What does the near future hold?

[Quicksilver]

Quite a common subject, but every business owner I speak to at the minute is booming, like myself.
I work within the construction industry and everyone seems to have been overwhelmed with work over the last 2/3 months. I'm personally feeling quite anxious and have a horrible feeling that the sudden increase is leading to another crash early next year.
Any views or opinions would be greatly appreciated, how is everyone on a wider scale finding things?

(Hopefully I'm wrong and it's a return to 4/5 years ago, not 2 years ago!)

 

[DancingWithPoodles]

there is no recession there is no economic crisis its all in your heads because the most powerful people in the world want you to think that so they can buy your properties and businesses for pittance and make a killing and become even richer

 

[Quicksilver]

Ok....... Are the most powerful people in the world going to make everyone think there is another recession and economic crisis so that they can buy more properties and businesses for a pittance.
Or, are they going to let everyone think everything is fine again and thus next year will carry on the same as the last half of this year? Which for me and people I know personally is extremely promising.

 

[zeigfred_tom]

I don't think recession will be a problem. I agree with DancingWithPoodles that there is no economic crisis, generally in the world. Here are some things I know, there will be a lot of young rich people from now until the coming years. Population in every nation will boom due to healthier life styles of today. Social Media will be an important part in life due to its efficiency in modern businesses and lifestyle. China or Russia or maybe both will wake. Technology will get even better, FAST. Competition with gadgets today - meaning gadgets will become cheaper and cheaper because of the rapid development and updates. Well, I may be wrong but these are what I think and notice nowadays. So one thing's for sure, recession and economic crisis will be out of the picture for the near future.

 

[anita85]

Your reservations are true but the bad time for economy is over. Many big countries were facing recession in the world. But now it's ok.

 

[I Love Spreadsheets]

there is no recession there is no economic crisis its all in your heads because the most powerful people in the world want you to think that so they can buy your properties and businesses for pittance and make a killing and become even richer

Got to agree but I think it is for different reasons. I think the stories of down turn and recession is down to the media looking for shock stories and if they cant find a story they add a spin on existing stories. What ever you dont believe these stories, it could cost you your business.

Last year was a really bad year for me and I put it down to the recession, however it wasnt down to the recession it was down to my marketing. As soon as I changed my marketing things took off again.

 

[gordano]

What business owners see in terms of growth will vary by their respective industry / niche and geography.

There are also some sectors which are lead indicators for economic recovery, typically those with large infrastructure that take time to establish. One example may be commercial property development. But again this varies by geography.

 

[thebigIAM]

I read most of this thread with surprise. I wonder what part of the country most of the posters are in?

We've had a mainly indifferent year. Lost loads during last December's snow. Had a couple of bright spots in February (unusually, normally a bad month for us), a shockingly bad May/June, and a slight uptick since then. We've hacked back overheads on a massive scale. We're offering customers more for their money because ours is a non essential spend among a clientele where cost is always important. We're working harder for our money, but in the past month or so we havebeen making money.

But everywhere I go at the moment, the conversation is jobs. Who's just been made redundant? Who's just had their hours cut? Who has been applying for what? I can think of five people immediately who have had bad news work wise. I went to a barbecue yesterday and that's all I heard all afternoon.

And if it's not jobs dominating the conversation, it's energy prices and the soaring cost of food.

I don't think this is just down to the moaners. I think this is an indication of something that is about to feed through the system.

 

[adventurelife]

If anyone thinks we are out of trouble think again we have not even entered trouble yet.

Basic mistakes being made of small businesses having increased revenue thinking that means the economy is okay.

Look at the big numbers of countries GDP , Annual Borrowings and Debt and you would have to be daft or a fool to not understand the world economy is at its worst since WW2.

Of course opportunity abounds in situations like this but do not think for one minute that because you are up for a month or to things are fine.

Winners in every climate but this one is much worse than most understand. It is a knife edge we are walking of countries going bust. If counties go bust businesses will follow on mass

 

[toddle2u]

If anyone thinks we are out of trouble think again we have not even entered trouble yet.

Couldn't agree more. The poters who say there is no recession are thinks are looking up are deluded. Double dip on its way!

 

[directmarketingadvice]

I read most of this thread with surprise. I wonder what part of the country most of the posters are in?

I was wondering what planet most of them are on.

Steve

 

[Creditguard]

there is no recession there is no economic crisis its all in your heads because the most powerful people in the world want you to think that so they can buy your properties and businesses for pittance and make a killing and become even richer

Everyone is worry due to the downfall of economy and I agree with you that powerful people need more and more and they also buy properties to become more and more rich but think the economy crisis is over and every country is try to do bust for their peoples, the economy bad time is over and now economy show good sign.

 

[thebigIAM]

Steve, you literally made me laugh out loud. Thanks.

 

[Quicksilver]

So, mixed opinions on here!
What industries does everyone work in?
I have noticed that 2 of the posts pointing towards further economic trouble are from someone in marketing and another that helps struggling buisnesses.
Could it be that people don't require these services at the present time?
As stated, I work with-in the construction industry which has probably been the most reported industry (along with the high street) to be affected over the last few years and it now seems to be booming. I have been quieter than before the 'recession' but never struggled for work, I don't do any advertising/marketing etc our work does this for us.
With regards to the post that says the recession is just media drama, even if that is the case are the media going to carry on with the scare stories? That's a different arguement as to what caused the problem, not if there is an actual problem (because there quite obviously was or is however it started).
Keep ploughing on, work harder than ever before, do everything you possibly can for your customers, never give up, and you'll be amazed where you end up.

 

[Matthew_28]

So, mixed opinions on here!
What industries does everyone work in?
I have noticed that 2 of the posts pointing towards further economic trouble are from someone in marketing and another that helps struggling buisnesses.
Could it be that people don't require these services at the present time?
As stated, I work with-in the construction industry which has probably been the most reported industry (along with the high street) to be affected over the last few years and it now seems to be booming. I have been quieter than before the 'recession' but never struggled for work, I don't do any advertising/marketing etc our work does this for us.
With regards to the post that says the recession is just media drama, even if that is the case are the media going to carry on with the scare stories? That's a different arguement as to what caused the problem, not if there is an actual problem (because there quite obviously was or is however it started).
Keep ploughing on, work harder than ever before, do everything you possibly can for your customers, never give up, and you'll be amazed where you end up.

Hi Quicksilver,

Sorry for going off topic, but I'm in the construction industry too, I'm a QS, Estimator, and Draughtsman (kind of jack of all trades) - I just wondered what role /sector you were in?

I have been in the industry for over 10 years now, most of my experience comes from working with Main Contractors. I set up as self employed from December last year and doing really well so far (touch wood) but now looking for a different direction and thinking about forming my own contracting/construction/project management company. I enjoy working for myself but obviously earning potential is limited to the number of hours in a day.

Cheers
Matt

 

[gordano]

Some interesting perspectives here. Clearly many factors at play, not least industry sector /niche and geography.

Our company continues to see significant growth. But this is not because our overall UK market is growing (a large part of our business is screening employees for new hires), our growth is also down to growing our market share.

Personally I am an optimist, seeking how to enhance the product/service, its not just about cutting costs to maintain share or grow business. It is often possible to add value in the service provided without increasing costs to deliver.

 

[directmarketingadvice]

So, mixed opinions on here!
What industries does everyone work in?
I have noticed that 2 of the posts pointing towards further economic trouble are from someone in marketing and another that helps struggling buisnesses.
Could it be that people don't require these services at the present time?

No, marketing is in demand.

Perhaps, instead of regarding me as the "marketing" guy, you might want to classify me as the guy who spent around 9 years working in the financial sector - including a stint of a few years working in investment.

Steve

 

[Quicksilver]

Hi Matt,
I am a self employed tiler, I do have people that work for me (both employed but mostly sub-contractors). I am in the same position as you, in that my earnings are limited to the number of hours in a day! I am at the point now where I need to stop doing the physical work and concentrate on 'running a business'. I have the work and workers lined up to do the work, I'm just trying to get a feel for if this is a temporary boom or if its going to be this for a few years. I have the opportunity to build something of substance, and I believe now is the time.
I also believe that it was easy a few years back and even the laziest of people with no drive and who were stuck in a comfort zone could be relatively successful. The people that have started and made it work during the recession and those that have kept their heads down, not wasted time moaning and fought through have been relatively safe. BECAUSE WE HAD TO MAKE IT WORK! No one else.
Obviously we can't physically create work, but it is out there and I'm amazed by the amount of people who I offer work to (knowing they are struggling) but they just don't bother to put the effort in to reply quickly, type up or call back with an estimate or even just let me know that they aren't interested. They're probably the same people that say 'lifes not fair'!

 

[iArtist]

Business is booming in the construction trade because people can nolonger afford to move house in order to improve their living conditions, so instead they are more likely to opt for extensions, loft conversions and conservatories. As long as the recession lasts my friend, you will be busy!!

 

[Quicksilver]

Steve,
So you believe that there is further trouble ahead, but you are busy yourself due to the continued struggle?
Bit confused as to your thoughts? I wasn't having a go, just trying to get a clear overall picture, because I believe we're all affected no matter what proffession or location we're in. The recession effected everybody to some degree, therefore an upturn would surely have a positive effect to some degree? There has always been more prosperous areas, but living costs, house prices etc reflect this against earnings in each area.

 

[Gillie]

Inflation hits a new high due to petrol, fuel costs, food and clothing and now stands at the highest it has been in the last three years. Unemployment is also up just under 2.5 million. Gas, electricity rose 5.1% since last year alone.

The over 50's are being badly hit - those who were once the ones of high disposable income - they are paying the high prices and yet their savings are worth nothing - in fact - due to inflation, they are actually making a loss if they have a simple savings account.

Lets not forget as well that British Gas and Scottish Power raised their rates as well by upwards of 18% last month - figures that have yet to hit many but will do over the coming months.

National shop vacancy stands at 14.3% - so anyone in retail is being hit as well.

Wise up!

 

[Quicksilver]

C. Logos,

Your comment is one that I hear quite regularly. But it is quite the opposite. People aren't as easily able to borrow the money or willing to risk spending savings to do this type of work as they were a few years back. I think the 'middle class' with spare cash are also quite consevative and playing it safe.

 

[Matthew_28]

Hi Matt,
I am a self employed tiler, I do have people that work for me (both employed but mostly sub-contractors). I am in the same position as you, in that my earnings are limited to the number of hours in a day! I am at the point now where I need to stop doing the physical work and concentrate on 'running a business'. I have the work and workers lined up to do the work, I'm just trying to get a feel for if this is a temporary boom or if its going to be this for a few years. I have the opportunity to build something of substance, and I believe now is the time.
I also believe that it was easy a few years back and even the laziest of people with no drive and who were stuck in a comfort zone could be relatively successful. The people that have started and made it work during the recession and those that have kept their heads down, not wasted time moaning and fought through have been relatively safe. BECAUSE WE HAD TO MAKE IT WORK! No one else.
Obviously we can't physically create work, but it is out there and I'm amazed by the amount of people who I offer work to (knowing they are struggling) but they just don't bother to put the effort in to reply quickly, type up or call back with an estimate or even just let me know that they aren't interested. They're probably the same people that say 'lifes not fair'!

I totally agree.

I can see the construction industry gradually being resucitated and coming back to life, better days are definately ahead. I would say towards the back end of next year or beginning of 2013. I think times will come again when contractors will have more choice with regards to what work they take on.

In my role of Quantity Surveyor I deal with quite a few subcontractors and tradesmen now (looking after their accounts/estimating/valuations etc) and often get told the only way I will increase my earning potential and make serious money is either by employing others to do the work for me, or by selling a product(s) in bulk.

I'm not sure if you have noticed, I believe you have touched upon it, but over the past few years I'm not sure if it's just my perception but the industry seems to have attracted rather alot of "numpties", and /or people who just can't do their job properly/efficiently. I used to notice it more in the tradesmen out on site but it seems to be becoming more common in the offices as well now (e.g. main contractors, suppliers, subcontractors), alot of these people are meant to be professionals and I dread to think what sort of salaries they're on.

I deal with a lot of suppliers that just don't return your call or don't provide quotations when needed - and I just think wow... don't these people want the work in these "tough economic times"... the sad truth possibly is that these people are merely employees and possibly don't care that deeply about the businesses within which they work - but I just don't understand that type of mentallity as without that business then they don't have a job and thus don't earn a wage... very odd outlook some people have but perhaps they just don't consider the bigger picture.

Regards,
Matt

 

[directmarketingadvice]

Steve,
So you believe that there is further trouble ahead, but you are busy yourself due to the continued struggle?
Bit confused as to your thoughts?

I'm not sure why.

Firstly, businesses contract, so they need marketing.

Secondly, I think we've barely seen the impact of the financial crisis. So what's happening now isn't what will be happening in the future.

Thirdly, most of last year, I had my doors closed to new business. This year, I'm still being picky in choosing who to work with, but I've been taking on new clients around 2/3 of the time.

Finally, I don't know why people have been talking about "the recovery" over the last few years. Maybe they should study history - markets don't go all the way down in one go, there are corrections along the way.

A real "recovery" will be when the economy can stand on its own two feet, not when the government postpones the symptoms by reckless spending that simply steals from the future.

Steve

 

[Quicksilver]

Matt,
I have noticed the uselessness!
For example, a supplier I use has taken on a new staff member (not sure of their title) but said person 'was' a bank manager, decided to put a special offer on a particular product, but didn't have any of that product in stock!!
Now, I may be wrong here, but wouldn't it occur to you that if somethings on special offer then people are going to want it? or at least the aim of the special offer is to sell some of it?

Good luck (I know it's helped me along the way), with the right attitude you'll be fine.

All the best,
Quick

 

[Quicksilver]

Steve,

Thats true. The boom wasn't 'normal', but neither was the last few years recession. Maybe the combination of the massive high to a fairly sudden low, helped along by the media, is why it's as bad as it is/was. We didn't slowly drop, level out at the 'normal' and then drop a bit more.

 

[iArtist]

C. Logos,

Your comment is one that I hear quite regularly. But it is quite the opposite. People aren't as easily able to borrow the money or willing to risk spending savings to do this type of work as they were a few years back. I think the 'middle class' with spare cash are also quite consevative and playing it safe.

Statistics show otherwise.

I wrote (and researched) an article on this a couple of yrs or so ago when I was hired as an article writer for a money news site.

The extra money for the conversions comes from the fact that they bought their homes for £60k and now they're worth £300k (for example) so they have remortgaged.

 

[Hedgie]

For those of you in the construction industry can I just ask which shop you got your rose tinted glasses from?

The construction industry is in a mess and will be for quite some time. There are hundreds of surveyors, technicians, architects and tradesmen who are struggling to get crumbs of work at the moment never mind having a 'boom' in work. As Gillie said Wise Up !

 

[Bigal1264]

Where are you guys in the Construction Industry that are doing well located? In my area demand is very low (& falling), margins are poor & contractors are going bust every other day!! Locally the Construction Industry is on its backside.

 

[Quicksilver]

C. Logos: Re-mortgaging to total renovate is what was happening a few years ago. I do quite a few quotes for people thinking of doing this but they don't very often go ahead with the work or take months to actually get started. I assume, because it was easier to re-mortgage then.

Hedgie:I am personally having a 'boom' at the moment and most of my contacts are experiencing the same. I do hear about a lot of people with out any work, but these are the same people that don't return calls or won't travel for more than half an hour etc to get work. They have no-one but themselves to blame for having no work. Maybe I'll let you borrow my rose tinted glasses one day, they do make the distance look a bit foggy but close up everything looks rather good.

Bigal: I had a quick look at your web-site, looks nice, I would quite happily buy from you based on the appearance etc. But, I clicked on the 'buy timber online' link and was told this was due mid december 2009! I hope you take constructive criticism well because if I were you I would get this done ASAP, at best take the date off your website. If your that short for work, learn to do it yourself. No 'I can't afford it at the minute' excuses.
Would I also be right in thinking that the scottish economy is generally slower anyway? and would therefore be one of the last to make a recovery? Maybe the fact that here on the south coast we are booming is a sign of whats coming your way! I hope it does and after you've finished with my rose tinted spectacles, pass them onto hedgie.

Stay positive!

 

[hmmm]

hmmm
2.5 million unemployed
isnt that less than in the 80s ?
are there more people in the country compared to then?
maths tell me we cant be as bad as the 80s
so whats the story?

 

[Quicksilver]

hmmm, I'm to young to have had any memorable effect from the 80's! and the 90's really!

 

[Matthew_28]

[Takes off rose tinted spectacles..]

I guess I just stick to a few facts, take them how you want:

- I am a self employed Quantity Surveyor and Draughtsman and work for various subcontractors and main contractors in the construction industry.
- I am 30 years old and based in West Yorkshire.
- So far from mid January 2011 to end of August 2011 I had turned over £32,800 working an average of 4 days per week.

The clients who I'm currently working for seem to be doing okay, touch wood it continues. But getting any where near back to how it was I feel it will be early-mid 2013.

Personally I think I'm doing okay and have half a dozen clients offering work over the next couple of months, no doubt will drop off around December and I will probably take a holiday.

[Puts rose tinted spectacles back on..]

Cheers
Matt

 

[Gillie]

hmmm
2.5 million unemployed
isnt that less than in the 80s ?
are there more people in the country compared to then?
maths tell me we cant be as bad as the 80s
so whats the story?

Were it that simple!!!

The population in the 80's was also smaller than it is now.

1982 5.2% of the population were unemployed
July 2011 7.9% of the population were unemployed.

In those latest figures - there is also a section missing - well you know the Gov like to try and massage the figures.

The figures for 2011 do NOT include 16-18 year olds who are unemployed as they are not allowed to collect income support or job seekers if they are not at college or do not have a job - they are basically missing in action!

 

[hmmm]

3million with less people compared to 2.5 with more, to me that seems percentage wise less.
lets not forget in the 80s many 16 to 18 year old were on a yts earning £25 a week hardly the earth even back then.

 

[Gillie]

3million with less people compared to 2.5 with more, to me that seems percentage wise less.
lets not forget in the 80s many 16 to 18 year old were on a yts earning £25 a week hardly the earth even back then.

The figures I quote are easily backed up - all produced by Dept of Work over the years and held on the Gov Stats site - so their figures!

The Gov are always massaging the figures - especially Maggie and one would think then that certain sections were added and taken away when it suited!

 

[iArtist]

3million with less people compared to 2.5 with more, to me that seems percentage wise less.
lets not forget in the 80s many 16 to 18 year old were on a yts earning £25 a week hardly the earth even back then.

Haha, I was on a YTS!! Cor those were the days!

Working 40hrs a week for £25. Oh the joy...

 

[Gillie]

Have a read of this site - it makes for interesting reading - but careful you don't get too gloomy though!

 

[hmmm]

i was on a yts also.
gillie im not doubting the figures you gave from where you got them.im just saying i remember the figure being talked about back in the 80s and the unemployment figures were higher than now

 

[Surge Computers]

Business is so unpredictable and so many things influence it that you can't predict what is going to happen in the future. However, i have always thought that e-commerce is going to grow, and business will rely on the internet a lot more than they currently do. Some shops will loose out and fail, and others will obviously stand tall if there's a USP in there somewhere.