Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
- Start date
I never said it was. I said hatred of foreigners is a form of racism. Not the only one, but it is one. Break it down. what differentiates the hated foreigners from the non- hated. The non-hated are British. I hate you because you are not British is racism.
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- Original Poster
- #5,243
Some people have criticised my predictions, but so far, I'm bang on the money. Unless the Brexiteers feel forced into approving the deal to avoid a Brexit delay, the delay will happen and the EU will be prepared to grant it. They have said as much, and May has today agreed to a Commons vote on the delay as well. Voilà.
The reason is simple, as it always has been: We've bluffed about "no deal is better than a bad deal", but in reality, no deal was never on the cards. Not even close.
And in today's episode of "it's not as simple as it seems", the UK doesn't have enough of the right pallets for exporting to the EU:
https://www.businessinsider.com/bre...y-meeting-over-no-deal-chaos-2019-2?r=US&IR=T
Ain't that the truth.
The reason is simple, as it always has been: We've bluffed about "no deal is better than a bad deal", but in reality, no deal was never on the cards. Not even close.
And in today's episode of "it's not as simple as it seems", the UK doesn't have enough of the right pallets for exporting to the EU:
https://www.businessinsider.com/bre...y-meeting-over-no-deal-chaos-2019-2?r=US&IR=T
Ain't that the truth.
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Yes, the fudge is being cooked, the stitch up sewn.
I guess we should not have expected different from a Remain PM and parliament, disappointing as it is for those who voted tory in 2017 thinking that they would deliver Brexit. In my case never, ever again.
My guess is that we will now remain, and we must gird our loins to start over again.
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The non-hated may well be friends or relatives.
Centuries ago there used to be occasional pogroms against 'different' people. Your neighbour was safe from you, he wasn't safe from people from the surrounding area that didn't know your neighbour.
Hatred can occur within a country too.
Iraq and Kurds 1990s? Tutsi and Hutu Rwanda 1990?
US civil war 1861 - 65?
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- Original Poster
- #5,248
It doesn't really have anything to do with how leave/remain the politicians are.
Brexit is just extraordinarily complex. We've had to start doing things as a country we haven't done in decades. And the Irish border situation still isn't any further forward.
We don't even have enough pallets, for heaven's sake. It's not the broader macro issues that are the only sticking points. There are thousands of other snags that we are not prepared for.
Three years just isn't enough. Nowhere near. That's why we want the implementation period, and even that probably isn't long enough. So if politicians are going to put the national interest first, they cannot allow chaos to ensue just to satisfy some arbitrary deadline.
Go and look at the track record of governments, public bodies and even many businesses. How often have you seen them finish very complicated projects bang on time? Universal Credit, anyone?
This is the most complicated political and civil undertaking since World War 2 that we've attempted to squeeze into a 3/4 year window. It would be mindblowing if it did happen.
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I've had some experience with government projects. Also friends with someone who used to get brought in to oversee parts of government IT projects.
Do you think MP interference after contract signing has any impact on delays to projects?
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T
The Byre
I'm afraid you are right. It is the same issue as Scottish independence - getting people to vote for radical change is very, very hard and people are justifiably sceptical. The last time that a nation voted for radical change, was when Germany voted for Hitler - people are more cautious since then!
I remain a Remainer, but I do realise that the Leave side is being - well, if not betrayed, at least forced to accept something that is either far short of leaving the EU, or nothing at all.
There is no reason that the UK could not make a go of life outside of the EU. The only problem is that this government is so conflicted and so weak and so grossly incompetent, that it is a task that is completely beyond them. As I have said before, we have the most leaderless and weak regime since the reign of Edward II.
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I don't disagree with you on that.
Would be happy to accept even a 5 year implementation period if it was to reach an end state that is totally out of the EU. A huge problem with May's deal is that it doesn't do that. And very nearly 3 years has been wasted already.
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- Original Poster
- #5,255
The problem again boils down to the Irish border situation, which is an extremely difficult question we have yet to find an answer for.
We assume that we just need a few more years to figure something out, but that's not a given. And everyone knows that's not a given. Hence why the backstop can't have a time limit. It could take way longer than expected or even stall entirely.
Personally, I think the public have been allowed to vote on Brexit, but then been encouraged to vote based on an idea that is practically unobtainable. Perhaps it's possible with satellites, but we're talking decades.
And not only has this "no deal is better than a bad deal" bluff encouraged this set of beliefs, but it has also eroded huge amounts of trust and goodwill we had with the EU. We don't trust them, and they don't trust us, which has made the backstop even more vital from the perspective of the EU.
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But if we had an FTA with EU, and I'd venture a huge majority would want that, then we don't need an Irish border?
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- Original Poster
- #5,258
That's the elephant in the room my friend. A free trade agreement doesn't actually solve the problem. In fact, nothing exists in any FTA currently on earth that would solve it.
If you were able to sandwich Canada and the EU together so they share a land border, CETA would not allow a complete lack of customs border. Far from it. Even the most liberal of FTAs still require some tariffs, quotas and regulatory checks.
One key element of this is the country of origin check. Just because goods are coming from the EU, it doesn't mean they originated in the EU. They may fall under a third party remit and therefore require duties paid.
Anything that would make an UK/EU FTA suitable enough to remove a customs border would, in all likelihood, bring it very close to a permanent customs union with full and continued regulatory alignment.
Why do you think so many MPs are aghast at the backstop when it's supposedly an absolute last resort? Because a two year implementation period is nowhere near enough, and it'll be extremely hard to create a FTA that solves the problem either. This means the backstop has a high likelihood of coming into force and staying in force for a long, long time to come.
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The backstop will come in if there is not a suitable agreement put into place acceptable to all parties.
The choice of no backstop appears only relevant if something equally as able is negotiated and put in place.
Currently without a deal for next month what will be the situation post Brexit with the NI / Eire border?
I am not talking what happens if a deal is made. What happens with no deal?
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Based on the flowcharts of Jon Worth, I’ve calculated the (current) probability of various Brexit outcomes:
No Deal 25% chance
General Election 22%
People’s Vote 15%
May’s deal 20%
Never ending spiral 17%
All I’ve done is crunch the numbers based on his (Jon Worth’s) flowchart. It’s still all just subjective guesswork, but a useful starting point for (yet more!) discussion.
You can read (a bit) more on my blog: http://www.amathsteacherwrites.co.uk/what-chance-brexit/
No Deal 25% chance
General Election 22%
People’s Vote 15%
May’s deal 20%
Never ending spiral 17%
All I’ve done is crunch the numbers based on his (Jon Worth’s) flowchart. It’s still all just subjective guesswork, but a useful starting point for (yet more!) discussion.
You can read (a bit) more on my blog: http://www.amathsteacherwrites.co.uk/what-chance-brexit/
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- Original Poster
- #5,261
https://www.irishtimes.com/business...s-border-trade-after-no-deal-brexit-1.3807389
It seems we shall soon find out.
This is yet another reason why no deal isn't on the cards and never was. If it was a serious possibility, we wouldn't be publishing our first set of plans for it with about four weeks to go.
Now you may think that we could have came up with something much earlier to give our "no deal is better than a bad deal bluff" more substance. But the problem is it's such a painful and difficult question to answer that is inevitably going to offend someone.
What do they actually do? Leave the customs border wide open with no end in sight? The problem of enforcing the border without infrastructure will remain and be just as difficult as it was before. Perhaps an open border period would be tolerated for a limited amount of time, but that could last for years unless some infrastructure is built or personnel are placed along it.
There's also the option of invoking GATT article XXIV(3) for a frontier traffic exception, but this would effectively treat Northern Ireland as if it were in the single market and customs union, not the rest of the UK. That's equally unacceptable on many counts and may not be permitted by the EU27 for very long either (or even the UK, for that matter).
No deal won't be allowed to happen for this reason (alongside many others), but hypothetically if it did, I think we'd see a temporary open border followed by a hard border not long afterwards. The third option, depending on the UK's commitment to avoiding a hard border, could be a mad scramble to form some kind of temporary customs union for the EU and the whole of the UK, although this would be very problematic too.
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No-deal Brexit: Nearly third of ‘most critical’ preparations behind schedule, government admits
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit
The government have released a summary of their current "No Deal" Impact Assessment.
"leaving the bloc without a deal could leave the UK economy between 6.3 and 9 per cent smaller after 15 years than it would otherwise have been"
"the latest internal government-wide delivery reporting reveals the scale of risk remaining in the limited time available."
But one of the most concerning points here, and a thing that is the absolute driving force behind Brexiters who aren't rich enough to profit from Brexit:
"Government judges that the reason for this lack of [businesses and individuals preparing] is often because a no-deal scenario is not seen as a sufficiently credible outcome to take action or outlay expenditure"
It's this tautological attitude of "It can't possibly get that bad, because... well it just wouldn't." That's what lets people look at experts and evidence and sneer, "Project Fear!".
Ironically, that thing driving Brexiters is the thing that will most damage the UK if the Cliff-Edge of No Deal happens.
"Much of the information and analysis contained in the paper, released in response to an amendment tabled by the now-Independent Group MPs Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry, was already in the public domain."
This is interesting; much of this information is already available but Soubry is still seeking release of the current document which she has seen via her privy status. It's easy to infer there's more to the paper than just what's in this summary.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit
The government have released a summary of their current "No Deal" Impact Assessment.
"leaving the bloc without a deal could leave the UK economy between 6.3 and 9 per cent smaller after 15 years than it would otherwise have been"
"the latest internal government-wide delivery reporting reveals the scale of risk remaining in the limited time available."
But one of the most concerning points here, and a thing that is the absolute driving force behind Brexiters who aren't rich enough to profit from Brexit:
"Government judges that the reason for this lack of [businesses and individuals preparing] is often because a no-deal scenario is not seen as a sufficiently credible outcome to take action or outlay expenditure"
It's this tautological attitude of "It can't possibly get that bad, because... well it just wouldn't." That's what lets people look at experts and evidence and sneer, "Project Fear!".
Ironically, that thing driving Brexiters is the thing that will most damage the UK if the Cliff-Edge of No Deal happens.
"Much of the information and analysis contained in the paper, released in response to an amendment tabled by the now-Independent Group MPs Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubry, was already in the public domain."
This is interesting; much of this information is already available but Soubry is still seeking release of the current document which she has seen via her privy status. It's easy to infer there's more to the paper than just what's in this summary.
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Just a thought.
If there is a formal vote that no deal cannot happen, and May's deal is rejected again, and there is a vote that May should seek an extension of Article 50, all of which seem very, very likely, what happens if the EU refuses to grant an extension. No 'no deal', no May deal, no extension leaves only one option, which is to revoke Article 50.
If there is a formal vote that no deal cannot happen, and May's deal is rejected again, and there is a vote that May should seek an extension of Article 50, all of which seem very, very likely, what happens if the EU refuses to grant an extension. No 'no deal', no May deal, no extension leaves only one option, which is to revoke Article 50.
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T
The Byre
I have in front of me a survey of UK businesses. 3% claim to be properly prepared for the bidet. 56% see no need whatsoever to prepare for the bidet. The rest state that they should, would or could prepare, but state that they don't know what to prepare for!
As for the projection 6-9% smaller - that's in the future and nobody can predict the future!
In reality, any economic prediction is based on the premise "All things being equal!" and of course, all things never are equal.
HOWEVER
It is becoming more and more difficult to manufacture for the EU if you are based outside the EU. That only works if you are in a very low-wage country and are producing goods whose manufacture is labour intensive. Most goods manufacturing today is capital intensive and is getting more and more capital intensive.
As for the projection 6-9% smaller - that's in the future and nobody can predict the future!
In reality, any economic prediction is based on the premise "All things being equal!" and of course, all things never are equal.
HOWEVER
It is becoming more and more difficult to manufacture for the EU if you are based outside the EU. That only works if you are in a very low-wage country and are producing goods whose manufacture is labour intensive. Most goods manufacturing today is capital intensive and is getting more and more capital intensive.
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Can we please proceed without denials of self-evident truths about how the world runs?
"You cannot predict the future, there's no point trying" is a ridiculous and frankly childish thing to say.
Businesses all plan for the future. Every. Single. One. Some do it on a small scale; bakeries wondering about the next day's weather as to how many loaves they make; clothing shops attending to upcoming fashion trends; financial companies predicting spending behaviour; the ultra wealthy moving wealth out of the UK before Brexit.
What you are talking about dismissing is forecasting by groups who have pretty rigorous scientific methods for collating data and making predictions based on huge swathes of evidence.
It's not infallible and nobody is claiming it to be, but when lots of groups do similar work and deliver a broad consensus, it's worth listening to. If you wish to dismiss evidence because you don't like it, fine, the ukip contingent are here to back you up, but it's not very rational.
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T
The Byre
It is my guess that the study presented the figures with the usual caveats and qualifications - none of which were reported.
Economic forecasts are not really forecasts in the way most people imagine, but trend analyses. The caveats and qualifications are what tells the reader how they are to be interpreted.
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There's a pretty big gap between this ^^^^^ and "nobody can predict the future!"
The former lends weight to data, and statistical and behavioural models upon which the predictions are built. The latter is the foundation for screeching "Project Fear!".
The government is legally obliged to set its budget according to OBR forecasts, so even if those forecasts were empty - which you agree they aren't - at the very least it informs us as to how the government will be deciding policy in the future. And with Brexit (especially No Deal Brexit) causing such a contraction in the economy, there will be less in the public purse to spend which means, despite the government having announced the "end of austerity" almost a dozen times already, it'll continue.
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Austerity would require them to take action to limit or cut budgets.
They could instead borrow, which increases how much has to be spent on servicing the debt and leaves the problem of paying off debt for a future year or future government. Conservatives have been borrowing for some years now as Labour did before them.
Different parties have their own ideas of what spending to do - any one of them in government would have the same problems but some different ideas how to deal with them.
Labour and Conservative governments this century have chosen austerity after the financial problems over a decade ago. Differing ideas of austerity.
Perhaps the next government will tax and spend differently. We may find out in 3 years or maybe this year.
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With the intransigence over the backstop arrangements of the EU to let us leave with dignity, regardless of whatever side you voted for in brexit, and the establishment of a european army, will it lead to the UK leaving Nato in say the next 10 years and just becoming a defence force, which would save a huge amount of money
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Sorry, how does not being in NATO but being in a different organisation for the same aim save money? Besides not having the Americans shoot your people.
Leaving with dignity? Is that a requirement by any side? Or is a working solution better?
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Yet another shambolic decision by this lying government. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47414699
The ever-incompetent Chris Grayling (who made the decisions that have resulted in yesterday's NAO report on the failed probation privatisation) has paid out £33m of our money to avoid being found in court that his department of transport acted illegally in awarding the No-deal Brexit ferry contracts. On top of the £13m he was going to give to a ferry company with no ships. What was it he said? It won't cost us anything if they don't deliver. Well he has now cost us £20m more than that.
You really could not make it up.
The ever-incompetent Chris Grayling (who made the decisions that have resulted in yesterday's NAO report on the failed probation privatisation) has paid out £33m of our money to avoid being found in court that his department of transport acted illegally in awarding the No-deal Brexit ferry contracts. On top of the £13m he was going to give to a ferry company with no ships. What was it he said? It won't cost us anything if they don't deliver. Well he has now cost us £20m more than that.
You really could not make it up.
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