Will Brexit continue after covid lockdown?

[Karimbo]

I'm worried about the impending recession after the lockdown. What's made clear during this crisis is how ill equipped and ill prepared we are as a country. We can't muster something together in the economy to produce PPE and ventilators. The most we've been able to muster up is hand santiser something someone can do in their kitchen.

Our economy is geared towards financial services, we are the money managers of Europe (in essence), we don't produce much, we dont grow much, we don't have a tech industry.

Nigel Farage would like us to beleive that we could still remain and financial hub of the world and become a hong kong or singapore after we leave the EU. My question is, post covid when the financial sector is decimated. When the banking sector is reduced to rubble, when Paris and Berlin are in an equal footing as London. What will entice the banks to resume operation in London and not Berlin or Paris?

What are Brexit voters opinions? The economy is going to be so fragile can we afford something else to rock the boat.

 

[Awinner2]

Too soon to worry about Brexit's outcome. The world is heading down the tubes so let's worry about that first.

 

[gpietersz]

Firstly, Brexit has happened.

The EU is also finding it hard to cope with Coronavirus, so how would being a member have helped? Its institutions are less well suited to dealing with a crisis. The crisis is yet another demonstration of the fully of currency union without political union.

Why would Paris and Frankfurt (not Berlin, by the way) be on an equal footing? They will suffer at least as much damage so will be relatively in a similar position.

 

[alan1302]

I'm worried about the impending recession after the lockdown. What's made clear during this crisis is how ill equipped and ill prepared we are as a country. We can't muster something together in the economy to produce PPE and ventilators. The most we've been able to muster up is hand santiser something someone can do in their kitchen..

Have other EU countries done better? Spain? Italy? Germany? France?

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

I am a remainer but it does not matter if we are in or out anymore .Too much economic damage has been done to economies worldwide !
Let them get on with it now .It wont make any difference

 

[KM-Tiger]

We can't muster something together in the economy to produce PPE and ventilators.

On the contrary. The first CPAP ventilators are due for delivery this weekend, manufactured in the UK by a consortium.

 

[The Byre]

We'll find out in June - that's when a decision to delay or not has to be made.

With the World's economy going into a tailspin of a recession (or possibly worse) and the US facing C19 going completely out of control, fartarsing about as we dance the Hokey-Kokey over Brexit seems a million miles away and rather irrelevant!

 

[Clinton]

The EU is also finding it hard to cope with Coronavirus, so how would being a member have helped? Its institutions are less well suited to dealing with a crisis. The crisis is yet another demonstration of the fully of currency union without political union.

They are not just "finding it hard". The whole EU project could collapse as a result of coronavirus! There are several articles across numerous media about the existential threat this presents to the project.

The first things that nation states did when the crisis hit was to take care of themselves - they restricted export of certain goods (especially medial products), locked borders (so much for free movement), went fully nationalistic.

The EU as an institution was slow to respond initially but it did step up the efforts later (well, quicker than Boris Johnson did anyway). However, there's already a blame game in progress with fingers pointing at Italy and Spain.

Ah, Italy and Spain. Italy was a basket case even before Corvid-19. They're more of a basket case now. Unlike governments in the UK and the US, they can't raise money from the markets by issuing bonds. Nobody wants their bonds. Take a look at the spread in yields between German and Italian bonds!

So they wanted the ECB to issue EU bonds, Coronabonds. They got laughed out of town. The rich countries don't want to share this potential liability.

Italy got more help from China that it got from the EU! Given current EU rules on budget deficits, Italy may no longer even qualify to be in the EU!

Our economy is geared towards financial services, we are the money managers of Europe (in essence), we don't produce much, we dont grow much, we don't have a tech industry.

Some Remainers will always find things to be pessimistic about. And if they don't, there's always the Remain media willing to step in and promote some fake news.

Financial services is huge, but you make it sound like that's all we do! That sector accounts for 7% of UK GDP. Do you know that we are huge in technology? Fintech firms in the UK last year attracted more money than the top 10 EU countries combined.

And we're big on biotech.

And general tech, like chips (ARM is a UK company!)

Manufacturing, despite all the noise, accounts for over 11% of our GDP, more than finance. And the stuff we manufacture is high end stuff, tons and tons of intellectual property involved. (We could easily ramp up to make Chinese type plastic toothbrushes if ever needed).

That you mention Nigel Farage demonstrates that you're still stuck in that old personality based mindset. If an opinion comes from someone you dislike, it is automatically untrue. Ditch that small minded thinking.

And stop bashing the UK. Please. This is not the time!

 

[RobinBHM]

Firstly, Brexit has happened

No it hasnt.
The UK has left the political institutions, is all.

The mess that will come from regulatory divergence hasnt started.

Personally I think the UK should leave on a no trade deal, which will front load economic damage directly to the feet of Johnson who can own it lock stock and barrel.

 

[alan1302]

And general tech, like chips (ARM is a UK company!)

Was, but no longer. Owned by the Japanese SoftBank Group since 2016.

 

[Karimbo]

Clinton, I hope you're right.

Fintech is just financial services in an app form though.

 

[manwithnonames]

And general tech, like chips (ARM is a UK company!)

....sold to Softbank....a Japanese Company ...in 2016.

Once you scratch the surface of many well known "UK companies" outside of finance/lending - you find foreign ownership.

 

[prophet01]

...The first things that nation states did when the crisis hit was to take care of themselves...

In a nutshell why the EU experiment was, and will always be, doomed to fail...in my view.

 

[DontAsk]

What are Brexit voters opinions?

That you are talking rubbish

The economy is going to be so fragile can we afford something else to rock the boat.

There's nothing especially bad about the UK economy.

 

[fisicx]

We can't muster something together in the economy to produce PPE and ventilators.

Yes we have.

Our economy is geared towards financial services...

No it's not.

we don't produce much, we dont grow much, we don't have a tech industry.

Yes we do.

 

[DontAsk]

We can't muster something together in the economy to produce PPE and ventilators. The most we've been able to muster up is hand santiser something someone can do in their kitchen.

Utter rubbish! Just watched a very good report on the BBC, waiting for the daily update, abouot how UK manufacturers have stepped up to the mark.

A few days ago theer was a similar report about a company in Northern ireland that had switched to making surgical scrubs.

Where do you get your world view?

 

[Clinton]

Clinton, I hope you're right.

Don't hope. Do better than that. Stop reading the dismal, British-bashing Remainer media that you're currently reading.

Try a detox.

Completely disassociate from them (and the platforms that use your previous browsing to serve you only that which keeps you with the bubble).

And, BTW, despite financial services being just 7% of the economy, we are still the "money managers" of Europe, to use your own words. We are Europe's investment bank, financial centre, insurance hub, clearing supremos.

That's a kick ass big deal. Especially when times get hard

 

[Mr D]

I'm worried about the impending recession after the lockdown. What's made clear during this crisis is how ill equipped and ill prepared we are as a country. We can't muster something together in the economy to produce PPE and ventilators. The most we've been able to muster up is hand santiser something someone can do in their kitchen.

Our economy is geared towards financial services, we are the money managers of Europe (in essence), we don't produce much, we dont grow much, we don't have a tech industry.

Nigel Farage would like us to beleive that we could still remain and financial hub of the world and become a hong kong or singapore after we leave the EU. My question is, post covid when the financial sector is decimated. When the banking sector is reduced to rubble, when Paris and Berlin are in an equal footing as London. What will entice the banks to resume operation in London and not Berlin or Paris?

What are Brexit voters opinions? The economy is going to be so fragile can we afford something else to rock the boat.

Compared to the over 2 dozen other countries in the EU we are where in the world manufacturing tables?
Bottom? 2nd from bottom?
Or near the top?

We have considerable manufacturing. Lots of places have industrial estates where companies build stuff. We also have a number of car plants - lots of cars made in Britain.

Bit late to try stopping Brexit. Needed to do it almost 4 years ago.

 

[RobinBHM]

We also have a number of car plants - lots of cars made in Britain

They are foreign owned assembly lines which rely on EU JIT supply chains. A no trade deal will mean the end of car manufacture in this country.

 

[DontAsk]

They are foreign owned assembly lines which rely on EU JIT supply chains. A no trade deal will mean the end of car manufacture in this country.

That will be why Nissan announced £400 million to go into Sunderland just under a month ago, despite Brexit, covid and whatever other bogeymen you want to try and conjur up.

Did you go to the same school as Karimbo?

 

[Mr D]

They are foreign owned assembly lines which rely on EU JIT supply chains. A no trade deal will mean the end of car manufacture in this country.

So these companies have not pulled out yet for what reason?

 

[Maxwell83]

The only saving grace this C19 crisis had bought me was a reprieve from Brexit debates. And now thats gone too

For me the ship has sailed. I wanted to remain, we lost, we're leaving, lets get on with it. The chance to debate whether it was the right decision or not has gone. It will be one for the academics to assess in 100 years.

 

[Lizzyohara]

BrExit will still happen but the governments focus will change. No longer will it sell the NHS to Trump but invest in it because any trade deal involving NHS will be a vote loser and anger the population.

 

[Clinton]

No longer will it sell the NHS to Trump ....

 

[Mr D]

BrExit will still happen but the governments focus will change. No longer will it sell the NHS to Trump but invest in it because any trade deal involving NHS will be a vote loser and anger the population.

Who would want to buy the NHS?
We cannot even sell it in Europe.

Cannot recall any country who has copied the NHS entirely. Cannot offhand think of what bits anyone has decided are great and copied.
The NHS palliative care? Even the Brits don't want that!

Oh and next vote is in 4 years and 8 months. Pretty sure Boris for one isn't worried about fantasy vote changers so far out.

 

[MBE2017]

Yes, it will go ahead.

 

[Darren_Ssc]

Yes, it will go ahead.

We dodged a bullet. Now watch 'em all fight like rats in sack.

 

[RobinBHM]

That will be why Nissan announced £400 million to go into Sunderland just under a month ago, despite Brexit, covid and whatever other bogeymen you want to try and conjur up.

Did you go to the same school as Karimbo?

Wrong

The Japanese carmaker said the new Qashqai would be built in the North East site back in 2016 - after Government reassurances that Brexit would not hit competitiveness, notably the UK would stay in SM

This is about sunk costs, Nissan started building a £60m press 2 years ago.

70% of Sunderland production is exported to EU, so a no deal brexit would make it unsustainable long term.

 

[Alison Moore]

They will probably delay Brexit - but it will happen. If there is a EU left to Brexit from that is!

 

[alan1302]

Wrong

The Japanese carmaker said the new Qashqai would be built in the North East site back in 2016 - after Government reassurances that Brexit would not hit competitiveness, notably the UK would stay in SM

This is about sunk costs, Nissan started building a £60m press 2 years ago.

70% of Sunderland production is exported to EU, so a no deal brexit would make it unsustainable long term.

News report from earlier this month saying Nissan were still investing £400 million into the site - are you saying that is not true?

https://www.ft.com/content/fe88eec2-5f9e-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

 

[gpietersz]

Unlike governments in the UK and the US, they can't raise money from the markets by issuing bonds. Nobody wants their bonds. Take a look at the spread in yields between German and Italian bonds!

That is one of the (many) problems of currency union without matching political union. The Euro was originally supposed to include the whole EU (with transition periods where necessary) and it was supposed to be quickly followed by greater political union. Failure to achieve those leaves the EU very vulnerable to economics shocks and to internal wrangling.

Ideally what should happen now is that the EU should issue Euro bonds and distribute the money. It should have powers to tax (and to compel the ECB to print money to pay them if necessary - unless it already has that power) to pay the bonds.

 

[Mr D]

They will probably delay Brexit - but it will happen. If there is a EU left to Brexit from that is!

If EU is to breakup (not impossible) then Brexit would leave us better able to cope. We at least had an idea about leaving.

 

[Aleksander_Gramm]

It's just one man's opinion...

France and Germany tried establish an empire, but they have failed.

 

[DontAsk]

Wrong

Ah, so you di dgo to the same school as Karimbo.

As we used to say on Usenet PLONK!

 

[gpietersz]

No longer will it sell the NHS to Trump but invest in it because any trade deal involving NHS will be a vote loser and anger the population.

So something that was not going to happen is now not going to happen for exactly the reason it was not going to happen in the first place, but even more so?

 

[Mr D]

So something that was not going to happen is now not going to happen for exactly the reason it was not going to happen in the first place, but even more so?

Pretty much yes.

 

[SillyBill]

It is absurd to be even talking about the benefits of being in the EU now. The Italians and Spanish will be crippled even more than us coming out of this, they will need cash and it will be Northern Europe that has to put their hands in their pockets. If they don't the whole project could unravel. Chances are if we were still in we'd have been asked to be making a larger "solidarity" contribution alongside the Germans, Dutch, Swedes etc. And I am sure that would have been popular with an already Eurosceptic population, not to mention our own finances being shot to pieces..

 

[gpietersz]

@SillyBill has a good point, but does anyone know whether any of the continuing obligations in the withdrawal agreement might mean the UK will have to contribute to EU bailouts?

 

[Mr D]

It is absurd to be even talking about the benefits of being in the EU now. The Italians and Spanish will be crippled even more than us coming out of this, they will need cash and it will be Northern Europe that has to put their hands in their pockets. If they don't the whole project could unravel. Chances are if we were still in we'd have been asked to be making a larger "solidarity" contribution alongside the Germans, Dutch, Swedes etc. And I am sure that would have been popular with an already Eurosceptic population, not to mention our own finances being shot to pieces..

Some people don't accept there was a vote.

 

[alan1302]

Some people don't accept there was a vote.

Don't think I have ever come across someone that does not think there was a vote.