far - there is bound to be more!

    I am still waiting for a list of all those tangible advantages that this one-sided deal will bring.
     
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    KM-Tiger

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    He (KM tiger) has been consistent, saying it is fundamentally about sovereignty, which I respect. He hasn’t tried to sell me vague tangible benefits.
    Here's one that *might* come into play in 2021.

    Our govt is now free to make targeted VAT cuts if it so wishes. It is being suggested that a way of getting the pub/hospitality industry back on its feet post pandemic would be VAT cuts.

    No idea whether that will happen but illustrates a new tool in the govt toolbox. There will be others.
     
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    Hospitali
    Here's one that *might* come into play in 2021.

    Our govt is now free to make targeted VAT cuts if it so wishes. It is being suggested that a way of getting the pub/hospitality industry back on its feet post pandemic would be VAT cuts.

    No idea whether that will happen but illustrates a new tool in the govt toolbox. There will be others.
    There were hospitality cuts to 5% earlier this year (I am not sure on the precise timing). The difference now is that it could be cut to 0%.
     
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    thetiger2015

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    What I have never understood is the lack of understanding of the word sovereignty, and that so many people do not appreciate what it means to control your own destiny , yes it can be David and Goliath sometimes and consesions have to be made, but far better that than total control by a bad mixture of other countries some of which are only slightly more than third world countries

    Did France not show it is a sovereign state when it stopped boats crossing the channel a few days ago?

    What is your definition of sovereignty? It's a very old word. I don't think many people under the age of 30 have ever used it and it seems to be linked to the old idea of 'Empire' and 'Rulers'.

    Do you have sovereignty from NATO allies? If a NATO member is attacked, all members are expected to react, even if it's not our problem. It's part of a pact agreement and I wonder if sovereignty is involved in that or do we drop the sovereignty bit when we talk about NATO?
     
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    thetiger2015

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    Hospitali

    There were hospitality cuts to 5% earlier this year (I am not sure on the precise timing). The difference now is that it could be cut to 0%.

    The danger with that is the government making sod all money from hospitality, therefore not providing any financial support, other than a tax cut. They'd say hospitality contributes nothing to VAT revenue and therefore is ineligible for government grants/loans in the future.
     
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    Deleted member 59730

    Do you have sovereignty from NATO allies? If a NATO member is attacked, all members are expected to react, even if it's not our problem. It's part of a pact agreement and I wonder if sovereignty is involved in that or do we drop the sovereignty bit when we talk about NATO?
    You will notice that none of the proclaimers of sovereignty replied when I mentioned US nuclear missiles on UK soil.
     
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    thetiger2015

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    And the more I read, the worse it gets. I strongly suggest that every Brexiteer sits down and actually reads this deal - well, everybody should read it before spouting an opinion.

    MPs are expected to vote on this and they haven't had an opportunity to go through it all.

    This happened previously, when MPs were given a weekend to deliberate over hundreds of pages of important documents.

    Labour has to support it. If they don't Starmer is accused of throwing away a deal. If they support it, they're supporting a really rubbish deal that doesn't actually guarantee anything in many cases.

    Lots of fisherpeople have suddenly realised that they've just lost their businesses. They can't sell to the EU anymore due to administrative costs and related import/export issues, their biggest market. They also won't get full access to fishing rights for the next few years, so they cannot grow their UK business. They've been stuffed. They're in no mans land and now have a much smaller market to sell to.
     
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    Mr D

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    MPs are expected to vote on this and they haven't had an opportunity to go through it all.

    This happened previously, when MPs were given a weekend to deliberate over hundreds of pages of important documents.

    Labour has to support it. If they don't Starmer is accused of throwing away a deal. If they support it, they're supporting a really rubbish deal that doesn't actually guarantee anything in many cases.

    Lots of fisherpeople have suddenly realised that they've just lost their businesses. They can't sell to the EU anymore due to administrative costs and related import/export issues, their biggest market. They also won't get full access to fishing rights for the next few years, so they cannot grow their UK business. They've been stuffed. They're in no mans land and now have a much smaller market to sell to.

    Sorry what stopped MPs reading it all?

    Its 1200 odd pages, its been available 4 days to the public never mind MPs.

    The MPs had a choice of supporting it. Or of going with the WTO deal.
    Is any trade deal better than no trade deal? That's what effectively it comes down to.

    The fisherpeople would perhaps be happier with no deal - able to fish and able to sell their products in UK. Selling to EU with tariffs - so affecting demand?
    Under WTO they'd have less admin costs and less related import / export issues?

    The issue isn't EU membership and access to market versus the trade deal, the issue is no preferential access at all versus the trade deal.
    Which one messes things up least for the fisherpeople?
     
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    Mr D

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    Did France not show it is a sovereign state when it stopped boats crossing the channel a few days ago?

    What is your definition of sovereignty? It's a very old word. I don't think many people under the age of 30 have ever used it and it seems to be linked to the old idea of 'Empire' and 'Rulers'.

    Do you have sovereignty from NATO allies? If a NATO member is attacked, all members are expected to react, even if it's not our problem. It's part of a pact agreement and I wonder if sovereignty is involved in that or do we drop the sovereignty bit when we talk about NATO?

    Yes, reacting when an ally is attacked - worked so well with WW1.
    NATO alliance is a way of standardising exercises and procedures. In the event of the Warsaw Pact attacking they'd face off against units from several countries. Someone else attacks then they have a field day.
    It was a nice ideal, bit of a strange alliance these days.
     
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    I've had to deal with a huge amount of UK regulation. In my business being in the EU removed an enormous amount regulation. I was as free to do business in Italy and Spain as I was in the UK.

    Brexit has blown a hole in those opportunities for the entire creative sector.
    Here is the petition for freedom to work in the creative industries - https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/563294/
     
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    Jeff FV

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    I am not being facetious or trying to spark an argument, I am just trying to understand, so here are some answers/questions to your reply.

    I’ve chopped it up a bit to try and help with the Q&As, and I would genuinely welcome any clarity/answers you (or anyone) can give.

    Brexit is a reality, I want to come to positive terms with it, but am struggling, so please help me out.


    I assume that by tangible you mean economic? I mean things like self determination do not apply to the UK for remaineres (although we have a whole group of remainers and a political party whose entire case is that it matters for Scotland but not the UK - very consistent)..

    I’ve never felt that we haven’t had self-determination, we still made most of our own laws (and influenced those EU laws we had to abide by). I have always felt simultaneously English, British and European. I think most Germans see themselves as both German and EU citizens etc.

    .
    I also assume you will just deny the risks of the EU project of creating a new nation despite its failures and despite the lessons of history on how hard nation building is..

    Not sure I understand this? Do you mean the EU is trying to create an EU nation? If so, I think this is not going to happen (dare I say it, Project Fear?!) As mentioned above, a Frenchman will always be proudly French, a Señorita from Seville, Spanish etc.

    Or do you mean creating/supporting new nations such as, say, the Baltic states, which didn’t exist as nations for much of the 20th century?

    .
    You will also similarly just deny the long term advantages of being outside the EU. .

    I don’t know what the long term advantages are of being outside the EU. I would honestly love someone to tell me what they will be.

    .
    You have also not had to deal with stupid EU regulation yourselves so will deny that reality too.
    .

    No I haven’t, but please tell what these troublesome regulations are that we will be free of. I would certainly class this as a tangible benefit.
    .[/QUOTE]

    .
    So just one short term economic gain? Lower import duties, and therefore lower prices, on a huge range of foodstuffs from non-EU countries, from rice to oranges.

    If/when this happens - when my weekly shopping trolley is cheaper than it is now (with the same, or expanded, range of foodstuffs I currently enjoy, delivered to my plate with the same hygiene and safety regulations ) I will be delighted, concede that Brexit has (at least in part) been a success and tip my hat to the Bexiteers. (I would offer to eat my hat if this comes to pass, but I will be too busy chowing down on cheap, nutritious and delicious food from all corners of the globe!)

    For me, the bottom line is this:

    I was (I think) six years old when we joined the EU, so all my “conscious” life (ie since I’ve really been aware of much beyond my immediate family/home) we’ve been in the EU. Life has not always been simple, but honestly I can’t complain, I lead a good life, my children have security and a future. Leaving the EU is a risk, a big risk, and I just can’t see what are the benefits are. I worry that things will not be as good for those of us in the U.K. as they were, and I would love to be convinced that things will be better come Friday.
     
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