Brexit negotiations

[NickGrogan]

If ain't the daftest and most misinformed statement of the age!

The German music industry is roughly (inc. live music) double the size of the UK music industry.

At the budget end of the film industry, things are fairly national, but the large 'blockbuster' movie of today is nearly always international. Star Wars - filmed in the UK and elsewhere, Bladerunner 2049 - filmed in Hungary with Canadian and UK/US crew. War of the Planet of the Apes - filmed in Canada with New Zealand CGI. I can't think of a single major movie that was not international to some extent.

The UK film production scene is largish but is light-years away from the size and scope of China, India and the US and still somewhat smaller (by numbers of people employed) than S.Korea, Japan, France and Nigeria.

Except that we are talking about international trade, imports and exports.

The German music industry in Germany and German-speaking countries is big, the French in France and so on.

Look at the top 20 artists worldwide.

1 Drake - USA
2 BTS - S Korea
3 Ed Sheeran - UK
4 Post Malone - USA
5 Eminem - USA
6 Queen - UK
7 Imagine Dragons - USA
8 Ariana Grande - USA
9 Lady Gaga - USA
10 Bruno Mars - USA

Where are the French, Germans?

Star Wars / James Bond / etc - UK and others, not France and others. Can you name a major international film that was made mainly in Germany, that wasn't set in Germany?

I am comparing international trade values with Europe. USA, China, India are far bigger, but not part of the conversation.

HELENE FISCHER is Germany's top-selling artist (that I could find in 2 minutes of looking)

https://www.musicbusinessworldwide....album-in-germany-for-fifth-time-in-six-years/

Her sales are 15 million units.

Ed Sheeran has sold 150 million units.

 

[thetiger2015]

Except that we are talking about international trade, imports and exports.

The German music industry in Germany and German-speaking countries is big, the French in France and so on.

Look at the top 20 artists worldwide.

1 Drake - USA
2 BTS - S Korea
3 Ed Sheeran - UK
4 Post Malone - USA
5 Eminem - USA
6 Queen - UK
7 Imagine Dragons - USA
8 Ariana Grande - USA
9 Lady Gaga - USA
10 Bruno Mars - USA

Where are the French, Germans?

Star Wars / James Bond / etc - UK and others, not France and others. Can you name a major international film that was made mainly in Germany, that wasn't set in Germany?
.

Das Boot doesn’t count does it?

The artists you mention are irrelevant to your point though. Ed Sheeran and the rest work for various record labels across the USA, UK and Europe. Those same record labels will have EU variants of their main group and have acquired smaller independent labels from France/Germany over the years.

it’s the same with the film industry. You cannot say the Bond franchise is British, as Columbia and Goldwyn (USA) are involved in production and raising funds for various bits. The U.K. film industry also relies on EU and international investment

Equally, you could say the British film industry has done well from being in the EU, so why would Brexit benefit us? We might lose investment from EU based backers because they’ll put their funding in to German and French films if we make it difficult to invest in ours.

 

[The Byre]

I don't where that list is supposed to come from but 2018 figures have three UK acts in the top ten money earners - Ed Sheeran (5) Roger Waters (9) and Coldplay (10). Your 'facts' are about as bogus as that UK film industry grossing $10bn - try under $2bn!

The number one touring act this 2019-20 season will be Rammstein (every one of their huge stadium gigs worldwide inc. UK, US is sold out completely right through to end of 2020) - and remember that nearly all the earnings for any music come from performance and not downloads or streaming. Friends of mine are having to travel to Norway just to see them - at £145 a ticket!

And all this silly talk about software and film and music revenues is total BLX. How about cars? Don't tell me - you drive a Britsih car! Right? What is it - a Sunbeam, a Riley, or perhaps an Armstrong-Siddley?

But then of course one spends so much more on Blu-Ray disks of all_british productions and streaming Tom Jones remixes than one would spend on a car!

Friday I am off to see the premiere of 1917 - all-British, well, except the money of course! And the first thing any movie-maker does on achieving success is to move to LA and apply for US citizenship!

 

[NickGrogan]

Source

https://www.ifpi.org/bestsellers-and-global-artist.php - IFPI – representing the recording industry worldwide

Helen Fischer already has a link.

What's your source?

The number one touring act this 2019-20 season will be Rammstein (every one of their huge stadium gigs worldwide inc. UK, US is sold out completely right through to end of 2020)

Box office $64m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_Stadium_Tour)

To put that in perspective, there are the biggest tours of the 2010s

Rank Inflation Artist Tour name Year(s)
(adjusted 2020 gross)
1 $736,700,000 Ed Sheeran ÷ Tour 2017–19
2 $573,526,888 Guns N' Roses Not in This Lifetime... Tour 2016–19
3 $557,191,864 Coldplay A Head Full of Dreams Tour 2016–17
4 $503,427,256 Roger Waters The Wall 2010–13
5 $517,187,951 AC/DC Black Ice World Tour 2008–10
6 $415,600,000 The Rolling Stones No Filter Tour 2017–19
7 $414,450,000 Metallica WorldWired Tour 2016–present
8 $397,300,000 Pink Beautiful Trauma Tour 2018–19
9 $382,622,767 Bruno Mars 24K Magic World Tour 2017–18
10 $331,204,201 Garth Brooks and Trisha Yearwood The Garth Brooks World Tour with Trisha Yearwood 2014–17
11 $351,874,477 Taylor Swift Taylor Swift's Reputation Stadium Tour 2018
12 $390,296,400 Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band Wrecking Ball World Tour 2012–13
13 $336,637,271 U2 The Joshua Tree Tour 2017 2017
14 $326,516,847 Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band The River Tour 2016 2016–17
15 $339,836,455 Madonna The MDNA Tour 2012
16 $306,464,750 Billy Joel Billy Joel in Concert 2014–present
17 $313,387,833 One Direction Where We Are Tour 2014
18 $297,375,137 Paul McCartney Out There! Tour 2013–15
19 $284,819,786 Bon Jovi Because We Can 2013
20 $273,251,456 Justin Bieber Purpose World Tour 2016–17
21 $272,808,880 Beyoncé The Formation World Tour 2016

Given that Justin Bieber has just announced a tour i'm pretty sure Rammstein will not be the biggest touring act this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_concert_tours#2010s

All the biggest tours since 1980's have been either US or UK artists.

 

[NickGrogan]

Friday I am off to see the premiere of 1917 - all-British, well, except the money of course!

Produced by Neal Street Productions (British), which is owned by ALL3MEDIA (British) which is owned by Liberty Global (Liberty Global is a multinational telecommunications company with headquarters in London, Amsterdam and Denver. - British)

Certainly, they won't be making all the money as Dreamworks is involved too, but I suspect that Sam Mendes will ensure that his own company does well out of it.

 

[NickGrogan]

Your 'facts' are about as bogus as that UK film industry grossing $10bn - try under $2bn!

http://www.weareukfilm.com/facts-and-stats

Value to the economy

Generating a turnover of £10.2bn in 2015, the film industry in the UK continues to generate significant value for the UK economy.

WE ARE UK FILM brings together the UK's film national and regional agencies, producers and sales companies under one umbrella to provide clear information about our outstanding locations, services, films and talent.

 

[thetiger2015]

http://www.weareukfilm.com/facts-and-stats

Generating a turnover of £10.2bn in 2015, the film industry in the UK continues to generate significant value for the UK economy.

What’s your point though? You support Brexit but you’re saying the U.K. film industry is worth £10 billion and is one of the biggest in the world...while we are EU members. The EU has clearly not stifled our potential in film and music. Ed Sheeran is a huge global act and his support acts are also pretty big - Lewis Capaldi for instance.

How will Brexit benefit the creative industries exactly? If we are already the biggest while still an EU member, we can’t get any bigger by leaving as we have the largest market share already?

also, English speaking acts and films tend to do best in English speaking countries. USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, UK etc. Huge markets worth huge investment. German films have a smaller market and smaller investment value as they can’t be marketed overseas so easily. China could be our biggest competitor but they’re still limited by their size and Chinese language is niche in the West. Hence, investment is directed toward films that impact English speaking countries.

 

[Mr D]

Produced by Neal Street Productions (British), which is owned by ALL3MEDIA (British) which is owned by Liberty Global (Liberty Global is a multinational telecommunications company with headquarters in London, Amsterdam and Denver. - British)

Certainly, they won't be making all the money as Dreamworks is involved too, but I suspect that Sam Mendes will ensure that his own company does well out of it.

So headquarters such that the company is British, is Dutch and is American?

 

[NickGrogan]

What’s your point though? You support Brexit but you’re saying the U.K. film industry is worth £10 billion and is one of the biggest in the world...while we are EU members. The EU has clearly not stifled our potential in film and music. Ed Sheeran is a huge global act and his support acts are also pretty big - Lewis Capaldi for instance.

How will Brexit benefit the creative industries exactly? If we are already the biggest while still an EU member, we can’t get any bigger by leaving as we have the largest market share already?

also, English speaking acts and films tend to do best in English speaking countries. USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, UK etc. Huge markets worth huge investment. German films have a smaller market and smaller investment value as they can’t be marketed overseas so easily. China could be our biggest competitor but they’re still limited by their size and Chinese language is niche in the West. Hence, investment is directed toward films that impact English speaking countries.

It was in response to claims by various people that we can't compete with the EU and will all slowly starve to death because the EU is BIG.

My point from my original post is that whilst the EU is big, it is not particularly competitive in any modern industries on a global scale. Partly because it is so big.

Music and movies were mentioned in one sentence, which everyone seems to have jumped on.

The UK did well in films/music before the EU, it did well whilst we've been members of the EU, it will do well when we leave - for all the reasons you've mentioned.

The fact that the EU is big is not relevant to most industries/sectors, but it seems to be the only point that is raised consistently in favour of the EU.

 

[gpietersz]

The EU is big, but it is also relatively less important.

The current 28 member states of the EU are a much smaller proportion of the global economy than 9 states were 40 years ago. The total PPP GDP of current EU members has https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-has-shrunk-percentage-world-economy/

Add to that that our trade with the rest of the world is growing faster than with the EU, and that the EUs biggest economies are very similar to the UK's limiting comparative advantage and the benefits look exaggerated.

 

[MBE2017]

Some latest news, where does project fear hide now?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-b...to-open-uk-offices-after-brexit-idUKKBN1ZJ00D

1000 EU finance companies to open offices in the UK.

 

[simon field]

That won't be good enough for the non-believers!

 

[Mr D]

Some latest news, where does project fear hide now?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-b...to-open-uk-offices-after-brexit-idUKKBN1ZJ00D

1000 EU finance companies to open offices in the UK.

Great.
Do we have enough spare workers?

 

[gpietersz]

Do we have enough spare workers?

If not, they will be able to come in with the new points based system, or under the existing shortage occupations scheme - and anyone with appropriate skills (and no other objection to their living here - i.e. no criminal record etc.) will be able to apply.

 

[Clinton]

If we voted to leave in 2016 the IMF said this could entail

sharp drops in equity and house prices”

The people most likely to vote Leave were older people so the best way to scare them was to tell them the value of their houses would drop. The UK public didn't listen and they voted Leave!

After we voted to leave, the IMF predicted:

the UK will be the fastest growing economy in the G7

Huh?! Quite a turnaround. How did they get it so drastically wrong earlier?

Hmm, it's early days. Wait till next year, they said. Wait till 2017, then you'll see!

In April 2017 they, upgraded the UK 2017 growth forecast to 2%. According to the FT:

Revision reverses nearly all of the downgrades pencilled in after Brexit vote

Okay, okay, we were a bit early predicting the disaster, they said. But wait and see, all this uncertainty will cause major jobs losses and a collapse in confidence.

Of course that didn't come to pass.

Then it was Boris Johnson and hard Brexit that would cause a recession. A hard Brexit would be the final straw they said.

Today, we have this:

The UK economy will outpace the struggling eurozone in the first two years after Brexit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted for the first time.

That's despite the fact that we'll almost certainly have a hard Brexit at the end of this year!

I predicted right from the start that the UK economy wouldn't hit the buffer. All the scary predictions were just to influence the vote in a certain way (and, later, to try and get the Referendum result reversed). They should be ashamed of themselves!

Are any Remainers reassured now that the situation is not as bad as it was made out to be, not as bad as they feared? Or is it the case that when the facts change, you don't change your mind?

 

[thetiger2015]

I predicted right from the start that the UK economy wouldn't hit the buffer. All the scary predictions were just to influence the vote in a certain way (and, later, to try and get the Referendum result reversed). They should be ashamed of themselves!

Are any Remainers reassured now that the situation is not as bad as it was made out to be, not as bad as they feared? Or is it the case that when the facts change, you don't change your mind?

But....we haven’t left yet?

We still don’t know what type of Brexit we are going to get. We don’t know how the U.K. government intend to proceed internationally if there’s a No Deal. They haven’t decided yet. They won’t decide until the 12th hour in about 11 months time and then we will see a soundbite doing the rounds.

Javid has already said he’s not bothered about business and we’ve had since 2016 to suck it up and deal with it. Even though we haven’t been told what ‘IT’ looks like. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp....e/2020/jan/20/sajid-javid-brexit-ft-interview

Save your predictions for when we see the outcome. We are entering the unknown. We might be much better off but the ship is being steered by clowns, so we don’t know which direction they intend to take us in.

 

[Clinton]

But....we haven’t left yet?

FFS!

Where does UKBF find these characters?!

The point was that all the IMF predictions have been wrong so far, starting with the one about what would happen on the day after the Referendum if we voted to Leave.

If you care to check, we've had the results of the Referendum in and we know how the vote went.

And we've had 2017, it's in the past.

And 2018.

And 2019.

 

[Mr D]

FFS!

Where does UKBF find these characters?!

The point was that all the IMF predictions have been wrong so far, starting with the one about what would happen on the day after the Referendum if we voted to Leave.

If you care to check, we've had the results of the Referendum in and we know how the vote went.

And we've had 2017, it's in the past.

And 2018.

And 2019.

Yes we had the vote. We know that, we get that.

What we haven't done yet is leave.

That's still to come. Then we'll know if things are better, worse, or a mix of the two.

 

[Clinton]

Duh, it's still being dim if you haven't understood that their predictions that have failed were predictions for what would happen before we leave.

If they were wrong with that, time and time again, they're as thick as the people who still believe them.

 

[Mr D]

Duh, it's still being dim if you haven't understood that their predictions that have failed were predictions for what would happen before we leave.

If they were wrong with that, time and time again, they're as thick as the people who still believe them.

Hate to tell you this.
Lots of predictions are wrong in advance of something.

Seen a weather forecast recently? Followed its predictions and planned accordingly? Got wet?
That's short term predicting based on massive data collection.

 

[gpietersz]

Javid has already said he’s not bothered about business

Great to hear that. The most encouraging thing I have heard since Boris Johnson's "**** business" comment. The biggest problem we have at the moment is the excessive influence of big business on policy leading to crony capitalism taking us away from free markets.

Lots of predictions are wrong in advance of something.

Lots of predictions, from the same people, all badly wrong in the same direction. Weather forecasts are usually roughly right.

It goes back to well before Brexit. The same arguments and similar models were used to argue that we should join the Euro - something we escaped by luck.

 

[MBE2017]

More UK news.....

New job stats


Wages UP 3.4%, rising over 2% faster than prices

Number of people in FULL-TIME work at record HIGH

Unemployment rate at a historic low

‍Female employment rate at record HIGH

Long-term unemployment more than HALVED

 

[Clinton]

It's all temporary! Wait till we actually leave. The sky will fall on our heads. The whole country will go to the dogs.

The smart people are already leaving. Like Megan and Harry. They know what lies ahead for the UK! That's why Harry is going to live in Canada and take up painting like his dad. He'll live on the sale of his artwork. He'll become the artist formerly known as Prince.

He'll be followed by Prince Charles who's building a tree house in the Amazon as we speak.

Then the Queen will abdicate, move to Australia and make billions from the sale of her diaries. In those diaries will be exposé after exposé about a lot of famous people and it will cause governments to collapse all over the world.

Stock up on food, build an Emergency Room in your house. Do it NOW while you can still import the bits you need from Germany!

 

[Mr D]

More UK news.....

New job stats


Wages UP 3.4%, rising over 2% faster than prices

Number of people in FULL-TIME work at record HIGH

Unemployment rate at a historic low

‍Female employment rate at record HIGH

Long-term unemployment more than HALVED

Great.
But ultimately unsustainable. We run out of people we would employ then we'd then be looking to import more!

 

[Mr D]

It's all temporary! Wait till we actually leave. The sky will fall on our heads. The whole country will go to the dogs.

The smart people are already leaving. Like Megan and Harry. They know what lies ahead for the UK! That's why Harry is going to live in Canada and take up painting like his dad. He'll live on the sale of his artwork. He'll become the artist formerly known as Prince.

He'll be followed by Prince Charles who's building a tree house in the Amazon as we speak.

Then the Queen will abdicate, move to Australia and make billions from the sale of her diaries. In those diaries will be exposé after exposé about a lot of famous people and it will cause governments to collapse all over the world.

Stock up on food, build an Emergency Room in your house. Do it NOW while you can still import the bits you need from Germany!

As a marketing man for prepping you don't come across very well.
Perhaps a different line of work is needed.

Need to work on the hook and the barb. And really push the last paragraph much harder.

 

[simon field]

Javid has already said he’s not bothered about business

Do you honestly believe anyone cares or takes notice of what some bloke says?

 

[MBE2017]

Great.
But ultimately unsustainable. We run out of people we would employ then we'd then be looking to import more!

Not necessarily, salaries would be forced higher due to low unemployment, down to the Gov and business if we want lower paid work. Just as with any business, you decide on what is profitable and what is not.

 

[Mr D]

Not necessarily, salaries would be forced higher due to low unemployment, down to the Gov and business if we want lower paid work. Just as with any business, you decide on what is profitable and what is not.

And that ties to number of people that can be employed in what way?

 

[MBE2017]

And that ties to number of people that can be employed in what way?

Cost of employment will naturally have an effect on the amount of jobs available, better to have well paid full employment than low wage with high immigration, if the population and country is better off going down that route.

 

[Mr D]

Cost of employment will naturally have an effect on the amount of jobs available, better to have well paid full employment than low wage with high immigration, if the population and country is better off going down that route.

So you expect the number of jobs available to go down when cost of employment goes up?
What happened last April? What happened the April before?
Minimum wage had gone up by a higher percentage than average. Will do this April too.

Or is the impact a slowdown in the rate of increase in jobs available?

Still going to run out of employable people at some point from what I see. Heck, for years we have been importing doctors and nurses from overseas to fill vacancies that cannot be filled from existing population.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Over the last 20 odd years companies have had to adjust to big changes in all types of trading conditions, and are far more skilled at using limited resources far better, with this likely to move forward as time goes on

Where companies used to us manual workers to do most jobs in any company, now they find automation answers as a long term cheaper gain, over the past

Take delivery firms, the click and collect is really in its infancy now, but as it grows, the advantages of a van delivering to a couple of sites in a town, offer far greater savings over doing the same 100 drops around that town, so price conscious buyers will in the future be far more likely to use pick and drop over home delivery, thereby reducing both numbers of drivers driving vans and the associated costs of employment

With machines nearly always being cheaper each year more will invest in machines than people, look at farmers who used to have multi staff now running on one or two people with shared equipment with other local farms, Many crops that used to require pickers are now done by machine, as need increases so will pressure be on automating the process and designing equipment to do the job or labor

If you look back at the inefficiencies of labor before the big bank crash and now you see the big difference, look at retail ignoring the closures, but the number of workers in each shop have been reduced vastly which is why we have to wait at tills and nobody ever comes up to you and asks if they can help, they are to busy doing other jobs

 

[KM-Tiger]

Royal Assent granted for the European Union Withdrawal Agreement Act 2020

Has been announced in the HoC today.

So we are leaving .....

 

[Mr D]

Royal Assent granted for the European Union Withdrawal Agreement Act 2020

Has been announced in the HoC today.

So we are leaving .....

Great.
As we voted over 3 and a half years ago.

 

[thetiger2015]

Do you honestly believe anyone cares or takes notice of what some bloke says?

He's the Chancellor, so yes, people do care and take notice of what he says. He's a representative of the UK government and what he says is published in multiple national and international newspapers.

By the same token, why should anyone care or take notice of what Trump says? He's just a bloke too? His tweets seem to kick up a lot of fuss, so....someone must be listening to all those 'blokes'.

 

[DontAsk]

So you expect the number of jobs available to go down when cost of employment goes up?.

Yes. Perhaps the age old predictions of computer/robots doing all the work will become economically viable at last.

 

[thetiger2015]

Great to hear that. The most encouraging thing I have heard since Boris Johnson's "**** business" comment. The biggest problem we have at the moment is the excessive influence of big business on policy leading to crony capitalism taking us away from free markets.

'Big business' or just 'business' - Johnson said 'f...business' he didn't say specifically that he hated large companies, just all businesses in general. It was probably a throw away comment that had no depth anyway, he just knows it will get noticed.

However, It's also important to remember that Johnson was not pro-Leave, he was tilted toward Remain but sceptical of the way the EU was run. It was only when he saw which way the country was tilting that he changed tack and started backing Brexit vocally.

See here:- https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/how-boris-johnson-has-changed-his-views-on-europe

In 2012, he was in favour of changing the terms of our engagement and being less involved, in return for the EU having less control over UK affairs but the whole thing snowballed and we ended up voting to take our ball home instead.

Many other countries in the EU or on the outskirts of it want changes to the control of power by Germany and France. These smaller nations would have been key allies for the UK in renegotiating what we want and what our red lines are, but we didn't bother doing anything with that, we just started shouting at people.

The government should be completely separate from any business influence or interference. You're suggesting that the government has and is being influenced by business at the moment. So, what's changed or going to change? Are we having a complete replacement of all 600 odd MPs to rid ourselves of the corporate overlords that seem to be controlling them?

I also believe that big business has too much influence but I don't see any way that this is going to change after Brexit. It's going to get worse, because the government have got to get deals done and fast. Big businesses will swarm on this opportunity and put massive pressure on our government to get things sorted to avoid bad publicity and negative headlines.

 

[thetiger2015]

Yes. Perhaps the age old predictions of computer/robots doing all the work will become economically viable at last.

What do we do with the people who have been replaced?

It was promised that we could sip tequilas and have almost endless holidays but working hours have increased in the last 20 odd years. The machines are either not picking up the slack or we've just gone and created a whole new set of jobs that didn't need doing 20 years ago.

 

[Mr D]

Yes. Perhaps the age old predictions of computer/robots doing all the work will become economically viable at last.

Push the cost of a job up high enough and replacement / eliminating the job becomes more viable.

 

[Mr D]

What do we do with the people who have been replaced?

It was promised that we could sip tequilas and have almost endless holidays but working hours have increased in the last 20 odd years. The machines are either not picking up the slack or we've just gone and created a whole new set of jobs that didn't need doing 20 years ago.

What do we do with the people replaced? The same thing we've been doing the past 200 plus years.
They find other work.

Working hours increased?
Care to show where that is on the chart?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...k/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/ybuy/lms

Last I looked 38 (1999) was higher than 37 (2019).

 

[thetiger2015]

What do we do with the people replaced? The same thing we've been doing the past 200 plus years.
They find other work.

Working hours increased?
Care to show where that is on the chart?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...k/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/ybuy/lms

Last I looked 38 (1999) was higher than 37 (2019).

I should have gone back further. I was thinking of the promises made in the 70's and 80's, magazines suggesting that by the year 2,000, we will all be lying on a beach because the machines will do all the tasks for us.

This is the kind of thing that was in my head: -https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ty-pay-new-economics-foundation-a9102446.html

Arguably though, still using your data set, the increase and continual improvement of machines and automation has not seen any real improvement in UK working hours for the majority, on average.

So, all these new machines are coming in. Automated warehousing and picking/packing machines. Automated production lines. Yet, working hours have stayed the largely the same.

Yes, people will change to different sectors or qualify in other areas to move jobs but the speed at which machines are taking over is gathering pace. People are being squeezed in to roles that they never thought they'd have to do. Some people can't squeeze, so they get left behind. The pace of technology is likely catching up to the learning curve of people moving to new jobs and learning new skills.